[...]End of 2013: 28x 206x $.30 to $62 **
End of 2017: 16x 16.92x $62 to $1,049
End of 2021: 4x 17x $1,049 to $17,839
As of February 17, 2024 (slightly more than 1/2 of a cycle): 1.743x $17,839 to $31,091
** I doubt that we can really come up with a fair representation of 2013, and maybe we could just agree that it was high because the starting out price was so low.[...]
Thanks for the reply, to which I wish I could give a more thorough response, but I can't, due to being too busy IRL.
I did shock you, didn't I? For sure (I can feel it)
! My phrasing was just meant to stress the difference between the two indicators (spot vs. 200 WMA). We both understand full well that spot price is not something to be basing one's financial strategy upon, but it can still be used as a criterion for entry-level f.u. status bragging rights, choo-choos, chopper landings, rockets, etc.
Don't get me wrong, some of my best friends are spot price... and I have been using spot price to shave off dee cornz since 2015, yet I still consider that there are a lot of differences between shaving off a few cornz here and there and assessing the value of your holdings - in terms of points that I think that I have already made (and perhaps beat a bit more savagely than necessary?)..
As for me, I'm VERY conservative when it comes to price interpretation. Spot price means very little to me -- it's the overall trend that matters, and the 200 WMA indicator reflects that quite nicely.
Part of the reason that I had gotten myself worked into a quasi-state (or is it transitory) state of shock over what seems to be a mixing ideas.. because in some sense I doubt that we can be entering into FU status if it is based upon spot price that is all over the place, and I am not even sure if I should mention names of members prematurely pulling the fuck you lever based on both their assessment of the value of their BTC holdings based on BTC (and crypto) spot prices.. referring to 2017.. and also basing their future income and/or ability to live off of their stash (admittedly crypto stash) based on some kind of average withdrawal rate that depleted both principle and value appreciation (to the extent that both could have been increasing rather than going down if they had been assessed properly..) but then figuring out that they could not sustain themselves when their profits were illusory and they did not even have as much principle as they thought since they were not using bottom prices to figure out their value.
I am not going to presume that you are going to end up doing dumb shit like that, but you getting me worried if you might be considering 20BTC to be enough to enter into default fuck you status.. and sure maybe I will grant some leeway to premature valuations that might be in the ballpark of 50 BTC to 60BTC, even though technically, we are currently at right around 64 BTC for default entry-level fuck you status.. for verification check out
the sustainable withdrawal tool powered by bitmover.**
** By the way, am I not starting to get ridiculous when I am referring to products that refer back to my own threads... . hahahahaha As for my "5x spot" rule, think about it: it's even more conservative that the 200 WMA was at any point in time during the last 5 years at least, so a 5x spot-based f.u. status is way more secure than a 200 WMA-based one, assuming 200 WMA to be the spot price lower bound.
Of course, you can do what you like, but personally I consider that framework to be a bit more confusing than necessary, and even misleading since you are not really cashing out at those prices.. unless you are shaving off some.. but still... it is like a paper fantasy-way of framing matters.. - even though I can appreciate the idea that your own fuck you status might be considered as $10 million rather than $2 million in order that you have a financial and psychological cushion..and surely if we consider that the 5x prices might be transitory, then we could cash out some of that, but that is not likely our goal.. so what is the purpose.
Surely you would be correct to suggest that 2021 top BTC spot prices did not get over 5x the 200-WMA
because the tool shows:
1) November 9, 2021 had BTC spot prices of $67,617 and only around 297% above the then 200WMA of $17,049.. and so even if we tweak for the $69k high that still would ONLY bring us to right around 305%
2) April 14, 2021 had BTC spot prices of $63,577 and only around 470% above the then 200WMA of $11,158.. and so even if we tweak for the close to $65k high that still would ONLY bring us just shy of 5x to right around 482%
Yet we know that 2021 had a bit of a whimpy blow off top relative to 2017, so if we look at one of our high BTC spot prices of 2017, we get:
3) December 17, 2021 with BTC spot prices of $19,424 which is 1,491% above the then 200WMA of $1,221.. and if we tweak for the close to $19,666 high that would bring us to 1,511%
By the way, you will see that if you put December 17, 2021 into the sustainable withdrawal tool, it authorizes you (or you authorize yourself by using the parameters of the tool) to withdraw 59 months of your allowance amount in advance.
Maybe I'm being overly cautious here, but as I said above, it's how I do things.
I would not try to shame or blame you for exercising caution. .that's for sure.
Even in my designs at work, I tend to over-engineer my projects. They cost a bit more, but they don't break and are future-proof.
It could be that I am more confused than anything and that we are getting at similar things... because even I am not exactly sure about the discretionary aspects of employing my own system that permits one system for evaluating value and another system that ends up allowing the withdraw of way more value than is even in the necessary budget, especially if the BTC spot price happens to be 14x higher than the 200 WMA. That is stupendous amount of dollar value authorized to withdraw even though it would still ONLY be withdrawing within the parameters of the percentage allocation of the asset... whether following 4 % annual withdrawal of BTC, 6% or some other amount. that is individually determined.
Regarding your above quoted numbers, my calculations are of the ratio: [spot price @ cycle peak] / [200 WMA value @ cycle peak]. So, both the numerator and denominator refer to the same point in time. Are you also doing the same? Because your numbers don't look similar. Here are mine, for comparison:
End of 2013: $1184 / $42 = 28x
End of 2017: $19326 / $1212 = 16x
End of 2021: $67492 / 17052 = 4x
I misunderstood what you were doing, and surely I see what uyou are doing now... comparing the spot price to the 200 week moving average, and I misunderstood by comparing the BTC price at the beginning of the 4 year cycle and the spot price at the end of the 4 year cycle.. I misunderstood what you were doing, so I stand corrected on that part, and we don't need to call proudhon in to resolve what I previously considered a maths and sciences discrepancy that ended up being a misunderstanding of your numbers, by yours truly.
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We don't disagree on anything substantive, really...
In the end, we can hug, since we seem to be saying relatively similar things..and I might have to rethink what I might project for late 2025 in terms of the spot price difference from the 200-WMA.. since I don't really project spot price. I only project 200-WMA.. call me half-assed, or less than bold, if you must... My projections of prices tend to devolve into predicting ranges and probabilities, so it is not easy to project the top nor the time, even though it can be helpful to figure out some probabilities.. . but also if I make plans to act, they tend to be based on the price moving, then the sales are automatic (at least set somewhat in advance based on pre-established formulas.. that I might tweak along the way.. and I pretty much have my formulas tentatively planned up to around $500k for this cycle.. and if the price goes higher than that I will just extrapolate from what I already have. so there is a bit of tentativeness because even right now, I have ONLY set my sell orders up to $150k.. and the orders between $157.5k and $500k are just outline as tentative ideas).
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