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121  Economy / Economics / Re: Debate: Bitcoin vs Gold with Anthony Scaramucci and Peter Schiff on: August 28, 2021, 09:39:23 PM
he generally doesn't know what he's talking about when prediction after prediction about how doomed the dollar was failed to materialize for years.
He's been predicting gold will hit $5,000 since the year 2000, and he's been predicting bitcoin will hit $0 since 2013. He is a broken record, completely insulated from the real world. It is a wonder he keeps getting invited back on TV when he has been so consistently and monumentally wrong with every single one of his predictions.

Well a lot of investment shows need to fill space, and it drives engagement to have someone as polarizing as Schiff on TV making brash predictions.  Hell, Jim Cramer built an entire career out of yelling aggressively.  Peter Schiff makes the same reckless predictions, albeit in a calm fashion.  They're essentially the same untrustworthy personalities peddling pseudo-nonsense, but for some reason have devoted followings, most likely by virtue of simply appearing on mass media, which implicitly gives them credibility.
122  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin fans have developed into a political force. Is this the dawn of victory? on: August 28, 2021, 07:54:56 PM
Bitcoin fans develop into a political force

Quote
Bitcoin's current rally is inseparable from the assists of the giants. On August 23, local time, the US payment giant PayPal announced the launch of a cryptocurrency service in the UK. Starting this week, it will allow UK customers to buy, hold and sell digital currencies. This action marks the first international expansion of PayPal's cryptocurrency service outside the United States, and the company first launched this type of service in the United States in October last year.

It's hilarious to see all these bitcoin fanatics hyping bitcoin as the antithesis of centralized payment processors, and the PayPal killer, and then subsequently cheering PayPal's adoption of crypto because it pushes the price higher.  At the end of the day, relatively few people care about the tech.  They just care about the gains, and they don't really care why it happens, as demonstrated perfectly here.
123  Economy / Economics / Re: The UK's FCA and Binance talks break down on: August 28, 2021, 07:49:10 PM
I saw an article on this a few days back from a legitimate source and I'm wondering why no one else seems to have made a topic here on it.

It seems the UK financial conduct authority was trying to find a way to come to an agreement with binance to keep operating in the UK but put blame on binance for not being able to answer the questions it wanted them to.

I'm not entirely sure, personally, if this has any impact on bitcoin at all as I think there is a lot of competition to binance the FCA won't be able to find or that will comply with the FCA (such as coinbase and decentralised exchanges and the smaller leverage platforms).

It'll probably have a very small and limited impact on the overall price. There is nothing wrong with different regulators in different countries taking different actions to protect their own citizens, as you say. If companies want to operate with the approval of the UK authorities then that is up to them, however it's a fairly rich and open marketplace for companies that do want to comply. I wouldn't be so sure that Binance are the blameless ones here - I've used their platform once and the fees were absolutely extortionate so it would not surprise me to think that they would be up to other dirty tricks too. Being FCA approved is generally seen as a good thing, but obviously the regulator can make occasional mistakes.

I actually wouldn't expect it to have any impact on the price.  Binance could entirely disappear and there are more than enough exchange points people could go to in order to transact between bitcoin and fiat, so there would maybe be an initial (but extremely short-lived) disruption in demand.
124  Economy / Economics / Re: Bullish? Bankers Issue ‘Seismic’ Warning: crypto could replace USD in 5 years on: August 28, 2021, 07:45:55 PM
I put a question mark in the title because I don't trust the banks, and I don't know if this is a way of telling the public authorities to put more restrictions on cryptocurrencies. Or I don't know if it is a way of surrendering to the evidence, and in the same way that for many years they ignored Bitocoin and cryptocurrencies, but now they are going to offer custody services, etc., they now recognize that this is unstoppable.

