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1121  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin on: May 28, 2013, 07:17:10 PM
...I'm saying there should never be 1:1 coin per person on earth because then each person will have to have thousands or millions of coins to distinguish themselves from others as "rich". No economy is going to work when everyone has an equal stash because that isn't capitalism, so some people have to be rich.

In Bitcoin the early adopters will be rich. Early adopters include some of us. In fiat currencies whoever is more politically connected to the central banks and those who already have money are more likely to have money. Bitcoin with it's early adopter premine is still much more fair than the political distribution system we have. At least with Bitcoin anyone could have been an early adopter with some luck
and even if you weren't an early adopter you can still through hard work make yourself very rich as is happening with people who start successful startups.
In terms of your points highlighted above, assuming they're true, please explain then why anyone who doesn't fulfill that lucky category would choose to acquire and use btc as currency? And here I mean btc specifically, not SEAsiaBlockcoin, or US Shipping Industy coin etc.

Right now we are all early adopters. Some were luckier than others but if you have a whole Bitcoin you're pretty damn lucky.

On the other hand even if you don't have a whole Bitcoin, even if you're very late it may still be better than whatever your national currency was.  What if you were late to buy gold and now the gold bubble is as high as it can get and you never got in early? It happens. What if you missed the dot com bubble? Even if you missed the Bitcoin train there are Litecoins and PPCoins. So at this point, the technology is so new that I don't think anyone involved in the Bitcoin community right now should consider themselves unlucky.

I also don't think people should get into Bitcoin to get rich quick. If you don't truly understand what Bitcoin can do for the world beyond make you rich then you're not a true supporter of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
1122  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin on: May 28, 2013, 06:42:48 PM
Luckybit,

Can you give me a quick answer to a couple questions for which I cannot find any good answer.  This is relevant to the value and future of tokens such as devcoin which is why I'm asking it here and not in PM.

1) Since you cleared these are tokens which does change a lot with my own personal theories I'm hoping you can add some color to what I've been searching for.

2) What's your take on the incredibly stable bitcoin token, an utterly worthless video game token showing incredible strength and price stability at well above $120.  From an econ point of view it's not possible for this length of time so maybe you can add some new perspective.  I firmly believe the natural forces exacerbated after a few weeks and it is now being propped up, but for what purpose, by artificial means....but who and for what purpose, again?

3)  These tokens are known about by maybe 1% of the population, and I mean, known as in knowledge not some quick thing they heard on channel 12 news.  So it's only a matter of time before awareness explodes and goes logarithmic and depending the number of tokens on the market at the time most if not all coins can stand to gain massive price appreciation, especially one such as devcoin which has a large following.  What's your take on this theory of mine and the possibility of it actually happening in my timeframe of 6-18 months or so?

4) Tokens are different than money but I think from the physics and economics point, such as supply and demand, velocity of money, turn over rate, etc,. these tokens should behave closely to the same model as money since in essence they can be treated as fiat money at some point so then their price can appreciate based on the same theories which govern the current market value of any fiat currency.  What's your take on that and perhaps a timeframe?

Thanks in advance.

regards,

Vlad

I wouldn't say money is completely different than tokens.

Enter token, get service... Tokens are really just local currency. REALLY local.

Exactly. Tokens are like tickets. You want to get on the train or bus? You buy a token. You want to gamble? Buy some chips. It's not going to gain in value over the years and it's not designed for you to keep your money in it for long periods of time. It's not designed for you to actually spend it either, it's for a specific purpose within a narrow focus of a community.

Devcoin is like that. It only exists as a support structure for Bitcoin until Bitcoin has infrastructure to pay people in Bitcoins and then Devcoin is done. No one is going to choose to get paid in Devcoins over Bitcoins just because theres an octillion Devcoins. And the moment someone comes along and forks Devcoin and adds the ability for the tokens/coupons to expire is the moment Devcoin becomes second best. Nothing is wrong with infinite inflation if the inflation is nice and slow, and if there is an expiration date. Devcoins seem to have no expiration date and are generated so fast that I cannot see how it will work up against a fork which has expiration built in.

I am 100% against the destruction of coins. This creates way too many problems. You should be able to hold some for use whenever you want, without being forced to utilize them. This is part of what creates value.

