The selling pressure just keeps coming. Funny ask wall gone now.

The most recent wave of big money buyers now has a strong motivation to sell.

My asks back at 140 were taken.

If that is indeed the case then there should be a battle to break through below $120.

Not exactly what caused today's slump, but the change of sentiment that accompanied the collapse of the bubble at $266 is now sort of a depressing weight pulling prices down.

Maybe stable around 135 for a while. Lots of support there in the past.

Please consider carefully the next summit venue.

I suggest Silicon Valley, e.g. in Mountain View close to the Google Campus.

• Invite local VC and Singularity Summit  style keynoters, and pitch it at legacy regional investment firms competing for wealthy young risk taking clients, e.g. the Winklevoss twins.
• Incorporate a demo day with bitcoin awards for best bitcoin start up pitch & demo.

That's exactly what happened back in the summer of 2011. After the first bubble peak, much of the commentary around here was 'was that the bottom?'. The bubble decline takes so long to play out because the most reluctant buyer gets the best price - and there will be a lot of buyers as you say.

Or maybe the 4-5x annual bitcoin price increase 2010 to Dec 2012 is enough to persuade your customers to buy and hold. No need to include the Jan-Feb rate which I argue is part, maybe the most important part, of the bubble.

Wonderful chart that would support your point except that well known gold bubbles have different time frames than yours.

But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?

Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers. And note those new bids are relatively larger in amount due to profit taken.

Ah yes.

But back in January, the price was warranted too - at $13.50. We all can see what has changed in those months, but the flood of new money that was the biggest change - appears to be waning.

The usual notion of Sucker's Rally is to distinguish buyers who are misinformed about valuation, as subsequent price action reveals. Let's see what happens.

You joined in time for the first bubble collapse back in June 2011. Do you recall the steady, gut-wrenching decline from the $20's down to $2? I do. It's little comfort  withstanding a 90% drop in value knowing that bitcoins will eventually be worth $$$ each.

20 days after the April 10 peak



The most significant resistance to increasing bitcoin prices is currently above $145. The recent peak at $160 has not yet been surpassed.

Now that 20 days have elapsed after the all-time-high of $266, the amount of buying enthusiasm that used to arrive each Monday morning is waning. Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs. I believe, that until $120 is breached to the downside, the way down will be primarily motivated by profit taking, and below $120 by loss-staunching and periodic capitulations.

What would negate the case for a the short term bear market? New high prices, in particular a new all time high.  What would confirm the case? A long battle at $120 with a breakthrough to lower prices, in particular a low below $60.

Sentiment continues to cool 20 days post bubble peak, e.g. Google Trends, Reddit.

I sold some more bitcoins at $135 and have outstanding sell orders below $150, attempting to raise more $ selling into what I think is a Sucker's Rally.

Agreed, I asked that question some days ago. There appears to be a significant amount of large-order trading that is sub-optimal, in that certain alternative tactics may be better: a limit order lets the other side come to you with no slippage, or a big order should be sliced up and targeted at select counter offers over a period of time - and program trading can automate that too.

Either profit-taking - which is the case for buyers after April 12, or stop loss - which is the case for buyers above current prices. In the first case, the motive is to realize a gain in dollars. In the second case the motive is to prevent further losses. I do not impute a manipulation motive where greed and fear are sufficient.

Watching trades today, I see most large ones are sales.

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.

Thanks so very much!


"this is bubble all over again"

Technical patterns in price, e.g. a bubble, are typically fractal with respect to the time domain - right? So it's turtles all the way down.

+1