Bankers Issue ‘Seismic’ Warning: Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Cardano And XRP Could Replace The Dollar In Just Five Years As Crypto Market Price Adds $1 Trillion

".a poll of mostly banking executives found most think bitcoin and digital assets could replace fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar within the next five to 10 years—a shift described as "seismic." <...> "A strong majority (81%) of the almost 1,300 executives questioned think blockchain, the technology that underpins bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, is broadly scalable and has already achieved mainstream adoption. Meanwhile, 73% think their company should adopt crypto and blockchain or risk losing competitive advantage.

"The foundation of banking has been fundamentally outlived and financial services industry players must redefine themselves and find innovative ways to create economic growth in the future of money," Pawczuk, who heads up Deloitte's global blockchain and digital assets practice, said in a statement alongside the report.

This year, Wall Street banks from Goldman Sachs GS +1% to JPMorgan JPM +1.6% have begun rolling out bitcoin and crypto services to their clients as central banks around the world experiment with blockchain-based central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
"

This is hype run absolutely amok.  I'll take the over on crypto replacing the USD within the next 5 years.  Where can I place this bet?  I'll take the over on the next 10 years too.  If you want to know how out of touch the respondents are, consider that those thinking crypto could replace the USD "in the next 5 to 10 years" also said that it has "already achieved mainstream adoption."  Apparently they have set the bar for "mainstream adoption" so comically low as to involve not being able to conduct 99% of your everyday commerce transactions.  

Where I will agree that it has reach "mainstream" adoption is as an investment class, but this is worlds apart from CURRENCY use.  Nobody uses it as a currency.  I would wager not even the idiots in this article who said it's already reached mainstream adoption.
125  Economy / Economics / Re: Nothing about communism: The real cause of hyperinflation in Venezuela on: August 28, 2021, 07:36:24 PM
This.  Whether your country is capitalist, socialist, authoritarian, libertarian, or whatever else, if people in the government are lining their own pockets and the pockets of their supporters, it can and likely will fail at some point.  You can't have people siphoning off large sums of money without consequence.  
Those who line their pockets won't be affected by the downfall of the country because they're already safe since they have a lot of money and they've already covered their bases. One thing to end this corruption in the government is if the people smell that there's a hint of corruption, a revolution should happen where the people systematically assassinate those officials or have them kidnapped and brutally murdered, that's the only way to solve that, they will be scared to commit any form of corruption because they know that anyone in the public will be able to kill them, don't jail them, don't let them enjoy the money that they've stolen.

People know the government is corrupt, but having an ability to do anything about it is an entirely different matter.  Revolutions aren't easy because there's no centralization.  Once any momentum gets large enough to pose a threat to the government, they know about it and violently crack down.  

On another matter, your comment that people should be brutally murdered or assassinated as a means of controlling the government is just as disturbing as when a government employs those tactics to control a civilian population, and has no place in the modern world or a civilized society.
126  Economy / Economics / Re: Why would people ever use bitcoin if its expected to always go up? on: August 28, 2021, 07:32:26 PM
Assuming the cost of transaction fees continues to remain at it's current lowest prices, if you were wanting to make a $100 purchase, then you buy $100 worth of bitcoin (probably a tiny bit more to cover subsequent TX fees) then make your purchase of a $100 item. 

Essentially, it doesn't matter what the price of bitcoin is if you buy BTC then spend that BTC more or less straight away.

This raises the question why anyone would needlessly introduce middlemen to a transaction.  In this case, bitcoin is an unnecessary middleman.  If you're buying bitcoin to immediately spend it, why not just conduct the transaction in fiat?  There are very few situations where this makes sense, but a couple I can think of are cross border transactions or speed over electronic transfers, which are probably slower except in the case of wires.
127  Economy / Economics / Re: Debate: Bitcoin vs Gold with Anthony Scaramucci and Peter Schiff on: August 28, 2021, 07:28:10 PM
so their discussions on Twitter are already known as conflicts between father and son, although I doubted that they just want to attract even more attention to themselves.
They are just manipulating their followers. Schiff comes out and says "I'm holding 0.001 BTC as an experiment, here's my address, I sure hope no one sends me any more!" and gets a bunch of free bitcoin. Then he says "Now my son has just bought some bitcoin, look at his account here!" and then he gets a bunch more sent to him for free. Listening to Schiff on anything bitcoin related is stupid, but sending him or his son free bitcoin "to teach him a lesson" or "to spite him" or something is just downright moronic. As I said above, he is just the same as an altcoin shiller, manipulating his followers for his own benefit.



