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101  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 12, 2013, 07:21:41 PM
I asked this question a couple pages back, but I didn't get any reply:

Can anyone shed some light on how closely we've been tracking the predictions made in the spreadsheet that's on the first page of the Speculation thread? I've only been a shareholder since mid July, so I'd like to hear how some of the metrics have ended up relative to their predictions.

AFAIK we are slightly behind compared to the projections in the spreadsheet. Our hands are kind of tied with respect to the Klondikes and the Avalon clones since both of those projects (totally ~6th/s) are dependent upon Avalon chips being shipped arriving in a timely (lol) manner. I don't want to give specific estimates (especially the dreaded "2 weeks"TM), but everything that can be done/prepped by Ken beforehand is being done (see one of ActiveMining-PRs first updates).

Progress with respect to eASIC is a little more difficult to comment on due to the NDA. Last I heard (and I'm one of those guys that has read every page on both this and the speculation thread) Ken was converting the BTC into USD to pay the NRE costs. We did learn that eASIC is, in fact, capable of dealing with 28nm chips thanks to the press release about Seagate and eASIC so that's some good news there.

If I have made any errors in the above statements, please correct them. On a more positive note, share price is growing nicely thanks to all the BTCgarden ipo money finally being returned.

You are quite correct. Smiley

I'm waiting for more concrete Avalon news and the complete closing of the deal with eAsic to update my projections with more meaningful time-frames.

So far I'd say the global network difficulty escalation is going to make anyone designing chips without a very strong engineering team to have very tough times ahead, as the new designs must really deliver to be competitive (small and mobile chip expertise won't cut it anymore).
102  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 12, 2013, 01:12:50 AM

?? I'm pretty sure water will get heated above winter temperatures.

Anyway, Electricity cost of 450Kw/h vs profit will be irrelevant for a long while.

One point about this that I believe could be a future game changer:

The European Parliament debates on and brings in laws across the European Union (US-based readers may or may not know much about this). All EU countries must and do, almost without exception, abide by EU law. Now the EU are largely VERY progressive especially on 'ECO' matters - they had for example started the phase out the use of high energy-use incandescent light bulbs by 2009, whereas in the US a similar ban has still to come into effect and in California for example it wont do until 2018!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_incandescent_light_bulbs

What this means is that the industrial use of electricity by BTC mining companies may be heavily taxed in the future in Europe while in the US it remains unregulated for far longer. The EU parliament has a history of introducing eco laws that are unpopular with business but are popular with the public. I think it would be very easy for btc mining operations to be priced out of the EU given enough bad publicity about 'wasting' massive amounts of electricity. Germany has decided to abandon all of it's nuclear power stations       http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_transition_in_Germany     by 2022, they are planning to go completely renewable. Power is an incredibly hot topic as a result in Germany and Germans are generally very eco minded. So it's easy to see them putting pressure on the legislative body/European Commission to introduce a carbon tax on BTC mining across the EU.


Don't send them this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/virtual-bitcoin-mining-is-a-real-world-environmental-disaster.html Tongue
103  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 12, 2013, 01:02:48 AM

That's true but US administrative courts are on longer confined by the rule of law.

Instead they are engaged in a naked asset grab, which will not abate until kinetic resistance is encountered en masse.

ACTM's property and principles are located in the USSA and may be easily seized by any judge unamused by cute shell companies and smart-ass asset structuring.

This is going to sound sarcastic, but I don't mean it to be.

Are you of the mindset that the US gov't can and will do whatever they want, on a world-wide scale, regardless of any law/restriction that is in place?

http://www.bosl.com/belize_court.html

http://www.bosl.com/trusts_assets_protection.html
104  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 12, 2013, 12:49:56 AM
So, 500TH/s using 400GH/s chips, that's 1250 chips rated by the manufacturer at 350W each (I personally don't believe that last part, but ok), for a total of 437.5kW.

Using a 90% efficient power source, that's at least 486kWh both in energy consumption and in heat generated, requiring cooling of at least 1,658,232BTU.

Care to discuss how both of these problems will be handled? Smiley


We currently have a location bedded down which can handle that power-draw (expandable up to 2.5MW) and an on-site chiller which will supply us with 5.5degC water-supply (in)
The heated water generated from the ASICs will go directly (out) toward heating a newly-built, medium-sized (20+ floors) skyscraper. Exactly how much of that heat will be re-used is unknown at this stage, and will probably change over time, but it helps that our deployment will happen at the start of the European winter.

This is for the primary location - we have that pretty much wrapped up, but we are looking into other locations that may be better able to handle the heat output, and work better for cost reduction and longevity of the mine (price/kWh). Please understand that buying energy at volume gets much better deals than retail/household prices.