I think what needs to be done is slow down the creation of new coins. We need some way to determine how many should be made and use that to continue on. Every month or so it should be re-evaluated and altered as necessary. This will help keep the total number of coins in check, without causing problems by taking away what people have already earned. Inflation (or deflation in the form of the currency's value) will handle that all on its own, and is a much more efficient determinant.

Devcoin isn't a coin, it's a token/coupon. Coupons expire when the sale is over. That is how it works. If you're 100% against the destruction of "coins" that statement is too vague. I'm assuming you're against the destruction of Devcoins? I'm for it. I think Devcoins should deteriorate and self destruct over a period of time. This will encourage Devcoins to be used for what they are designed to be used for, which isn't a commodity. Commodities don't have infinite amounts of inflation if they are supposed to be a store of value. So why pretend like Devcoin is gold or silver? It's not a precious metal, it's not a commodity. The only purpose of having Devcoins is to trade them for Bitcoins as soon as possible. If Devcoins self destruct then it encourages people to trade them in as soon as possible which is better in my opinion if you're going to generate an unlimited amount and generate at such a high rate. The last thing we would want is to have millions of people with trillions of Devcoins hoarding them so the price can swing way up and then dumping them all at once so the price can dip down to less than 1/1000th of a cent. This kind of volatility is bad for something like Devcoin where people are expecting to earn a reasonable amount of money for labor and stability is everything.

If a case can be made for why Devcoin can have an infinite supply of tokens, that never self destruct, (even paper currency deteriorates and even coupons expire), then please make the case. If we look at nature the way nature balances life forms with fast metabolisms and generation rates is that they don't live as long. Basically nature keeps the balance by saying if you generate billions a month, you only live for 6 months anyway. If it wasn't like this then we'd be overwhelmed by insects that will live forever and reproduce in the trillion trillion trillions. I think you can see why it does not scale.

I think the concept of Freicoin's demurrage is intriguing, they basically selfdestruct at a fixed percentage over time. Such a demurrage could be added to devcoin (or rather a follow up) and the generation of new coins balanced with the demurrage to keep the total number of coins steady in the long run.

Combined with devcoin's 90% model, this would allow a foundation to constantly hand out coins for work, because the generation would never cease, while making the coins valuable. To keep a certain amount of coins one would either have to work for them constantly or buy more of them... I'm not sure if this would work out over a long time span, but the current non-stop process is guaranteed to make devcoins worthless in the future.
I agree with this 100%.
1123  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin on: May 28, 2013, 06:32:11 PM
It is kind of weird that once we made GRouPcoin and DeVCoin the constant complaints about bitcoin NOT constantly creating coins seems to have died out.

Maybe all the people who claimed that it is economically vital to keep creating coins forever were just bullshitting?

It would be useful to have them around to re-interate all their arguments, explaining that coins such as GRouPcoin and DeVCoin that keep creating coins forever are far superior to the intrinsically flawed "limited number ever" model exemplified by bitcoin...

-MarkM-



Well, the issue with limited number of coins is that... it's limited. Take the USD, for example. We have inflation because the government keeps adding more money to the pile. Why? Because the population increases. As we have more people, we need more money to help create a sort of middle ground.

I think coins like DVC are really the same. Our population (in relation to the US in the example) would be people coming on board. Think about it like this:

We have 10 coins and 10 people. Each person has one coin. Ten new people jump on board. At any given time only ten coins can be out there, which means hoarding becomes necessary or you have 0.

On the opposite side:

We have 10 coins and 10 people. Each person has one coin. Ten new people jump on board, so we create 10 new coins. As time goes on, each person can end up with their coin. Being that there is no more fear of not having any coins left, they are traded as a currency.

This is a very watered down simplification but it should help illustrate the point. The only downside to DVC is that it continues printing the same number of coins forever. So in the example above, if we got 2 more people we still have 10 new coins. If we got 0 new people, there are still 10 new coins. And if we got 50,000 more people from a village, there are still just 10 new coins.

There should be a way to adjust, in some way or another, the output based on some criteria.

