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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Tech Layoffs on: February 07, 2024, 09:04:55 PM
Not a day goes by without a tech company announcing major job cuts. Today Paypal and Block (both payment service providers) have announced a total of 3500 job cuts, and recently Salesforce, Microsoft, SAP, Google, Ebay etc. have also done so. According to https://layoffs.fyi, 25,000 documented tech jobs have already been cut this year.

What do you think? Is it just a shrinkage and normalization after the strong build-up of the workforce during Corona or a long-term trend that will accelerate through the use of AI?


To be honest, it's pretty expected from the massive expansion that we saw during COVID. People were hired left and right, Computer Science graduates were getting paid ridiculous sign-on bonuses, and employees were pushing for WFH hard.

The unwinding of the low interest rate environment is what has caused these layoffs for the past 2 years. This year is just a continuation.

I don't anticipate it to be sustained much further though, given that rates are starting to come off again and central banks around the world will probably be more dovish following lower inflation reports. It sucks to be involved in one, that's for sure.
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: I could have won bigger. on: February 07, 2024, 08:55:53 PM
This is a common thing to feel after you hit a bet.

Of course whenever you win it doesn't feel like you bet enough. But you have to realise that there is some probability that the bet would not have hit, and you would have mitigated some losses due to you betting a smaller amount. This is especially true when it comes to parlays which are generally very -EV (as each leg is -EV and it is multiplicative).

Take the winnings and don't feel the need to chase the imaginary losses that you are keeping track of.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Please stop asking for "legal tender status" on: February 06, 2024, 09:51:06 PM
I thought that this debate has ended several years ago now?  Huh

Frankly I could not care less about whether or not bitcoin is legal tender. As you say legal tender status is just a government endorsement, which means very little when it comes to actual adoption. We've seen massive growth in BTC adoption, both as a store of value and medium of transaction, without it having been recognised as legal tender in most advanced nations.

There are plenty of merchants that accept BTC already who don't care either. And you are always free to convert your BTC into fiat in order to spend, if that's what you desire.
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling mistake repeated by the gamblers on: February 06, 2024, 09:38:10 PM
While these are definitely true, they generally make people lose money because they bet more.

Being humble and not greedy are not going to win you money at casino games, as long as the house has a mathematical edge over you. That's the unfortunate reality of it. But you can limit yourself to how much betting you do on a day to day basis to ensure that you are staying within budget.

One of the most important things to understand as a gambler is what things you can control and what things are out of your control.
5  Economy / Gambling / Re: Does anyone find the spate of online casinos a bit uninspired? on: February 06, 2024, 09:15:35 PM
I'm not sure how to feel about it honestly.

I personally think that it's fine. There are bound to be casinos which look a bit like each other due to having the same provider behind their UI design and whatnot, and that is totally okay. It is more cost effective to operate that way for most casinos and as long as they pass on these savings in the form of lower house edge to players, I don't see any issues.

But there are also carbon copy sites of each other that would probably each benefit from some sort of a makeover.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The scam of FAKE fixed matches on: February 05, 2024, 09:51:29 PM
I've actually seen this one plenty of times. Kudos for the write-up.

Just using some logic should hopefully make it clear why this is a scam. Firstly, fixed matches are illegal, and why would anyone openly advertise the fact that they are in on fixed matches? Secondly, if there were indeed a professional match fixer, why would they let anyone else know, as that would diminish their profits?

Sometimes greed gets the best of people and they fall for this. But it is entirely avoidable.
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can you make gambling a profession - a full time job on: February 05, 2024, 09:31:30 PM
I'd like to clarify that this topic is distinguished from businesses or entrepreneurs involved in gambling as businesses, such as casino companies, etc., but with a focus on gamblers. I know there are many people who regard themselves as professionals at playing gambling games, but do you ever think that one can make gambling a full-time job and career because of his or her deep knowledge of the games? Can someone bet with little or no loss because it is one of the most unpredictable games to play?

Gambling to my understanding, is a trial-and-error game with uncertain outcomes, unpredictability, and luck. Therefore, professional gamblers must exhibit a deeper than usual understanding of the games, the statistical probabilities, and a high level of risk management skills.

However, it is critical to realize the risks involved, which include unstable financial circumstances and potential addiction problems. So, pursuing a gambling career should be approached with serious caution, and gamblers ought to be well-informed about the accompanying problems. Furthermore, I believe that having various sources of income and taking calculated risks will be highly beneficial.

But, in a broader sense, can you make gambling a career path, abandoning all other sources of income to focus entirely on it?
If so, why?
If not, please advise!

Yes, definitely. There are two main ways that I've seen people turn gambling into a career.

First is that they become traders at sportsbooks like Bet365. Essentially when you place a bet on Bet365 there are often traders who review your bet and see if they are getting good betting flow. They have less of an opinion on whether or not a team is going to win a particular game but more of a focus on managing their positions so that they don't go bankrupt when a long-shot team wins.

