We never closed below the 137 daily MA during the 2017 bull run.
Right now, we are immediately above the 137 daily MA.
Zoomed in
We are also getting down to the pointy end of the pennant
And volatility as shown by Bollinger band width in the middle bar is way down
When volatility falls very low, it means Bitcoin is winding up for a big move.
What does this all mean? I am not entirely certain whether we will go up or down, but we are primed for a big explosive move. The move will probably happen around the Bakkt launch on Monday, and will be preceded by a fake out in the other direction.
Bullish factors:
* We are in an overall bull market driven by the halvening. Accordingly any bear attacks should be blunted and relatively short lived. The halvening is only 8 months away.
* There is a fear in the market that Bitcoin will collapse after Bakkt release like it collapsed after the CME and CBOE. If we all find that Bitcoin does not collapse this week, this may lead to a relief rally.
Neutral factors:
* Daily RSI is at neutral, giving us lots of room to move in either direction.
Bearish factors:
*We are sitting on the 137 MA daily. There is a “rule” that Bitcoin cannot close below the 137 MA daily. Rules in TA are made to be broken. Closing below 137 MA daily would make a nice scare for the bears.
*The 2015 fractal tells us we are still running hot and high. The current price is around the forecast price at halvening. This suggests we need to take some heat out of the market still.
Conclusion:
Next week is likely to be punctuated by shenanigans and big moves. I remain overall bullish but also short term cautious. We should expect to break out of the pennant in both directions before finally deciding which way we will go.
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