Bottom calling tactics will work until some macro trend comes by and completely destroys it.

You're assuming that institutions somehow know better than we do, which is actually something that has been consistently disproven. Especially in a market as volatile as the crypto markets, it is simply impossible to predict what regulations will come next and what people in the market feel at this particular moment - there are simply too many variables at play.

Instead of trying to predict the bottom, why not just DCA whenever prices are relatively low and only offload when you absolutely need to? Isn't that much more productive?

Always good to remind yourself this.

I don't expect this bull market to sustain forever, but in the short run with a market with such FOMO like currently there is no guarantees that people are going to act completely rationally.

Which is why I think as a long term holder, the best thing to do is exactly what you've done for the past few years - keep holding. Selling off now is a good strategy if you are a day trader, but if prices keep going up then psychologically you might feel inclined to buy back at a higher price, which is completely counterproductive.

I am buying BTC for the long term usage case as a hedge against fiat collapse, not to take advantage of price swings.

In addition to Codeman there are also a few others like Drew, juicy, etc.

You're completely right. This is misleading in the sense that even if they say that they're showing both losses and wins, inevitably the highlights from their Twitch streams are going to be skewed towards big wins.

The thing is, people actually find their content entertaining. Personally, I get completely ticked off by their over the top reactions, but this question is not black and white. There is a market of consumers who are willing to watch these fake promo videos for entertainment's sake.

Interesting...

I'm curious to see the results. Since bets on draws are so unpopular, this could actually mean that the odds on either team winning could become overpriced whilst the odds on draws are underpriced.

If there was to be a mispricing like this, betting over a large sample could reap a positive EV and lead to long term profits, if the hypothesis holds up. Of course, variance will be there in the short run - but you seem to have that under control with effective bankroll management.

I honestly don't think it's too big of a deal.

They're probably executing a buying program similar to a DCA scheme, whereby they buy a certain amount of coin no matter what the price is in order to smooth out their average total cost on their position.

If they're committed to long term holding, then this is the most logical strategy to adopt.

They're probably nowhere near being the biggest BTC holding entity right now. The bulk of the coin is still concentrated on exchanges as opposed to publicly listed companies or special vehicles belonging to particular funds. But even if they become the top holder, so what?

Their influence on the BTC network is going to be no greater than anyone else's just because they hold thousands of coins. Actually, it'll probably be a positive given that they seem to be accumulating BTC for the long run as opposed to constant trading, which will likely reduce the amount of volatility in the market.

Everyone knew that it was going to be a matter of time before Binance would get cracked down upon.

The 2 BTC/day without KYC limit was simply not sustainable in terms of compliance. And regulators for a while condoned this behaviour since BTC prices were dying down and market volumes weren't that great anyway.

But now they're seeing millions in lost tax revenue given the price of BTC, which is something that they absolutely hate to pass up. It'll be interesting to see CZ's response to this, although I doubt the no-KYC scheme can feasibly continue for any meaningful amount of time.

I doubt that any amount of TA would be able to predict the top with any sort of accuracy.

People are completely irrational especially when it comes to a market that is as speculative in the short run as crypto. They don't look at charts, Bollinger bands, moving averages and decide to stop buying at a particular instant.

When bad news hits, the top can hit without triggering any of the indicators that you mentioned in OP. Likewise, when the market sentiment is extremely bullish, markets could rally quite substantially past any of these triggers.

Just hedge all your bets to an extent if you are a short term speculator with the necessary stop loss, and keep on holding if you're a long term investor. It's as easy as that.

I'm still accumulating through DCA.

If you're trying to take short term profits, then honestly this is a good exit point. I think that anything that gets remotely close to 6 figures is going to be nearing dangerously frothy territory. $60k is not a bad exit price either.

But my goal isn't to take short term profits (and potentially incur a CGT event, for that matter) - I'm still accumulating for the sake of hedging against a imminent fiat collapse as opposed to trying to construct a profitable short term speculative position. Which is why I'm only selling if I absolutely need to, in order to cover living expenses etc.

Coinbase is probably not the best choice given their historically trash customer service.

I think that Binance is a really good alternative, although their services might be affected by the recent CFTC probe.

Frankly, buying BTC with debit/credit cards is almost always a bad idea given that you're going to get rates that are at least 1-2% above spot accounting for all the processing charges, even at large exchanges. If you're buying from P2P platforms then this could go as high as 10%.

Just deposit via bank transfer/cash deposit instead, it's much more cost effective.

As far as I know, most people from the US still use BitMex/Deribit except they hide their identity somehow - through a VPN or otherwise.

It's not the platform that determines whether or not someone from the U.S. can trade - it is entirely up to U.S. legislation.