Second is games of skill, such as poker, and advantage play in Blackjack. People can make a reliable living with these games if they are good.
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you pay attention on other people bet and it amount, and does it affect you? on: February 05, 2024, 09:20:27 PM
Yesterday, when I was playing Crash, I have caught myself thinking that I watch on how much people bet, how much they won and lose. First I have felt envy, when I saw one guy bet 200-300 bucks all the time for half and hour and cashed out with 2+ multiplier. Among bets in range of 1 sat to a dollar, he was really standing out. Then I have noticed a guy who was betting a dollar and did not cash out until rocket passes 10x. I was also amazed how a guy bet 1k, and lost it when the rocket banged at 1.00x, then he immediately made another 1k bet and the rocket banged at 1.03x. Then I saw him winning +5k bucks.

That is how the idea of this topic appeared. I watch others gamble, I watch how the bet, I start to think about betting more than usually. Do you have such feeling also? Do you have a feeling that if others make large bets, that you also must bet large, otherwise you would feel like uncomfortable, or feel like a poor among rich, or something of that kind.

Not when it comes to regular games of chance.

No matter how hard you look you are never going to find a strategy that will make you money in the long run, even when others may swear by it and hit a few lucky streaks.

But when it comes to sportsbetting, you might actually benefit from asking for the opinions of others who may be more invested in the sport than you are. Same thing goes with games of skill like poker, or maybe even blackjack to an extent. Good sportsbettors/poker players can be great to learn and emulate from.
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2024 NBA Season on: February 05, 2024, 09:04:13 PM
After the defeat in Philadelphia, Utah Jazz defeated Milwaukee 123-108 at home. Their next game will be at home against Oklahoma, but Oklahoma is in great form and Utah has a tough job. Oklahoma's away record is pretty good.
Boston beat Memphis on its own field by a different score of 131-91.
In their last 8 games, Boston lost to Los Angeles teams at home.
It's like Boston is allergic to Los Angeles teams. It was surprising to me that they lost to both the Clipppers and the in-form Lakers.

It's surprising to me that Boston are still the overwhelming favourites when it comes to the NBA championship market.

On BetFair Boston is still 4.1@4.3 to win the championship which implies >20% probability that they will win the chip. I don't think that that is a fair price. The Clippers price have closed in slightly lately now at about 8.2 but still not enough, especially when the team has been on a tear and ranks first in power ranking for 2 weeks in a row now.

Milwaukee odds have blown out slightly to 8.6@8.8, that looks more fair than Boston imo.
10  Other / Off-topic / Re: Having a regular/steady income is important as a gambler. on: February 05, 2024, 08:53:21 PM
This is definitely true.

I have seen countless people whoa re unemployed pick up the habit of gambling, and this is incredibly damaging to them. First, it gives them something to do during the day, which means that they may no longer be as inclined to look for work. Secondly, it means that financially they are always stuck, as they often pick up debts in order to fund their gambling activities.

As a bare minimum, have some sort of steady income stream before you start gambling. Otherwise you are much more likely to fall into addiction.
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you believe in gambling experts predictions? on: February 04, 2024, 04:51:45 AM
I have seen tipsters that are consistently profitable.

Most experts who claim that they know the game inside out and have certainty in the result of each game is lying to you. Most profitable tipsters that I've come across do not proclaim this, but rather place bets on +EV propositions that over time accumulate to a profit of many betting units.

That said, don't go out there and blindly pay for a tipping service. Make sure that they have a verifiable edge and track record first.
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Viewpoint of a fan gambling on: February 04, 2024, 03:49:28 AM
As a gambler you should always be willing to go against what your fan conviction tells you. Otherwise you will be guaranteed to lose money in the long run, because bookies will always have a pricing edge on you.

When I see that my team is struggling, I would be the first to lay them, because that's my edge - following one particular team closely. It is incredibly unlikely for the team that you are backing to consistently outperform market expectations.

If you are unable to objectively assess how your team is going, then it's probably best to stay out of betting on that team altogether and move onto other games/sports.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Making too many picks reduces chances of winning. on: February 03, 2024, 10:09:13 PM
As gamblers, we love more action, so we tend to make more bets on a regular basis. However, experts say that when we make too many picks regularly, our chances of winning decrease. This is due to the fact that we won't be able to analyze all the games carefully that are in our ticket and won't have the advantage needed to win. So instead, it's recommended that we should value quality over quantity if we want to succeed in sports betting.

Share your opinion regarding this matter.



Edit : I see that some replies are talking about parlay. FYI, this is not about parlay, it's about making many single picks on a regular basis. Please avoid using parlay when sharing your opinion.

I wouldn't say that is the case if you are picking your bets with +EV. In that case, the more bets that you put on, the more you expect to make in the long run.

It is only when each extra bet reduces the marginal quality of the bet that this becomes a problem.

