What does that mean in layman terms? I've no idea what you mean by share capital. Is share capital something different to dividends?

Will dividends be paid in bitcoins? Yes or No?

That doesn't show a 5 BTC transaction, it shows a 118.34553317 BTC transaction.

Yes, that's the hashing power for the lifetime of their 3rd generation.

I called that number complete bullshit at first and then I did a little research into how many 2nd gen chips Avalon have shipped. It turns out Avalon shipped around 5.1 million 2nd gen chips in about 107 days, giving  47,663 chips per day. Avalon said they didn't expect the demand to be so great and didn't produce enough chips. They've said they will be increasing production. Clearly, Avalon think they could have produced more than that number.

In order for AM to produce 400 Ph/s in a year, they'd need to produce 85,616 chips per day, in order to produce 1 Eh/s in a year they'd need to produce 214,040 chips per day.

Oh yeah, Avalon's 3rd gen will also be out around the same time as AM's - March.


I don't have any AM shares so I don't care. I'm just just letting you guys know about some news you may not have heard.

In case anyone hasn't heard yet, ASICMiner plan on producing 400 - 1600 Ph/s of gen 3 chips. And no, that's not a typo.

Avalon will have their 3rd gen around the same time as AM:

Those figures show that around 50,000 chips per day can be produced. That doesn't mean that 85k can be produced but it doesn't mean that it can't either.

I forgot about Avalon. Let's look at them.

From the Avalon news post dated 14 October 2013:

"Internally, Avalon has been busy running tests on our A3255 prototype (with 96 chips running at 1.6Ghs) for several days and will continue testing the hardware as well as overclocking and system performance. We will release additional information as it becomes available on the unofficial Avalon wiki page."

From the Avalon news post dated 15 January 2014:

"Until today, we have shipped 6PHash Avalon chips all over the world. Almost 85% was from the Avalon2 A3255 chip. We will keep trying to make the best, creative, open bitcoin auditing solution for you."

From the datasheet:

"1G Hash Rate guaranteed when core voltage is 0.9V overclocking available."

This gives us the following data for the production of Avalon Gen 2:

Time frame = 1 October 2013 to 15 January 2014
Hash Rate: 5.1 Ph/s

5.1 million chips over 107 days
47,663 chips per day

If AM develop a chip to be produced by GF, then it could only be produced by GF as far as I know. Each fab requires their own mask because their technology is different. So AM can use a single fab and they'll have top share that capacity with the fabs other customers. It takes a good few week to produce wafers. If you look at how long it took the other ASIC manufacturers to package their wafers into chips, you'll see that it took them a good few days (and in some cases a couple of weeks) to get just their samples packaged.

This is where an expert needs to step in. Let's say it takes 2 months to produce wafers and AM continuously produces them. Each batch of wafers would need to be packaged before the next batch arrives for packaging. So how many wafers can AM have packaged in those 2 months? That's the bottleneck I'm talking about, not total fab capacity.

Based on what we've seen from all previous bitcoin ASIC manufacturers, it just doesn't seem possible for AM to produce the stated amount of chips in a reasonable time frame.

I don't want a specific date, I want a rough estimate in order for those numbers to be meaningful. It doesn't matter though because those numbers posted are pure bullshit given that it would take decades to produce that many chips. Then again, I could be completely wrong and it may be perfectly possible to produce and package 14-55 wafers per day.

So, how many wafers can be produced and packaged per day?

In order to be viable 2.5 years from now, AM would basically have to give the chip away. 14nm will be readily available by then and most manufacturers will have produced far more efficient chips. 2.5 years is far too long a life for gen 3.


If you think that's clear, then tell me when gen 4 chips will be released, based on that information. All that that paragraph say is that AM will try to double the number of transistors every 2 years while making the chip more efficient.

Let's say that gen 4 will be out in 2 years from now and 1600 Ph/s of gen 3 chips were produced. That would mean AM would have to produce about 2.2 Ph/s every day. With wafers at 40 Th/s, AM would need to package 55 wafers per day, producing 171,875 chips per day.

That sound pretty damn implausible to me.

If 400 Ph/s of gen 3 chips were produced in that 2 year period, 14 wafers per day would need to be packaged producing 43,750 chips.

These numbers are clearly ridiculous and they're over a two year time period. As far as I'm aware, it's not even possible to produce and package 1 wafer per day. If that's correct, then it would take AM decades to produce that many chips.

If that's the overall expected production for gen3, then an obvious question arises. When is gen4 expected? This year? Next year? Never?