I went through a spell where I was a Schiff follower, back before Bitcoin was ever a thing, but I came to the conclusion that he generally doesn't know what he's talking about when prediction after prediction about how doomed the dollar was failed to materialize for years.  Now I look back and realize he's just preaching his doom and gloom gospel to the very niche market of rich idiots who buy into the whole USD is going to zero fiction so he can sell them asset management services based on buying gold.
128  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin as a speculative asset or as currency on: August 28, 2021, 04:54:42 PM
The pros and cons of crypto currency, bitcoin, are still rolling in when the price is still at a high level and with extreme volatility. The pros claim bitcoin to be the future for international transactions, while the cons are still strong if bitcoin is a speculative item, not even worthy of being called an asset.  Huh

People who are against bitcoin and say it doesn't deserve to be called an asset because bitcoin doesn't have a physical form and is very volatile (decentralized), of course it will be a problem if bitcoin is accepted as an official payment system because the price goes up and down in a day can reach 10% or more, but I'm sure if the bitcoin community is increasing, more and more countries will legalize bitcoin just like fiat currency.

People who say bitcoin isn't an asset are factually wrong. An asset is literally anything that has value, and there are plenty of non-physical things that have value and are therefore assets.  Intellectual property is a classic example, including patents.  Also, 5G spectrum has no tangible existence and yet the major telecoms are buying swaths of it for billions of dollars, which they then own to build their 5G networks on.  This is another obvious example of a non-tangible asset.  And of course, any crypto- not tangible, has value = is an asset, according to the literal definition of the word.
129  Economy / Economics / Re: Amazon's future plans on: August 28, 2021, 04:49:16 PM
I think people in the Crypto space should not get too excited about this rumor. Amazon will take one of the following options...

1. Accepting Crypto currencies via Payment processors - Simply because the regulatory framework is not in place to accept Bitcoin or any other Crypto token as a "currency" - This is just a clever way to bypass regulations and to say they still deal in Fiat currencies.

2. They will create their own token - If they get regulatory approval to accept Crypto as a currency, then they will create their own token that they can manipulate. (Full KYC Requirements and control over the development and Supply of the tokens)  Roll Eyes

In regards to number 2, there's no real reason to expect them to set up a KYC framework unless they can profit off of it somehow, and I just don't see a profit model there.  Lacking an economic interest in building their own KYC framework, they will either rely on a third party to handle this through an established exchange or not pursue their own token at all.  

In regards to number 1, what regulatory framework do they really need?  There's nothing stopping them currently from accepting bitcoin as a currency, the same as some other businesses currently do.  If they didn't want to deal in crypto themselves but still wanted to allow for crypto buyers to exchange with them, they could just use a third party to handle transactions and immediately convert crypto to fiat.  There is no regulatory framework required for either of these options, but it simplifies things considerably to use this last option from a bookkeeping and accounting perspective.
130  Economy / Economics / Re: Nothing about communism: The real cause of hyperinflation in Venezuela on: August 28, 2021, 04:42:07 PM
It's a combination of socialism and corruption of their government and over reliance to oil that has caused this hyperinflation that they have been experiencing now and if the leaders of this country invested on infrastructures like hospitals, schools and other public infrastructure then we would've seen something different, they got too complacent that they didn't expect oil to go down in prices.

