Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom.
This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago? Are you predicting a bottom below that? Understand that my time context is the entire bubble collapse, which I expect to be roughly three months after the peak on April 10. Yes, $50 is not the bottom - that is the nature of a speculative financial bubble collapse. Evidence shows that the bottom is deeper than most expect and takes about as long to occur as the bubble took to form in the first place. I believe the bubble started January 7, 2013 at $13.50. The underlying trend I think allows for a bottom well under $50. |
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Sorry, short of time - preparing for a good night's sleep with buy orders in place. It make take a few more days to complete this capitulation, to the degree that this capitulation is indeed similar to the corresponding one back in 2011. Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom. |
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Still easy to get bitcoins to Mt. Gox for sale. I would say that the bank holidays make it harder to get dollars to Mt. Gox for purchases. Therefore, on balance, the price is negatively affected.
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$100 wall held. But maybe the remaining part of the wall is held by the seller who wants to corral sizable bids above $100 for later consumption.
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The corresponding capitulation from the June 2011 bubble took six days to reach a bottom 55% below the start of the pattern. To the degree that the comparison is a guide, $65.25 four days from now is a target. I believe that charting explains and predicts how the price gets there from here.
A confounding factor is the decision of those with deep pockets, aka "manipulators". If someone with $10M+ to play with (VCs, Winkletoes) decide to support the price, they can keep it above $100, no problem, while increasing their BTC holdings significantly. And there are good business reasons why they may choose to do so. Ahh yes, but the business reasons for providing liquidity to buyers are greater for big money traders than the good business reasons you describe - which amount to paying more than is fair to sellers. |
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 Breaking back down below $105 could be an important confirmation of the resumption of the capitulation from $145. |
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I was thinking more like landscape mapping with different colours.
Then the evolution of the walls over time would become a valley (or a canyon) and the price would be a river flowing in it. EM had the idea posted here that the 3 D chart should denote age of the limit order by color [or intensity]. |
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I think bitcoin is going up. The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one. |
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The corresponding capitulation from the June 2011 bubble took six days to reach a bottom 55% below the start of the pattern. To the degree that the comparison is a guide, $65.25 four days from now is a target. I believe that charting explains and predicts how the price gets there from here.
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That three day run up Mon-Wed was just too much for me. I was convinced it was over. Exactly the same for me. |
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Right! Its easy, and only six confirmations away, to move bitcoin from some big-money wallet into Mt. Gox for sale. Harder and slower to get fiat in for purchase. |
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22 days after the April 10 peak I believe that this is the second day of the first and greatest capitulation of Bitcoin Bubble 2. $110 marks the upper limit of what I have dubbed 'The Bagholder's Ball'. Below this point, a very substantial portion of all April - May bitcoin purchases show a nominal loss. Consequently, trading bitcoin holders sell out according to their respective degrees of temporal risk acceptance - and the last ones to sell, well - they lose the most.
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I have managed to increase my family wealth by 41% APR, over the course of 10 years. Commendable - and a great example for your clients. nobody has ever taken my puts even though they are reasonably priced. After this bubble collapse is fully played out, I too, would like to consider writing options, but on MPOE via CoinBr. There is more liquidity on an exchange as contrasted to OTC, of course. |
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The bottom was $104 not $107. Sorry for not being clear. $104 is a convenient place for the bid wall that is a substantial part of the support. |
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There's a large wall at $80 and a huge wall at $70 - these are my targets over the coming weekend. I chose the same targets on the downside. My ask at $129 went unfilled. |
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 Support at $107 holding back a further drop at the moment. |
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 The corresponding capitulation in bitcoin bubble 1 had two equally sized downward legs over a three day period. If this one goes into three days then I expect it also will have a second leg down - which is indicated as a likely completion of the illustrated triangle pattern. |
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Are you posting the same thing in multiple threads?  I will stop cross posting now that you have mentioned it. And I am sorry that it wasted your time. |
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Tickets Purchased for the Bagholder's Ball. There is now a mighty mass of bitcoins purchased since April 1 above current levels and yet unsold. Back in August 2011, the first and greatest capitulation of that bubble had two legs, dropping over three days. I believe the situation permits a breather at ~115 for a day, then another deep plunge - to the extent that a single carefully selected instance from 2011 serves to model all such bitcoin bubbles.
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