A chiller with a compressor for at least ~140RT is probably an extra ~200kWh (compressor, pump, ...) so it's a considerable expense.

(...)
Anyway, Electricity cost of 450Kw/h vs profit will be irrelevant for a long while.

Electricity cost is never irrelevant, since it's what keeps the machines alive. The moment operational cost > profit is when they are shut down. It all boils down to efficiency in the end.
105  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) on: August 11, 2013, 11:26:24 PM
So, 500TH/s using 400GH/s chips, that's 1250 chips rated by the manufacturer at 350W each (I personally don't believe that last part, but ok), for a total of 437.5kW.

Using a 90% efficient power source, that's at least 486kWh both in energy consumption and in heat generated, requiring cooling of at least 1,658,232BTU.

Care to discuss how both of these problems will be handled? Smiley
106  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [VMC] Official Virtual Mining Corporation Discussion on: August 09, 2013, 11:01:42 PM
I need some tech support from Vbs or Ken before getting back in ACTM.  

My brain's EECS well is almost dry.  Quantum lithography?  Sure, common knowledge.

Iterative vs. rolled vs. unrolled cores?  Ummm, ELI30 ploz....      

Which is more faster?  Which is ACTM using?

Will our giant semi-premade cores have better heat dissipation from being more widely spaced?

Is this stuff Top Secret, because NDA?
Getting back in ActM? Oh my! Grin

The current simulations are at 20 unrolled cores at 800MHz to 1GHz (16GH/s to 20GH/s) per chip.

There are various factors for heat dissipation but a larger chip area lowers thermal resistance, for a specific power (W/mm^2).

107  Economy / Securities / Re: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) on: August 09, 2013, 05:33:06 PM
I find it pretty funny that you think vbs is "watching our backs". Vbs is a long-time, outspoken promoter and investor in ActM. It Streets never became ActM's PR person, it likely would've been Vbs. Do you have any proof that Vbs even knows what he's talking about? Any proof that he owns Labcoin shares? Any proof that he's not just spouting FUD in order to drive potential investor away from Labcoin to ActM?

I just find it funny that you're willing to put so much trust in someone who actually has a good motive to spread FUD here.

I think VBS is threatened by Labcoin.  It would be best if he just stayed in his own thread and make comments about Labcoin there.  The same should go for all "Spokes people" for company's.

Disclaimer

I also own both

Oh, but by all means! Hands off from me on the Labcoin business! Smiley

I kept replying here since I initially raised technical points that remained unanswered and thought I was doing a favor to the community by asking those to be clarified. I guess I should have known better. Lesson learned. Smiley
108  Economy / Securities / Re: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread on: August 09, 2013, 04:17:40 PM
From what I've read on the latest offers and chip design specs, it seems the technical parts are always a tiny detail to the overall investor mindset on how to value a typical Bitcoin ASIC IPO.

Please replace "banana" with "terahash": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYBw_o_2nG0 Grin
109  Economy / Securities / Re: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) on: August 09, 2013, 09:40:40 AM
Quote
[11:43] <labcoin_dev> Alright,the 130nm IC is designed to work at about 200 Mhz for core, with a total consumption of 0.8W per core, hashing performances of about 200 mhash per core, total speed will depend  on the overall output grade
Quote
[11:53] <+labcoin_dev> Chip frequency : 300Mhz, Process : 130nm CMOS, Die size: 4160,0000um2,    VDD : 1.2-1.5 V adjustable
Quote
[11:57] <zefy> So you've arranged them to fit more on the same size?
[11:58] <+labcoin_dev> we adopt a "sea-of-hashers" approach
[11:58] <dexX7> from vbs: "For that to be possible, not only each Labcoin core would have to be ~42% smaller [65/130*(6.5^2)/(7.1^2)] than each BFL core but also the Labcoin chip would magically operate at a higher frequency (300MHz vs 250MHz) while keeping the same power draw..."
[11:58] <+labcoin_dev> i remind you guys that the bitfury chip has up to 750 cores
[11:59] <+labcoin_dev> they also use the same approach, we chose this design because one of our guys was close to bitfury developments 2 months ago
Quote
[12:13] <ThickAsThieves> 6. How is it possible to create chips with a such much better performance than the competitors?
[12:14] <+labcoin_dev> ThickAsThieves, rolled cores instead of unrolled, sea-of-hashers approach
[12:15] <+labcoin_dev> as in sea-of-gates
[12:15] <+labcoin_dev> you can google this term and find out more about what it means technically

So, you guys really have no idea how this will turn out? Incredible gamble. There are so many wholes I dunno where to start. Undecided

You haven't yet demystified that you took the simulation of one core and just copy/pasted it 15 extra times to make the chip and didn't bother simulating the end result. Where are the power specs being properly simulated? This is not as simple as 0.8W@200MHz equals to 0.8W*16@300MHz! That is really naive! A chip working at 1.5V uses 56% more power than one at 1.2V!

