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1361  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling Investment | I NEED HELP on: December 07, 2020, 10:22:48 PM
Hi everyone, I am not new to this space or forum but decided to create an account and needed some help from the community.

I currently have some funds resting in my wallet, and I'm looking for trusted gambling sites where I can invest these funds.

I am not stranger to gambling investments, in the past, I have invested on sites like Yolodice and Crypto games, but I am looking for any new sites which might exist and maybe can have a thread to so how my investment is progressing every week

Apart from Bustabit/bustadice, try Bitvest.

Their volume is pretty low (in terms of the wagered amounts), but they offer a range of cryptos that you can invest in (BTC, LTC, ETH). Their low bankroll also sort of balances out the fact that they don't have a great deal of gambling volume, which gives you a greater share of the profit pie compared to others.

But whatever you do, make sure you diversify. You never know how circumstances may evolve into the future in terms of dice sites going bust or owners going rogue (not suggesting any site in particular here, but there is always a default risk).
1362  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will Bookmakers Suspend/Restrict My Account if I Profit in the Long Term? on: December 07, 2020, 10:16:42 PM
This is something I don't get. If these bookmakers are going to suspend or restrict my account in the case of profiting too much, why should I even bother with sports betting in the first place? What's the point? Having fun while losing money?

That's the point from the sportsbook's perspective, at least.

Their business is essentially offering this service to you for a fee - and that fee is an inherent disadvantage on your part due to subpar odds that they offer.

Quote
Which leads me to the question, are there any reputable bitcoin sports betting exchange sites? And will they suspend/restrict my account too if I profit too much although they won't be affected by my winnings so logically they shouldn't care about it. In fact, since the pool and liqudity get bigger they should even support it. So, is it really the same case with bitcoin exchange sites too so that I should give up betting if I plan on winning in the end?

I think that there are a few concerns that may result in a suspension, the biggest of which may be insider betting. This is why you see extremely low limits on newly established leagues such as esports imo.

I doubt that centralised sportsbooks are going to change their ways in terms of restricting accounts on big profits, because most of the time a) you are playing against the house, so your win is their loss (of course, they would also hedge some of their bets) and b) sporting events are not truly provably random.

But as others said, betting exchanges have no net position in any bet, so they would have no trouble with you beating the market (just as any crypto exchange wouldn't mind whales profiting on derivatives, as long as they get their share of fees).
1363  Economy / Services / Re: Duelbits.com | YouTube Video Review ~ Earn up to $50! Ends December 17th on: December 06, 2020, 02:39:19 AM
Rendered part II:

Video link: https://youtu.be/V29glfgbtQI
Display Name: magnetobtc
Duelbits ID: d7a8f2ed-8544-509c-8abf-1550ca42644d

Thanks again Hhampuz!
1364  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin and gold price inflation adjusting all-time-high on: December 06, 2020, 02:16:44 AM
Quote
We should be able to differentiate between all-time-high in price of assets which is usually in US dollar and the real all-time-high in value. Gold was able to reach all-time-high in price if compared to UD dollar this year, but in real value, gold has not reached all-time-high since 1980. While bitcoin in just three years reached all-time-high today in price in US dollar but not yet reached all-time-high in real value as it needs to get to a price of $21,131.02 as a result of US dollar inflation too, but very possible this will only be achievable in just less than three years.

Certainly. And this is the fallacy that a lot of investors tend to fall prey to.

Gold bugs such as Schiff seem to believe that no matter what your point of entry is, as long as you get your hands on gold, you are guaranteed a long term profit. This is completely untrue given the fact that gold has not outperformed the CPI over the past 5 decades even when its current price is at an all time high.

A similar logic should be applied to BTC if you are a truly 'intelligent investor' (quoting Ben Graham here). Even though BTC is a good store of value in the long run, there are no guarantees that it will be if you buy at peaks and sell at lows. Even if BTC markets go up long term, if you engage in that type of counterproductive trading, you could lose money on your position even if the wider market make sizable gains.

And don't think that just because inflation is low these days, it can be ignored. History has shown that future inflation is more likely to be mean-reverting, not to be extrapolated from the past.
1365  Economy / Economics / Re: 2021 not Looking good on: December 06, 2020, 02:03:45 AM
2021 not Looking good!

Only things what could be good are Bitcoin and cryptocurrency
Other things dont look good!

The economy will go lowest i Think.

Becouse there is still some countries who operating quite normal like sweden, finland but 2021 I think they have to face reality

And I dont see that Central Banks will just recklessly print money anymore just to pump Up economy I think this time they will say no more free money we dont kill the currencies with inflation

I dont belive that money printing dream anymore
And I think the Central bankers are same realistic as I am.

I doubt it.

