The one thing that you can control with plinko is variance.

You can pick your potential outcomes in such a way that there are a few low profiting holes (say 1.05x), and the rest being low loss holes (say 0.95x). That should intuitively provide you with less variable outcome compared to your current setup.

But what you cannot control is the Expected Value of your game, no matter how you set up your board. This simply means that you will lose in the long run, even if your variance is low.

Exactly. If your debit/credit card was going to be accepted and is legit, then you can likely get much better rates just by withdrawing your funds in cash.


There is a reason why sellers are willing to sell coins through Simplex for debit/credit cards.

Their criteria is really strict, and if they have the slightest suspicion that they may be dealing with a fraudulent/stolen card, they stop right away. It makes sense - otherwise, how could they possibly compensate for the risk they're taking on?

Simplex and Banxa may look good on paper, but in reality, they probably aren't services you can depend on long term.

You can subscribe to Bitedge's newsletter which has been giving out these arbitrage notifications for a while now.

Although, as soon as these arbitrage opportunities appear, they pretty much disappear within minutes as people rush to take advantage. And when you can take advantage, the limits on bets usually make it not worth your while.

There are some more hidden arbitrage opportunities when it comes to leveraging sportsbook bonuses to get improved odds on certain bets, but these are even rarer. In theory this is a great profit opportunity, but in practice these "flipped odds" almost never come up.

Short term wise, I do expect there to be some positive implications on BTC prices.

After all, Coinbase's IPO does fit in with the prevailing narrative of BTC going institutional - and investment banks are going to absolutely love the layer of legitimacy that one of the biggest Bitcoin exchanges going public brings.

But in the long run, this honestly does not matter. No centralised exchange exerts a large enough influence over BTC to affect fundamentals meaningfully over the long term. Besides, CB's relevance is declining by the day with their terrible customer service.

Don't know how obvious a scam can be.

1.4% daily => 160x yearly compounded. Compare that to Buffet's 20-30% p.a. returns which are considered to be incredibly in investment circles. The admin of the site must be the real sage of Omaha

Seriously, if you still believe in HYIPs (i.e., ponzis) in 2021, you need to grow up. I remember their popularity back earlier last decade when BTC and internet investing were still new concepts, but with the robustness of internet investing now and the wealth of public knowledge, there is really no excuse not to exercise your due diligence.

A great call imo.

Pension funds offer the best time horizon to enable those who hold BTC to yield the best returns, compared to actively managed/leveraged positions in the short run.

Time has shown that passive investing works, especially with BTC. Sure, in the short run there could be a ton of volatility when it comes to the price action that BTC gets on the daily, but over the long run the trajectory is undeniable. People are only going to continue to take notice at BTC as a store of value, and the increasing institutional adoption is only going to drive value up further over the long term.

The only potential concern that I would have if I was an investor would be the method by which the pension fund is holding their position. It must be made sure that they hold their own private keys - as opposed to using a third party custodial service. That would defeat the whole purpose of decentralisation.

There is some truth to this sort of calculation.

I think that a better valuation metric would perhaps be looking at the current market capitalisation of gold and silver - a vast majority of that will eventually translate into demand for BTC as more people realise that BTC is the far superior, more convenient long term store of value.

But this won't help predict short term price movements whatsoever. That is totally arbitrary based on how buyers and sellers feel on the day.

Absolutely.

If you are going into BTC for the long haul there should be no expectations of short term profit. I personally hold BTC as a hedge against a potential fiat collapse in the long run, and could care less whether or not it's currently trading at $1k or $50k.

The key is to value BTC not in fiat terms, but rather in terms of real adoption and fundamentals. At the end of the day, it is designed to be a unit of account that is completely removed from the distorted fiat economy.

Do people realise that national lottery is pretty much state owned?

This is not just some random private gambling corporation giving out money for free. A quarter of National Lottery's revenue is literally legislated to go to the National Lottery Community Fund for the purpose of financing public spending projects.

There shouldn't be an expectation for private entities to give away their revenue for free. And honestly, nor should any credit be given to a public entity for doing exactly what they're supposed to do.

I don't see much of a usage case for NFTs tbh.

There is simply no utility for it. Why in the world would anyone need a NFT to certify that they own a certain in-game item? If the game developer does not honour the legitimacy of the NFT, then there isn't going to be any value associated with it anyway.

