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401  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you see yourself quitting after this bullrun? on: May 15, 2021, 02:20:11 PM
Many people already did. Whoever started buying crypto last year made at least x10 returns. Depending on how much they invested, that kind of returns are usually enough for most people to retire peacefully.

Might be that's the reason btc not making a new high. If sellers > buyers, price go down. $48k right now. Not looking good.

You’d have to have invested, at minimum, hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to have made enough to retire peacefully, and I doubt it’s all that many people in that boat. Plus, if you’re still holding it in crypto you’re at enormous risk is losing it because of the volatility, so retiring with a lot of a speculative asset as your nest egg would be extremely risky.
402  Economy / Economics / Re: After 1 year of Covid 19 Virus on: May 15, 2021, 02:15:58 PM
Brazil is a good example of a country reaping the consequences of having stupid leaders. All these ultra conservative politicians follow the same playbook- deny the virus is dangerous, deny the science about transmission, deny the growing pandemic is a problem, deny that statistics on deaths and hospitalizations, and then when it's too big to deny anymore blame it on something else instead of your own failed leadership.  Doesn't matter the country, the conservatives in each one have done this.

Jair Bolsonaro won the 2018 presidential elections with 55% of the vote. He was supported by the evangelical churches and the agrobusiness lobby. But the main factor behind his victory was the disqualification of leftist candidate Lula da Silva. If Lula was his opponent, then Bolsonaro would have lost the elections and therefore he got him disqualified (and jailed). Within 2 years (he took charge on 2019 January), Bolsonaro has managed to destroy vast swathes of Amazon rainforest, and encouraged illegal miners and loggers to invade indigenous reservations. Sometimes, lessons are learnt the hard way. Now at least some of those who voted for him would realize that doing so was a mistake.

Perhaps that’s true for some voters, but I’d put it in the vast minority of cases. If there’s an easy way to characterize what motivates a conservative voter it’s that they're generally low information voters who are motivated mainly by fear, which is why it’s so easy for these charlatan politicians to come in and convince them that there is a scapegoat for all their problems and only they can fix it so you have to vote for them. That was Bolsonaro’s pitch, that was and is still Trump’s pitch. And unfortunately there is a large segment of the population that will never been smart enough to see through it.
403  Economy / Economics / Re: I have Good news and Bad news about economy on: May 15, 2021, 02:11:59 PM
When economy is rising or progressing we are happy because its a sign of growth for each country, as per bitcoin is concern we really can't tell when it rise or when its down, sometimes they pump it, others dump it, market is unstable yet in all these things we are still hopeful like the goodnews you wants to share, let us be more pessimistic in our outlook when comes to bitcome rather than to think negative that more possibility will come and make our dreams come true.

Bitcoin is just a perfect example of a speculative market. Anyone who pretends like they understand what is happening or where bitcoin is going is either lying to themself or to you.
404  Economy / Economics / Re: Warren Buffett says he's sees ‘very substantial inflation’ and rising prices on: May 09, 2021, 05:50:52 AM
This serves as a counterpoint to everyone who says the US economy is "booming" atm.

It is interesting how every potential cause of inflation is mentioned here. EXCEPT for Biden and the fed printing increasing piles of fiat to fund their aggressive stimulus plans and COVID lockdowns.

The timeline of events and the media's stance on it form 2020 leading to the present, speaks volumes on everything.

It appears that those concerned with US dollar devaluation and potential hyperinflation can expect no relief from the fed or official sources. All of whom are already laying the groundwork to deny their involvement in any hyperinflation/devaluation which occurs.

Since the Fed has been actively trying to get the inflation rate above 2% on a macro scale, it seems like things right now are pretty much going as expected. Not sure why this is a giant shock to you. The Fed has not made it a secret, they've told everyone explicitly that they're targeting long-term average inflation rates of 2%, and because we've been below that for so long, that necessarily means inflation above that in order to reach the average of 2%.
405  Economy / Economics / Re: Biden's IRS Plans Could Boost Crypto Adoption on: May 09, 2021, 05:42:36 AM
Yes, I believe that no safe haven in crypto is real, I just wonder if their government is ready for a decentralized system. as we know that the government likes centralized systems with easier control and implementation. but let's see what they will do, because the value the OP mentioned is quite huge, if it can't be handled properly it could be the best jokes in history

It will just lead to more and more harassment for the tax payer. IRS is properly funded and doesn't need anymore funds. Those who are paying their taxes will continue to do so and those who are evading their taxes will do that. Just because $80 billion is given to the IRS, there is no guarantee that suddenly the tax collection is going to increase. Democrats got their power after 4 long years and they seems to be in a hurry to print banknotes. Biden has stated that his "American Families Plan" will cost the treasury some $6 trillion. I am not sure whether the American economy will be able to survive such a massive increase to the federal debt. At this point I have only one advice to the cryptocurrency holders - keep your BTC safe and secure. You will need them soon.