If it's this year, then those numbers seem highly suspect. If the answer is never, then those numbers are meaningless. I'd say gen4 won't be out for a year or two going by those numbers, which would see the chips become pretty weak again compared to the competition. Aren't AM supposed to be working on gen4 already though? In which case, surely it won't take a year or two to be released and therefore AM won't be putting out anywhere near 1600 Ph/s.

Basically, those numbers are completely meaningless without knowing the lifetime of gen3.

What did Ken get from eASIC for the $1 million he gave them, which he got from selling shares? What's happened to the shareholders $1 million?

Ken, do you take everyone here for gullible idiots?

The original plan was for 45nm chips and 28nm chips, but the 45nm chips were cancelled because you didn't think they were worth pursuing. Now you're talking of 55nm in Q2/14?

Ken, if you would of stuck to the original plan to produce 45nm chips, would ActM be mining on them now instead of having to wait a few more months for 55nm chips which are going to be completely useless by the time they're mining?

ActM isn't Ford or Porsche in this analogy though, that would be AM and KnC respectively. Think of the crappiest car company you can think of, that's ACtM in this analogy.

Ken also expected to have miners and be trading in 2013. Ken's expectations should be taken with a mountain of salt.

No I don't, and my last post here was 2 weeks ago so why lie? Also, why would you not want new investors to know such basic facts? Trying to fleece them are you?

People need to realise that AM has only paid out about 0.6 BTC in divs and most of that was from when it basically had a monopoly on mining for months, which is simply not going to happen with it's new chips.

Of course it matters when ActM's miners become available. The later they're ready, the smaller the share of the network they'll capture and the less BTC they'll mine. It also means less sales and reduced profit on each sale due to being weak compared to the competition. It means that most share holders will not recover the cost they paid for their shares.

Also, just because ActM can make their own chips, that doesn't mean they can make as many as they want. They have to book time at the fab, then it takes a certain amount of time to actually produce the batch of wafers, turn those wafers into chips, put the chips on a card and put the cards in a system. It also costs money. What you see is that companies produce a batch of miners then have to wait a while before they get more chips to produce more miners. Each batch of wafers has to do them till the next batch arrives. That means that companies are restricted to bringing online x amount of hashing power, where x depends of the hashing speed and number of working chips in the batch.

ActM will not be able to bring enough hashing power online to maintain their network share and because of that, it will not be able to pay out 0.0025 BTC to 10 million shares. People will be lucky to get 0.001 BTC per share.

If the network hash rate remained constant, a round would last 14 days.

1% of the network = 504 BTC per round
504 / 10,000,000 = 0.00005040 BTC per round per share

If the 1% network share was maintained it would take 50 rounds to pay 0.0025 BTC to 10 million shares.
If the network hash rate was 100 Ph/s, it would take 40 x 24.576 Th/s systems to control 1% of the network, requiring 61,440 x 16 Gh/s chips.

Now, if the network increased by just 10% per round, we get the following:

01) 100 Ph/s
02) 110 Ph/s
03) 121 Ph/s
04) 133.1 Ph/s
05) 146.41 Ph/s
06) 161.051 Ph/s
07) 177.1561 Ph/s
08) 194.87171 Ph/s
09) 214.358881 Ph/s
10) 235.7947691 Ph/s
...
49) 9701.72337848722 Ph/s
50) 10,671.8957163359 Ph/s
51) 11739.0852879695 Ph/s

After 10 rounds, ActM would need 96 x 24.576 Th/s systems to maintain that 1% network share. That's 147,456 x 16 Gh/s chips. After 50 rounds, ActM would need 4,343 x 24.576 Th/s systems to maintain that 1% network share. That's 6,670,848 x 16 Gh/s chips. In order to maintain that 1% share for round 51 ActM would need to bring online another 435 x 24.576 Th/s systems over that round.

If the difficulty increases by 10% per round but ActM only increases by 9% per round, then after 50 rounds 0.00200011 BTC will have been paid out to each share holder (ignoring anything paid already). If ActM only increases by 5% per round, 0.00099533 BTC would have been paid out after 50 rounds.

ActM will not be able to maintain network share. Their chip is simply too slow compared to the competition which will cause them to run in to problems during deployment, problems such as physical space, power constraints, cooling issues, etc. Those numbers above are also pretty conservative. The difficulty has been increasing by far more than 10% per round and the network hash rate is likely to be greater than 100 Ph/s by the time ActM start normal volume production. There will be a lot of different ASICs available by the time ActM are producing miners and they're all faster than 16 Gh/s.

Someone listed almost 200 shares and bought them themselves.