I'm not against inflation, it's the rate of inflation that matters. If you inflate at 1% like PPcoin it's fine because it's still going to be scarce and it's inflating at a rate that is so small that it doesn't change that. Gold inflates too but is scarce. You can have a small amount of inflation, 1% or less. But to have infinitely large amounts like Devcoin simply does not work well for a commodity or a currency.

If the dollar is such a great currency why don't you have a lot of dollars? After all, a lot of dollars are printed up and there are way more of them than Bitcoins so why are you buying Bitcoins with your precious dollars?

For a community token you can have one token per person because the token itself is supposed to be worthless. For negotiable instruments or paper money you can have 1 dollar per person, but once again in my humble opinion it's better to keep the rate of inflation so low that demand always vastly outnumbers supply. Nintendo used to do this with game console launches, they would deliberately not produce enough of them around the Christmas season and people would have to stand in line to get them. Apple does this too, they deliberately keep supplies low to boost the demand. I'm saying there should never be 1:1 coin per person on earth because then each person will have to have thousands or millions of coins to distinguish themselves from others as "rich". No economy is going to work when everyone has an equal stash because that isn't capitalism, so some people have to be rich.

In Bitcoin the early adopters will be rich. Early adopters include some of us. In fiat currencies whoever is more politically connected to the central banks and those who already have money are more likely to have money. Bitcoin with it's early adopter premine is still much more fair than the political distribution system we have. At least with Bitcoin anyone could have been an early adopter with some luck and even if you weren't an early adopter you can still through hard work make yourself very rich as is happening with people who start successful startups.
1124  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin on: May 28, 2013, 09:54:04 AM
Luckybit,

2) What's your take on the incredibly stable bitcoin token, an utterly worthless video game token showing incredible strength and price stability at well above $120.  From an econ point of view it's not possible for this length of time so maybe you can add some new perspective.  I firmly believe the natural forces exacerbated after a few weeks and it is now being propped up, but for what purpose, by artificial means....but who and for what purpose, again?
Bitcoin isn't a community token, it isn't merge mined, it's a cryptocurrency which is a commodity more like gold. It has intrinsic value based on it's scarcity and the difficulty and expense of obtaining it. Devcoin is just a community token no different than if we created coupons and called them shares and gave them out so people can exchange those coupons for Bitcoins. The coupons would be coupons not Bitcoins. The value would be in the Bitcoins themselves which function as the gold standard to back the coupons. In the case of Devcoins the value is in the Bitcoins that people can trade Devcoins for. Devcoins themselves are merely community tokens and are not scarce because they don't have to be worth anything to be used to prove you did a job any more than a time card has to be worth anything more than to prove you showed up on time. Devcoins are functioning like time cards for Bitcoins. Devcoins can help establish who did what job and its a lot easier to reward in Devcoins but I see no intrinsic technological innovation or value in Devcoins to make it last nor is it scarce enough to have any psychologically instrinsic value to a smart investor. Negotiable instruments or fiat currency had value in that it was lighter and easier to carry than gold but I don't see what niche or role Devcoin has that could not be done by PPcoin or Litecoin If you'd like to go buy millions of Devcoins go and for now it will be an okay investment but the moment Devcoin is globalized and the majority of writers are in third world countries the value will crash or something has to change, I do not see how it's a sustainable model mathematically.

3)  These tokens are known about by maybe 1% of the population, and I mean, known as in knowledge not some quick thing they heard on channel 12 news.  So it's only a matter of time before awareness explodes and goes logarithmic and depending the number of tokens on the market at the time most if not all coins can stand to gain massive price appreciation, especially one such as devcoin which has a large following.  What's your take on this theory of mine and the possibility of it actually happening in my timeframe of 6-18 months or so?