QE is basically on everyone's agendas right now and will likely continue to be in the future. A lot of central banks have been swayed from a hawkish, conservative stance to a much more accommodative and experimental regime due to the effects of the pandemic.

When the vaccine comes out there is no doubt that the fiat economy will rebound. It would be unrealistic to proclaim otherwise.

But I also believe that BTC and crypto in general will have a great year, as they are increasingly seen as a hedge against downturn (further evidenced by this COVID crisis). The fact that institutional investors and even retiree funds are drastically increasing their positions is a great sign in terms of short term returns at the very least. BTC and fiat economy both having a good year simply aren't mutually exclusive.
1366  Economy / Services / Re: Duelbits.com | YouTube Video Review ~ Earn up to $50! Ends December 17th on: December 06, 2020, 01:41:03 AM
First vid:

Video link: https://youtu.be/BYqVZDw1V28
Display Name: magnetobtc
Duelbits ID: d7a8f2ed-8544-509c-8abf-1550ca42644d

Part II incoming soon  Tongue
1367  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do the odds of other outcomes matter to you? on: December 06, 2020, 01:30:05 AM
Your expected value at the end of the day should be relatively the same (assuming that you don't have information regarding the match that would result in you having an advantage over the house). As others have mentioned, these odds are entirely dependent on the projected probabilities and therefore price of each outcome.

So does it matter? Absolutely. You don't want to be betting on an event where there is significant spreads that leads to a very high house advantage -  that would be shooting yourself in the foot. And that can only be determined by looking at the payout and probabilities of each outcome of your 1x2 bet.

But I wouldn't pick the match that you bet on solely on odds of outcomes you don't bet on, because at the end of the day you are likely to have a disadvantage either way against the house (again, assuming no reliable tips). Pick the one that would give you more satisfaction if you win because after all, it's all entertainment.
1368  Economy / Services / Re: Roobet.com | YouTube Review Video | Earn up to $50! - Ends December 18th! on: December 06, 2020, 01:13:28 AM
Roobet username: MagnetoBitcoin
Video link: https://youtu.be/LVb6SUIUM5o

Thanks Hhampuz!
1369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Seems like the bullrun is over this year! on: December 06, 2020, 01:05:54 AM
I invested my daughter's savings 3 days ago yet the market is tumbling.
So, I lost some of her money due the current market conditions.

It's December, after all!
Are the bulls gone now or what?

That's not investing. It's pure speculation (which fits this board).

I doubt the bull market has come to a conclusion. There seems to be a general market consensus that it'll be a matter of time before $20k resistance is breached. Whether or not $20k can be established as some form of psychological support begs another question altogether.

But the fact is that you are not playing with your own money. I don't know the significance of the savings to your daughter, and whether or not you are even authorised to access it. If you are not, I suggest you withdraw your investment or at least consult your daughter before you proceed - that's my bottom line even as an avid long term BTC holder.
1370  Economy / Exchanges / Re: It seems that KYC will be a must for all CEX users in Future on: December 06, 2020, 12:54:09 AM
Today December 4th 2020 Bitmax exchange have announced to stop providing services to non verified users, no more withdrawal limit for not verified users, I'm guessing if every other crypto exchanges will follow this, binance for example, I use this exchange with out KYC verifications, for someone like myself who don't want to give any centralized platforms my ID i may have no choice let, what do you think?


https://blog.bitmex.com/deadline-passes-for-bitmex-accelerated-user-verification-programme/

I think it's a matter of time.

Although it must be said Binance is uniquely positioned given its lobbying power in countries with lax regulations (e.g. Malta) that will likely allow it to continue offering services at least to some users without any verification. But it's certain that these restrictions will only get tougher.

It's one of the side effects of institutional adoption and greater maturity of markets - you simply can't have both ways. To attract these institutional players that bring about greater liquidity, the ecosystem must be well regulated and certain counterparty risks are eliminated to the greatest extent possible. There is no getting around this tradeoff, unfortunately.
1371  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Coinbase vs Binance on: December 06, 2020, 12:39:54 AM
Now that Binance has business operations in the US (Binance.us), the competition between the country's biggest crypto exchanges will become fierce like never before. For a long time, Coinbase has been the leader of the crypto market in the US. But with Binance joining the game, Coinbase's position could be threatened in the long term. After all, Binance enjoys greater liquidity and adoption than Coinbase (as far as I know). I'm sure most people will prefer Binance on top of Coinbase because of its attractive fees. The latter's fees (Coinbase) are exorbitantly high, compared to most exchanges out there in the crypto/Blockchain world.

