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now that exactly what I have been talking about happened...
Any questions as to why bitcoinica is not doing us any good ?
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Also, what we're now seeing is because of bitcoinica. Well done Z.
Once again, I will 100 percent agree with you.  |
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You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?
Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!
Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!
People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already. You do have a good point here. I've noticed that on average I had much lower expectations from the Good Wife episode than most people had. I was very surprised that it was so good. The boost we got from it was amazing, Google trends haven't spiked this high since June. And we have more money in the market than we have ever had since the summer as well. It's really NOT unreasonable to expect double digit prices soon. What I miscalculated perhaps was how priced in the Good Wife episode was already. I didn't expect much from but apparently many did. Or at least thought that most do, so they speculated on it. Even with this realization I'm quite sure that what Bitcoinica is experiencing right now has a major effect on the market. That's undeniable. A good share of Mt. Gox volume comes from Bitcoinica so when it has problems, there is a strong effect on Mt. Gox. Bingo... |
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To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.
I'm done with bitcoinica. Back to good old fashioned MtGox trading for me. Smart!  |
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To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.
And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.
FTFY No, but its kind of surprising how much shit I'm getting in this thread, considering what I posted this morning turned out to be entirely correct. What, that's it's going to crash? I'd hardly call that little dip a crash. The fact is you're being uppity and it's annoying. If you were referring to another prediction (maybe one with some actual targets), please quote it instead of referring to "what I posted". What this is really about is me being new. I've been on enough internet message boards to spot it. The new guy is the troll and the old guard are always right. You revealed yourself when you used the word 'uppity'. Reread this thread. teflone responded to what I first posted with sarcasm. I responded in kind. We went back and forth. But I'm uppity? Where is the distinction? Ohhhhh that was sarcasm, I think we all missed that... sorry brother.. My bad... |
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To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.
And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.
FTFY No, but its kind of surprising how much shit I'm getting in this thread, considering what I posted this morning turned out to be entirely correct. What, that's it's going to crash? I'd hardly call that little dip a crash. The fact is you're being uppity and it's annoying. If you were referring to another prediction (maybe one with some actual targets), please quote it instead of referring to "what I posted". He's new, cut him some slack, plus he grades on a curve... |
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Awesome article, Im actually in the process of making a 3d printer... Me too! I'm almost done building the Thing-o-matic. Which one are you working on?? Im leaning towards reprap, heard good things about it here, keep in touch, I will have some questions for you later!  |
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Guys, this was already discussed and answered by zhoutong. The "*" sign appears not only when they are out of reserves, but also when there's a problem with MtGox API and Bitcoinica can't connect to make trades/get rates. When this happens they block the trades for 10-15 seconds. And that's it, nothing to see here, move along.
It's important because it affects the level of liquidity in the Bitcoinica pseudo-market. Just as problems with deposits/withdrawals and account access has effected the liquidity of the exchanges. And it's not going to get better until Z can operate his own exchange.Crossing fingers! |
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When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..
Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day. This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!". The expected happened: he ran out of reserves. I hope he learned his lesson. As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging. And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community. Im not saying leveraging is the problem, Im saying that ALL the leveraging is done on bitcoinica, which is essentially, when it gets down to it, goes onto mtgox, when bitcoinica gets to a point that it needs to change its position, this causes the wild spikes, which is made worse by the excessive leveraging like you said.. No offense to Zhou, but you guys realize hes making the most when these momentary spikes causes liquidation. (Zhoutounged) Mtgox price being the defacto standard in the community is the problem, and bitcoinica is just adding to the volatility of mtgox. We need another exchange with high volume, bitcoinica has the potential to do this, I hope they do this someday soon. Then and only then will we have the starting of a buffer for the market. In other words, the excessive leveraging on bitcoinica that all transposes down to mtgox is making things worse. Edit - I should note also, I have never been liquidated, and actually have made 22 dollars from bitcoinica in the few times I've used it So Im not biased because I've been hit hard .. -- Gox needs to step it up and implement margin trading to balance things. Not the exchange type I was thinking of. I meant the trading exchange, with depth chart, and so forth.. |
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When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..
Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day. This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!". The expected happened: he ran out of reserves. I hope he learned his lesson. As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging. And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community. Im not saying leveraging is the problem, Im saying that ALL the leveraging is done on bitcoinica, which is essentially, when it gets down to it, goes onto mtgox, when bitcoinica gets to a point that it needs to change its position, this causes the wild spikes, which is made worse by the excessive leveraging like you said.. No offense to Zhou, but you guys realize hes making the most when these momentary spikes causes liquidation. (Zhoutounged) Mtgox price being the defacto standard in the community is the problem, and bitcoinica is just adding to the volatility of mtgox. We need another exchange with high volume, bitcoinica has the potential to do this, I hope they do this someday soon. Then and only then will we have the starting of a buffer for the market. In other words, the excessive leveraging on bitcoinica that all transposes down to mtgox is making things worse. Edit - I should note also, I have never been liquidated, and actually have made 22 dollars from bitcoinica in the few times I've used it So Im not biased because I've been hit hard .. |
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To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.
And you don't need to lead this horse to any water, thank you.
Congrads! You've discovered we BOTH have opinions, you'll fit right in here. And Im sure you have enough water, never thought otherwise.. Welcome aboard.. Grade - ( ) |
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Temthaw, how about you follow all my posts and grade them, then I will feel the nostalgia of 15 years ago when I was in university, and I will strive to keep you happy. Im much more of a "lead a horse to water" type then spelling it out and drowning the horse. People need to reach their own conclusions... Grade - ( ) |
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets? The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will. But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you. I never said that Bitcoinica was hurting the community as a whole. The market did crash in June, after a rally. You have nothing to say to me because it seems you don't have much to say in general. Yes, Im quiet as a mouse in church!  I wasn't referring to your posting frequency, just the quality and depth of what you post. Yes, Im very shallow in my thoughts, dont mind me, I have little to no thought at all.. |
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The problem isn't the idea of leverage. The problem is that it is used excessively in the most unfitting situations. This will go wrong eventually, and that will help repair the problem by punishing overconfident trading, weakening those who do it and strengthening conservative speculators.
Yes, that coupled with it all being on mtgox, this is the problem. It dosent buffer the market at all in my eyes, until there is compitition with mtgox on a scale(volume) that is near mtgox.. |
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currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels
if you all leverage in one direction and there 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction? you play high risk game you should assume high risk.
Ok, your not far off from my train of thought.. But consider this.. It delays the inevitable, and causes wild swings when the dam finally breaks, thus liquidating positions for these momentary wild swings.. It dosent so much stem the tide, but band-aids it up with a very very thin wall temporarily Then! you have no btc or USD availbility in the appropriate direction. Now if he had the over head, the market will move where it wants to go. Good or bad.. Its like market procrastination so to speak. And on top of that the mtgox traders moving to bitcoinica makes this worse.. The best thing Zhou can do is be his own exchange with leveraging, to compete with Mtgox, once they have it too, THIS will be helpful in the ways you are talking.. 2 exchanges with margins. |
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I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..
But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.
i disagree strongly, i came to conclusion that bitcoinica provides fair balance and stability which is more important to healthy growth then wild roller-coasters, it also offers opportunity for new comers to enter at decent rates. and it's not bitcoinica as much as the players on that boat. thing is there is no yet much of new funds slower you go - further you get When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps.. Dont get me wrong, I love the "idea" of Bitcoinica, and I have immense respect for Zhou, hes a hard worker, and a professional. Personally I would not have an issue with bitcoinica if it was its OWN exchange.. not parle to mtgox. |
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people.. It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets? The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will. But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you. I never said that Bitcoinica was hurting the community as a whole. The market did crash in June, after a rally. You have nothing to say to me because it seems you don't have much to say in general. Yes, Im quiet as a mouse in church! |
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people.. It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. Well, yes, yes it did. Proudhon and his NEW maths... I'm serious. Didn't the market crash in June? Am I missing something? I know its hard, but try the real world math.. Take the first day of june btc to usd price... then look at the last day of june btc price.. Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? Proudhon is back! and SHORT! |
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people.. It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets? The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will. But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people will help, I have little to say to you. |
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people.. It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. Well, yes, yes it did. Proudhon and his NEW maths... |
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