First, it's a "sea-of-hashers", then it's a "sea-of-gates" with rolled cores. Rolled cores means at best the chip produces a bitcoin hash at at half the frequency rate, since each core will need to do SHA256 twice for one hash (2 clock cycles). This means that a 300MHz chip with 16 cores will hash at 2400MH/s. Or is the chip gonna work at 200MHz like you also said? That's 1600MH/s.

A BitFury chip has 756 rolled cores but needs 65 cycles/hash, an equivalent of "normal" ~11.63 unrolled cores computing one hash per clock cycle. They are barely able to get 2GH/s from this design choice from the incredible signal interference inside the chip from skipping the necessary analog simulation but look how they estimated it to have between 2.8 and 10.4GH/s.
Technical Details (Translated from various Bitfury Posts)
  • The design is built on the 65nm UMC Process (http://www.umc.com/English/process/a.asp)
  • Bitcoin Engines: 756 Rolled cores (65 Cycles per Hash)
  • Expected operational frequency: 250Mhz-900Mhz
  • Packaging: QFN48
  • Conservative design, could be 40% smaller
  • Risk interconnect and transistor variations +/- 20%
  • Core implemented using full custom design process (some global place & route)
  • Number of transistors per "core": 55,000
  • Power estimate obtained from hspice simulation
  • Design optimised for low power and minimum size rather than high clock rate

Each chip is capable of 2.8-10.4Gh/s using a 756 core design
Estimated Chip Power Consumption: 1.96-7.26W (0.7W per 1Gh/s)
Estimated Power Consumption at Wall: 1.4W per 1Gh/s (<200W per 120Gh/s Device)

In case ppl don't know, a "sea-of-gates" chip is also a type of structured ASIC where only the metal layer needs to be customized.
110  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 08, 2013, 11:24:41 AM
Just in case you don't know,  ASICMiner is mining with these oldhat tech 130nm "ASIC" chips.

No, Asicminer is mining with oldhat, but less older, 110nm ones. Labcoin and Btcgarden preferred to go to even older tech at 130nm and promise better chips. Great promises right? Cool
I am sure that AM is mining with 130nm.

Mind reading 2 posts above yours? Wink

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252531.msg2890082#msg2890082
111  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 08, 2013, 10:24:25 AM
Just in case you don't know,  ASICMiner is mining with these oldhat tech 130nm "ASIC" chips.

No, Asicminer is mining with oldhat, but less older, 110nm ones. Labcoin and Btcgarden preferred to go to even older tech at 130nm and promise better chips. Great promises right? Cool

No, AM are using 130nm, Avalon are the ones using 110nm.

Damn, you are quite right! Grin

Update

A lot of great thing happened last week. We wiped over the obstacles (infrastructure and paperwork) on deploying and put a lot of our available hashrate online. We also did a significant improvement (power, design, appearance) on the USB stick from the sample batch to the production batch.

For the discussion in the last few days, what we... I could say, is only that our IC design team had achieved fantastic results, as everyone could see and compare, with the most limited funds (barely more than 100k$ raised last August) and most inferior mask-set of choice (130nm which belongs to the antiquity era), and I'm proud of it.

Interesting that friedcat considers that their "IC design team had achieved fantastic results", while the newer 130nm guys all think they can produce much much better chips... Roll Eyes Grin
112  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] labcoin ASIC - v.1 @65nm/433Mhz - v.2 @65nm - European / Chinese Team on: August 08, 2013, 09:50:46 AM
Today we have a very important update, the Chinese team is simulating a lot of design simultaneously and worked almost non-stop for the last 48 hours  targeting different process sizes.

The results are more than positive, i will try to outline them in the clearest way possible.

1) The 65nm 500Mhz is still undergoing post-verification phase, while another simulation is ongoing at 600Mhz and we're waiting for the results.

2)  Post simulations yielded positive results on a 130nm, 300Mhz, Power 0.8W, 6.5x6.5mm design.
    
     The team is working on HDL optimizations to get 16 cores for chip.

