rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[BitChick]

Wealth preservation is something that needs to be done in timeframes longer than 3 months.

For example 3 years timeframe my bread just got 500 times cheaper..

3 years isn't that long for an investment.

However, I often wonder if patience is more difficult for those of us that are living with a more "fast food" mindset.  The best meals take a while to prepare don't they? We just need to wait a bit longer for them.  

[Biodom]

In comparison, the dollar is doing a better job. Because the prices at the grocer are the same as 3 months ago.

I don't think that you go to grocery stores quote often, LOL.
The price of beef in US is 30-40% higher than 12mo ago.
The price of walnuts (I like them) is up more than 50% in the last couple of years-I see it first hand.

[maker88]

In comparison, the dollar is doing a better job. Because the prices at the grocer are the same as 3 months ago.

I don't think that you go to grocery stores quote often, LOL.
The price of beef in US is 30-40% higher than 12mo ago.
The price of walnuts (I like them) is up more than 50% in the last couple of years-I see it first hand.

the price of milk is up 20cents a gal from like the spring time. bunch of bullshit lol I NEED MY MILK

[BitChick]

In comparison, the dollar is doing a better job. Because the prices at the grocer are the same as 3 months ago.

I don't think that you go to grocery stores quote often, LOL.
The price of beef in US is 30-40% higher than 12mo ago.
The price of walnuts (I like them) is up more than 50% in the last couple of years-I see it first hand.

the price of milk is up 20cents a gal from like the spring time. bunch of bullshit lol I NEED MY MILK

Just spend a week at Disney World then everything suddenly seems very cheap when you get home.  

Of course the family I met from the UK while in Orlando thought that things were relatively cheap compared to their home so I guess it is all about the value of the currency against other currencies isn't it? 

[SlipperySlope]

Just spend a week at Disney World then everything suddenly seems very cheap when you get home.  

Of course the family I met from the UK while in Orlando thought that things were relatively cheap compared to their home so I guess it is all about the value of the currency against other currencies isn't it? 

Also value added taxes are popular in Europe which exaggerates the price differences at retail vs the USA.

[SlipperySlope]

Just spend a week at Disney World then everything suddenly seems very cheap when you get home.  

Of course the family I met from the UK while in Orlando thought that things were relatively cheap compared to their home so I guess it is all about the value of the currency against other currencies isn't it?  

Also value added taxes are popular in Europe which exaggerates the price differences at retail vs the USA.

Taxes in general are very popular here. Sadly, we're much bigger socialists than the Americans (who are indeed socialists as well nowadays).

Because the USA has relatively good compliance with income tax payments, we have a rather progressive tax structure in which half of taxpayers pay little or no federal tax but a small proportion of high income companies and individuals pay the majority of federal revenue. Many US states follow the federal lead with regard to state income taxes. Interestingly, Florida and Texas do not have state income taxes and rely on other taxes for revenue.

All in all, I consider the US tax system to be comparatively progressive in structure, e.g. soak the rich, yet perhaps less tax as a percentage of national income vs. say some European countries which soak the middle class through VAT. In the USA, the rich are fighting back politically, as a recent court decision permits corporations to contribute funds to political campaigns as if they were individuals, enabling the so called 1% to punch well above their weight so to speak when it comes to electing low-tax officials.

[Wexlike]

great visualization of the price chart found in the bitcoin reddit:


http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2ezwjq/bitcoin_price_with_overundervalued_bands_revised/

[NotLambchop]

Wealth preservation is something that needs to be done in timeframes longer than 3 months.

For example 3 years timeframe my bread just got 500 times cheaper..

How long a timeframe would you consider sufficient to alter your trading strategy?  And what prompted your choice of "3 months"?  The exchange rate has been shittening for over 8 months...

[xyzzy099]

All in all, I consider the US tax system to be comparatively progressive in structure, e.g. soak the rich, yet perhaps less tax as a percentage of national income vs. say some European countries which soak the middle class through VAT. In the USA, the rich are fighting back politically, as a recent court decision permits corporations to contribute funds to political campaigns as if they were individuals, enabling the so called 1% to punch well above their weight so to speak when it comes to electing low-tax officials.

The US Tax system is very progressive.  According to IRS statistics, 95% of all the tax revenue they collect comes from the 5% of taxpayers with the highest income.

Because the tax code is so convoluted, however, the actual revenue collected is nowhere near what tax rates would seem to suggest,.

From the mid 1940s until 1963 or so, the highest marginal tax rate was around 90% (compared to the current 39%), but throughout that period, and even after taxes were slashed severely, first by legislation introduced by JFK, and later by Reagan, the IRS has never collected more than 21% of GDP in tax revenue.  The worst year, I think, was 1950, when the tax rate was ~90%, and we collected 14% of GDP in taxes.  The best was 2000, when we collected 21% of GDP in revenue with a marginal tax rate of 39%.

[EuroTrash]

Meh. It is still slowly dropping.
This is what I think. End of January 2012. With the difference that blockchain reward halving is 2 years ahead not one year ahead.



So what? I have been wrong in the past.

And still ain't selling any.

[ensurance982]

Interesting, EuroTrash! Do you think that the fact of the reward-halving still taking some time plays a big role or not so much? It's an interesting approach nevertheless, though. We may very well be in for quite some sideways movement now... Which is still better than tanking to $100 in my books!

