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1301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 05:07:32 PM
Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  Wink

FUCK THE FED!

Literally bitcoin exists to not rely on the Fucking FED.

*Batslapp



I made a call today for a loan as I'm outta ammo and taste blood.
1302  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 03:19:31 AM
Here is an 'interesting" suggestion re new poll on WO:

How much are you currently losing "on paper" from the ATH in your current bitcoin position (not counting the profit/loss from earlier sells)

1. less than $1K
2. between $1k and $10K
3. between $10K and 100K
3. between $100K and $1 mil
4. between $1mil and $10mil
5. between $10mil and $100mil
6. Above $100mil

Not sure if people would be honest in their answers, but am curious to see the spread anyway.

1, 1btc=1btc
1303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 03:07:20 AM
Thank you both.  I know WO.  I sometimes see you mad hatters posting memes about people getting wrecked on margin, trying to warn the clueless newbies.  So true!



You'll know what to do when theres blood in the streets cup.

go on margin?
...sorry...too soon?

80x or bust.
1304  Economy / Speculation / THE BBS DOCUMENTARY DVDS ARE NO LONGER FOR SALE... SEE IT FOR FREE! on: June 15, 2022, 03:06:24 AM
http://www.bbsdocumentary.com/order/

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7nj3G6Jpv2G6Gp6NvN1kUtQuW8QshBWE
1305  Economy / Speculation / El Salvador minister says Bitcoin crash poses 'extremely minimal' fiscal risk on: June 15, 2022, 03:04:52 AM
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/el-salvador-minister-says-bitcoin-crash-poses-extremely-minimal-fiscal-risk-2022-06-13/


Quote
"Forty million dollars does not even represent 0.5% of our national general budget," he said.
1306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 03:03:05 AM
Thank you both.  I know WO.  I sometimes see you mad hatters posting memes about people getting wrecked on margin, trying to warn the clueless newbies.  So true!



You'll know what to do when theres blood in the streets cup.
1307  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2022, 05:05:24 PM
In 6 months we will hear about Morgen Stanley and Goldmann Ballsacks hoovering up all these cheap coins as they push their own ETF's.
1308  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2022, 04:25:23 PM
Keep in mind that the very top of bull markets, and the very bottom of bear markets, the narrative rhetoric is all the same:

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lofty predictions.

Near the bottom of bear markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" (often the same ones) will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much lower. The uber bearishness doom-and-gloom is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lowly predictions.

This is all by design.

They want you to be "all in" at the top (because greed), and "all out" at the bottom (because fear).

If they didn't lie to the mindless sheeple where would the profits come from for those writing the script?
1309  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 01:54:39 PM


Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/
1310  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 02:13:33 AM
Not your keys and all that. Is this the reason for the dump



LOL, anyone caught in this has no-one to blame but themselfs we warned and berated every shill for this scam.
1311  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: June 13, 2022, 01:10:30 AM
ArticMine PMed me after I wrote that flaming post, and said he would reply after studying my posts. He has not yet replied. Does that mean I am correct and there is no solution for Monero. I think so.

It is fundamental. Afaics, you'd have to completely rewrite Moaneuro. Tongue

Rewrite Monero, is not necessary at all but some documentation on how the Cryptonote adaptive blocksize limits actually work is needed, especially given the formula in section 6.2.3 of the Cryptonote Whitepaper is wrong. https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf. My response will come in time.

I will start by examining the Cryptonote Penalty Function for oversize blocks. This is critical to understand any form of spam attack against a Cryptonote coin. From the Cryptonote whitepaper I cited above the penalty function is:

Penalty = BaseReward (BlkSize / MN - 1)2

The new reward is:

NewReward = BaseReward - Penalty

Where MN is the median of the blocksize over the last N blocks
BlkSize is the size of the current block
BaseReward is the reward as per the emission curve or where applicable the tail emission
NewReward is the actual reward paid to the miner
The Maximum allowed blocksize, BlkSize, is 2MN
The penalty is only applied when BlkSize > (1 + Bmin) MN Where 0 < Bmin < 1 In the Cryptonote whitepaper Bmin = 0.1.
 
The error in the Cryptonote Whitepaper was to set NewReward = Penalty

For simplicity I will define:
BlkSize = (1+B) MN
BaseReward = Rbase
Penalty (for a given B) = PB
NewReward (for a given B) = RB

The penalty for a given B becomes:
PB = RbaseB2
While the new reward for a given B becomes:
RB = Rbase(1 - B2)
The first derivative of PB with respect to B is
dPB / dB = 2RbaseB

In order to attack the coin by bloating the blocksize the attacker needs to cause at least over 50% of the miners to mine oversize blocks and for an expedient attack close to 100% or the miners to mine oversize blocks. This attack must be a maintained over a sustained period of time and more importantly must be maintained in order to keep the oversized blocks, since once the attack stops the blocks will fall back to their normal size.  There are essentially two options here:

1) A 51% attack. I am not going to pursue this for obvious reasons.