I agree though, I see far too many people fall into this trap when it comes to sportsbetting. They seem to think that they have an edge over the bookmakers when they really don't - and they overbet in -EV propositions and lose out in the long term. I think Warren Buffett once said that if everyone was only allowed to invest in 5 stocks in their lifetime, they would do extremely well. Some degree of discipline is also required in sportsbetting/gambling when you have an edge.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: VPN - Differences between countries where gambling is legal and not on: February 03, 2024, 09:40:41 PM
VPN is something that is popular and widely used, including for gambling. Regardless of privacy issues or access to sites that are prohibited in a country. Regardless of whether a casino's policy allows the use of vpn or not, are there any differences in protection for gamblers when they come from countries where gambling is legal?

Such as protection for gamblers who are cheated by casinos because their games are considered suspicious or because their accounts are blocked unilaterally by the casino. If yes, how do report it? if there isn't then there is no difference between countries that legalize gambling and those that don't


I think there will be differences.

If you were ever asked to be KYC'd then you would be stuffed if you were operating a VPN. Most casinos in that instance would probably withhold funds from you and claim that you lied about your country of residence (even though they should have checked prior to even accepting a deposit from you).

I would strongly recommend not using VPN to gamble at crypto casinos for this reason, unless you are sure that you are guaranteed to not be KYC'd.
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do not gamble with Loan Money~otherwise you will be in danger like me on: February 02, 2024, 11:30:26 AM
Sorry to hear about your situation.

Good on you for trying to share your experiences with the forum so that others can avoid making the same mistakes. It is truly a shame that these things still happen. People should be educated on the pitfalls on gambling, and the very real risks that come with it. Gambling is not a way to become wealthy - it is merely a tool to gain entertainment if you have spare funds.

No matter what you say to yourself to justify it, it is never okay to take out loans to gamble. Unfortunately, I see that all too much even in online casinos, with strangers loaning money to each other. That is enablement that needs to be avoided like the plague, in my honest opinion.

Always, always, gamble responsibly.
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Google Updates policy allowing bitcoin and crypto assets trust to be advertised. on: February 02, 2024, 11:05:44 AM
Pretty interesting how these policy lines shift as soon as there's money to be made, since bitcoin ETFs are approved.

I have come to realise that a lot of these companies make decisions that are reflective of the policy climate at the time, without much regard for the greater purpose of the things that they are advertising/serving to people.

At the end of the day profit margins need to be maintained. But either way, this is a positive development for bitcoin.
17  Economy / Economics / Re: Will the world soon become tired of the US dollar? on: February 02, 2024, 10:57:10 AM
I highly doubt it.

People have been saying that the US dollar will become less of a reserve currency globally for decades now. And its status has simply not changed. And it's not going to until there is a system reset worldwide where all fiat depreciate in value.

In that instance, I don't think that the replacement would be any other fiat currency either, no matter how strong their economy may be. It is almost guaranteed to be a cryptocurrency, and BTC is the most obvious candidate at the moment.
18  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinos not asking for KYC to register and play, but do require it to withdraw on: February 01, 2024, 11:30:52 AM
This is a classic thing that shady businesses do. It is completely illogical, given that if they were required by legislation to get your personal details, they should have done so prior to letting you sign up and deposit. Their whole object from the get go is to get a free option to make you lose money. If you lose, then nothing happens to your account. And if you win, then they will restrict your account, and make you KYC.

They do this with full knowledge that there is very few people that actually trust these online casinos to handle their private info responsibly.

Unfortunately, this is a risk that people have to put up with when playing online, especially at a crypto casino. No matter how reputable a company is, there is always some probability that they pull this.
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When I'm emotional, I LOSS! on: February 01, 2024, 11:09:59 AM
Hey, guys! Are any of you emotional gamblers who often lose because you can't control what you feel? When you lose, do you tend to double your bets or chase your losses, driven by a pride that can't accept defeat? Do you consider this a problem? If so, has anyone here been able to solve this kind of problem themselves, and if yes, how did you do it?

I have this problem, and based on my personal experience, I find that sometimes I get challenged but not too greedy because I don't have a problem quitting when I'm winning. However, when I'm losing, that's where my struggle lies.

That's why I shared it here; I feel that some of you may experience the same challenges, and I'd love to hear your ideas or experiences on how to win this battle so we can enjoy gambling.

Are you gambling with an edge?

It's undeniable that there are people with edges in certain types of gambling. For instance, I have seen people consistently profit off mispricings in the sportsbetting markets, as well as people who are consistently profitable off poker due to their skill.

In other games, however, it doesn't matter whether or not you are emotional. You are bound to lose in the long run. You may be able to win in the short run due to sheer luck, or through promotions that the casino offers, though.
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Pay off DEBT by do Gambling? think again before you loss more on: February 01, 2024, 10:55:57 AM
That is obviously not something that anyone should do.

Gambling by definition is an -EV proposition and you'd be foolish to want to pay off debt using that. As we all know, gambling should be reserved for entertainment purposes only, and you should not bet any more that what you can afford to lose.

Unfortunately, not everyone follows that adage, and I have seen way too many people gamble away money that they desperately need. This is not restricted to house debt - I've seen people do the same on credit card debt. It's a real shame.
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