Devcoin is not designed to be scarce. It will never become like gold because it doesn't have the same design. Anyone can get Devcoins for cheap and while there might be occasional volatility it's always going to be cheap because it will never be scarce. Devcoin isn't really a coin. Let me give an example, lets say I took decks of cards with arbitrary random numbers on them and I called them "shares" and passed them out to anyone who did X amount of work and who typed Y amount of words. Let's say the cards are made by a card company that for sake of argument mined the cards into existence using technology from a completely different company that makes very rare limited edition baseball cards but agreed to let them use the facility to make the arbitrary cards and then gave us unlimited amounts to pass out. The point here is that with Devcoin the worker is acting as the miner mining by earning shares. The more workers who write, the less profitable it becomes to write, the less workers will want to write. This is a flaw in the design of Devcoins because while it was designed to produce efficiency it neglects the fact that in a global economy there will be people willing to write nearly for free so once critical mass is reached there will be hundreds of thousands or perhaps millions of third world writers who will write for $5 a share, so what of those expecting $50 or $500 a share? It simple does not scale. The number of Devcoins being generated are just arbitrary numbers, it's only the worth of the shares that matter to the writer just as miners care about how profitable mining is and not so much about securing the blockchain.

4) Tokens are different than money but I think from the physics and economics point, such as supply and demand, velocity of money, turn over rate, etc,. these tokens should behave closely to the same model as money since in essence they can be treated as fiat money at some point so then their price can appreciate based on the same theories which govern the current market value of any fiat currency.  What's your take on that and perhaps a timeframe?

Bitcoin is a global commodity currency. You can use it as a store of value or as a currency to purchase large items but not so much for micropayments. Litecoin is better at micropayments, hence it's a bit less scarce and has faster transaction times. PPcoin is better as a store of value than Bitcoin because of Proof of Stake and the differences in managing difficulty. Devcoins are tokens which represent a value in Bitcoin but which have no intrinsic value of their own. Bitcoin has an intrinsic value of it's own because people will buy or even invest in Bitcoin. I don't see many people thinking Devcoin is a good long term investment. Anyone who actually attempts to work out the math quickly finds out that with unlimited supply but limited demand, you're not going to see much of a price rise. Limited supply but unlimited demand like with gold or perhaps Bitcoin is a very different story.

To test this out, if you ask people here if they have enough Bitcoins most will say no.
Try asking people here if they have enough Devcoins and see what they say.
1125  Economy / Economics / Re: Hoarding Vs. Spending on: May 28, 2013, 06:30:02 AM
Everyone should do a bit of both. Save and spend.
1126  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Devcoin on: May 28, 2013, 05:30:12 AM
Is Devcoin going keep creating coins forever? Why's there no limit despite there being a mentioning of one in earlier versions? How can we create value if there's just an unlimited supply pumping out?

90% of the coins pumped out go to support development of free open source stuff.

As long as that stuff ends up worth something, surely value is being created?

-MarkM-



Mark, you are right but one has to keep in mind many of these developers need the money which is the reason they get this generous help from devcoin so they in turn will sell these coins, at least a portion of them.

It's a simple supply and demand equation here, just like in stocks and other fiat currencies, the more you  print the more worthless it will eventually become. 

This has been a slow effect with devcoin as it has been generous in spreading the wealth around which is good because there's no coin out there that has such a global audience.

But there has to be a limit or eventually devcoin will simply lose all of its value.  The dollar is backed by a central bank, the most powerful military the world has ever seen and supposedly massive amounts of gold and it has, thus far, since 1933, lost 97% of its value because of excessive printing.  Devcoin is not backed by anything, much like the Euro I might add.  Therefore, It is only a matter of time before constant printing of devcoins will take the value farther and farther towards absolute zero. 

In the short run I understand the need to print more devcoins but there must be a long-term plan if devcoin is to survive.

Devcoin is not a currency. Devcoins are tokens so that is a problem with them calling it a coin when it's a token.

Quote
A token economy is a system of behavior modification based on the systematic reinforcement of target behavior. The reinforcers are symbols or tokens that can be exchanged for other reinforcers. Token economy is based on the principles of operant conditioning and can be situated within applied behavior analysis (behaviorism). In applied settings token economies are applied with children and adults, but they have been modeled with pigeons in lab settings.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Token_economy

Devcoins don't have any real value other than to be used as some token to represent the labor. Honestly we could work for Bitcoins instead but Bitcoin isn't focusing on that right now so there is Devcoin. Devcoin is not something to invest into as a commodity and it's not a currency that you should save or spend. It's a transitory or transient token which the moment you get must be traded in for the actual payment in the form of Bitcoin. Devcoin will never make it as a currency and will always be a token system because that is what the creators call it and the fact that you can have an infinite amount of worthless tokens in the same way you can have an infinite amount of time cards. It's the shares and the generation process that matters and from what I can see that process seems to function independently to the amount of coins that exist in total.