2) Induce the existing miners to mine oversize blocks. This is actually the more interesting case; however after cost analysis it becomes effectively a rental version of 1 above. Since the rate of change (first derivative) of PB is proportional to B the most effective option for the attacker is to run the attack with B = 1. The cost of the attack has as a lower bound Rbase but would be higher, and proportional to, Rbase  because miners will demand a substantial premium over the base reward to mine the spam blocks due to the increased risk of orphan blocks as the blocksize increases and competition from legitimate users whose cost per KB for transaction fees needed to compete with the attacker will fall as the blocksize increases. The impact on the coin is to stop new coins from being created while the attack is going on. These coins are replaced by the attacker having to buy coins on the open market in order to continue the attack. The impact of this is to further increase the costs to the attacker.

It at this point where we see the critical importance of a tail emission since if Rbase = 0 this attack has zero cost and the tragedy of the commons actually occurs. This is the critical difference between those Cryptonote coins that have a tail emission, and have solved the problem, such as Monero and those that do not, and will in a matter of time become vulnerable, such as Bytecoin.

Edit June 12, 2022 02:37:35: PM Previous edit January 18, 2016, 05:45:13 AM

This edit is after the start of the tail emission so Rbase = 0.6 XMR, and over six years since the original post. I wish to note the following:

We add a transaction of size TT to a block at a point B in the penalty, and define BT = TT / MN; the new penalty becomes Rbase(B+BT)2. The difference between the old and the new penalty is then Rbase(2BBT + BT2)

a) The cost of the attack in 2 above with B = 1, which was later called "The Big Bang" attack can be shown to have a lower bound of 4Rbase by analyzing the game theory of the Monero fee market. The only assumption that is needed is a free market of miners and users acting in their enlightened self interest. To understand this fee market one needs to consider a mining adding transactions to a block. The miner adds transactions in the order of the fee per byte (this is actually a very good approximation, where the BT << B, to the discrete optimization problem). The miner will then stop given one of the following:

1) The miner runs out of transactions  
2) The additional penalty to add a transaction is greater than the fee paid by the transaction
3) B = 1 (There is no more space in the block)

The key to the game theory is that: The last transaction added to the block has paid the lowest fee, and this fee corresponds to the highest additional penalty paid to add a transaction to the block One can then place a lower bound on the cost of a Big Bang attack per block at B =  1 as 4Rbase. Rbase goes to feed the penalty compensating the miners for an effective coin burn, while 3Rbase goes to the miners who profit at the expense of the attacker. The original wording gives the impression that the cost per block to the attacker is only Rbase. This latter cost per block is actually the additional cost per block for a Big Bank attack as an add on to a 51% attack as in 1 above.

b) The analysis in a) above does not take in to account the additional cost and delay to a Big Bang attacker as a result of Long Term Median that was added starting in 2019

c) The additional cost to a Big Bang attacker due to orphan block refers to, Peter R. Rizun, A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block Size Limit, August 2015 https://www.bitcoinunlimited.info/resources/feemarket.pdf. This leads to an additional effective penalty. that is exponential in the blocksize and proportional to the block reward. This is of course subject to the assumptions in the paper.
 

Quoted for update.
1312  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Charts | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days) on: June 12, 2022, 07:37:55 PM
Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).


Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't mada a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.


Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free time, I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

How crazy is that!

3 Years to the day.

Its cool we can now tell anyone that 3 years on the outside is your profit window according to all historical data even if you bought the top.

Buy and Hodl baby is the way, the best time to buy is yesterday but today is much better than tomorrow. Cheesy
1313  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 on: June 12, 2022, 07:24:20 PM
WHY PPR is Bad.

A player gets one target from the 10 yard line and takes it to the house.


90 yds 9pts
tds 6pts

Total 15 standard points
PPR 1pt
total 16 PPR points

A Prima Dona back that makes 10 times that above players salary total per year gets 20 targets and catches 16 for NO Touchdown and NO appreiciable effect on the game.

0 yds 0pts
0 tds 0pts

Total 0 standard points
PPR   16pt
total 16 PPR points


A worse effect is we don't see these widely skewed numbers regularly but only variations of them so its not apparent to the masses that this is PPR.

What happens is People that have no clue go on twatter and bitch and complain that their Prima donna back didn't get enough targets and thats why the team lost when that is not actually the case as they see target share as a metric for the team doing well when in fact it is the opposite.

When hoards of these arm chair coaches make enough noise coaches cow down and increase the non productive players share which only makes the team myoptic which in turn cause a spiral down of the players and the team. This is a self fulfilling prophecy that harms the internal structure of the team as a whole. And is being fed by the popularity of PPR.

