I wonder if the rally over the past nine hours will surpass $71. If not, bearish.

If this rally exceeds $130 it makes the case for a completed bubble collapse stronger. Conversely, if this rally reverses to a low below $88, it makes the case for a continued collapse of the bubble.

My own trading allocation is betting on the uptrend continuing per moving averages.

Is anyone else noticing the relatively low lag at Mt. Gox? Smooth handling of the high volume so far.

Yes, here in the USA hardly anyone knows about it.

The latter.

I bought back in at $131 after $125 was finally surpassed on the upside. I sold some back at $112 and then the rest at $99 in the past hour. My volume was large enough for slippage so I sliced it and waited for bids.

Well, with the high commissions Gox charges, its hard to see how they go out of business. At worst they sell the firm.

I am 100% back in fiat awaiting further collapse of the bubble.

Thanks for annotating and commenting on your charts. With so many indicators present I like when you highlight how you interpret them.

The 10 day trend is downwards from $136, with sideways movement so far this weekend.

Yeah, I bought back in 80% at $131. Holding 20% (or less as conditions indicate) as trend trading funds using Goomboo's moving average algorithm. The hourly chart trend is clearly downwards at the present.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Works for me.

I generally believe the bitcoin economy will unfold as Rick Falkvinge outlined back in 2011 ...

1. Unlawful trade - e.g. Silk road, criminal currency transfers.
2. International trade - wire transfers are too expensive, and credit cards are not accepted uniformly worldwide.
3. Merchant trade, e.g. credit card fees and fraud are too expensive.
4. Investment, e.g. like precious metals but no storage costs and supply is strictly limited.

It is shortsighted in my opinion, to focus on just one of these.

Risto Pietilä, who as a precious metals dealer frequented this forum a month ago, could make a great case for the last category. By the way, Risto I miss your commentary and wish you well.

Using smoothed log data for the blockchain.info chart on USD transaction volume, it is harder to draw a support trendline.

My rough effort gives a an increase of 100x every 20 months. By including all transactions we include speculation on the exchanges as well as commercial transactions.

I prefer another of the excellent blockchain.info charts. Excluding distortions such as Satoshi Dice, this one clearly illustrates the long term growth of the underlying bitcoin economy. The drawn support line indicates a growth rate of 10x every 14 months which approximately agrees with the corresponding long term support line for bitcoin prices.

The chart settings are log, smoothed and all data.

Volume is tapering off as we have come to expect leading into the weekend. I've drawn support and resistance lines but the volatility today has cleared out the large bid and ask walls that would otherwise channel the price.

You are welcome. I try hard to separate evidence from my opinion of it.

Interesting notion ...

During this transition to ASIC mining technology, one entity - ASICMiner - has a very large share of mined coins. Perhaps they have more motivation to sell than the multitude of individual GPU miners that have been effectively replaced.

Lots of slippage when the dump occurs. There are well known techniques to slice orders and time them for more efficient executions, e.g. wait for bids to fill back in.  Why don't dumpers use them?

Here is the short term downtrend after the recent peak at $136. The next bid walls are at $104-105.

Indeed. Although I bought back in at $131, I have 20% still in fiat in case the bubble collapses further.

An important test will be at $104. The bear case becomes stronger should that be broken through on the downside.