There is never any guarantees - even if something like bitcoin is amongst the best of asymmetric bets (if not the best) that we have available on a wide-spread basis, it still is not guaranteed.... except it might be guaranteed that the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put into it, so long as you do not use leverage.

The various upside possibilities of bitcoin are great, they remain great and they likely are going to continue to remain great, but even those lovely and great upside scenarios are still not guaranteed to play out.

Both things can be true at the same time.

Best asymmetric bet ever, but still not guaranteed, which even means that bitcoin could go to zero...

The way that you allocate into bitcoin and/or any other assets, if you choose to do so, should account for the various scenarios, even if you likely would not need to put a lot of preparations in the bitcoin going to zero scenario.. it still exists.. and even the no coiner and low coiners might put too much emphasis in negative bitcoin scenarios, so they have to live with those kinds of consequences that come from their choices to either not allocate to bitcoin or to too whimpily allocate to bitcoin, which may also end up in their selling too much too soon when they had allocated some value to bitcoin...


I personally do not recommend taking profits every cycle, and I promote ideas of accumulating and overaccumulating prior to starting to fuck around with selling. My investment ideas thread talks about accumulation, so don't get distracted into selling (or trading or trying to buy back cheaper blah blah blah) if you have not yet accomplished accumulation.

Once you have reached your over-accumulation status, which could take 4-10 years or more to get to such a point, then you can consider switching to some other strategy and/or adjusting your strategies into something other than accumulation... until you get to a state of overaccumulation, continue to accumulate BTC. and maybe that even means continuing to buy at the top and continuing to buy through a whole cycle.. especially someone still building his BTC portfolio.. and if you are buying 10% of your income in bitcoin, it will take you 10 years before you have even reached a whole year of investment... so if you are trying to get to fuck you status, that would be in the ballpark of 20-30 years of your salary.. so you need a lot of appreciation in your investment to get from 1 year invested to 20-30 years of value in your investment portfolio (hopefully with a good size allocated to BTC).

You do not accumulate bitcoin by selling it, and you are never going to know when is the top..

For anyone trying to follow this part of the conversation, in regards to the tool.. there may well be a need for a reference... https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy and we also talk about aspects of the tool in bitmover's thread..  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.0

Of course, there is a difference between manually entering your withdrawals (BTC sales), and doing it based on an algorithm, and this kind of historical illustration that you are considering would largely be intended to show how the system would play out if the withdrawals were based on the then applicable formula were to be followed in a kind of strict and formulaic way.  

If you enter that kind of system, then it is no longer going to look like my column C, and that is o.k... but the idea could be retained, and I would recommend starting out with similar kinds of parameters that I had used.. or perhaps starting out with an earlier date in order to show how it would play out with a longer history.

Regarding the parameters to input and to start out with:

Day of the month:  Personally, I wouldn't want to pick the first day of the month, but maybe a date in the middle of the month or towards the end of the month. but if you want it to be consistent then maybe pick something like the 22th or some other date that would not be quite as common.... and I am a bit bothered about the idea of locking in sales all on one date, even though that is easier for an algorithm.  I agree with your assertion that we cannot really know when the dips and the raises are gong to be, but with an actual real world manual application, we might have a bit of an idea, and picking dates can help us to play the little gambling streak that so many folks have.. yeah of course, there may well be personalities (and maybe time constraints) in which they just want to get it done with and then to have that money in cash for the month.. but there also can be desires to spread it out during the month.. and to see what happens.. maybe take half out in the beginning of the month and then see how the other have of the month plays out.  

In my own rendition, I had put the date towards the end of the month because I was considering that various sales/withdrawals would be done at various points in the month in order to reach the maximum allowance for the month at some point towards the end of the month .. and so in my own hypothetical, if the maximum allowance for the month might be 0.064 BTC and then at some point of the month 0.02 BTC might get spent and then another point another 0.02 BTC and then at another point the remaining 0.02 BTC, and with an attempt to stay a little bit below the maximum authorization.  Yet, once all the spending for the month had been accomplished the next month would come and have an additional authorization for 0.063 BTC or some quantity of BTC that would be slightly reduced in terms of total withdrawal authorization amount, so part of the problem if the whole wadd were to be spent at one shot in the beginning of the month would mean a need to wait all the way until the next month before having another authorization.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.  

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

How much BTC and/or value to use:   Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location.  However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used).  

O.k. Here is my updated chart:



I added running total columns (E and J) that show the spot price amount withdrawn and the 200-WMA amount reduced.

We could start out with the same value of $500k in October 2022 or we could go back a whole 4-year cycle, and then the amount of starting out BTC would be different, but I am pretty sure that it will hold its value in terms of measuring the value from the 200-WMA, and we see that my limited chart, the 200-WMA value continues to go up, but I was using a 4% withdrawal rate and even quite below the authorized withdrawal rate.  I think that for any kind of algorithmic application of the formulas (and back testing it), it would be fair and reasonable to use a 6% withdrawal rate and then see how it plays out.

If we were to go back 4-years from now, of course, we would get into the whole calamity of the large correction that was in March 2020, so maybe we could either start from January 2020  or alternatively start from July 2020.

If we were to start from January 1, 2020, the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $5,084.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 98.35 BTC.  On the other hand, if we start with July 1, 2020 the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $6,114.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 81.78 BTC.

Hopefully all of this is not too crazy-sounding... but I am having quite a bit of confidence in the tool and the various formulas that we have chosen to provide guidance in terms of ways in which to withdraw BTC consistently, persistently and ongoingly while being able to retain dollar value in terms of measuring in terms of the 200-WMA, even if we were to use a 6% withdrawal rate.  

Another thing that seems to worry people is a potential need for the value of their overall BTC portfolio to continue to grow in terms of dollar value so that they will be able to withdraw more value in the future in order to keep up with the inevitable ongoing debasement of the dollar and the value of the dollar... and surely there could be needs to make adjustments to the withdrawal rate, yet I remain confident that currently, even with a 6 % withdrawal rate, the BTC holdings will hold their value and even sufficiently increase in value in regards to valuing holdings in light of the 200-WMA sufficiently enough in order to keep up with inflation (and/or the ongoing persistent and inevitable debasement of the dollar).  

I just went back and did a quick calculation that even starting from October 2022 and with 21 BTC, even if we would have withdrawn at a 6% per year rate, and just do a quickie calculation of 0.1 BTC per month (even though the tool recommends to reduce the rate of withdrawal once the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, but even if we withdrew 0.1 BTC for the last 17 months, we would end up with a reduction of our BTC holdings from 21 BTC to 19.3 BTC, and the 200-WMA value of the BTC holdings would have gone from $490k in October 2022 to $605k today.. of course BTC spot price is even greater, but this tool is attempting to help us to emphasize value based on the 200-WMA so that we are less likely to get caught up in the rash exuberance of BTC spot price changes, even though at the same time, we are advantaged to be able to sell BTC and to receive spot price which is usually (but not always) 25% or more higher than the 200-WMA.

See that experimental chart of 0.1 BTC withdrawal per month here:



Even though the flat rate is simpler to follow, it does not take advantage of either reductions or the advance months that the tool attempts to guide.. and of course, if we start with 0.1 BTC, in order to stick with 6%, we should be reducing the amount each month otherwise we are going to be withdrawing way more than 6%, but it still goes with my argument that it is my tentative conclusion that anywhere between 6% and 10% fit within levels of moderate sustainability.. and the more that you would use the guidelines of the tool, then the more likely you could gravitate more and more towards more aggressive levels of withdrawal while at the same time likely being able to retain the dollar value of your BTC holdings in light of its 200-WMA valuations.


It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Part of the reason for the highs and lows was to maybe sometimes to go back and compare the various actual prices of any particular day to the 200-WMA.. so sometimes the answer in the tool might not show all of the possibilities for the day, since sometimes authorizations for how many months in advance to withdraw or even if the amount of withdrawal might be reduced if the BTC price is below certain thresholds that we chose to use in the tool.


I see that in the saved inputs there seem to ONLY be 2, but wouldn't 3-4 inputs be possible?  or is it not possible to save or share 3 & 4?

1) withdrawal rate (percentage)

2) size of BTC stash

3) date

4) whether date is selected or not

Maybe 3 and 4 are just one field.

I am not opposed to something like that if you think that it might be more helpful than it is ending up to clutter.  When I first started out with the hypothetical 21 BTC, I was trying to show real world use in a kind of hypothetical but realistic kind of way too.. . and so yeah, I had not updated the amounts spent for December, January and February yet... but it would show ongoing spending within the boundaries of the monthly authorizations. and there could be some months in which some advance sales end up happening, too... but I am thinking tentatively to wait until either within the 200%-400% range (BTC spot price above 200-WMA) with 11 months of advance sales or the 400% to 650% range with 23 months in advance.... but yeah, maybe I am still not sure  about the advance month sales and then may be thinking if I do the advance sales then I would try to wait until the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range.