The underlined text is definitely false. The republicans have been cutting IRS funding and staffing for years to make the agency as ineffective as possible. The bolded text is exactly the problem, those evading taxes they owe will continue to do so unless the IRS is granted the ability to bring these scofflaws to justice. And the italicized text is a joke. Everyone knows that more IRS funding will definitely increase compliance and increase compliance, it's exactly the same reason republicans have targeted the agency to shrink its ranks.
406  Economy / Economics / Re: World risk - global on: May 09, 2021, 05:21:36 AM
The global risk posed by hacking bitcoin, has the nature like weapons of mass destruction., that is, it is unlikely to occur but the impact is very large and attacks many people. when Bitcoin dumps price 10% in one day then we can see all the crypto prices are collapse, How about if bitcoin is hacked ... it will destroy the cryptocurrency civilization.

If bitcoin died there are plenty of others to take its place. And it's hard to buy the argument that bitcoin disappearing would have wide-spread impact since the vast minority of people in the world have any exposure to bitcoin at all. It may affect some people immensely, but overall the impact would be quite small when measuring on a global scale.
407  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: May 09, 2021, 05:18:05 AM
It's unprofitable because they are still a luxury car in terms of their prices and it costs an arm and leg to buy heir least expensive unit, maybe if they are able to tap into the economic cars unit, they will probably go up in profit but right now, I don't think so. Also, I feel like oil companies are conspiring against Tesla because when electric cars become the dominant one, their products will be unwanted and sales are going to plummet real bad.

I don't think the Model 3 is out of reach for the majority of Americans, and that's the car they're bringing to mass production in hopes of reaching the masses. The problem is the Model 3 is not nearly as profitable as the other Tesla models, even at scale, so margins will compress as they sell more of those cars.
408  Economy / Economics / Re: Will China take over the world with the Digital Yuan? on: May 09, 2021, 05:15:23 AM
For the digital yuan to replace the US dollar, the global economy must have a need or interest. At the same time, there should still be understandable risks of using the new world currency. The question is - how do you think - is the current situation in the world economy in order to create a need to change the international currency of mutual settlements? Is there an assessment of the risks of working with a digital currency that is completely controlled, let's say honestly, by the ruling elite of the country, where there are a lot of nuances, underconfusions, information hiding, and hidden goals? For example, the United States cannot immediately stop or somewhere ban the circulation of the dollar. In a digital exchange protocol, this can be done quite easily, but I am sure that many of the technologies underlying the digital yuan will be classified and remain proprietary.


Firstly, ever nation that wants to get out from under the thumb of the US-denominated financial system has an incentive to adopt the digital Yuan. This includes countries that want to evade US sanctions, as well as those that want to weaken US hegemony.  At a minimum, this means Iran, North Korea and perhaps Russia to an extent, although the Russians are more likely to attempt a Russian digital currency than to become subservient to China. But as a strategic geo-rival, the Russians are very much interested in weakening the US globally.
409  Economy / Economics / Re: The Biden Tax and Spend Plan & The Big Cycle Swing on: May 09, 2021, 05:11:45 AM
I found this article very interesting,  especially for this chart below and the idea we are starting a new cycle of more taxes to pay for those economic stimulus.

As we can see, we are starting a new cycle due to the recent changes in the world.

Usd may not be the most stable currency anymore in the years to come. Gold and now bitcoin are interesting alternatives to protect our money from those economic cycles,  which certainly can hurt a lot of our savings.

As stated above  , people want that policy, this is why Biden won. even though it might have terrible consequences for the US and the whole world.

We will see a lot of government spending in the next years..