PPR is sold as a easier game for beginners but in fact it is a easier game for algorithms. If you don't believe me then just check how many leagues get won by autodrafted teams. I found it amusing that Chicity has a hatred for autodraft when in fact his hatred is for the algo that is correct most of the time, he just didn't connect the dots that this is due to PPR.

well I'm tired and in pain and just wanted to make a quick post of my thoughts on the subject as you guys asked. Wink
I'm not spell checking cause i'm just hurting today and want to take a pill and browse.

also this is a good example and as morvillz7z  pointed out, its an easy google.

https://nypost.com/2019/08/01/how-to-keep-ppr-scoring-from-ruining-fantasy-football-forever/
Quote
Chris Carson ranked fifth in rushing yards, tied for seventh in touchdowns and converted the third-most first downs of any running back, yet he ranked 14th among running backs in total fantasy points. Sure, his receiving numbers were paltry, but based on total yards and touchdowns, he should have been virtually even with James White in scoring (185 fantasy points to White’s 189). But instead, he trailed White by more than 70 points.

Quote
PPR leagues are everything that’s wrong with America: A fantasy football debate
https://next.voxcreative.com/sponsored/9333087/ppr-leagues-are-everything-that-s-wrong-with-america-a-fantasy

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4kpo2q/what_are_your_arguments_for_ppr_vs_standard/


Personally I would love to see points per first down added and maybe some others but I get tired enough just trying to stop the PPR infiltration into fun leagues I'm in.
1314  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 on: June 12, 2022, 03:03:27 AM
I am still adamant that I will not play ANY PPR.

What's that, point per reception?  If that's a deal-breaker, then it's settle, lol!  No PPR!  Just out curiosity though, what is it you don't like about it?

god, long list when i'm feeling up to it i'll elaborate.


Holy shit, man!  I'm glad you're still here to join us!  I wish you a speedy and complete recovery.

What happened to cause you to lose control?  If you don't mind me asking.  I still ride for recreation and road trips, and I know how dangerous it can be.  I'm getting to the age where injuries taking substantially longer to heal, which has finally caused me to slow it down a bit.  And I do mean A BIT!  Undecided

traffic hit fog bank on a curve and i followed car in front of me off road. Wink
1315  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 02:57:18 AM
Snowden is a Zcrap insider.

The “trusted setup” is gone in Halo2—a

Leave the shitcoin shilling to another thread.
1316  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 12:18:22 AM
I am a very fan of Snowden, especially or what he did, although his statements about BTC do not like this time, he wants more privacy, but does not understand that BTC goes far beyond privacy.

Bitcoin “Is Failing as an Electronic Cash System”: Edward Snowden

Quote
Edward Snowden has said that he is "very much a fan" of Bitcoin, but he thinks that its lack of privacy could mean it fails in the long term.
The American whistleblower said that there are multiple crypto assets that can be thought of as money akin to gold rather than currencies.
He added that he thinks competition between cryptocurrencies is a net positive for the world.



Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-failing-electronic-cash-edward-snowden/?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss

I think everyone is looking for is focusing more on payments, Fiat money and do not see the complete potential that BTC represents.

Snowden is a Zcrap insider.
1317  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 on: June 12, 2022, 12:09:08 AM
12 teams would be good but no-one we don't know even 2 people cheating wiull ruin a fun league.

Southpark did a great job and hopefully he will step up again otherwise we can discuss who should be commish.

Also I agree that yahoo is the best hosting site and all we will need to do is port over the agreed on rules.

I am still adamant that I will not play ANY PPR.

sorry not posting much but I got into a bike accident.

Hit a telephone pole doing 45 and broke my back, pelvis and 4 ribs along with a dislocation and a ton of other smaller injuries.
1318  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2022, 07:31:58 PM
Good morning WO. I see we are desperately in need of a new poll.

Any realistic TA which says we will see 40k soon?

Only my gut feeling is saying so….
Does that count as TA?

I've found SOMA to be far more accurate than TA. Cheesy
1319  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Charts | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days) on: June 11, 2022, 07:01:43 PM
Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.
1320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2022, 03:32:52 PM
 Knowing you, you will probably laugh.

Your correct and /i did. Cheesy

Quote
And get better soon.

Damn. Get better soon! You gotta be careful on bikes. Those things have a mind of their own sometimes...

Thanks guys, appreciate it. Smiley


ouch. take it easy.. get better soon.

takes more thAHONE POLE TO KEEP ME DOWN FOR LONG. :d

stupid bt keyboard causing tons of issues.


Anyhoo's had a slight setback and havn't been able to type so didnt post what happened yet but i'll give a rundown of the injuries Sans the bumps and bruises.

dislocated left ring finger
Sprained left ankle
re injury of l4-l5,l5s1 disks
T1 vertebrae fracture
Pelvis puncture and break in socket on right side
4 broken ribs

all manageable and will heal with rest and rehab so all in all damn lucky.

stupid pelvis break is the worst as i cant put any weight on it at all for 8-12 weeks and need that damn left ankle for all my weight lol.

anyway, I give a rundown when i'm in a better place and comfort zone.

trying to get released from trauma unit today.
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