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there, and I cannot remember if there might have been something else.. or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

Of course one of bitcoin's advantages had been that it was a very new asset class and therefore a paradigm shifting technology, and so it is likely a bit unfair to measure bitcoin's performance to the other asset classes, especially starting bitcoin at less than a dollar or even if we might agree to start bitcoin at $5 in the beginning of 2012, that also might be a bit unfair, but at least we are starting from a positive value and bitcoin was still finding value and market price.  So yeah, if we start from $5 then bitcoin has 10,000x returns from the beginning of 2012.

But OP mentioned 10 years, but bitcoin was in a bit of a bouncing around period 10 years ago, so it is not really very fair to measure from the bounding around areas... If we use the 2013 top then we get less than 40x, and if we use $1k as our starting off point, then we get 50x.. but then maybe if we consider BTC's correction period between $160 and $300 for most of 2015, and then that would be a lot of time spent around $250, so then that would end up being around a 200x price appreciation over 8.5 years.. which seems a much more fair starting point for bitcoin. but  it still does not quite capture 10 years... and then when I go back and look at OPs numbers, he is picking the lowest correction point in 2014  and maybe that correction point of $160-ish was in January 2015.. . seems like he is just making shit up rather than attempting to be representative of more likely scenarios.. because no body bought bitcoin at the bottom.. it was a flash anyhow...so it would have been impossible to buy very much bitcoin at the exact peak of the bottom.

Even though bitcoin's upside potential has been dampened quite a bit from its beginning years, it is way from being a mature asset class, so bitcoin still likely has around 20,000x to increase in value, even though it could take 50 to 200 years to reach its fair value.

So how to go forward? Each of us has to decide, and yeah there are quite a few early adopters and even financial institutions and rich folks who starting to try to front load the investment and to front run the normies, while at the same time many of the longer term bitcoiners have already front run the BIGGER players.. and there probably is still a bit of time to continue to front run some of them, even though the news about bitcoin is getting spread more and more... but at the same time, everyone continues to both erroneously believe that they are too late and also to erroneously believe that bitcoin is a mature asset class... which it is far from mature.. but whatever, you don't have to believe me, you can either fail to invest in it or you can sell too much too soon because you misunderstand what bitcoin is and its ongoing upward potential.


Look at bitcoin's 200-WMA, and the lowest it has ever been is 20% per year... so yeah that is going to become less and less with the passage of time, but there is no real sign that bitcoin is diminishing as an asset class, and the 200-WMA is on track to finish this next six month anywhere between 32% and 44% annualized (measuring from the end of November 2023 to the end of May).. you can see on my entry-level fuck you status chart..


Bitcoin should be considered a long term investment of 4-10 years or longer, and you shoudl not be fucking around with selling any of it, and if you are tempted to take profits, that likely means that you invested too much, and you have to make sure you have your financial shit together so that you don't have to sell any of your bitcoin until a time of your choosing and hopefully longer than a full cycle.. and yeah if you keep accumulating until you reach a point in which you have too many bitcoin, then you would be at liberty to either start selling some or maybe diversifying into other investments.. but you have to get to the point of over accumulation before you start to screw around with selling merely because you happen to be in profits. .and if you don't have enough BTC, then it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to sell some of them because you might not be able to buy them back for at the same price or cheaper.. so you have to be careful with those kinds of practices in regards to bitcoin, especially if you don't have enough.


Yeah, a lot of people sold in 2017 too on the way up in the $1k to $3k range and they were thinking that they would buy back lower.. which frequently does not work out too well. Each of us should be careful when we sell expecting to buy back cheaper and thinking that we are gong to know when to buy back and how much of a dip there is going to be or how long it is going to last.

It is probably not that smart to try to trade one of the best (if not the best) asset that has ever been invented (discovered), and while the greatest wealth transfer in history is in the process of going on and will likely continue for the next 50 years or more, it is probably better to be on the receiving side of that wealth transfer... that is transferring wealth from no coiners and low coiners to those who are accumulating and holding coin.


Good luck with that.  10x is gold parrity, and bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold. .. so I will agree that we might have some troubles getting between 50x and 1000x gold (or it might take some time to play out)... but getting to gold parity and then also 10x better than gold should not be too big of a deal.. even though it could take 2-3 cycles... perhaps?  who knows how  long it will end up taking.. . but gold parity within this cycle is within grasp, but surely it is not guaranteed to happen, but gold parity would not even be close to bitcoin's top.

remember another thing is that there are currently around $ 1 quadrillion in monetized assets that could be bitcoin's target market.  Some people think that bitcoin's addressable market is higher than that, but I think that we would need to get a lot closer to that $1 quadrillion before starting to really consider how many multiples higher it would be able to go. (I am referring to today's dollars not dollar collapse scenarios, even though that will happen too.. even if it could take some time to happen).


Hopefully, you have fixed yourself since 2017-2018.. 

 but like you said, history repeats, and also the same mistakes of individuals repeat, too.  People continue to think bitcoin is mature, overpriced, a bubble, too late, and blah blah blah.. but it is not any of those this.  and it still is not, but still people will continue to either not invest or to sell to early... and sucks to be them.. because bitcoin still has a long way to go, even though it could take a while to get there.


The more I look at what OP did and some of the responses, it seems more and more that OP was spinning, being selective and not very representative.

WE probably could assert some kind of general averages.

1) cash probably is worth about half as much as it was in 2014

2) gold .. we can give him 2x.. no problem. .but since cash debased by half, that seems like a wash at best.

3) equities may have doubled or tripled.. but that would mean that they were just keeping up with inflation, and even if we say that some equities did 4x, then they Only did 2x in real terms if we account for the debasement of cash during the same period.

4) property.. I am not going to agree to 10x to 15x, but maybe we could estimate that they might have done 2x better than equities... on average... and yeah, I am just guessing too..

5) Bitcoin.. I like my 200x number better than op's 350x number since there were a lot of chances to buy BTC in 2015 around $250..

We still get bitcoin beating everything else by magnitudes.. but sure there are going to be some outliers with properties and equities that might have come close to bitcoin's performance, but as a general proposition bitcoin bet everything else.. and bitcoin was generally open to everyone.. just that some folks might have had some difficulties with the technology and their local jurisdiction.. whether there were places to buy it (or people who would sell it for any normie who might have had wanted it.).


Yep, and it sounds like you are going to sell too much too soon, but hey do what you like.  If you believe $100k to $150k is enough for your cornz, then it's your choice.  good luck with that.  You will likely need it.


If you account for the debasement of the dollar, you likely are not making money in all, especially in real terms rather than nominal terms.

Bitcoin has ongoing good chances to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and also to outperform the dollar's level of persistent, consistent and inevitably ongoing debasement.  Good luck if you are investing in that other stuff.


FTFY

The most you can lose is 100% of what you invested, as long as you are not so dumb as to use leverage, then you can lose more than 100%.  Don't be dumb.. just invest regularly.. whle being as aggressive as you can but without devolving into gambling practices, such as using leverage... and such as not maintaining an adequate emergency fund of 3-6 months or more, reserves and float.


If someone only has $10 to $50 per week to diversify, it is kind of dumb to diversify.. .and maybe after a year or two of building their investment portfolio, then diversification might start to make sense.  So start with bitcoin, and don't be diluting your investment, merely because people suggest it to be the right thing to do.. when it is not..  Once you get your bitcoin investment and your emergency fund up to around 6 months each, then maybe at that time you might start to consider some value in diversification, but even then it is not necessary until you start to feel over exposed in one asset, which could take several years before diversification starts to make sense.

But yeah if you don't know what you are investing in and you are afraid of bitcoin then maybe diversify and dilute your investment so much that you might not end up getting much benefit from anything that you are invested into... it is better to buy bitcoin and then learn about it as you go so you end up figuring out why it is not necessary to diversify until you get up to a certain size of a portfolio.. such as 6 months or more of your income/expenses..


People who only have $10 to $50 per week are not going to be able to invest into real estate.

Maybe just in sum the guy is wrong and does not seem to know what he is talking about since if his expected income is between $75k and $150, then with a 4% withdrawal rate he would ONLY need between $2 million and $4million.

This is how it goes for a 4% withdrawal rate:

$1 million = $3,333 per month and $40k per year

$2 million = $6,666 per month and $80k per year

$3 million = $10k per month and $120k per year

$4 million = $13,333 per month and $160k per year

$5 million = $16,666 per month and $200k per year

If his money is in BTC, with the 200-WMA, he would only need 64 BTC to reach the $2 million and then if he is ONLY withdrawing at 4%, the dollar value of his holdings is likely going to grow faster than his withdrawal of the BTC, so the BTC will keep up with inflation.. but yeah, he would have to have enough BTC in order to start such a process, and if he is in dollars and dollar-related investments, he might need closer to $4million to make sure that his investments keep up... but I doubt that he needs $5million, unless he is trying to cushion for increases in his income.. which surely in terms of dollars we are likely going to need into the future.. so we might have to take that into account if we are exercising a 4% withdrawal rate.