The taxes aren't to pay for stimulus specifically, but to reduce the deficit that republicans have exploded during every stint they've been in power since the 1980s. Although they do a lot of talking about how they're the party of fiscal discipline, a dispassionate look at the numbers reveals how big of a lie this is. Reagan promised to limit the size of government and then promptly doubled the size of the deficit with a rash of new spending while cutting taxes. Bush Jr. is still the president with the largest deficit in US history, and Trump inherited a recovering economy and rapidly shrinking deficit only to explode the deficit back over a trillion dollars under the best economy the US has seen in decades. The level of mismanagement is impossible to overstate.
410  Economy / Economics / Re: What's Next? After Bitcoin Passes The 60K Mark...... on: May 09, 2021, 05:00:06 AM
nowadays many people expect bitcoin to be corrected, and they can buy it. and in fact until recently bitcoin sideways formed a new defense. Keep in mind, if after this there is a correction, then I think there will be a deep correction, so we need to prepare to buy some support

If you define "correction" how the stock market traditionally defines a correction, then bitcoin just had a correction. It dropped from 65k to 52k just a couple weeks ago and has been recovering since then. But if you read the sentiment when this happens, people are eagerly embracing the opportunity, they're wondering why bitcoin is down and wondering how much lower it's gonna go.
411  Economy / Economics / Re: EFFECTIVE INVESTING STRATEGIES on: May 09, 2021, 04:51:33 AM
As far as bitcoin HODLING has been proven right in the past, that does not mean that it will be in the future.


If bitcoin's value appreciation is driven primarily by its deflationary nature. The trend will persist into the future barring freak incident. We have many decades worth of data on the effects inflation has upon fiat currency. It could be fair to say bitcoin is simply the inverse opposite of every observation and conclusion which can be drawn from fiat's long history.

There are uncertainties present in everything. Even gold and precious metals markets can be fraught with counterfeit gold/silver bars and hijacked commodities shipments. The idea that things which have been around longer than bitcoin/crypto are safer investments could be in question here in 2021.

The sad truth could be nothing is safe.

We don't know bitcoin's value is driven primarily by its deflationary nature; it could just be mass hysteria driven by media and the self-fulfilling prophecy of ever larger number of people believing in the meme that it can never fail. Historically, such financial blind faith has not ended well. I'd personally bet that nothing is safe more than bitcoin can never fail.
412  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla's Q1 SEC Reveale holding $2.48 Billion Bitcoin on: May 09, 2021, 04:44:42 AM
Why should I read the full article? You already gave us the TLDR: Tesla didn't sell their bitcoins and still hold lots of bitcoins. The dump wasn't caused by Elon.

They have already sold a few Bitcoins but only a part. Tesla's quarterly statement from two days ago, includes realized crypto profits of $101 million. Of course, that could have been Dogecoins, but Elon Musk has never confirmed that he or Tesla have invested in Doge. So it stands to reason that it must have been Bitcoin sales.

Except it was confirmed not to be dogecoin. Elon said Tesla bought and holds bitcoin. If it was dogecoin they would have said so. There's zero reason to substitute dogecoin in bitcoin's place or to raise uncertainty about which crypto Tesla owns since it is confirmed to be bitcoin.
413  Economy / Economics / Re: Biden's IRS Plans Could Boost Crypto Adoption on: May 08, 2021, 06:43:12 PM
President Biden is seeking $80 billion in extra funding to bolster IRS and tax enforcement.  There is an estimated one trillion dollars in uncollected taxes, and the program will more than pay for itself, boosting tax receipts by more than $700 billion over ten years.  To be clear, this is not a tax increase, but the enforcement of tax laws that are already on the books and which tax payers regularly skirt.

BUT, the interesting part is this:  Under the plan, banks and other payment providers would be required to tell the IRS how much money came into and out of individuals' and businesses' bank accounts each year.  This new information would be useful to the IRS in determining who to audit when a business or individual has far more bank activity than their tax return and tax bill would suggest.  (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-seek-80-billion-to-bolster-irs-tax-enforcement-11619539465)

Now, if you're a lowlife individual or business who is currently illegally underreporting your tax obligation, the new proposed bank reporting requirement is a threat to your illegal lifestyle.  Sure seems like an incentive to start transacting in crypto, doesn't it?

I do believe that as much as this is a measure to make sure that citizens do not evade tax,  it'll help promote the adoption of bitcoin in the United States. Truth be told, it is tactical move to curb the evasion of tax by citizens but since this will require banks to send statement of accounts to the IRS, it will cause many to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
One of the many advantages of bitcoin is anonymity which means you don't need your details to make transactions. You can send coins to any country at anytime without knowing the name of the recipient. All you need is a wallet address which is enough.