     Some math, quoted from the tech team
Quote
    "300M*16=4.8G, 0.8*16=12.8W, Area=130,0000*16=2080,0000, make the utilization ratio to 50%, the chip size will be about 4160,0000um2, about 6.5mm x 6.5mm"

     "Power consumption per GHash is 12.8W/4.8G=2.7W/GHash"

      "Estimated selling price for chip, 8-9 USD"

What does this mean ? i think it's not hard to get.  130nm process and 5GH speed at slightly higher power consumption, but competitive prices.

Shoot any question guys

Sam
Labcoin team

How can this version be so much smaller than the earlier 180nm design? I assume this is more or less the 180nm chip design shrunk to 130nm, and the numbers seem right except for the size. How in the world can you fit 16 cores in that small area? I can't make sense of it. The 180nm version would be 5mmx5mm so this one should be a square with 5mm*130/180=3.6mm, no? 16 of these would be 14x14. Can anybody help me figure this out?


+1

It's called "designing IC's by multiplication"! Where are the proper simulation results?
113  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 08, 2013, 09:34:23 AM
ASICMINER's next generation chips will be out by November... do you honestly think any of these IPOs will produce functional products by then? We don't know the specs of the next AM chips... but there is every reason to assume they will be in line with the specs these other companies are promising, if not superior.

The primary difference is that ASICMINER has proven that they can deliver.

Oh, I have much more faith in them than any of the new hacked IPO's appearing with new chips properly designed.

The only exception for me is ActM (eAsic) and KnC (ORSoC), even though I'm really doubtful of KnC: they seem to have designed a 192 core chip at ~500MHz, 0.9V. That's a very very very big gamble. In the end, I'm expecting they will have to cut on the frequency to 300-400MHz and up the voltage 1.0+V to get that behemoth working. Undecided

(and let's not even talk about the problem of having 4 of those together generating 250W of heat each)
114  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 08, 2013, 09:23:20 AM
Just in case you don't know,  ASICMiner is mining with these oldhat tech 130nm "ASIC" chips.

No, Asicminer is mining with oldhat, but less older, 110nm ones. Labcoin and Btcgarden preferred to go to even older tech at 130nm and promise better chips. Great promises right? Cool

TBH Vbs, i dont really know or understand what those two companies are promising. The lack of easily digestible, and consistent information/communication is at best, questionable.

They came to the market one year late and are now grasping to stick around. The fact >90% here don't understand the technical data makes them easy grabs.

ASICMiner has hit their glass ceiling and are basically floundering to be fair, simply because they are on old tech.

The fact they haven't yet deployed their inital 12TH + 50TH after all this time is a dead giveaway. They are currently at ~40TH, so that's ~4000 blades at 83W each, 332kW (more like ~370kW@90% efficient power delivery). Their power infrastructure must be on their knees, that's why they try to sell as much as they can instead of putting them operational. They know they would only be increasing the size of the elephant. I like how these new 130nm IPOs think they can solve this problem with just some finger snapping. Grin
115  Economy / Securities / Re: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread on: August 08, 2013, 09:13:32 AM
The price goes up. The price goes down. The price goes up. The price goes down.
More IPOs for Mining Companies with big dreams show up.
The funds for those new, novel IPOs must come from somewhere, so maybe people are selling ActM to get into something else.
Why was there a recent drop from over .006 to .004x?
What do you think the price of ActM should be right now?
What new IPOs on BF and elsewhere look good?

I don't think there's anything else that looks good. All those >28nm chips will take a huge toll as the global network diff rises and they won't be able to compete due to their running power costs.

In the 28nm die shrink all the new guys appearing want to grab all the profit for themselves as much as possible so they don't offer any investment options, just hardware for sale.

Even most current 28nm designs look very sketchy. I can definitely understand ActM's ~16GH/s chip specs, but chips with 100GH/s? 400GH/s? Pulling one of those off requires a team with extreme 28nm knowledge and skill and I don't think anyone with both would choose to design a chip like that (they would need precise analog simulations, custom transistor design, etc, just to keep the signal interference inside those big chips at bay; much easier to design smaller and more efficient chips).

KnC's 28nm ASIC is at a similar efficiency to BitFury's 55nm ASIC. There's more to it than simply the size of the process. These 28nm ASICs sacrifice performance and efficiency for faster design and manufacturing and lower NRE costs. You can't just claim one chip is better than another because it uses a smaller process.

The only way for a chip on 28nm to be worse than anything else is if the designers cut corners or don't properly know how to use the die shrink benefits. Any big die area IC will take a big hit on efficiency if not properly designed. I don't think you correctly understood what I was saying above. Smiley
116  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 08, 2013, 09:00:56 AM
Just in case you don't know,  ASICMiner is mining with these oldhat tech 130nm "ASIC" chips.