One of the advantages is that the coins of all of the remaining holders become more valuable when fewer coins are available / accessible (lost).  Sure the disadvantage to the family or the potential heirs, but it is not necessarily obvious that the heirs deserved the BTC more than the overall bitcoin community.  Some people could purposefully die with their coins because they would like to overall give to the whole bitcoin community rather than giving their coins to a presumptive heir.  So there could be a question regarding whether the passing down of the coins to the whole bitcoin community was done on purpose or accidentally, but bitcoin does not care, because if those coins are not recoverable, then bitcoin has just become more scarce.


Yep was it a mistake or on purpose, and since bitcoin cannot figure it out the difference, there is no recovery of the coins.


If you get into bitcoin and you are in your early 20s, you may well already consider that your timeline might be able to be longer, but yeah if you come into bitcoin and you are already in your mid 40s you might consider that you might not want to have a timeline that is more than 20 years..

Of course there can be all kinds of variations, and even if you invest with a long timeline, you are not locked into the funds, so even if you might treat it as a retirement fund (or a fuck you status fund), but if you are able to achieve a level of financial wealth that allows you to start to withdraw from the funds and to have more options, then you will likely be grateful for that.. and if you are investing $10 per week and 1 year is $520 and 10 years is $5,200 and 30 years is $15,600, you may well not have a lot of funds?  We cannot know for sure if BTC might go up in value a lot after you invested in it or maybe it goes up while you are investing so you don't have as much of your value that experiences the compounding effects because you are investing such small amounts.


Of course you have total optionality to cash out as soon as you want, to and there are a lot of people who end up cashing out way too many bitcoin too soon and then they regret it later, and maybe you will become one of them.  It is your choice and you have to live with the consequences.. and sometimes BTC holder/accumulators cash out for some relatively small amount, and then the BTC shot up 20x and they could have cashed out 20x higher, but they did not have patience.. so that is their problem.. and sometimes it had even been like 200x or more higher that they could have had received, but they were happy with their profits and they cashed out.. yeah.. its their choice and they do not recognize and appreciate the mistake until later, but sometimes they recognize and appreciate the mistake, but they keep doing the same thing..

You said it, and we disagree.

One thing is measuring the wealth and then another thing is to have various management strategies around that, whether it is just holding your coins, raking small or large portions and/or sustainable withdrawal methods.

How you value your wealth might affect some of the methods/strategies more than other methods of strategies.

Maybe if you are holding for the long term, then you just wait for certain price points to sell some or all of your BTC, then that would be a kind of raking strategy.

Or if you believe you never have to sell any BTC because you will just earn money off of it or use it for collateral, then there is nothing wrong with that strategy, as an alternative to raking and/or sustainable withdrawal..


Yes, your wealth and your liquid wealth are going to change based on various changes, and if something is more liquid then you have options to sell or buy more of it, but it does not necessarily mean that you are going to exercise such power, even though by definition the more liquid it is, the more you are able to accomplish such selling relatively quickly  so you can consider the changes in your wealth based on BTC spot price changes and realizing that you can cash out at any time,. but if you are not fucking around in that direction, then it seems better to measure it with something more solid, like the 200-WMA .. .. and you can keep both concepts in mind at the same time, if you want to .. why would it have to be all or nothing... you can even divide your stash in different kinds of ways, including putting in various barriers in order to make parts of your BTC stash less liquid... but if you know that you hold the keys, then you likely will have more power over assuring that you hold the value versus if you hold some (if not all) of your cornz with a 3rd party custodian, and you might even erroneously count the value of those coins the same, which maybe for all intents and purposes they end up being pretty much the same.



AlcoHoDL was talking about 4x to 5X spot price, so we were not really talking so much about 4x to 5x the 200-WMA, even though the formulas of my sustainable withdrawal system contemplate authorizing higher levels of withdrawal (advance withdrawal) based on how high the spot price is above the 200WMA.  From the website:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

>>>>>>A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<

So you see that 400% to 650% above the 200-WMA allows the withdrawal of 23 months in advance.

Each person can choose whether and how to play these kinds of suggested ways to manage your BTC holdings..


I think that we are not really talking about BTC accumulation.  That's another story... and we are not talking about trading either.. even though sometimes maintenance and management of holdings can sometimes appear to be similar to trading.... yet I wouldn't consider it in that way.

I think with these kinds of tools and even with AlcoHoDL's presumptions, we are largely talking about managing our holdings and then setting budgets for ourselves to shave off some of our BTC from time to time, and maybe even considering ways to NOT shave off too many cornz at once.

DCA and accumulation is another story. and not completely unrelated, but we have a bit of a presumption that we have already accumulated enough BTC and maybe even more than enough BTC... .

Snd maybe shortly talking about DCA and accumulation, I frequently suggest that newbies attempt to be as aggressive as they can in their BTC accumulation journey without overdoing it, so that could be a combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips, and then once they get to enough BTC accumulation (or even over doing their accumulation levels) then they might have more options, however, if they have ONLY been in bitcoin a short period of time, they might need to allow some time to pass before they are ready to transition into something that might be characterized as maintenance and/or liquidation.. ..

but even before they get to any kind of a strict liquidation phase, they might still need to spend some time in a kind of maintenance stage that might still allow for both accumulation BTC along the way and perhaps liquidate some of the their holdings too, and a maintenance stage might still emphasize on one side or the other (on the accumulation side or on the liquidation side) or maybe it is neutral in which it is trying to maintain some kind of dollar value that is pegged to something  (and might that not be the 200-WMA?), which then we might thereby get back to figuring out valuations and how we might want to peg our value, so if might enter into fuck-you status at a $2 million valuation, then we might allow our valuation to grow and maybe our value floats between $2 million and $4 million in terms of the 200-WMA valuation, and maybe we end up trying to keep our valuation in the middle of that range (meaning keeping our value held in BTC at $3 million in light of the 200-WMA), yet the whole time we might continue to withdrawal on a monthly basis or some other regularity until we keep the BTC value within our preferred range and maybe that ends up being right around $3million like I said, even if we might have had entered at $2 million  .  and, yeah, maybe I am making it too complicated by upwardly adjusting the number and allowing growth of value.. but there might not be any need for the value of the holdings to continue to grow beyond the $2 million entry valuation point,;..

Maybe instead, once the guy considers that he has reached entry-level fuck you status at $2 million, he withdraws in accordance with just trying to keep his 200-WMA valuation right around $2 million on an ongoing basis, and maybe he only gives himself a $100k buffer on either end.  There are all kinds of discretionary choices that guys can make in terms of if they are still wanting their fund to grow while they are withdrawing or if they want to make it stable and then maybe later in life they might start to draw down on principle, especially if they might be considering that their life is coming to an end or other reasons to draw down on principle.

 I am still going to argue that it is way better to be using the 200-WMA rather than spot price for these kinds of longer term maintenance and management of BTC holdings valuations, but if you have some other system that involves BTC spot price that floats your boat, then so be it, yet I don't think that spot price serves very well in that regard, especially in bitcoinlandia from my own perspective and my own presentation of tools that help to navigate BTC valuations and portfolio management in light of 200-WMA valuations that I consider to be much more reliable in order to measure from more or less bottoms rather than tops (or the all over the place of spot price that is inevitable to keep going crazily up and crazily down for the next 10-20 years or longer,

and if the BTC spot price becomes more stable, I might choose adjust my thinking on the topic (though I doubt it.. especially since it is not likely to become more stable in the next 10-20 years so why concede that in advance), otherwise why not stick with some way of valuating dee cornz that we already know (by definition) to be way the fuck more consistent and stable?  which is the 200-WMA. Why do we want to create drama and stress upon ourselves when we have a killer-ass tool that has a lot of power in its usability for anyone who is ready, willing and/or able to learn how to do it.. rather than just whining about what if bitcoin prices go from $50k to $20k and then to $100k in a day.. yeah, and maybe you are arguing my point with your lame-ass example about how the BTC price is all over the place, and the 200-WMA is hardly going to move during that whole process.. It may well just continue to trickle up around $33 per day (currently)...

and yeah, maybe the BIGGEST fear would be that the BTC spot price goes down rather than UP.. because we already have prepared for UP, and if the BTC price goes down to $20k and then just gets stuck there.. then what? We maybe cannot sell any BTC until the BTC price gets back within less than 30% below the 200-WMA.. My tool has formulas to account for those kinds of variables, too.

>>>>A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<

If you don't like those suggestions in regards to how to manage your holdings (presumptively already in fuck you status or some variation in which you are already able to do some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of coins), then you can do something else. 

I know that I had already had a portion of my BTC holdings already following some variation of the above formula in late 2022 and early 2023.. and the sales were very small.. and most likely there were other aspects of the budget that were buyig way more than selling.  It is kind of reflected in the hypothetical 21 BTC budget chart posted on this post that might need to be updated at some point.