[EuroTrash]

Interesting, EuroTrash! Do you think that the fact of the reward-halving still taking some time plays a big role or not so much? It's an interesting approach nevertheless, though. We may very well be in for quite some sideways movement now... Which is still better than tanking to $100 in my books!

Thanks! I think the fact that reward halving is so far away in the future will slow recovery down. But not much.
IMO no way we are tanking to $100, because of this:



400s or even 300s are possible 'tho.

[painlord2k]

In the past few years the big spike of price in Bitcoin correspond (broadly) to big spike in inflation of USD MB and M1 (mainly M1)
Also, corrections of the price correspond to slowing down of inflation of MB and M1.
But we must remember, until November 2012 (first halving) BTC's inflation was around 25% per year, then it halved and for short period of time was lower than M1 inflation (not much), then went over it as M1 inflation went down (in the mean time we had the 2nd Bubble in March). During spring and summer inflation difference increased and when it stabilized, there was the start of the second bubble.
It would be interesting compare inflation in Yuan MB and M1 in the same period.

Both inflation in M1 and BTC supply started to converge in January and they are bound to cross again in the next weeks.
I would suggest, when inflation of BTC supply will equal inflation in M1 (previous 52 week for both) and then become permanently lower the winds will start, again, to blow permanently in our winds.

In 2011 the difference fell a lot, but then BTC inflation was in the 30% per year when M1 was 20% per year.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml#

Now, the only (short term) problem could be if the Fed. stopped money printing and MB inflation went to zero and M1 started to fall under 10%.
This would lower the appeal of BTC as a store of value against the USD (but it would have a lot of other interesting features anyway) but, in the same time, the banking sector and near all economy would grind to halt as interest rate would soar. And with interest rate soaring, government interest payments would start to raise banckrupting the federal government and many state and local governments (Europe and Japan would not be in different shape, anyway).

Agree with Eurotrash any low under 400 $ is very improbable to happen or last more than a few hours.
Adoption is taking care of placing a solid base under quote 400. And it is raising it.


free image hosting

[ensurance982]

Rpietila, are you in some way related to this person working on The Simpsons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonita_Pietila? I always see her name while the credits roll after an episode and I can't but think of our favourite Bitcoin Supernode

[Biodom]

A curios factoid:

1. US just increased cost to renounce citizenship to $2350 from $450 ($422%). $2350 is ~20 times higher than other industrialized countries.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2014/08/28/u-s-hikes-fee-to-renounce-citizenship-by-422/

2. Russia decreased cost of renouncing citizenship from $500 to ~$100, which is in line with other countries and very easy to afford. Russia boosted cost to $500 in the 90ies with a lot of emigration. $500 was a LOT of money then.

I find it strange. A free country should not make artificial barriers for its citizens to exit. Isn't it what we were telling the USSR before?

[wachtwoord]

A curios factoid:

1. US just increased cost to renounce citizenship to $2350 from $450 ($422%). $2350 is ~20 times higher than other industrialized countries.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2014/08/28/u-s-hikes-fee-to-renounce-citizenship-by-422/

2. Russia decreased cost of renouncing citizenship from $500 to ~$100, which is in line with other countries and very easy to afford. Russia boosted cost to $500 in the 90ies with a lot of emigration. $500 was a LOT of money then.

I find it strange. A free country should not make artificial barriers for its citizen's to exit. Isn't it what we were telling the USSR before?

Wow they charge a fee? I would just burn the passport, send them a letter telling them to go fuck themselves and never return on US soil.

[xyzzy099]

1. US just increased cost to renounce citizenship to $2350 from $450 ($422%). $2350 is ~20 times higher than other industrialized countries.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2014/08/28/u-s-hikes-fee-to-renounce-citizenship-by-422/

lol, I had no idea there even was such a fee anywhere.

When I changed citizenship I had to pay an application fee to the local regime. They granted it and they sent a notice to my former countries ambassador that I was no longer their citizen in the eyes of my country and asked them to remove my former citizenship - which they did.

I find it kind of odd that they would even bother asking for a fee if you are granted a single citizenship in another country. If the country you are in considers you a sole citizen of that country and you don't plan on going anywhere near your former country then why accept a fee, just tell them you're no longer their citizen and forget about it.

IANAL, but I think what you did is referred to legally as relinguishing your citizenship, as opposed to the more formal procedure of renouncing it.

The US does not charge people who relinquish either, but renouncement is a formal procedure with a lot of paperwork and bureaucracy involved, so there is a fee associated with it.

It's not clear to me why some people choose to renounce - it is pretty much irrevocable, as well as more work, and much more expensive - but there must be some legal reason why some people go that route.

[ArticMine]

The main reason that people renounce United States citizenship is that the United States is one of only two countries in the world that levies income taxes on the basis of citizenship. They also coerce financial institutions around the world in order to enforce this tax collection on their customers. One of the results of this is that being a United States citizen makes a person persona non grata when seeking financial services in many parts of the world. Both of these reasons provide a powerful incentive for ex pat United States citizens to renounce their US citizenship.

[aminorex]

loved the chart porn.  thanks.

[nanobrain]

The main reason that people renounce United States citizenship is that the United States is one of only two countries in the world that levies income taxes on the basis of citizenship. They also coerce financial institutions around the world in order to enforce this tax collection on their customers. One of the results of this is that being a United States citizen makes a person persona non grata when seeking financial services in many parts of the world. Both of these reasons provide a powerful incentive for ex pat United States citizens to renounce their US citizenship.

How ironic that the main driver for 'the colonies' wanting independence was freedom from taxation.