With institutional investors in the U.S. popping up left and right, I do wonder whether or not they'll start to offer these trading services as well. There will also be institutional demand for these derivative products that can't be filled by circumventing legislation - they'll either move to OTC markets, or more mature platforms.

I don't have a problem with streamers only getting a percentage of what they win from sponsored money. I do have a problem if the funds that they win is completely unwithdrawable.

If that was the case, their reactions are completely faked and they have no vested interest in the funds that they are gambling with. All that does is inflate volume and potentially mislead players, which can certainly qualify as dishonest behaviour.

It is something that needs to more scrutinised in the community imo. There is a fine line between fabrication of bets and running legitimate promos.

Honestly, they should probably diversify into online operations as opposed to overinvesting into Asian physical operations.

The trend is clear. Players, including whales/highrollers, are moving online to faster, more convenient, and more discreet/anonymous options as opposed to going to physical places.

When this crypto generation enters their prime years, this process will continue to accelerate.

This will be a losing bet for whoever buying the casino. The maintenance and admin costs are simply far too large to sustain over the long run - and yes, the Vegas Strip is dying as well location-wise.

The maths is stacked against you whenever you play dice.

I don't know what you expect in the long run if you continuously play a -EV game. Sure, you could win in the short run due to variance in the game, but at the end of the day the mean outcome will catch up to you.

If you're playing for entertainment, then self control is definitely a big factor. But no amount of self control will assist you in the long run - you're never going to be mathematically favoured.

The only person that you would enrich is the channel creator.

Search up how pump and dump schemes work. The TG channel admins buy the coin that they are going to P&D, set an arbitrary target that is way above their actual target, and as soon as people start buying the coin they are going to take profits and get the hell out of there.

Sure, you could possibly make a few bucks here and there if you are lucky, but essentially it would be no different than gambling - except the odds are even more stacked against you.

There used to be a lot of GC scammers on Paxful but I think this is less of an issue now.

I remember I had an ad to sell BTC for AdvCash and I even got a few carders trying to promote themselves through the chat which actually held my coins in escrow in a while, which was a hassle.

In terms of the support, it's honestly not that great, perhaps industry average at best. But they have been running for a long time now, and there are some pretty good spreads (anywhere between 3-10%) that you can take advantage of if you are creating an ad to sell/buy BTC. Just beware that they are moving towards more KYC as well - you wouldn't be able to trade anonymously forever.

This is the worst idea that I've ever heard.

Essentially, you would be taking bitcoin and putting it in the custody of a centralised entity - who then securitizes it as some sort of "gift card"...

If the private key is inscribed on the card itself, then isn't this the same as physical bitcoins that have been around for ages? But if it's not, doesn't this introduce the very risk of fractional reserve banking that we've fought so long to disrupt?

Leave bitcoin transactions on the bitcoin blockchain. It's that simple.

Never have I seen such a PR disaster from any company...

Robinhood literally went from the trading platform for the people to public enemy #1... All in one night.

It is interesting to see GME climbing back up now and whether the reaction from Robinhood and other trading platforms will be the same as the first wave of pumps. I would think that they would at least tone it down a bit, given the fact that they're planning on IPOing in a few months time. Not the best time to create chaos and become the scapegoat behind it all.

Indeed. I think that blockchain itself as a technology will come out on top for sure. China's push for a digital CNY is just the first step in this process.

But question is whether or not it'll be the decentralised forces that win or centralised, and it is really hard to tell right now.

BTC's adoption as a store of value is increasing on the grassroots level which is really promising. But central entities' influence can simply not be ignored either. As Ray Dalio mentioned, it'll be a matter of time before the CNY becomes the global reserve currency. Whether or not BTC is able to topple this fiat paradigm will rely on a few key upcoming years.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

The reality is that spotting investment opportunities are incredibly tough. Yes, bitcoin is a great long term investment but in the short run its pricing simply can't be measured against an intrinsically derived value.

This seems to me somewhat like those videos that say "If you invested $1 bitcoin back in 2009.... You'd be a millionaire by now". Retrospectively everything seems clear. Ask someone to accurately predict what's going to happen in the future and they're going to fail miserably.

I generally find my cash trades from LBC, although that has gotten increasingly difficult with LBC removing GC and in person trading altogether.

Still though, if you scour long enough you'll generally find people that put up ads for bank transfer willing to do a cash trade. But that is getting rarer and rarer.

With Bisq and other alternatives I always find that the spreads are way too high for them to be a meaningful option. You might as well just do a cash deposit trade if you are taking rates that are +5-10% over spot price.

I think it'll be hard to get people to trust your platform when you first start out as people are really sceptical these days. But there is certainly a void to fill in this p2p cash trading area right now, so best of luck.