from kncminer website: We would like to thank everyone for their patience over the last few weeks. We can now confirm that the lottery winners have been informed and we are awaiting their consent to publish their names and countries
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ref: http://www.bitcoinx.com/charts/I'm trying to do some forecasting and risk analysis using the "bitcoin network vs. market linear, 30 days" charts and noticed that the "Mining Factor 100" (the USD per 24 hours at 100MHash/s) has dropped from 0.55 on May 21st to around 0.26 as of Jun 17th. That's a drop of around 50% in 1 month ... and, that drop happened with existing ASICs (I'm guessing mostly due to ASICminer, a few avalons, and the BFL jalapenos). At this rate, the "Mining Factor 100" could drop down to at least 0.13 by October. Using those estimates, if KnC, BFL and others deliver by October, each 350GHash (Jupiter) miner, for example, will take, at minimum, well over 5 months to breakeven ... and, that's assuming a lot (i.e., the BTC/USD rates stay about where they are today, no new competitors, no new game-changing technology, no new ASICs added to the market, the difficulty level continues as it has over the last several months, etc.). ... and, in order to earn the same in November 2013 as a Jupiter would earn today, I estimate that you will need to be mining with approximately 20 Jupiters by November. Worse, if KnC can't deliver until November, the breakeven might not happen until well over 2 years later. By March 2014, the Jupiter might be earning around 1 USD per day ... hhhmm. 1 USD/day ? Assuming a constant exchange rate of 100$ per BTC, you're talking about 0.01 BTC per day hence a bitcoin difficulty equals to 17.6 billion by March 2014. Am I missing something obvious ? edit1: just to make it a little bit more clear: to achieve 17.2 billion btc difficulty by the end of March you need a 29.7% constant growth rate every 11 days starting from now. I'm not saying it's impossible I am just trying to understand what OP is thinking. |
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Yep you're right i didn't notice those prev threads. I was just checking knc website and i saw a sort of advertising. At first I misunderstood and thought that was a knc thing's. |
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Thanks for all your hard work. Shipping out "hundreds" of units per day seems very optimistic though. Does that mean they ship out all of batch 1-500 the first day?  Not a clue buddy. Just I presume it means they will aim to ship as many as possible, and have access to the means to scale to such figures already sorted. News from kncminer Cloudhashing.com https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234388.0Oops didn't realize a thread on that matter was create a few mins before https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234388.0 |
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Thanks for all your hard work. Shipping out "hundreds" of units per day seems very optimistic though. Does that mean they ship out all of batch 1-500 the first day? Not a clue buddy. Just I presume it means they will aim to ship as many as possible, and have access to the means to scale to such figures already sorted. News from kncminer Cloudhashing.com https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234388.0 |
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As simple as that https://cloudhashing.comEdit 1: actually kncminer is providing hardware to cloudhashing.com Edit 2: change title |
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Guys, come on, what has zercoin to do with KnCMiner?
There are many threads about it. This one becomes useless if it becomes an endless off-topic chat. For that we already have the Wall Observer thread in the speculation subforums.
yep you're right. sorry for sidetracking |
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Guys, has anyone thought of how Zerocoin is going to affect the value of BTC if it ever materializes? Just a thought, but I can see a lot of the BTC miners / users shifting gears towards Zerocoin for the added anonymity, especially if it continues to utilize SHA256. Moreover, it may be possible to use BTC mining equipment depending on how it is designed.
Any thoughts?
quoting zerocoin.org homepage What is Zerocoin?
Zerocoin is a proposed extension to the Bitcoin payment network that adds anonymity to Bitcoin payments. Just as paper currency once gained its value from being redeemable for gold, zerocoins gain their value from being redeemable for bitcoins...
ant they continue: Zerocoin operates in the Bitcoin network and is implemented as a series of extensions to the existing Bitcoin protocol.