Just because someone lives with his parents does not signify that his parents would necessarily serve as his emergency fund.

But we might be able to assume from the posts that some of the expenses are less than they would be if teamsherry were to NOT live with his parents.

Sure guys should take advantage of whatever benefits that he has available, and of course, when dealing with other people and relations, we might want to make sure that we are not taking advantage of them since those kinds of negative dynamics can also mess up our own credibility and impressions that others have about our abilities to be responsible for our own finances. So it is quite likely that even if we life with our parents, we should be striving to figure out budgetary matters (and perhaps even contributing to the house expenses) and figuring out out emergency fund, reserve funds and float.. and maybe projecting out into the future regarding our income and expenses, and surely young people will sometimes not have as much cash because they are spending time to build their job skills and maybe seeking out education and training that may well improve their future income even though their current income might suffer due to their receiving such training.


Yes, there can be questions regarding how to manage your BTC holdings and questions regarding whether it is ever a good idea to sell 50% of your BTC holdings in one setting, unless you might have too many BTC... and so there can be questions regarding how many BTC you need and whether you have too many and do you have so many BTC that you can feel comfortable shaving off 50% at one price point.

The longer that you have been in BTC and the more BTC that you have accumulate, the more you might be able to justify selling off decently large amounts, yet even $100k does not seem to be a very high price, and there seems like there could be way more reasonable ways to manage your BTC holdings, even perhaps starting selling at $80k and spreading out your sales.. maybe 5% every time the BTC price goes up 25%, even that seems like a lot of sales (from my perspective), but it may well be more reasonable than selling a bunch (such as 50% at $100k) at one price point and then never being able to get those BTC back.

So, we know that each person has to make these kinds of assessments, and historically, we have seen a lot of examples guys selling way too many BTC too soon and then regretting it later... maybe within months or maybe even years later.


There are likely some people who have lost their coins and who don't even realize it, and part of the problem is that they might think that they know how to access their coins, but they might not access them frequently enough in order to make sure that they do not end up losing access or even overly-complicating their BTC storage set up so that they end up locking themselves out of their own coins.


I will take a look at that thread later, yet I am familiar with those kinds of comparison numbers, and yeah bitcoin has outperformed all assets, especially the longer the timeline, and there are no signs that bitcoin is not going to continue to outperform all other assets..

One of the advantages that bitcoin has is that it is still in fairly early adoption stages, so even though there are not guarantees that BTC price will continue to exponentially go up with ongoing increases in network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer), there is no evidence to the contrary regarding bitcoin's asymmetric bet to the upside in the coming 5-20 years or more.


We have to still remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.. so we have to figure out a position size that it comfortable and appropriate for ourselves.


That sounds right, and guys should be tailoring to their personal circumstances to try to be as aggressive as they can without overdoing it.. which sometimes they won't realize they overdid it until they find themselves in a situation in which they made the mistake... so frequently it takes patience to build up your holdings, and sometimes it might be good to earn extra money, but sometimes there are needs to invest in your education and/or improve yourself so that you can earn more later or that you improve some of your skills... so it is not always clear, including that some guys come to bitcoin without any other investments and other guys come to bitcoin while already having investments.. so they would likely have different approaches based on their circumstances when coming to bitcoin.

It is not meaningless.  It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it.

Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates?

In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status.


I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline...

so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k.

Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments.

So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that.


I don't see what purpose your advice is having here?   except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable  to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings.


Ouch!!!!  That would hurt to have something like that.  Thank god it's not Thursday.

Who is calling the kettle black?

I have no problem with the idea of having an extra tax cushion, but you are still not getting to the essential question regarding any kind of BTC valuation plan that presumes mostly holding the BTC rather than selling it all.

We are not selling all of our BTC, even though we are using our BTC to figure out when we reach entry-level fuck you status.

Sure another thing is that we likely have other assets, but if the only thing that we have is bitcoin and cash then surely we can add in some extra for taxes or other expenses, but if we might be considering withdrawing from $2million at the traditional rates of 4% per year which would be $6,666 per month, then yeah we would have to figure out our tax consequences in the event that might be gross rather than net withdrawal.. I think that many of my presumptions is that we are referring to gross rather than net... but I also think that if you are using 4% as your withdrawal rate then you are likely in a very conservative withdrawal mode and either your BTC can grow a lot more or you could actually withdraw way more than your what you perceive to be your budget since you would only be withdrawing 4%, but the dollar value is much more, even right now it would be close to $11k per month rather than $6,666, since the BTC spot price is 63% above the 200-WMA (using 64 BTC as the current default entry-level fuck you status).

You can see it your lil selfie right here by plugging in the numbers. 


You are not following.

You are using spot price rather than 200-WMA, like me

And alternatively, you are not using AlcoHoDL's 5x spot price system.. which seems to currently be right around 145 BTC based on the last ATH price of $69k and using $10million as entry-level fuck you status.

Neither of us were suggesting to use BTC spot price to figure out entry-level fuck you status or even to be planning to sell very large portions of our cornz.. as you seem to be suggesting to cash it all out. and then what? suffer with $2million dollars... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars?  Yeah, sure there are guys out there who are wanting to do that, but that's not what either AlcoHoDL or I had been getting at..and maybe that's why it is seeming to be overly complicated from your spot price focused perspective.


I am not sure what you are getting at, but yeah selling 81 BTC would get you right around $4.15 million in dollars (gross before taxes), but who is wanting to do that? even if any of us were to have 81 BTC.


I am not sure how looking at spot fixes anything, especially if we are not cashing out of our BTC from here.  But, hey do what you like.


Of course we sell at spot, and so that could be put in our budget if we might aim for selling a certain amount of bitcoin at certain prices, and that may well be a different strategy to pull out some BTC at various prices versus if we were going to do it in a regular and sustainable way, and I am not even saying that one is better than the other, but they have differing frameworks in terms of how to treat your holdings.

If we were going to do the lump sum sale, then yeah, we could do that as a kind of raking technique (something like this) rather than a monthly way of thinking about BTC withdrawals.


Well one thing could be deciding when to pull the fuck you lever..

And, then the other thing is continuing to make it work while you are in it, and I would hope that we have assets or income sources other than BTC, but that could be part of the reason that we might want to have something like $10 million to serve as our entry-level fuck you status rather than $2 million, even though we might consider $2 million as enough to maintain our standard of living....

Anyone is going to have this as a bit of a dilemma.. because no one is really going to want to end up having to go back to work because he pulled the fuck you status too soon, and then if he is out of work for a few years, he might have trouble getting back into his previous field.. without taking a large pay cut or having to endure a lot more training or whatever.


Of course, we know that the number of BTC required to reach fuck you status has been ongoingly dropping, and there is nothing really indicating that the trend is going to stop.. so if we have enough of a cushion then we should be good... but at the same time in terms of this thread, there are going to be guys working up to the levels in which they measure their entrance to fuck you status.. and so the same questions regarding how many is enough.. and even though I am saying that 64 is enough right now for the default entry level fuck you status, it is going to take a few years before 21 is going to be enough... right around late 2028, the way it is looking from the fuck you status chart.. that is also very much an estimate that may or may not be accurate.. but we see the trend, I think that there is some reason to have some kind of quasi- (or semi- as you say).. reliance on some of these kinds of formulas, absent some on the ground changes in facts and/or theory that would end up changing our wannabe sorcerer attempts at predictions.


I also think that once you get to the amount, you may well be able to structure it so that it is still growing with inflation, as long as you have a solid cushion and/or plan which it seems that both you (AlcoHoDL) and I have attempted to account for ongoing BTC volatility so our entry level fuck you status numbers have a lot of cushion and are likely to continue to grow our pots  in order to account for worldly uncertainties... and sometimes we might even figure out that we are too conservative, but that's o.k. as long as we don't end up dying with too much of our wealth (more than we want to have at that point).

I admire guys who have podcasts and who pull off good content on a regular basis.. It would be a lot of work.


It is difficult to completely flesh out the circumstances, but it seems that at least Hypos 1, 2 and 4 have come to BTC with enough capital and had invested somewhat aggressively and have had a sufficient amount of time pass in their investment, so it starts to seem that they may well have enough BTC in light of their own situations at the time that they came into bitcoin.  Each person has to assess, but I am describing situations in which they may well reasonably come to conclusions that they have enough BTC and they may well not need to accumulate any more BTC....

Of course there are going to be guys that do not need that many coins, especially if they might live in a lower cost of living area, or they might have expectations in which they might ONLY want to spend around $40k per year rather than $100k per year.. or whatever their monthly/annual budget might be.


Yep.. if you are able to lump sum and/or front load your BTC investment, there are likely going to be advantages in that.  The ability to supplement with DCA and buying on dips surely helps if the BTC price runs against you after you have made your lump sum buys.