I think the solution to this problem would probably be to set the tokens to self destruct after X amount of time. Devcoins can be created infinitely but old coins which aren't traded in for Bitcoin should expire and we should probably treat it like coupons. I did X amount of work, wrote Y amount of words, I get a coupon worth Z amount of shares, and there has to be some volatility to the process but since there is no 21 billion cap and it's infinite the math would indicate that at some point no one will buy Devcoins for any investment or speculation, and it probably does not make sense to do so now, which is why the price is so low. But it does make sense to work for Devcoins and provided that the amount you get is modulated and adjusted, the fact that infinitely many get produced wont matter.

What I mean to say is, if there is 21 billion that exist then the jobs will be paying tens to hundreds of millions of Devcoins. All that changes is the decimal places and the amount per share. Honestly I don't know why they made this decision of infinite inflation, because from a marketing perspective it's keeping many people away from Devcoin who need to be using it. It kept me away from buying it, but I don't mind earning some provided that I can trade them in nearly instantaneously. Basically the only purpose behind them is to let people work and feel like they earned a billion coins or something, but the truth is people work for dollar amounts not coins and the amount of coins will be based on what people are willing to accept. No one is going to accept anything which isn't a fair amount in a free market, at least right now. When the market becomes more global that is when Devcoins will become worthless to many people because the price of the labor once again will be the minimum that anyone in the world will work for.

Devcoin is fine for now but I suspect at some point there will be competitors.
1127  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Time to BUY DEVCOINS (1 penny each or less) on: May 27, 2013, 11:43:46 PM
Devcoin's payment route realistically is much better than bitcoin. Look at the bigger picture. With bitcoin, mining is currently the ONLY way to earn bitcoin. With Devcoin, you are paid for your work, and miners get money as well. If it can be adopted to all forms of work with a fair system of payment, it would be more ideal than bitcoin

They are working on letting video makers get paid, and the bounties offer a lot of variations of things to do for payment.

You can get paid for posting pictures right now as well.

The payment route has to be much more streamlined. Maybe some developers can work on streamlining it into a sophisticated E-lance site where individuals can work under a pseudonym but at the same time have all the accounting and tax stuff handled in the background, also of course escrow and the ability to use digital signatures so a person can verify they produced whatever work they produced, perhaps the ability to do independent contracting paid in Devcoins and eventually salaries and not just bounties. Bounties can only take you so far, people will want smart contracts and a sense of stability.


The only problem with Devcoin is it's difficult to determine exactly how the market determines how much a job is worth. How much is 1000 words supposed to be worth? How exactly do we control how much anything is worth when there are infinite amounts of Devcoins? We all know every word is worth something but how much seems to be difficult to determine and Devcoin hasn't solved it. $70-500 is a very large range, so perhaps a rating system can be built in at some point so that really talented writers can get bonus shares in proportion to their rating. This rating system would have to rely on digital signatures and could not be done anonymously though so it would have to be traced to real people and that is hard.
1128  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Time to BUY DEVCOINS (1 penny each or less) on: May 27, 2013, 11:39:35 PM
Those of you who write on Devtome - how much do you earn per word, how often do you get paid?

1,000 words is 1 share. There are 180,000,000 coins per round, evenly divided into the shares.

How much is this in USD per share? How much is 1000 words worth in Devcoin economics today and into the future?
1129  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Time to BUY DEVCOINS (1 penny each or less) on: May 27, 2013, 11:35:19 PM
But seriously, no one wants to give away 90% of their profit to devs; regardless how good or bad the idea might in theory be, people are greedy by nature. Devcoin will never be substantially more valuable than what it is today, in fact I think it is one of the most likely altcoins to die in the long term.
Disclosure: I earn devcoins.

First: but what if you and others were also devs. 'Dev' for devcoin isn't just software/hardware. It's writing, art, marketing, other ideas.