so if I understand properly zerocoin is not an altcoin, right ? |
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Yep I do realize it and don't worry you didn't mislead me :-) I just borrow your summary as a starting point in such a way that all interested people could contribute to achieve a more accurate estimates of total hashrate and hence getting a more precise difficulty estimate. just simple as that. Regarding your offer, as you could understand, I'm more interested in a service that provide hashrate estimates. If you plan to offer such a product lets talk about it  I understand. I simply don't have time to keep track of all the sources of new hashes at the moment. I like your idea of a centralised 'up-to-date list of "future" Thps'. If everyone contributed what they knew, a reasonably accurate consensus might emerge. glad that you like it. I hope to find some time to implement this idea. In the meantime if you want to do it.. please be my guest  |
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edit: just noticed that this calulation assumed to have the jupiter start mining june 5th 2013
those 13464.36166 are the USD you'd get mining from November the 17th 2013 to July 17th 2014 in case of a 15% constant difficulty growth rate and exchange ratio of 1 BTC for 120 USD. |
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So, did you buy anything yet?
Whether i'm confident enough to buy more than one, i'm debating.
it seems so then...  |
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Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin
so you think that we will have 25% growth every 11 days till September. I guess it's time to share a few data points. Two weeks ago a I made i rough estimation of hashrate/difficulty based on data contained in this blog post this http://organofcorti.blogspot.it/2013/05/mine-planning-assistance.html, the relevant part is this one: ASICMiner: 23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted based on this i got a 55mil difficulty by Sep the 15th and 135mil on the 31th of Dec2013. Since the time I did those estimates other players come in to play (e.g. bitfury) and maybe some of the data should be updated (e.g. Avalon chips 20 Tphs seems way to low). I wonder if we can keep an up-to-date list of "future" Thps so that we can try to get a more precise estimate of future difficulty, does it seems feasible? You realise that was just an example, right? I have no idea how accurate it is. I apologise if the post mislead you. As the post mentioned, I'm happy to generate similar estimates based on your best guesses of hashrate deployment and quantity. I'm usually done within 24 hours, sometimes 48 hours. Yep I do realize it and don't worry you didn't mislead me :-) I just borrow your summary as a starting point in such a way that all interested people could contribute to achieve a more accurate estimates of total hashrate and hence getting a more precise difficulty estimate. just simple as that. Regarding your offer, as you could understand, I'm more interested in a service that provide hashrate estimates. If you plan to offer such a product lets talk about it as a side note I really do like the bitcoin mining pool and network analysis you share in your blog. extremely useful. |
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Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin
so you think that we will have 25% growth every 11 days till September. I guess it's time to share a few data points. Two weeks ago a I made i rough estimation of hashrate/difficulty based on data contained in this blog post this http://organofcorti.blogspot.it/2013/05/mine-planning-assistance.html, the relevant part is this one: ASICMiner: 23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted based on this i got a 55mil difficulty by Sep the 15th and 135mil on the 31th of Dec2013. Since the time I did those estimates other players come in to play (e.g. bitfury) and maybe some of the data should be updated (e.g. Avalon chips 20 Tphs seems way to low). I wonder if we can keep an up-to-date list of "future" Thps so that we can try to get a more precise estimate of future difficulty, does it seems feasible? |
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I vote for express delivery with ghost rider ROTFL |
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Bro as I already said I really do appreciate your work, and I'm more than impressed by what I'm reading especially when you describe Marcus' way of working Till now I found this two info the most informative among all:
[cut]
.... In the interim as the final ASIC design is already being bid over by the chip manufactures to tender the job by September.
The chip manufacturer I believe is chosen today. ...
And when I read this:
Yes the chip is going from FPGA to ASIC in production immediately, After the first prototype is made they are out the door with very little margin for error. Balls are swinging low.
a shiver run down my spine |
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I apologize but this time I was replying to the guy just earlier.. EDIT: is there a site that shows how much the difficulty rose every 11 days and has a history? Sorry then I didn't notice OP edit his post asking for difficulty data source |
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Bitcoindifficulty.com Blockchain.info
sorry bro I know I should mind my own business but why are you posting the same url twice in a few minutes? I can assure you that who is following this thread is likely doing the same with the KnC openday thread, no? |
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i compiled a short list of what would happen if:
miners would be delivered end of Setember and the difficulty will continue to rise 25% every 11 days (re-target time)
good work thanks :-) Obviously I hope that the difficulty will not maintain the current growth rate, wishful thinking probably. In any case, if we have our rigs in time we will draw a good profit notwithstanding the growth steepness |
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