I will see if (or when) I am able to do it, and if it might make sense to make that additional comparison.


It can be very difficult to get back your principle if you lose it.. especially if you think about any of the guys Hypo 1 through 6.  They had 10 and 5 years investing into bitcoin respectively, and if they lost their BTC, they may well not be able to get them back anywhere close to the prices that they bought them.

Since you made an artsy-fartsy-feedback statement, I feel inclined to do the same.

I would like both green and red, and I would also like less redundancy.  In other words I do not like the repetition of 2013 and 2024, so if there are going to be 4 edges to the star, then 2013 and 2024 on two of the edges seems appropriate... but then what could go on the other edges?  maybe just blank green?.. or alternating green and red...

but the text cannot be the same. unless there is a green 2013 and a red 2013 and the same would be true for the 2024.. but that still seems redundant in terms of substantive content. .. every 4 years, would be 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025, but then it would be a future star that anticipates the what's going to come.. something about wannabe sorcerer.


You must be new here.


It looks like, in part, you already anticipated some aspect of my thinking about the colors. but they probably still would be good to incorporate just the green and the red.. .. yet I am no where near to a "real" artist.


I think that a lot of us longer timers are not necessarily considering BIG lump sum withdrawals, even though you seem more inclined to some level of lump sum withdrawals.. but if you are already getting to a stage of not knowing what to do with that, then maybe you might need to start some kind of sustainable withdrawal.. I don't consider it to be unreasonable, yet you still seem to be inclined towards some kind of chunking out.. which sure that is all fine and dandy I suppose.. but you are still trying to figure out where to put it..

and yeah, you can hold onto dollars.. let's say that you cash out 20% or 25% or some variation of that.. and so if the price corrects, you just get more bitcoin, but you already feel that you have enough BTC, but then if the price keeps going up, will you have regrets about having had cashed out that many BTC?  ONLY you can answer those kinds of questions.

but yeah, each of us has to probably figure out additional ways to spend, which is maybe a bit outside of what it took for us to get to where we are at.... but if you have good ways to assess your BTC value, then maybe it does not hurt to just put your self on a budget in which you have an extra several thousand a month.. or whatever might be your amount.. and maybe you just put part of your bitcoin holdings into some kind of sustainable withdrawal and the rest just sits there or maybe you play around with that other part by trying to sell and then buy back.. so maybe that would make 3 parts: 1) just hold, 2) sustainable withdrawal and 3) play around.. and you can pick your ratios, so that it is not all or nothing or that you are not too emotionally attached to any portion of what you are doing.. .and personally, I would not want to play around with more than 10%, but some folks might be wiling to allocate 25% or even 33.3% for playing around.


$60k is in no man's land, so I have my doubts that it is very accurate to be suggesting that bitcoin is hanging around anywhere between $55k and $82k, even though sure there could end up being some sticking points, yet even if there are some sticking points, it is not a very hanging out place.. . #justsaying #a little friend told me this

Of course, we do not know the future with any kind of precision, but in 20 years, it is quite possible that anyone trying to reach entry-level fuck you status, would ONLY need  less than 2 BTC.. .. actually 1.672 BTC to be more precise - and so if you are aiming for 8 BTC, then you likely would be nearly 5x more bitcoin than needed to be at entry-level fuck you status.

I think that my main point is that you likely do not need as many BTC as you believe, but surely it does not hurt to accumulate extra because we cannot really know about future projections, yet if the future projections play out in terms of BTC price performance and in terms of your ability to accumulate BTC, at some point the paths should end up crossing, and it would be nice for the paths to cross earlier rather than later, but we do have to attempt to prepare ourselves for a variety of possible scenarios, so it likely does not hurt to overly prepare and then end up arriving sooner than expected, so long as we do not end up blowing up our own situation through some kind of devolution into gambling strategies rather than investing strategies.

Another thing that if your goal is to accumulate more than 8 BTC in 20 years, that is surely quite ambitious... but it is not impossible.. yet I would imagine that you would need to get up to being able to invest $500 or more per week, and that still might not get you up to 8 BTC in 20 years, and yeah if you are not yet up to those kinds of levels, you would be figuring out ways to work yourself up to those kinds of levels... and it would be difficult to consistently invest such high levels - though not impossible if someone already has a decent income and/or low expenses, but even if someone is living with their parents, they might not allow you to live rent-free for a long period of time, especialloy if they were to be able to figure out that you were investing $500 per week or more into bitcoin.


If you spend, 10 to 20 to 30 years investing into bitcoin, and if you start out with bitcoin as your only investment, surely in the first 5-10 years there may be periods in which you might feel that you are not making progress, but then at some point you might start to feel that you have enough BTC,. and even if you are not quite at the level in which you are going to want to start to cash out some of your BTC, you might at least start to choose to invest into other things so that you feel less overexposed to bitcoin.

And mostly HOLDing through a period in which BTC prices go way up and way down takes a bit of commitment to the idea that it is just better to mostly be HOLDing.  You likely have to have systems in place that allow you to do such a thing, and there are quite a few bitcoiners who are similar to me, and some of them were on this forum complaining that they did not sell more during the peak.. so sometimes there can be some regrets about missing such BIG trade opportunities, but even if you sell, you could end up selling too soon and then also not really know how to play it.. when to buy back and how to buy back, so it surely can be difficult to get anywhere close to the top in terms of selling and to get anywhere near the bottom in terms of using those proceeds to buy back.... so sometimes there can be more comfort in terms of not even trying to play those kinds of games with your BTC, unless you are just using a small portion of your BTC to do that, but at the same time, if you have not reached your accumulation target, it makes even less sense to be selling if you feel that you don't yet have enough BTC.


The whole matter of death is tricky.. because perhaps you would like to pass your BTC on to some heirs at the time of your death, but you do not want them to have access prior to your death. 

So if you have such a preference to pass on your bitcoin, then you have to make sure that you leave sufficiently clear instructions, and at the same time, if some of the instructions are not clear and if some of the details (about how to access your coins - and to show where they are at) might change, so you have to update your instructions.. but at the same time make sure no one can get your instructions prior to your death.. since maybe you might fear the wrong person finding your instructions if those are instructions are too clear, then the wrong person can get your coins, either before or after you die.

I doubt the solutions are even as clear as some folks would like to believe them to be, and sometimes people are not even clear about who they might want to have their coins.. it is not an obvious answer to everyone and the answer may well change over time, even if someone is able to answer one way at time one, they might have changes in their opinion, so they might be reluctant to even lock into their intentions, and presuming that they will have time to figure that out later.. which we know that there are quite a few times that death comes quickly rather than letting you know that it is on its way.. and even when it let's you know, there are some folks who are in denial about their death and/or demise all the way to the end.


Of course new cars are quite a depreciating asset, they are very expensive to have and maintain, but at the same time, they frequently can have quite a bit of utility value and just convenience.

No one can really tell anyone else about whether it is better to invest more and consume less or maybe to do the opposite, consume more and invest less, and sometimes we might not know the ramifications of our investment/consumption levels until much down the road, and there is quite a bit of value in having options down the road so that we might have the option to not have to work or to choose the kind of work that we do.

Time does fly by fast, and there are some folks who end up dying before they are able to enjoy their fortunes, so there are a lot of personal trade offs, yet one really powerful thing about bitcoin does seem that it has had some abilities to move quite a few people (mostly the accumulators and HODLers) into a higher financial status than they would have had ever been able to achieve through various traditional investment methods, so in that regard, there is a lot of power in that kind of transfer of wealth, and even though the upside potential of bitcoin is likely reduced, it still retains a very strong investment thesis..

whether anyone is young, middle aged or old, and yeah of course, frequently we talk about having at least a 4-10 year investment timeline or longer, so there sometimes can be questions regarding anyone who starts to get into their 60s in regards to if they might be able to continue to consider themselves as having at least a 4 year investment timeline, and that may well have to do with the level of their health and if they might have other sources of income in which they are able to draw that would mean that they could allow their investment in bitcoin to ride for at least 4 years but surely better to have longer time than 4 years, especially if anyone is DCA investing for 4-10 years or longer, then each time they buy more BTC, they would need to justify having at least a 4 year timeline from each new purchase in order to be long term investing rather than trading, gambling and/or playing the price waves that may or may not end up working out and usually not good for older people to be playing with their retirement funds like that.

That's even more looney than my attempt to summarize it, even though it seems to end up with similar results - except the locking in factor seems it even more unrealistic to attempt to apply, even though surely it may well end up working out because if you have reached the 5x entry-level fuck you status for the peak, then that should mean that you should not go below actual fuck you status, unless the BTC price were to dip below 80% from the ATH... It kind of reminds me of nominal inflation versus real inflation, but maybe I am just having troubles getting it to sink in.