I am a dev, and of course I'd love to receive 90% of the profits the miners do. I'm just having a hard time trying to picture a miner saying "Oh, hey, let's mine this coin which is 90% less profitable than any other cryptocoin that I could mine with this hardware, just for the heck of supporting developers, art and culture".

The idea in itself is not bad; I'm not against supporting creators. The problem I see is that it can't hardly grow if people are greedy, which they are.
You’re correct, people are greedy. But at some point a whole load of people are going to wake up to the fact that bitcoin et al are like a game of pass the parcel, except in this replicable deflationary game of increasing real interest rates in trade the person holding at the end loses. Like you I’m playing that game, and I think it's a fantastic revolutionary stepping stone. But as I don’t know when it ends and because I don’t have the time, inclination or capital to risk all I prefer to mostly stick with the admittedly slower but sustainable greed that comes from getting paid for doing something or receiving something wanted. I think others will come to realise this over time. Time will tell.

+1

Miners are essentially accountants - their job is really to keep the ledger, and they get coins each block as a reward. If we called them "accountants" rather than "miners" would they seem as glamorous?

Also - imagine an economy where the people who actually do stuff - create art, books, software, hardware, tools, grow food, build houses, make furniture etc - are paid nothing and only the accountants got the lions share. That sort of society would collapse - unless the model was restricted to a very narrow one where there were just two players - the speculators and the accountants...

Of course you are correct but is Devcoin the answer?  Many people have mentioned that there are infinitely many Devcoins and that is the main problem with the idea. Perhaps a fork should be made and it should be renamed Workercoin instead because Devcoin sounds too nerdy. At the end of the day we all need a way to earn coins and Bitcoins don't seem to provide many avenues to work for coins just yet which is part of the problem with Bitcoins. If more people could actually work for them more people would use them and it wouldn't be so easy to manipulate the price.

Devcoin does not seem to be the answer though. While you may need billions of coins if its merge mined with Bitcoin, to have an infinite amount of coins seems unnecessary. One thing should be clear, Devcoins are not a traditional currency they are a token currency. You can create infinite tokens, tokens are only used to determine who did what work so if it's 1 token per share or a trillion tokens per share it does not really make any difference. For the barter exchange of time for labor any token will work. Devcoin just in particular isn't working because we aren't all writers and programmers so how do musicians, artists, mathematicians, and those who offer products and services get paid?

When the market is expanded so more than just writers and programmers can get paid, but podcasters, models, and anyone who offers any digital content can get paid, that is when Devcoin will work. Devtome isn't really a good enough site either, there has to be many sites like Devtome for it to work and different sites have to fill different niches.
1130  Economy / Services / Re: [EHR:307.5Gh/s] Hashrack.com|Hashpacks the easy way to mine bitcoins 0.5Gh-50Gh on: May 27, 2013, 05:35:53 AM
how can I set the vardiff?
Not possible to run with ASIC's with vardiff 1!
Vardiff 1 give me more stale as valid shares!

greets
Tinu

We are working on this, we will do a scheduled update on Fri 17th, this update will let you select the diff, this also will correct some glitches on our realtime server.

If Bitcoins turn out not to be profitable is the pool willing to consider mining other SHA256 based coins? Do we get to choose where our hashing power is directed?
1131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Geeks -> Silicon Valley -> The Finance World on: May 27, 2013, 01:40:52 AM

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.



I consider myself a strong long-term bull...until I read the 6 or 7 figure predictions. I recall calculating that if *all* of gold's private-investment demand (which is 16% of total gold) went to bitcoin, that'd yield ~$50,000/btc. You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.




And that is not going to happen. But even if its $50,000 a Bitcoin that is damn sweet. And that could happen in 2016.
1132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Geeks -> Silicon Valley -> The Finance World on: May 27, 2013, 01:38:46 AM
Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it.  

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.


Bitcoins will not be worth 7 figures. $70,000 is the most Bitcoin will be worth in the next 20 years. But even if that is the case, any of us will be better off owning a few of them.
1133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming? on: May 27, 2013, 01:23:12 AM
I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided


I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

The markets are looking gangsta right now.
1134  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Should Bitcoin form a freedom fighters army? on: May 27, 2013, 01:00:27 AM
Should Bitcoin form a freedom fighters army? Like the founders of America, we need an army.