In essence, it's something that's marketed as decentralised, but in reality its value is still completely centralised in the hands of the service provider - not something I would personally drop millions of dollars on.

100% agree with this sentiment.

Not just in Korea, but pretty much everywhere else as well.

The NFT craze is simply unsustainable. Altcoin valuations are through the roof. And even the most fundamental (and sane) asset in the cryptosphere, BTC, is arguably entering frothy territory.

There will be a time when this speculative bubble comes crashing down, although it is not entirely certain when that will be. It could well be years given the current sentiment.

This is pretty much free money for the taking, and potentially presents arbitrage opportunities if the odd differences are large enough.

The key though is to ensure that the outcomes are precisely the same (i.e., logically equivalent), and the difference in odds is not accounted for by some discrepancy in probabilities.

I also wonder if there can be an algorithm devised in order to spot out these differences. That would prove to be very profitable indeed.

It's no surprise that this has sparked a rally in markets, but I'm honestly not sure whether it is justified.

The merchants aren't getting paid in crypto at all, which means that it's not necessarily going to encourage adoption at a wide scale. To them, there is simply no exposure to crypto that comes out of this. What is the difference between this initiative and other established payment processors such as Bitpay, then?

I also wonder what Paypal is doing with the coins. Do they hold it themselves for the long run, or do they sell it off straight away on exchanges? The former scenario would be interesting.

Look, I don't think anyone disagrees that the BTC markets are currently very frothy.

But just because a bubble is forming doesn't necessarily imply that it's going to correct any time soon. In fact, I do actually expect the run-up to $100k to happen without too much of a resistance. The market psyche is simply completely unpredictable when FOMO is so rife.

In terms of the 70% correction, I do expect it to happen as an eventuality. I'd say with some confidence that we'll see some sort of major correction before mid next-year.

It's funny seeing all these posts about what could/would have happened if you invested x amount and held it to the present. Even worse are the people who post this and use it as justification for why you should follow their stock tips or whatnot.

The truth is that virtually no one has the foresight to say whether or not BTC prices would go up, down, or sideways even in the long run. A rally this big definitely wasn't even in the public consciousness, let alone a remote probability just 10 years ago.

Hindsight is indeed 20/20. But I do agree with the premise that holding is overall a better policy to adopt than to actively trade, although profits of this magnitude are simply never guaranteed.

Sure, it can go up further.

It's quite typical of bull markets to see altcoins rally at a faster rate compared to BTC. That usually signals that the market valuations for alts are overinflated and likely a correction is coming soon.

But in the long run, I think that the growing adoption of BTC and the doctrine of bitcoin maximalism will win out the competitors. ETH will have its niche, but that won't be the majority of the crypto market.

I think that you should also take a look at betting exchanges. They are able to generally offer more attractive odds on bets.

If we're just considering the centralised bookmakers, then I think your ranking is fairly accurate. Sportsbet is a pretty good site to use, and probably my personal favourite.

However, Cloudbet is something that I would always avoid if you are unwilling to give KYC information. They have an absolutely atrocious track record with holding client withdrawals. You simply don't want to risk it.

Honestly, I would absolutely hate the idea of this. But I also know people who would absolutely love it.

I just feel like this will eat into more of your off-time even though theoretically you shouldn't be disadvantaged from such an arrangement. It's essentially the same story as work-from-home. It supposedly gives you more flexibility and saves travel time, but workers including the GS analysts who came out with the slide deck are just being overworked to death instead.

To each their own I guess, but I would say it's a bit gimmicky and practically it'll just lead to more tasks to be done.

Stop trying to attribute every single price movement to some underlying event.

Sometimes corrections simply happen because of chance. A position might be closed by a whale, which triggers some arbitrary TA signal, leading to an adjustment without any external shock.

The market is overwhelmingly bullish still, and these bearish episodes should be short lived so long as institutional investors continue to pile in from all directions.

I would actually agree.

When CBDC's start to get issued across the world on a sizable scale, it'll be inevitable that BTC and other decentralised currencies get further draconian regulations pushed upon it, if not a complete restriction of access to exchange services.

But that's not mutually exclusive to a long term bull case for BTC - as others have mentioned, the enforceability of any attempted ban is simply nil. Look at India and China for instance. There is still a ton of market activity from these regions that we're seeing today despite bans.