If we use our $100k from earlier, your assertion was that many folks would cross over fuck you status at this point... so that still would be implying a need to have 100 BTC, in terms of your formula.. .. so maybe it is even safer and even more conservative than using the 200-WMA..... and people do have a tendency to want to focus on tops rather than bottoms, so it could actually be appealing in that sense... so maybe I can lighten up to it.?  Perhaps? perhaps?


I guess the net sum of your approach seems like it is more conservative if you just look at the last cycle, but I think that if you look more closely at prior cycles, you will find your approach is likely not as conservative as you are making it out to be, even though there is likely a decent amount of appeal that people have to track the ATH rather than the moving averages.. and probably that's what bothers me about any approach that tries to coordinate strategies with tops rather than with bottoms (or at least the 200-WMA reflects an average over 4 years rather than some potentiality that your system might have in terms of getting caught into the waves of ATHs that might cause your ATH tracer to become too optimistic.

Maybe we can do a quick look at the 2017 ATH.. it was $19,666, so based on that, your 5x ATH would require you to have 515 BTC, although back then maybe we would have used $1 million rather than $2 million as our entry-level fuck you status, so we could cut that in half to be 267.5 BTC.

In regards to the 200-WMA, on December 17, 2017, the 200-WMA was ONLY $1,221 (you can plug in the specific dates here), so that would mean that for the 200-WMA it would have taken 1,640 BTC for a $2 million entry-level fuck you status and it would have taken 820 BTC for a $1 million entry-level fuck you status.. so there goes your claim to conservativism, because in 2017, the 200-WMA would have had been more than 3x more conservative than your 5x on the spot price theory... and so yeah, the blow off top of 2017 was way the fuck more explosive than the blow off top of 2021, so if we end up getting a blow off top that is more explosive than 2021, then your 5x spot price theory may well end up being less conservative than using the 200-WMA..

And, yeah, maybe we are quibbling over inconsequentialisms  and so who is going to know for sure the extent to which the blow of top of this cycle is going to be particularly crazy in order to contribute to your system being less conservative than using the 200-WMA.  I am getting more and more tired just thinking about it - because I just have troubles pegging to something like the spot price when the 200-WMA is way more reliable.. and you also have other WMAs that you could do that would bring you closer to spot price but take out some of the extremes.. such as the 100 WMA, the 50-WMA, and the 20-WMA... .. anyhow, I personally find those lower number WMAs to be way more volatile, so that is what makes that 200-WMA to be so dope. and plus if we use the 200-WMA, we are more aligned with our favorite soothsayer wannabe.. namely PlanB.  


Of course in that chart, in reference to the past, it just shows the facts in terms of the specific dates, and I pick every 6 months randomly, since it very well be that the chart could be updated every day to show the slow changes, but I pick 6 months in order to attempt to be somewhat more granular than annual, but not so granular as to get lost in the details, since the data can be updated on a daily basis since currently the 200-WMA is going up about $33 per day, and in the depths of our dip below the 200-WMA in late 2022, it was only going up around $10 per day... so it could get a bit granular to be adding every day, and surely I could add some more columns, or maybe we can create some extra work for you and you can you should show your columns, since I doubt that your idea (or your columns) is (are) going to play out to be as conservative as you think that it will merely because you seem to be tracking from what the ATH did in 2021 rather than going back to earlier ATHs.

So when it comes to my attempts to project the future, I updated my chart a couple of times to attempt to make it more conservative, and surely I may well have over done it in terms of my level of conservatism, especially since we know this particular cycle is inline to potentially have much greater price appreciations and we are even on track to have something in the ballpark of 18%-24% for this particular 6 month period rather than 16%, which would be 36% to 48% annualized rather than 32% annualized, but in my last adjustment to the chart, I wanted to error on the conservative side.. but it still ends up being a projection of the future 200-WMAs that are way less than scientific (so you see I am attempting to project the 200-wma and I am in no fucking way trying to project BTC spot prices, even though spot prices higher than the 200-WMA is built into the assumption that 200-WMAs only go up because spot price goes up), and it just seems way the hell easier to attempt to track the variation in the 200-WMA rather than attempting to track the variation in what the BTC spot price might end up doing in terms of the next ATH or any other place that the BTC spot price will be at any given 6 month snapshot.

And even if someone is already measuring his reaching entry-level fuck you status based on the 200-WMA, it seems that once he is into entry-level fuck you status, then he is in, and even though we have no guarantees that the 200-WMA will continue to stay positive, it seems he is not going to be out, once he is in.. since also, so far the lowest annual rate of increase of the 200-WMA was in the period between June 2022 and November 2023, when it achieved ONLY an annualized increase per year of 20%.. .so that is still pretty damned good and still leaves a lot of cushion for anyone who might be making withdrawals of his BTC once he has determined himself to be in fuck you status.. especially if he is sticking with traditional 4% levels of conservativism, even though I am suggesting 6% to 10% to be sustainable withdrawal rates.

In my own system in which I thereafter suggest authorization levels for withdrawal of your BTC, once you have gotten into fuck you status, there is permission to do full withdrawals as long as the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA, and then there are reductions of the amount that can be withdrawn if the BTC spot price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA.

Maybe we are just quibbling about how secure any guy might feel if he ONLY has the minimum entry-level of fuck you status which is currently 64 BTC, as you mentioned, and from my thinking that seems to be more of a factor of being insecure with $2 million as entry-level fuck you status in terms of if you believe that $6,666 per month is not enough, so if you need $10k per month then so be it, your own personal entry-level fuck you status should be $3 million rather than $2 million... and then if you are questioning whether $3 million is going to keep up with the standard of living, then maybe you are not understanding the charts, if you are withdrawing at 4% per year, but the lowest level of BTC's annualized 200-Week MA has been 20%, and the annualized appreciation is on track to be anywhere between 36% and 44% for this upcoming 6 months, then you seem to be failing and/or refusing to accept and recognize king daddy's actual ongoing power that does not seem to be weakening... there are no real and/or meaningful signs of any such weakening, so you should be able to rely on structuring your own finances around such ongoing averages.


It makes some sense, but it still remains troubling for this here cat.

No problem.  I had been trying to highlight some of the area where I perceived us to be thinking about some of these matters differently, and even my assessment of the difference might not be correct, since sometimes meaning and/or intention can be lost in writing.


It can be a bit strange because I had been attempting to add some presumptions, and surely some of the budgeting matters are intended to have some relations within the timelines and then maybe even showing that even if a later entrant comes into BTC, they are likely going to need to have a BIGGER budget than the guy from the earlier timeline, and even with an earlier budget, the later entrant guys might not have much if any chance to actually catch up to the earlier time guys who might have even had a smaller budget. 

I had been thinking about attempting to get into some comparisons with some of the earlier arguments that you seemed to have been making about a kind of preferably for lump sum, and it does not seem easy to really show my counter-arguments with examples, and one of the defects with the current hypotheticals as they all currently stand is that there is they all include DCA.. even the Lump sum guys of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are including DCA.. so they do a lump sum and then they DCA thereafter.

I was thinking that maybe even with Hypos 1, 4 & 7, there could be another hypo added that might be labelled as Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a, and so the underlying presumption would be that if we can already figure out their total investment, then we can figure out the amount that they invested per year, so 10 years, versus 5 years versus 2.5 years, and perhaps, our Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a would ONLY invest in BTC with a lump sum of 1 year's investment amount, and then they would thereafter just sit on their investment.. so they have pretty much invested a whole year of their investment budget at time 1, and so presumptively, they are going to end up with a lower cost per BTC, but they are going to have way fewer BTC, and so part of my point would be to attempt to show that it is not always advantageous to just invest one time in a lump sum kind of a way (even if you are able to do it), and the ones that supplement with DCA and even the ones with a lower budget may well end up spending way more on their BTC (even per BTC), but in the longer run, may of us would have rather been the guy with more BTC, even if our costs per BTC would have had been higher than the lump sum only guys.


It seem that I already took your advice on the point of having a place to reference these hypos, and that was part of the reason that I added the hypos to opening post 2 of my investment ideas thread.

So tentatively, I am considering the possibility of adding Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a in order to juxtapose a lump sum ONLY example.. but then also I had been considering adding Hypos 16, 17 & 18,  and those would be no coiners who have neither any BTC but they have no plan to get into BTC.  Of course, these guys could convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15 by merely creating a plan in which they would be able to act upon, but they are not yet to that stage, and it could take many years or even many cycles before they finally convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15.

One of my concern with so many hypos is that they can start to feel a bit cluttered and maybe even confusing - since why do we need so many examples, and surely another problem is that the examples capture a point in time, so there could be some aspects in regards to the information that is less than evergreen... meaning that the information for some of the timelines might need to be changed from time to time.. once every 4-year cycle, perhaps?