Already asked a similar question, but I would never call it an "Army".
1135  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Google killing Adsense accounts on Bitcoin-related sites on: May 27, 2013, 12:58:41 AM
Just had an Adsense account of mine get shut down, although it was only making me pennies. I've heard/seen of this happening to others too who ran Bitcoin-related websites. Has this happened to anyone else?

I can co-sign that. I let my visitors know that week accepted bitcoin donations. Then a week or so later they suspended my account because supposedly they couldn't prove certain traffic coming to my site or some BS like that. Bitcoin has a target on it's back believe it.

Now we know why Google funded Ripple.
1136  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Recommend : exchange to cash out bitcoin on: May 27, 2013, 12:52:50 AM
Coinbase has high daily limits and can connect directly to your bank account for inexpensive transfers. The times I have used them have gone smoothly and quickly.

I recommend Coinbase also for tax purposes. When the time comes to report your taxes they make it really easy to do that.
1137  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Liberty Reserve is now dead (Good News For Bitcoin ?) on: May 27, 2013, 12:50:57 AM
Now that Liberty Reserve is dead is that good or bad for bitcoin?

I think its good because it should lead to more people adopting bitcoin.

Read Article -

http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/05/reports-liberty-reserve-founder-arrested-site-shuttered/

I hope people will now learn not to put any trust in digital centralized monetary institutions. They all have the potential to fail eventually .. Egold, Liberty Reserve etc...

It's bad for Bitcoin. Remember what E-Gold did? Kept people from Bitcoin.
1138  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: A custom designed FPGA miner for LTC? on: May 26, 2013, 06:55:20 PM
I have found what I believe is a shortcut in scrypt that if implemented correctly in hardware could dramatically speed up the hashrate.
I believe it should work and I know how I would implement it if I had the resources to acquire the FPGA and tools I need.

To show good faith I will elaborate on the algo and how the shortcut would work.  
This is really over simplified, but you are free to take this idea and roll with it.

scrypt the algo used by LTC and in fact all hashing algos, are comprised of 2 predominant steps.
#1 Generate a random list
#2 Hash across it.

To generate consistent results the random algo is actually deterministic pseudo-random and the setup for it is determined by a seed.
We will call this the prng.

The other step is hashing which is pretty well understood, you take a value from list a and replace it with a value from list b.
When you are done iterating you now have a hash.

scrypt differs mostly because it uses an entirely new list so frequently.  
The setup and tear down of this list requires quite a bit of CPU time and a lot of time is wasted on the memory bus performing storage & retrieval operations.
It cannot be done concurrently because the list itself changes frequently.

The shortcut is to have a multicore setup and a ton of on-die ram.
A dedicated prng core which does the setup and teardown for the second core.

The secondary core is the hashing core.  It would tell the prng core to setup a new list.
Then it would retrieve position x off the list from the shared memory space.
Other than that it would also perform all the normal hashing functions in a dedicated memory space.

I believe the total I need to make this work is about $12k USD, the FPGA I'm targeting right now is $10k and a license for the dev tools will be about $2k.
If I can find a less expensive option then I will go for that, but there aren't that many FPGAs that meet requirements right now.  
The particular target FPGA also has a direct path to ASIC from the mfr.

If you're willing to donate to the effort, I will keep you in the loop with full disclosure including build instructions and a copy of the sources and the firmware.
I haven't decided on a license for this if it works, but you will at least have a right to personal use.  
Perhaps if enough people are interested in production level manufacturing we could go a different route.  I'm not particularly interested in making this something I do for the rest of my life, but the contrarian in me is very excited by the potential here.

The LTC donation address is below.
LKfKkRMvMf2stQMNzQdKCvaf2YueAv1QSa

You can also donate BTC to the key in my sig.
There is no maximum but if you do decide to donate please send at least 0.5 LTC or the equivalent in BTC.
Then post just the address you donated from and I'll PM you here with a bitmessage key to join the group.

Thanks in advance!