I think the points in and out of bitcoin are very few where you can get convert bitcoin anonymously, and once you're identified you can be tracked because all transactions are public. There are probably ways around it, and there are other coins that may be more privacy focused and make it harder to track and identify individuals, so enforcement will need to find a way close those loopholes if they ever become a large tax avoidance mechanism.
414  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto vs Stocks on: May 08, 2021, 04:46:25 PM
Cryptocurrencies are superior to stocks in so many ways in my opinion. The biggest advantage that cryptocurrencies hold is the anonymity factor which allows us to buy and sell them without worrying about external factors.

The next big advantage of cryptocurrencies is its volatility which could help you win or lose big amounts in a short span of time(High risk, High reward) in my opinion. This could also be observed as a disadvantage to some people.

There are several more advantages like easier learning curve etc due to which I always prefer cryptocurrencies over stocks.

There are very few places where you can exchange crypto anonymously and that number will continue to drop as necessary regulations move into place, such as KYC. Further, volatility is not a beneficial attribute of an asset. Day traders might like it, but people who want assets that actually protect wealth and not gamble with it will find volatility a huge detriment. Literally nothing you listed as a positive is an improvement in crypto over stocks.
415  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy is booming, but people are not seeing it. on: May 08, 2021, 04:39:34 PM

The government wouldnt be printing trillions of dollars to stimulate the booming economy if its true. There were even many riots going on and public shooting, this is a depiction growing frustration of the people while they already felt like Trump was bit better than Biden.

Economy is not booming anywhere in the world. There is inflation rising so fast thag even citizens receive stimulus package they still cant feel it because the food prices are soaring high.

Why would the government be printing trillions of dollars to stimulate an already booming economy? That's not the point of stimulus and not how stimulus works. You do stimulus when the economy is lagging.  As it is, the economy is booming in the US, posting robust GDP growth.  The US economy in Q1 2021 has already surpassed where it was in Q1 2019, so there's every expectation the economy will be back to where it was pre-COVID on a full-year basis.
416  Economy / Economics / Re: Markets taking profit on: May 08, 2021, 04:31:23 PM
Anyone who cares what the price has done over a 1 week period has invested more than they should have. If it's so much of a concern, you're over exposed. Price movements over a daily, weekly, or even monthly period are meaningless over the long term.

Everybody cared I guess, since that last correction was rather deep. Had Bitcoin only lost a thousand or two in a single day, it would have been tolerable. But it went from almost $65,000 to around $52,000 in around 3 days. It happened so quickly that it came as a surprise. I'm sure nobody expected it. Nobody braced for its coming. No doubt, it raised a few questions.

But it shouldn't be a cause for alarm or panic. If such correction elicited very strong emotional reactions, you're right, perhaps one's investment might be too much. Or perhaps one is just weak or too optimistic or too greedy.

If you're not expecting huge price drops in an asset that is defined by huge price volatility, that's on you I guess? It wasn't surprising to me and it won't be surprising to me when it happens again.  It was only a 20% drop, which is pretty routine even in assets that aren't defined by their volatility (like the stock market at large). Bitcoin has suffered far worse and will suffer far worse in the future.
417  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin wasn’t created to make you rich. It was created to Enslave U & Track U on: May 07, 2021, 08:11:18 PM
The blockchain technology is incredibly powerful and while bitcoin itself will not enslave us if the governments beat bitcoin and they impose their fiat currencies in digital form then we will become slaves, after all it is likely that in their currency you are only going to be allowed to have one address and they are going to be in control of the private keys of everyone, meaning they can confiscate or steal your money, know every transaction you make and in the case they think you are against them then they will not let you to spend your money and without cash you will not be able to buy anything.
I do not think that they will have private keys of their digital currency, you can still have fiat and store it somewhere they can't get to you, you can also put it in a bank where they can get to you as well of course, but it is all about what you want to do and not what they can do, if you want to avoid getting your money stolen by governments you can do that. Work in cash, show high costs to not pay taxes, and put your cash in a vault which you hide, the problem is solved.

However it is not about hiding from government or not, it is about how governments control the macro economy where they ruin everything, 100$ today worths much less than what it used to 10 years ago, and will worth less in 10 years from now, why? Inflation sounds like a good thing for growing but when that growing helps the rich but destroys the poor, how come it could be ever a good thing?
I do not think you understood what I meant, I am not talking about bitcoin I am talking about the digital currencies that governments are going to release and it is too naive in my opinion to believe that governments are not going to have all the private keys of every single address ever created and that they are going to know who it belongs to, this is why we cannot let governments win this battle because if they do we do not know how long is it going to take for another project to challenge their power.

