+1

28 days after the April 10 peak

A bubble collapse should be characterized by successfully lower peaks. This is a weaker bearish claim than the current bubble collapse trendline - that might still hold if the trendline is broken to the upside for a while.

Here are the current candidates of yet unsurpassed peaks ...

• April 9 - $266
• April 23 - $166
• April 28 - $149
• May 5 - $125

The longer time passes without these peaks being surpassed, I think, the more sentiment turns away from the notion that the bubble can indeed be reinflated.

This pattern sets up a potential trend change. I sense a diminishing amount of buyers.

Although, it is a slightly upward trend with continued attacks on the resistance at $115.

The now known to be fake ask wall at $115 vanished just as trades approached it.

Interesting watching the numerous 0.1337 sales nibble away at the available bids. I assume that it is a bot. I cannot figure a motive. Its not frequent enough to cause lag. It is not even handled - so I rule out an arb bot. Why not just buy from the large bid at the top of the depth in one lot.

Is it a signal among a team of traders? Does anyone do such a thing?

I figure 194 bitcoins mined per hour at this rate. Interesting to compare that number with hourly trading volume - which was 1095 in the last complete hour at Mt. Gox.

Trading range narrowing with the diminished volume.

An update on the battle to determine the rate of bubble collapse.

I believe that the green climbing support line represents bargain-hunting buyers. When these two trendlines collide, perhaps that is the point at which bargain hunting buyers decide the bubble is real and that prices will go lower if they wait.

Does resistance trump support at $105?

Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.

This uptrend meets historical resistance near $112.

So sorry, the support line is a hypothesis dependent upon the strength of the identified declining resistance line. I draw it to give me more data from which to place the spread of buy limit orders that get triggered if and when the bubble collapses further.

27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

On your thread, or on a consumer-facing thread, I would be glad to adopt cheaper-sounding units of measure. But on the legacy threads of bitcoin speculation tradition here at bitcointalk, I for one, want the good old fashioned bitcoin, if for no other reason than to celebrate it.

I think that the large traders propelling these trends think of us here as sort of scalpers. We know the game, and they let us play.

+1

In case this latest down movement from $125 is indeed a part of a larger move towards $80, it is useful to consider what pattern might be revealed. The previous strike down is illustrated, and its pattern applied to the current trend.

Mt. Gox volume at 9000 BTC only 16 minutes into this hour. Goxlag now 57sec. Wall busting power downwards should it continue.

May pause at the $100 wall, if not before. If indeed this is a lengthy downward movement headed towards a retest of $80, then it will, in my judgement, be a multi-leg movement.

Volume picking up on this downtrend.

If anybody cares, I cancelled my highest outstanding bid at $95 and moved it to join another lower existing bid as part of a spread of bids should this downtrend indeed make a strike for $80. I now believe that a retracement from a retest of $80 might not get as high as the last one did.