Go on Cryptostocks.com and list there. There is another group offering FGPA shares. You should do the same and try and pull an ASICMiner type deal.
1139  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Starting an Adult/Porn 3D Virtual Reality company, need donations on: May 26, 2013, 06:52:08 PM
You can't afford $300?

Actually, I cannot.

Sell shares of your company and you might have a shot or get on Kickstarter.
1140  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] LuckyCoin LKY | Lucky Blocks | Fast | Fun | Fair on: May 25, 2013, 10:14:30 AM

Announcing LuckyCoin:

Feeling lucky punk? No? Well you should! LuckyCoin offers super lucky blocks, where your reward can be x2 ,x5 and even x58! That's not the best part though. The best part is we've designed this coin with fairness in mind. That's why we developed an accelerated difficulty adjustment algorithm. The difficulty will be adjusted much faster in the beginning, so if high hash power jumps on, it will rise much faster than normal. The difficulty will be retargeted about every 4 hours (block time). We are confident this can combat high hash botnets from orphaning all of us.

Specs:
- 1 min block target
- 3 confirms per transaction
   - Difficulty retargets every 4 hrs with accelerated diff adjustment in the beginning
   - Initially 88 coins per block, halves every 2 years (1,036,800 blocks)
   - Total around 200 millions coins
   - connection port is 9917, RPC-port 9918

   Random Super-blocks:
    For the 1st 50000 blocks
    - 5% chances 188 coins/block
    - 1% chances 588 coins/block
    - 0.01% chances 5888 coins/block (so expect 5 such blocks)

    After 50000 blocks
    - 5% chances 2 times the normal coins (i.e. if normal is 88 coins, you get 176 coins)
    - 1% chances 5 times the normal coins
    - 0.01% chance 58 times the normal coins


Pools:

Pool owners message us if you would like us to list your pool, it will most likely go unnoticed by us if you post only in the main thread.

1.
http://lky.allpoolz.com
Port: 8080                  
Stratum Only, 1% Fee

2.
Stratum / LongPoll: http://lky.p2pool.nl:8200
Stats: http://lky.p2pool.nl/stats/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215504.0

3.
Host: 95.47.119.136
Worker Port: 8337
Username: YOUR-LKY-WALLET-ADDRESS
Password: X
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215540.0

4.
http://lky.scryptmining.com
Stratum-based, non-p2pool, PPS payouts

5.
Fee 2% for now, likely to reduce. P2Pool

URL: 24.199.222.250:19335
Username: *your LKC address*

6.
http://next.afraid.org:8116
a PPLNS payout scheme, and is stratum enabled. 3% fee.

7.
http://p2p.sytes.net:19335/static/
Great p2pool.

8. http://178.79.27.197:19335 P2Pool


Block Explorer:
http://lky.p2pool.nl/chain/Luckycoin

Game Sites that Accept Luckycoin:
http://cryptoblackjack.kicks-ass.net/


Launch:

We are launching on:

May 24th, 2013 between 6-10PM EST/10PM-2AM UTC. Please check back here we will update with download links when launched.

Windows Download: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B39tky7c1ELeNkNmUWdRQnBEYVE/edit?usp=sharing
Github: https://github.com/LuckyCoinProject/Luckycoin

Getting Started:

1. Start up luckycoin.qt, wait for it to load, then exit.
2. Put luckycoin.conf in your c:/users/**yourcomputername**/appdata/roaming/LuckyCoin

luckycoin.conf
testnet=0
listen=1
daemon=1
maxconnections=100
server=1
rpcuser=**Yourusername**
rpcpassword=**Yourpassword**
rpcallowip=10.1.1.*
rpcport=9918
rpcconnect=127.0.0.1
addnode=24.242.16.87
addnode=113.162.172.159
addnode=77.110.45.131

3. restart luckycoinqt wallet, and you should connect and sync.
4. Launch cgminer or whatever mining program you like and begin mining.
      cgminer ex: cgminer.exe --scrypt -o localhost:9918 -u **yourusername** -p **password** (without **)

Remember after network has grown and healthy in an hour or two delete add node commands.

We are very excited about this, and we hope all of you join us in making this a great success!

Sincerely,
LuckyCoin Team

LuckyC? What? Did you borrow my name on purpose?
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