China is releasing a digital Yuan (there's already a pilot program running in the country) and you're right, they are able to monitor the flow of money in real time. They know exactly how much money you have, where you spend it, and most alarmingly, they can assign the money to expire if not spent by a certain date which forces stimulus spending by the population without cost to the government of handing out money and hoping people spend it. Digital currencies are going to be a very bad development, and yet they seem inevitable.
418  Economy / Economics / Re: Biden's IRS Plans Could Boost Crypto Adoption on: May 07, 2021, 08:06:40 PM
And who exactly will give him this $80 billion then all the people who already pay taxes all the time, it's not coming from his own pockets, and his ''plan'' is to hire more people to work for government and IRS...

The government defines the taxes and people pay them. People cheating the current tax laws costs the US government hundreds of billions of dollars a year. The IRS audits people to find the cheats and forces them to pay up. The IRS is understaffed (intentionally because of republican deliberate attempts to undermine the system).  So spending $80 billion dollars on more IRS staff will create $800 billion over the next 10 years in people paying the taxes they currently owe but cheat the government out of.  To answer your question, the money initially comes from congress, it ultimately is paid back 10x by people paying taxes they owe.

Now, if you're a lowlife individual or business who is currently illegally underreporting your tax obligation, the new proposed bank reporting requirement is a threat to your illegal lifestyle.  Sure seems like an incentive to start transacting in crypto, doesn't it?

Your topic is misleading and I don't understand how moving illegal transaction to Bitcoin public blockchain ledger would make any sense with crypto adoption...
except maybe making work easier for federal agents to catch you and track everything you did online, because they need to cash out at some point with this transactions.
Biden can't do anything good for Bitcoin from his basement with his new regulations, and honestly I think he is just reading the script and doing what someone else told him to do.

Topic isn't misleading, you just don't understand what's going on. If banks are required to report transaction totals to the government (which they don't have to do currently), it increases the audit risk for anyone dodging taxes. This incentivizes anyone dodging taxes to reduce banking transactions in order to continue evading taxes, which means either cash or crypto. Since cash isn't particularly useful in an e-commerce economy, crypto becomes attractive for those trying to dodge paying taxes.
419  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: May 07, 2021, 07:55:58 PM
As far as the EV's go... I am not really a EV believer. I will buy a petro-car as long as they let me buy it. Not really a fan of batteries.

Not surprised. EVs are unaffordable and not worth the money under current circumstances. A Tesla Model S costs around $80,000, and you can get a decent gasoline-driven car with the same specs for around $20,000. So right now, purchasing an EV doesn't make any financial sense. Still you can go for it, for ideological purposes. The issue here is that ideological factor may not drive enough sales. The EV needs to be more affordable. A difference of 4x is too much. If it was 1.5x to 2.0x, then more people would consider purchasing EVs.

The Model S is their higher end offering, it's not meant to be the mass market car. The Telsa Model 3 is the mass market car with a price range in the $30,000 range, so much more affordable to the masses. This brings it close to what the average price paid for a new car is. With the lower price comes compressed margins though, so as Model 3s take up a larger share of revenues, the gross profit on these cars will be considerably less than what Tesla has experienced thus far, which proves another problem for the current valuation.
420  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla Bought 1.5 B in Bitcoins on: May 07, 2021, 07:51:47 PM

I don't know where you got the number of bitcoins from, as it's not been released in any filing and Elon has only commented in terms of USD.

You are right.
My numbers are based on speculations.
I will look at that article and try to improve my numbers. I might have missed some important piece of information.



EDIT:

I am estimating the buys at 39,000 USD.
This gives me, in this spreadsheet, a value of roughly 38,462 BTC.


I see in the article you posted the following:


Quote
One thing we know is, that there was a massive area of demand around 32000$ during January that could have been Tesla’s bids and based on that average price we’d look at a whopping 46875 BTC.

This looks so optimistic: looking at the Cryptoquant graph I see two major outflows in January, that might be linked to TSLA (message reported also in OP):



If I change the buying level to 33,000 USD, the amount grows to 45,455 BTC.



This would put the valuation at 1Q21 right at 2.48 billion.
Mystery solved?


I think it's a lot closer than it was. It's all still speculation until we can get a hard number from a regulatory filing, but until then everyone is trying to piece it together based on information that has been publicly released. It's like trying to assemble a puzzle where you don't even know how many pieces there are or what shape they're supposed to be.
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