I doubt the particular form of government in Venezuela is the one primarily causing the economy and the entire country, so to speak, to crumble down. Venezuela is not even truly a socialist country. The problem, of course, is a lot more complicated than it may seem, but I guess it is mainly the government's mismanagement that led to the country's failure. Of course, too much reliance on oil is just one big failure representing mismanagement. That's basically a lack of foresight on the part of the government's experts.

Venezuela is definitely a socialist country.  It is run by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, governs the economy with socialist objectives, and has nationalized private businesses in the name of socialism (and then proceeded to run those industries into the ground through cronyism and general incompetence, particularly the oil industry).  Prices are set by the government in Venezuela, another classic hallmark of socialism.  There is no way you can look at the government and conclude it's not socialist. 
131  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason to hodl bitcoin on: August 28, 2021, 04:35:18 PM
This is very clear for me to about what will happen with time in our future. What has happened to fiat from the above explanation is true and I am not seeing any currency from any country that has not lost value or a little depreciation because of the economic development and changes in the world. This is interesting enough that bitcoin has more advantage

And yet the fiat system has ushered in unparalleled economic prosperity despite the inflation "problem."  There are many reasons that deflationary currencies were abandoned, but the main one is that they discourage economic activity and slow down economic growth.  If the choice is having a smaller economy anchored by a deflationary currency, or the current monetary-economic model that maximizes economic growth at the cost of minor inflation, I pick the latter every time.  It is only under the latter that we have achieved the level of economic prosperity we have today.  Yes, over decades holding cash is a dumb idea under this model; so don't do it.  It's far dumber to pine for an inferior economic model just because it solves a relatively minor issue that can be easily avoided.  That's insanity.
132  Economy / Economics / Re: After 1 year of Covid 19 Virus on: August 28, 2021, 01:23:59 PM
For example, a recent study found that the Pfizer vaccine is only 42% effective against the delta variant. But the same study found that those who got two doses of the Pfizer vaccine are 200 times less likely to die from the infection. So these two needs to be distinguished. On the other hand we have the Chinese vaccines (Sinopharm and Sinovac), which are neither effective, nor offers any protection from hospitalization.

Where can I read about effectiveness of vaccines? I've got two Pfizer vaccine shots. Your post made me disappointed. All the time I thought that I'm more protected than others, but now it turns that my chances to die are simply much lower. I still can catch something and it might damage my organs...

I'm about to have my first abroad vacation during pandemic period. The vacation is already half spoiled, because most of places I can not simply visit even with vaccine certificate. In addition, I can be reverted back home after landing, because of silly rule "your kid got covid confirmed", while he is much younger than 12 years (in our country only people who are older than 12 years old can be vaccinated).

Check this:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-may-be-superior-pfizer-against-delta-breakthrough-odds-rise-with-time-2021-08-09/

The article was published two weeks ago, based on a study done by Mayo Clinic Health System. The sample size was huge (>50,000) so I am sure that the numbers they are providing are closer to the truth. And the worst part is that Moderna is proving to be much more effective when compared to Pfizer. The former is 76% effective against the delta strain, while the latter has only 42% efficacy. Also, a study in Israel claims that the efficacy of mRNA vaccines get reduced after 6-7 months of the second dose.

This is interesting especially since Pfizer just got full FDA approval in the United States, which means that it is likely to increase market share as Moderna has not been fully approved and continues just to be approved on an emergency basis.  If there really is such a large disparity it outcomes over time, hopefully Moderna will be approved and gain marketshare.
133  Economy / Economics / Re: What’s the nature of currency? on: August 28, 2021, 01:15:30 PM
Regardless of why, the inflexibility of bitcoin is why it's still a slow and clunky crypto and why it hasn't been able to incorporate improvements that other crypto's have introduced.
Bitcoin changes slowly, yes. But it's not going to change faster if it's threatening any of the main pillars that I mentioned above. Bitcoin changed to incorporate SegWit, we now have the Lightning Network, and soon we will have Taproot and Schnorr signatures.