What do you think? Will Binance be able to beat Coinbase in the long term? Or will they co-exist for a long time? Do you think that as competition becomes fierce, Coinbase will be able to reduce fees? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks! Grin

Definitely. Binance is still somewhat of a growth oriented company that is consistently coming up with new designs, concepts and promos.

Coinbase is more of a defensive player right now trying to hang onto its market share in the US where it dominates. I don't see this happening for two main reasons:

1) The reputation of Coinbase has consistently deteriorated over the years from a startup to the big player that doesn't care about its customers. From crappy customer support to constant suspensions of user accounts, there is a lot of fear at the very least for just using Coinbase.
2) The awareness of global alternatives, especially Binance, has advanced at a very quick pace.

Given the fact that Binance offers much better service and innovation, it should only be a matter of time it captures a significant market share from Coinbase. Whether it will topple Coinbase's status altogether is a separate question though.
1372  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Stablecoins get more regulated on: December 06, 2020, 12:22:11 AM
Stablecoin issuers start looking more like regular banks as now US lawmakers require to obtain bank charters. Basically all of them will be under control of the state.
Do you think it a positive move?

https://www.coindesk.com/us-lawmakers-introduce-bill-that-would-require-stablecoin-issuers-to-obtain-bank-charters

And they deserve to be. They are essentially deposit taking institutions that issue out tokens as a receipt of deposit.

The legal loopholes that allowed them to exist without much reserve requirement was particularly dangerous. I remember USDT started announcing that they were no longer 100% backed by fiat (as they wanted to invest into assets that brought them a profit).

Without a centralised system of deposit insurance, a "run" is sure to happen with such loose standards.

Note though that this is entirely different from decentralised cryptos which have no obligations to redeem tokens for a certain underlying asset, which is why the regulations should be entirely different for these two asset classes.
1373  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Missing TXIDs from 3 transfers just made on: December 06, 2020, 12:10:25 AM
Hi,

I just made an ethereum transfer from my Coinjar account about 2 hours ago and it didn’t give me a TXID. It also wasn’t received. I then made a smaller one again of ether to see if that would push it through once again no TXID. So I made a small one of bitcoin no TXID?!! It’s been hours and the moneys still have not been received and I don’t know how to track them down it’s 13 hours until customer support for Coinjar opens in Australia and it was $500 so I really need to know where this is. Can anyone help with another way to track these transactions?

Weird. I've used Coinjar extensively in the past and never had any issues. A few weeks have passed since your complaint, has this been resolved or is it still ongoing?

Definitely keep consulting their support. When I used them they were very responsive to my issues.

One thing to note: Coinjar will allow you to send dust amounts but they will not actually get propagated onto the blockchain, which means that essentially you are wasting your money when you send amounts like 0.00003 BTC. I'm not sure if that's what you meant by "smaller amounts", because if it is, then that could be an explanation. The $500 tx would have definitely gone through either way though.
1374  Economy / Gambling / Re: ✔️ CryptoFairly.com - Fair Impartial Crypto Casino Rankings NO AFFILATE LINKS! on: December 06, 2020, 12:01:04 AM
I noticed this for Roobet:

Quote
Gameplay in USD only

To the best of my knowledge you're actually playing with BTC. The USD figures are only there for your reference, not because your balance actually gets converted to USD whenever you deposit a sum of money. That's an important distinction to make.

I wouldn't say that's necessarily a con. It's simply a display feature without much repercussion.
1375  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How tricky is this? on: December 05, 2020, 09:58:30 AM
                                                                            The near success syndrome

There is this near success syndrome that is associated with compilation or multiple bets. I'm damned sure most bettors who use the accumulated bet strategy must have experienced this a few or lots of times and it usually feels so disappointing and the day begins to feel like it's not one of your best days. The thing is,

"In an accumulated bet, why is it often the last games that goes rugged and you end up loosing what's supposed to be a best bet and was already preparing for a cash out or the next step"

It's always never funny when this happens. What's the trick about it, is it that, bookmarkers just knows and tends to push the game to the last in the series for an accumulated bet option or it's really bad luck, if there is such a thing as bad luck or other reasons. What really is the trick about this scenario.

Nope. It's literally designed that way.

If you think of each betslip as a negative EV event (which is true for the average bettor since the sportsbook obviously has to make money on spreads), accumulating them using a multi/parlay/accumulator bet just magnifies your inherent disadvantages.

Whether the last bet that you were hoping to win loses or not is entirely luck. No point being superstitious about this stuff.

Remember that human brains take tough losses and represent them as more frequent than they actually occur. So if you are especially distraught after you lose the last leg of your multi, then you are likely to think that it happens far more often than it actually does.
1376  Economy / Economics / Re: US Firm Launches Company-Sponsored Bitcoin Retirement Plans on: December 05, 2020, 09:41:50 AM
Another brick in the “institutional money adoption” wall.
American corporates will be able to embed bitcoin in their pension funds for their employees.