No, Asicminer is mining with oldhat, but less older, 110nm ones. Labcoin and Btcgarden preferred to go to even older tech at 130nm and promise better chips. Great promises right? Cool

Edit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252531.msg2890082#msg2890082
117  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 07, 2013, 10:32:16 PM
Just back on this "real asic" - "semi-prefab-asic" question - SHA256 is an incredibly simple algorithm so I very much doubt a cell-based ASIC would be all that much faster than a pre-fab jobbie. If the ASIC needed to be super complex (more like a scrypt ASIC) - I can see cell-based would offer reasonably uplift in performance, but with the simplicity of SHA256 chips, pre-fab won't be much worse off.

Liken it to calculating pi in machine code, or any other programming language. Both are going to be able to do a pretty damn quick job of it - arguably compiled code will run as quickly as machine code doing the same thing. I'm guessing the differences might be around the 10-20% although I am absolutely 100% speculating without any knowledge of chip production.

The big question is not the SHA256 code, but the designer's experience in building high-toggle rate chips. When you start packing cores and cores of SHA256 miners, the signal interference gets so big because of the high toggle rate, that the chip can turn out a complete dud.

Now, I know eAsic has experience under these scenarios and ActM's chips only pack 20 cores each but I'm holding my popcorn to see all those other 28nm chips rated >100GH/s with hundreds of mining cores per chip done by impromptu groups of chip designers (my prediction? I'll be a mess). Undecided
118  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 07, 2013, 09:58:42 PM
Do you have any insight into how this differs from the "better" cell-based ASIC that I keep seeing referenced?

It really depends on how much eAsic can further optimize the SHA-256 mining code to fit into their "eCell" architecture. The first estimates go for 16GH/s based on Ken's initial RTL code, but tbh I'm expecting even more upon further rounds of optimizations with several specialized engineers working on it full time.

Let's not forget that eAsic also does a design conversion to standard-cell chips (what they call their "easicopy" process) for even further performance/lower price; this is their design flow on that, notice how well it correlates with the nextreme design process, saving a lot of work.

Yes, they are that good. They grew 980% in 2012, let's see they break that in 2013. Cool
119  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread on: August 07, 2013, 08:26:15 PM
Can somebody explain to me the suggestion that a "28nm ASIC" is basically just a 28nm FPGA... I read the eASIC press release to mean they've simplified the process of designing ASIC's to a level on par (in simplicity terms) to coding an FPGA? In other words "We've got software which basically designs the ASIC for us, based on an algorithm" rather than "our 28nm asic's are actually fpga's"

Maybe I'm missing the point here, but a 28nm ASIC is an ASIC... There's absolutely no way anyone could get 16GH on an FPGA chip, or even a semi-FPGA chip (whatever that is). If we compare the "real 65nm ASIC" produced by BFL, at 4.5GH, with the apparently "not real 28nm ASIC" running at 16GH, by your suggestion the concept that a 28nm chip can hash at 16GH is impossible.

I'll freely admit I'm not an engineer, but I am a logical person, I code, and I understand the concepts and differences between FPGA's and ASIC's. What's being suggested simply doesn't compute.

Hehe, very simple. Smiley



In an eASIC nextreme you remove the SRAM Programmed Routing of an FPGA and replace it by a real metal layer, so you not only get rid of the logic gate controlled routing bottleneck, you also gain more space on the chip for the logic gates that do the actual work.
120  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTCT.CO] [IPO] [FAQ]BTCGARDEN MINER---Eyes to the horizon on: August 07, 2013, 08:09:18 PM
To add some more details: the first batch contains 312 wafers * 2000 chips/wafer * 400 MH/s/chip = 249 TH/s. And according to the first post this batch should arrive mid september and the other batch will be ordered immediately after they receive/test the first batch. If this is all correct, a total of roughly 850 TH/s should be covered by the IPO.

Thanks for the info. OK, so realistically, 312 wafers * 2000 chips/wafer * 400 MH/s/chip * ~90% yield = 225 TH/s @ 843,750W. Using a 90% efficient power-supply, 937.5kW. Are there plans for an industrial-grade Power Substation? Can they guarantee the delivery of 1MW? (1MW is enough for an average of 400-900 US households). In reality, I'm expecting them to sell most of it, since the electrical overhead is just too much.

At 225TH/s@937.5kW, the profit margins will be very different if they start in September (~250%) than in October (~90.9%) or November (~1.29%).

Forget about the power infrastructure required to run 850TH/s on those 130nm chips, most will have to be sold. Smiley
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