When you talk about the improvements in altcoins, those changes can make them faster and cheaper, but to they make the networks more secure? Many altcoins have suffered 51% attacks and many others could be subjected to them with very little cost. Bitcoin doesn't do rollbacks, altcoins have. Bitcoin isn't centralized, many alts are + they are premined.     

There's definitely low hanging fruit here bitcoin can address. Faster blocks and bigger blocks would easily scale the network and allow it to be used for commerce more easily, and would also solve the cost efficiency problem.  For all the promise of lightning network, the implementation hasn't solved any actual issues on a practical level.  Its use-case in practice is a very small minority of transactions, so the bulk of transactions in bitcoin remain neither fast nor cheap.  On top of that, I'm just not convinced the trade off between decentralization and speed has proven either necessary or worth it.  There's not a problem with traditional centralized payment processors to the point where the world needs a decentralized immutable option.  To the extent the world wants one, there are currently better options than bitcoin due to bitcoin's consensus-based refusal to adapt.  In some respects, the consensus system offers benefits, but generally more in what I would call a hypothetical sense as the practical drawbacks at this point continue to heavily outweigh the potential benefits.  (Of course, in my extreme minority opinion.)
134  Economy / Economics / Re: Cuba the next country to accept cryptocurrencies? on: August 28, 2021, 03:56:14 AM
How does the government regulate it?
More like saying Cuba Regulate Rainfall or something...how possible? Probably by creating a giant roof or artificial cloud that controls where the rain finally falls in the country when it falls on the roof. Typically, we get unrestricted access to nature no matter who we are but humans try to add restrictions
Guess the better words to use could be "Cuba to Regulate their Bitcoin/Space".  


The same way the government regulates everything- you write a law and penalize people who don't comply with it.  If we've seen one thing with crypto regulations it's that nobody has proven effective at avoiding regulation.  In the case of bitcoin, you regulate the fiat exchange points (which are already regulated).  You pass a law, not too many people are going to risk noncompliance, especially when the consequence is prison.
135  Economy / Economics / Re: What is the validity of a mixed economy system? on: August 28, 2021, 03:48:06 AM
Now even united state of America as an example of a capitalist economy has the government regulating and also taking part in the decision making of the economy.does that makes it a mixed economic also?

Yes, the US is an example of a mixed economy.  Some examples of how the government impacts the economy include laws and licensing requirements that control the ability to buy or sell certain goods/services (liquor laws, gambling laws, excise taxes, licensing for certain professions, etc.), and the government's involvement in building infrastructure such as educational institutions, roads, hospitals, etc.  I don't know of any economy that is truly a free market economy.
136  Economy / Economics / Re: What’s the nature of currency? on: August 28, 2021, 03:32:12 AM
Bitcoin doesn't exactly have an efficient way to measure "consensus" and further, there's a major difference between what bitcoin users might think versus a consensus by miners,
Full nodes are responsible for overseeing and verifying that consensus rules are being respected. Miners create blocks and include transactions whose validity is again controlled by the full nodes.   

There's a status quo which, for reasons that have nothing to do with consensus, is very difficult to change.
It's difficult to change because you need a huge majority of the community to agree to the change. It's not like when you vote for a new president and the person with 52% comes to power. You need much more than that in Bitcoin.

It's also difficult to change because interested parties will never vote on something that decreases the decentralization or network security of Bitcoin.

I don't know if you mean to dispute my point or not, but your post supports the same premise.  Why things are difficult to change isn't as important as the fact that it's difficult to change.  Regardless of why, the inflexibility of bitcoin is why it's still a slow and clunky crypto and why it hasn't been able to incorporate improvements that other crypto's have introduced.
137  Economy / Economics / Re: The UK's FCA and Binance talks break down on: August 28, 2021, 03:25:41 AM
There were a lot of talks regarding Binance being banned by the FCA for not meeting anti-money-laundering requirements. I guess it's the same old news, the only new information is that recently FCA presented more reasons for not allowing for Binance to operate in the UK.
Are you saying that FCA doesn't want Binance to operate in the UK as they presented more reasons in the table that Binance can't comply? If that is the case then Binance is losing a lot of customers. And what are the requirements that Binance can't meet? They have a plan IPO similar to Coinbase so they should look good at least before moving with this idea.