US Firm Launches Company-Sponsored Bitcoin Retirement Plans

Quote

DAiM will serve as an adviser and fiduciary while helping companies create a 401(k) plan that allows a maximum allocation of up to 10% in bitcoin (BTC, +0.95%) alongside varying degrees of exposure to traditional assets, according to an announcement Thursday.

Cryptocurrency associated with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA)-compliant plans will be held in New York-regulated Gemini Trust’s cold storage custody.


I see the this news as a true revolution for at least two reasons:

  • this is a sign that bitcoin is now going to be embedded in the product offering by “traditional players”, that decided to cooperate with the enemy before disappearing. Of course this means that the fiscal, legal and compliance framework is almost complete
  • sizes can be huge, corporate funds money has been a driving in traditional markets for years
  • hodling horizon is in the decades horizon. This money are being sucked into cold storage not to be seen again for LONG time on exchanges.


Your last point is probably the most important. The difference between retirement funds and JPMorgan/Paypal adopting is that they are not in the business of speculating (or at least as much as financial service intermediaries). They generally are much more passive and their investment horizons are indeed much, much longer.

Resultantly, what we will see is likely a very large gap between institutional demand for BTC and new supply from minted coins, especially after this halving.

But whether or not more retirement funds in other countries start offering this will largely depend on the regulatory decisions made by international counterparts of the SEC. I think that diversifying into BTC is a must-do considering its inflation-proofing properties as it is entirely decoupled from the fiat regime, but obviously regulators seem to have an issue and think that this is inprudent.
1377  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Best Bitcoin Arbitrage Tool 2020 on: December 05, 2020, 09:30:30 AM
Quote
My advice : do not try with small amount because withdraw fee from exchanges could make no profit for swap.

Trying with big amounts is even more dangerous, especially when arbitrage opportunities usually arise from exchanges such as HitBTC, Yobit, etc. that hold ambiguous regulatory statuses and a history of less than reputable behaviour. You may be putting your capital at risk here even if on paper this trade is guaranteed profit.

And that is basically the flaw of all of these calculators - they don't take into account the fact that most of the times when these arb opportunities arise, it's because of inefficiencies (disabled/delayed withdrawals, for instance) that make prices inaccurate. It doesn't necessarily mean you can take advantage of it without risk.

Add a pricey monthly subscription... I'm not sure about that at all. At least sites like BitEdge push notifs for arbs for no cost.
1378  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Peter helping bitcoin pump? on: December 05, 2020, 09:22:13 AM
Doubt it. Any influence that Schiff has over BTC would have been priced in a long time ago anyway. Him maintaining his past stance on BTC as some sort of con job has become what the market is expecting on a daily basis.

Most precious metals stackers are already aware of bitcoin anyway to the best of my knowledge, and there is a great proportion of that community that is open to the idea of BTC.

Schiff has a history of gold bugging and hyping up PMs for absolutely no reason, advising people to buy regardless of market cycles or conditions. Pretty much everyone knows his personal interest in SchiffGold and the lucrative spreads and commissions he earns from sales anyhow. It's best to ignore this guy, he doesn't have a lot of influence either way and is as hypocritical as ever.
1379  Economy / Gambling / Re: CSGO500.com $17000 Christmas Raffle 🎄 $62500 Scavenger Hunt 🔥 Wheel & Casino on: December 05, 2020, 09:15:13 AM
A rebranding is planned for next year, but we have so much brand awareness and clout with "CSGO500" that it's going to be terribly hard to rebrand without losing a lot.

No doubt.

It's a balancing act for the short and long run. In the short run rebranding is definitely going to take a hit on your player revenue, but in the long run if you continue to offer good services distancing yourself from the CS scene will 100% be beneficial when you are doing business primarily in crypto. It makes a lot of sense to do that as soon as possible (after you accumulate a certain threshold for bankroll, for instance) to build up a name.

But who am I to say anything. You guys seem to have your stuff together.
1380  Economy / Economics / Re: Cryptocurrency is poor men Lower class wall street on: December 05, 2020, 09:08:15 AM
I'd say that this is an inaccurate designation.

We need to firstly distinguish between cryptocurrencies and exchanges. They are two completely different concepts. Cryptocurrencies themselves are merely stores of value and mediums of exchange per se, just as any other currency. It is not, primarily, designed to be a speculative vehicle to generate returns the same way shares are; nor does it carry out the duties of an IB/wealth manager.

Secondly, it is apparent that major institutional players are heading into the crypto scene on a daily basis. So it is far more accurate to say that cryptocurrencies as an investment is more accessible in general - not that it is inferior/of a lower class.
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