It seems to me that Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are largely meant to show the situation of guys who already have some amount of money that they are able to lump sum invest, and the earlier guys Hypos 1 and 4 are relatively less wealthy than the later guys, which is largely attempting to show that there is a need for more capital as a later investor in order to attempt to even come close to catching up to the earlier investors, yet at the same time, I am not attempting to be exclusionary with my use of larger amounts for any of the guys, especially since there could still be cases in which relatively poor guys have come to bitcoin and have already built up some investment funds, so maybe a guy who had been investing $10 to $100 per week in non-bitcoin investments in the last 5-10 years may well have been able to build up both investments and even an emergency fund, but that same guy might not have a lot of money, but he would still end up fitting into the category of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 - since he is a guy who is able to lump sum invest. 

Maybe such guy built up $10 per week which is $520 per year which is $5,200 in 10 years, and yeah, if he built up 10x that amount with $100 per week, then he would have built up an investment portfolio of $52k, and both guys fit into the same category even though the amounts are different. 

Another assumption of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 is that they have their finances in pretty decent order with an emergency fund and reserves and likely manageable debt, even though I don't get too much into discussions of debt in these hypotheticals, even though these days, debt problems are quite common accross very many of the segments of society.
 

That makes sense.  I do frequently presume the registration date, and it would not be easy to keep track of the circumstances of all the forum members, so sometimes we might need to be reminded about the circumstances, especially if the guys might be suggesting that they fit into one of the hypotheticals more than the others, which you ended up doing that in your earlier response by saying that you fit with hypo 7.. which surely would have had been problematic if your timeline was not close to 2.5 years.


So, yeah, if you are only getting close to 1 year investing into bitcoin you would be closest in terms of comparing yourself to Hypos 10, 11 & 12.. and maybe if I end up adding hypo Hypos 10a, then you could be close to that... Probably the more difficult hypotheticals are the ones with the shortest period of time investing, and even the 2.5 year hypotheticals don't really have a very long track record like the ones with 5 years and 10 years... and so I have been criticized for being too random and arbitrary in terms of the facts and the conclusions of what I am attempting to show, and surely there is some truth in those kinds of accusations, yet at the same time, guys have to try  to decide these kinds of matters on their own, to plug in their own facts and hopefully come to the seemingly more correct conclusions that it tends to take a whole fucking lot of time to build up an investment portfolio, even if you do everything right and even if you attempt to be aggressive with your approach, and there could be ways that guys build up their investment portfolio  and then end up getting lucky with a lot of BTC price performance in a short period of time, but at the same time, there still need to be choices in regards to how much to put into the investment and perhaps to even attempt to see if too much risk might be being taken if you might be investing beyond your budget or something like that... because even though it can take a long time to build an investment portfolio, it may even take longer to recover, and/or recovery might not be possible if some guys are gambling rather than investing with their time, energy and financial value.


I am not sure if you are reading those correctly, because largely with Hypos 7 and 10 I am attempting to describe the state in which someone comes to bitcoin, and of course, hypo 7 has 2.5 years into bitcoin and hypo 10 has 1.25 years into bitcoin, so they are already building from the state in which they came into bitcoin.  So either you are already at that state when you get into bitcoin or you are not. 

The state of hypos 7 and 10 already have emergency funds and reserves in order, so they are presumptively already in a good financial state when they start to invest into bitcoin, and that is why they are able to start out with a lump sum and then to supplement with DCA.

Of course someone could start out fitting within a state that more closely resembles hypos 8 or 9 or hypos 11 and 12, which are those who have 2.5 years and 1.25 years in bitcoin respectively. 

However, already with the hypos, I am also presuming that any of the guys who do not have an ability to lump sum invest, then the first year or two of investing into, they would be building their emergency funds and reserves... and of course, the presumption is that hypos 8 and hypo 11, are already in a better position than either hypo 9 or hypo 12 at the time of getting into bitcoin.. so in the process, they are already investing into bitcoin and building themselves into a better position in terms of the solidness of their emergency fund and reserves.

Another thing is that there are presumptions that at the time of their entrance into bitcoin, hypo 7 has an emergency fund and reserves, hypo 8 has an emergency fund and no reserves and hypo 9 has neither an emergency fund and reserves.  However, after 2.5 years investing into bitcoin hypo 8 should have had gotten enough of his shit together to establish a reserves (but a reserves is not really mandatory until there are desires to start to buy on dips and things like that, so there could be cases that hypo 8 just continues to maximize his disposable income into bitcoin so he would not establish a reserve) and the same with hypo 9, after 2.5 years he surely would establish an emergency fund, but not necessarily a reserve because a reserve presumes holding back some of the DCA.. and so the longer that any of them are into bitcoin the more likely they would transition into having a reserve as well as their emergency fund and an emergency fund that is 3-6 months or more is way more basic than having reserves.. and the more aggressive that a person is in his investment or the more unstable is his income, the more likely that he is going to need a larger amount of an emergency fund and/or reserves.


I am not sure if that would be completely correct except for there is a kind of passage of time, so if a person is brand new and starting out, then he might start at hypo 15, then go to hypo 12 and then go to hypo 9 and then go to hypo 6..  .. and the main thing would just be the passing of time and attempting to stay consistent with his investment.. and so he might not reach the exact same levels but he might have comparison points with where he should be and whether he overperformed or under performed.


But you seem to be going backwards, but at least hypos 7 and 10 are in the same category of someone who had already started out in bitcoin with an ability to lump sum invest.


That part is true..,. and maybe there have been quite a few of us longer term bitcoiners suggesting that getting through a whole bitcoin cycle (4 years) can really show a certain amount of evidence in regards to how any person had been able to get through that whole cycle and then if he might need to consider the extent to which he might need to reassess what he has done and whether the next 4 years (or whatever additional period) is going to be in need of further adjustments in terms of ongoing accumulation or if maybe the person had gotten into a maintenance stage at some point within the first 4 years, which surely seems less likely with a pure DCA strategy, yet surely there are going to be differences in terms of if someone had already been able to bring other financial resources into bitcoin within the first 4 years. 

And, in the end, these are all discretionary matters, in which each of us has complete control over our own approach towards investing into bitcoin and the employment of BTC accumulation strategies.

Quoted for image.. and yeah that image is likely at least a few years old.

We cannot completely ignore tomorrow because what we do each month has to be figured out, especially if we might have goals to attempt to maximize our bitcoin accumulation while at the same time not putting ourselves into situations in which we are going to end up panicking down the road, whether that is just managing our monthly income versus our expenses and figuring out how many BTC we are going to be able to buy each week, or whatever our buying time periods might be.

Even the scenario that I had outlined that has projection of an 8% price appreciation can be looked at in terms of a 10 year time horizon or even a 30 year time horizon, and surely if we are figuring out where we might be within those various time periods, we might even create some charts that might attempt to project where we are at each month, and we can compare where we are at as compared to where we thought we would be and whether we are on a path that it is going to potentially get us to where we want to go.

And, maybe once we plot it out, we might not need to think about it every day.  Perhaps?

Sometimes in our early stages of BTC accumulation we spend a lot of time thinking about it, but maybe once we set up a decently solid plan, we just continue to plod away within the bounds of our plan and then reassess once a month or once a quarter or twice a year or some other comfortable period of time.


When I got started in bitcoin, I had projected out a 6% return per year, and surely it took more than 3 years before BTC prices were higher than my 6% per year projection.. because the BTC price corrected, and it took more than 3 years to get back to where I initially projected where the BTC price might be in 3 years... so I was largely wrong in my projection, but that meant that I accumulated way more bitcoin than I thought that I was going to be able to accumulate, and so even after the three years the BTC price ended up going up nearly another 15x and then correcting back down to something like 3x above my projected price point...

so one thing that could end up happening  is that the price goes up, and then you hope that the price goes up after you had been spending time accumulating, but even if it does not, if you still have confidence in the investment, you should still be ongoingly, persistently and consistently accumulating.. in order to help you towards accumulating more BTC..

and part of the reason that you do it ongoingly, persistently and consistently is because you do not know where the price is going to go.. or how long it might take to get there, but if you have a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon, then you could still make progress, and surely if a price rise had not come in 4 years, then maybe you would keep buying and your time horizon continues to move out from each of your buys... and if your time gets shorter than 4 years, then maybe you stop buying or in some other way adjust your buying amounts downwardly in order to account for the fact that you no longer have a 4-year or longer investment time horizon.


I agree.  The halvening is a technological marvel.   And the fact that there are only 21 million BTC is a technological marvel, and we know that inevitably a lot of folks are losing access to their coins and are going to continue to lose access to their coins.. whether it is death and lack of properly passing them down or other ways that people lose their coins and the coins are gone forever into a donation towards everyone else who continue to hold coins.

Just the whole idea of incorporating bitcoin into various student-appropriate, age appropriate and even culture (economical situation) appropriate ways would likely be a challenge because in several senses bitcoin has a lot of technological aspects, and surely phone and/or technology adoption would not be very high in the country, and then also with students living with parents and likely not having incomes, then parents could become concerned regarding how monetary subjects are taught - so there can be some fine balances, which also include concerns that some of the better ways to learn about a topic comes through application and practice, so maybe students would not have enough money or technology at home, so they would go to labs to learn about nodes and about computer programming and maybe figuring out ways to earn money (or bitcoin or satoshis) that parents could approve, and of course, parents would be more open to also learning about bitcoin and adopting bitcoin if there might be ways that they are able to improve their own economic's situations.