The FCA said it sent two requests for information about Binance's wider global business model and its stock tokens.  The information Binance sent back (when they even answered the requests) were viewed as, according to the FCA, "a refusal to supply information."  This is a huge red flag to regulators and should be to consumers as well.  If Binance does want to IPO, they better get on board with the regulatory regimes, because disclosures the disclosure requirements during the IPO process will be much more rigorous.
138  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin to trigger central bank collapse on: August 28, 2021, 03:06:44 AM
Why can't bitcoin coexist with central banks?

I see a future in which bitcoin acts as an alternative for those who believe that central banking is broken and fractional reserve is ultimately unsustainable.

These people will hold the majority of their wealth on the blockchain, where their wealth is secured by decentralisation. But inevitably there will also be a fiat economy that is only accessible through fiat currencies - and there will be interactions between the crypto and fiat economies through third parties.

Not really sure your wealth is "secured" by an asset that has such extreme volatility.  In reality, almost nobody moves a significant portion of their wealth into crypto.  Almost every significant stake holder either has a small minority in crypto, or came into crypto holdings through minimal external investment and just lucked into the huge price swing.
139  Economy / Economics / Re: When debt is an asset on: August 22, 2021, 05:17:53 AM
One thing I know is that debt is not always a bad thing as has been portrayed by the society. The right kind of debt has its advantages, of course when used by the right person. I read somewhere that, “net worth and debt are positively correlated: the more debt a household has, the more likely they are to have substantial financial assets.” However, this applies to good debts only. Good debts are assets for example durable investments in a house, a business, or a college degree which in turn make the individual profitable in the long run while on the other hand, bad debts drags the soul of the debtor to the ruins of extreme poverty.
Unfortunately it is not that simple in a society in which everything can be purchased on credit, I agree that credit can have its place but not in the way it is used by people, after all even if you ask for credit for things that seem to be worth it like a house, a business or a college degree as you say this does not mean that it is a good idea, if you ask for a credit to buy a house you could be buying at the top of the market and then lose your house when the prices of houses crash, like what happened during the 2008 crisis, not all college degree are created equal which is why there is a time bomb on the US with those loans and a business can fail before it even begins as it happened to a lot of people during this pandemic.

2008 was an anomaly.  In just about every other case, people who took a 30 year mortgage were better off in the long term for having done so and building equity in the property over time.  Real estate has been a central force in creating the American middle class over time.
140  Economy / Economics / Re: Die today, Die tommorrow, the same dying! still get vaccinated! on: August 22, 2021, 05:12:40 AM
No matter how strong your immune system is, your body will never make antibodies against covid-19 without being vaccinated or infected. So you should take the vaccine to have time. I haven't seen anyone die for the vaccine. I and my family have all been vaccinated. No one has any problem. So don't be panic.
No I didn't panic. It's the truth though. I have seen it with my own eyes when my neighbour almost died for not being able to breathe normally after getting vaccinated. It up to me if I want to get vaccinated or not. In my family, the only ine got vaccinated is my brother who got positive in covid19 and also my father who is 60+ years old and seems didn't have problem thank God. Even those who didn't get vaccinated and got positive even survived covid19 and now cured from it without the help of vaccine. Some of them got positive in covid19 after being vaccinated. Are you willing to take risk?.

Hundreds of millions of people have been vaccinated. You have one anecdotal story about a complication, that you don't even know is linked to the vaccine, and that's your reason for not getting vaccinated? It sounds like panic if you're ignoring hundreds of millions of instances of nothing going wrong to focus on the very few instances of someone reporting a complication.  Statistically, that's not a reasonable conclusion, so the irrationality of it would be better described as "panic."
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