Personally, I agree with being aggressive, and even overly aggressive in your investment into bitcoin, but people have to be careful in regards to how they treat their emergency funds, especially if their only two investments are bitcoin and cash.


When I mentioned forum member AlcoHoDL's perspective on ways to analyze BTC value, I was largely referring to some of his posts on the topic from last week and my interaction with him on the topic, which some of our interactions could be traced back through this post.


I will watch it, but I personally am not very likely to latch on to the term supercycle, even if BTC prices were to go up to $400k to $700k or even higher by the end of 2025 - because that is  no fucking supercycle.. that is merely a peak within the cycle, and yeah, if the BTC price does not correct more than 60%  and even stay in a bit of a lull for a year or two, then maybe I might be willing to concede that dumbass inaccurate term...

In other words, we are in cycles until we are not and don't be telling me about dumb ass theories until after they already have evidence to have had happened.. .until then, they don't have any real basis in fact and there remains little to no evidence that bitcoin's 4-year cycles are either disappearing or going to disappear, which another underlying presumption of the "supercycle" theories.  

I don't buy it. Call me a denialist of fantasy, if you must.


I almost feel like taking the other side of that bet, but of course we would have to figure out our parameters, and it may well end up not being very bettable if we end up working out our details.. .and I don't even feel very strongly about it, so you might have to come up with a bit more absolutisms to make your siding with the shortened cycle theory to become bettable.

I also don't buy your claim that the April 2021 top was the real top rather than the November 2021 top, even though I will concede that the April 2021 top did have more blow off top characteristics than the November 2021 top that was both nominally higher and even arguably within inflation-adjusted terms higher than the April 2021 top (since we are showing around a 6.33% difference between the April 14, 2021 top and the November top of $69k).


That $150k is pretty damned whimpy...

No need to take anything personally, and if you are doing something else, then so be it.

I am merely responding to the ideas presented, and if I did not get all of the actual facts straight it may not matter as much as the presentation of ideas... so if someone says that they are using their emergency fund to invest in BTC, then by definition that would be denominated in BTC.


BTC is very liquid too... and cash is liquid, and yes various forms of holding assets can be very liquid, but there still needs to be caution in terms of how they are denominated in order to not suffer from something that is very volatile like bitcoin.

In other words, if we are buying bitcoin and getting exposure to it in various ways, some of those ways might be more liquid than others, while at the same time, whether we are referring to emergency fund, reserve fund or float, some of these can be matters of definition, and many people have their expenses in dollars or some other fiat (their local fiat presumptively).. and sure they could have various kinds of fiat that might serve as emergency funds, reserve and/or float...

So of course if we do not have any investments, then we can sometimes get sloppy with those kinds of practices of emergency funds.. but then if we start to invest, including investing in real volatile assets (as bitcoin has tended to be and likely will continue to be) then it becomes more important to establish better financial practices that involve an emergency fund, reserve funds and float... and sure there could also be a pecking order of various levels of liquidity.. some assets/currencies you can get within a day or two and then others might take a week or two and there might be some that take one or two months to get, and so there could be differing levels of liquidity and then also some of the assets would be more volatile than others.. and some would be considered better assets in terms of Gresham's law and sound money principles.

It is not likely that we are going to come to the same conclusions regarding how to treat these differing assets and/or currencies... in terms of which ones to spend first in case we are in a position in which we need cash.


Of course, you are the one who is in the best position to both assess how much risk that you want to take, but if you start posting about it, then it could be ambiguous in regards to what you are doing, and I am not even proclaiming to be completely correct in terms of my response.. including my example about mindrust was a bit exaggerated because he choose to sell everything, and so he became overly greedy, and there could have been scenarios in which he might have sold 1-2 BTC rather than selling 10 BTC and then buying back 1 (so ultimately a sale of 9 BTC, but he bought back the 1 at around $6k, which would have had been quite a bit higher than his earlier sale).. and also at a certain point, it might not even be clear in regards to what the examples are showing... because each individual's circumstances are going to play out differently, and if you are describing and acknowledging risky practices, then that surely could be problematic.

I remember another forum member who said that he sold his house in mid-2016 and he put it all into bitcoin... so he was wrong for several months, but then it ended up working out that he was a genius, even though he was not being very financially responsible, and I am not even suggesting that some extra risk taking may well not end up paying off, but you probably should be expecting some push back in a forum like this if you are suggesting that it is good to do.. even though you are free to do it, and you may well end up being correct in terms of the outcome..


It could be that you have everything covered.. . it sounds like it, but it did not sound like it in my first reading of the situation.. and yeah, maybe I was being selective in my reading or what I was emphasizing.


Personally I agree with emergency funds that are at least 6 months, and surely if you have more than you can be even more risky and/or aggressive..

Frequently normies have hardly any emergency fund, beyond maybe their monthly float that might be a few weeks, and those kinds of behaviors are sloppy for investors, but I try NOT to discourage anyone from investing into BTC, so frequently I will suggest that they can simultaneously invest in BTC and build their emergency fund to at least 3 months... so then once they get to 3 months then they are way better off than their usual practice, and they should try to get to 6 months before really being aggressive, but the matter is less urgent when they have at least 3 months.. and so yeah, the more erratic the income and/or the expenses of anyone, the more need for a larger emergency fund... so surely your emergency fund would qualify for being sufficient and more than sufficient when you go further out, but there does likely get to be a point that you want your emergency fund funds to be working.. somewhat... but yeah, there surely can be times in which the cash levels build up and I don't tend to have cash levels that are less than 6 months. .and I am trying to recall when the BTC prices were dropping below $20k in 2022, there was quite a bit of tightness in my own cash levels, and surely I am not sure if I want to get into analyzing that level of detail, but there might come to be points in which the price of something like BTC keeps dropping and we keep buying and it keeps dropping and dropping, and if we were to have some kind of an emergency at that point, then we have to figure out what we are going to do if we are running low on cash.

I claim that I have had few times when I personally felt that I needed to dip into my BTC fund at a time that was other than my own choosing.. and so I am not even claiming to not end up suffering from some of the dilemmas of the various balancing that goes on, but one thing for more established investors (and surely maybe you might be one of those, especially if you have other assets) is that we have a variety of investments that we could draw upon.. so even if we might get low on cash, we still have other funds to draw upon.. and the extent to which we have enough BTC could be a question of how to deal with matters too.. so like I already mentioned if you are still in BTC accumulation stage rather than in maintenance stage, then you would be more vulnerable to issues with your emergency fund as compared to someone who might be mostly in maintenance stage and who might even have some excess BTC, which largely I have rationalized that to be my own personal situation since about mid-to-late 2015.


Even though we are not dipping, there is a lot of UPpity pressures on the BTC price.

I am not even sure if you are asking the right question, at least from my perspective.

Sure, you are trying to attempt to play any kind of price wave that there is, yet you likely have already made assessments in regards to whether you have enough BTC or not.

I think on more than one occasion, you mentioned that you don't have enough BTC, but maybe you are having some concerns that you need to save some of that for buying on dips...  so that means that you reduce your regular DCA and you are just holding some of your extra reserves.

By the way, I would not label all of your extra funds as emergency funds, since maybe only part of your funds are emergency funds and others are reserves and there might be some float in there... but yeah the main two categories are emergency funds and reserves.

So if you are actually wanting to have some of your extra funds set aside for buying on dips, then you can preset that up.. and if you decide to go down to $30k (which would be just below the 200-WMA) or some other amount.. so for example, you could have a buy of $1k every $1,500 BTC drop starting at $49,500.. .. and so then that would end up dedicating around $12k for buys down to $30k, if such a thing were to occur.. and you could also have a regular DCA. .and if you decide to reduce it, and if the price goes up then maybe you would just continue to add to your buy on dip intervals, even though that might feel like chasing the price on the way up since you keep adding extra buy on dips.

So yeah the question about how much of a reserve and emergency fund surely seems to be the extent to which you feel that you have accumulated enough BTC.. and if you have not, then you have to continue to be somewhat aggressive to get to the point of having enough and even having more than enough.. since once you have more than enough then you will be in a position to structure sales... .you cannot structure sales if you either don't have enough and even if you are ONLY bordering on the idea of whether you have enough..

You should be clear in your own head (and your projections) that you have more than enough cornz, and if you have not reached that state, then from my point of view you should attempt to remain somewhat aggressive in buying until you get to that point.  (**this is not financial advice, even though it could be read that way.. hahahahaha. you are responsible for your own failures and don't come running/crying to me and saying that I told you to do it.... but if you are successful, I might like to take the credit...    Good luck.  )