His model also predicted the average price where bitcoin should be at given time and as you can see we are above that level.
Remember that he predicted the stock to flow level before the 2021 bull run and at that time, he said that bitcoin should reach at least $50k and hold it as floor, when the s2f from the previous cycle was $5k and we did go above 50k, so he was right about that. What he could not predict was the fact that there will be FTX bankruptcy and this crashed the price and caused widespread panic.

You probably know that when we were at 20k last year not many people believed that we'd go back to S2F floor so soon, but we did, so I would not underestimate it.

Isn't it the same with art? Let's say you buy a framed photo of something. The seller could make a copy. You pay $1000 for it and the next day he makes another 50 copies. Unless it's written in a contract that he can't make copies, he can.
It's the same with other collectibles. People buy signatures of other people for money, but we all know they can make more of these.

IMO NFTs are mostly worthless, but if buying that monkey or penguin makes you feel better, special, like you're a member of an elite club, you should do it. Some NFT's are such entries and allow you to get member only content.

You literally say it yourself that it's bad if the family can't access your wealth after your death, but then you say that they don't know about your investment. This is what actually doesn't make sense, not the fact that bitcoin works the way bitcoin works. Then you proceed to ask us if it should stay that way or maybe you should tell someone... Are you kidding me?

The short answer is yes, you should tell the person you want to inherit bitcoin after your death. It's really that simple! For instance, I have a daughter and when she's old enough to understand bitcoin she'll get all the information needed to access it. It's really up to you if you tell people or not, but my advice is that you should tell at least one person.

My goal is to keep taking some profit from the top during bull markets and stack bitcoin in bear markets.

I'll give you an example.
In every bull market when the price breaks the last ATH I start selling a bit and buying all the things that I had plans for in the previous years. For instance, in the 2021 bull market I bought myself a car and some electronics like a new computer. When I have all the things I need and the price is still going up I will get a bit of cash to have some money for potential investment in the bear market and that's what I did in 2021. All of that selling amounted to a small part of my holdings.
In a bull market I start buying bitcoin, first with the profit from my bull market sales and then from my monthly income and that's what I did in 2022 and 2023.

If the price goes to crazy numbers like a million dollars, I'll still do the same.

All of these things have as much value as people believe they have.

Something comes to my mind. Do you remember when youtube girls were selling stuff to their fanboys? It was their bath water, pieces of clothing, one even sold her farts in a jar and people were paying for that shit. It was worth something to them. Does it mean these things were valuable? To most of us they were shit but they were paying money for dirty underwear of some chick that doesn't even care about them.

Value is subjective and I think a picture of a monkey is worth 0, but some people think it's $100k...

India is playing both sides. They've been buying arms from Russia for decades and according to some sources spent 60 billion dollars doing so. Now they have a contract with the US for engine production so that most likely comes with a verbal agreement that they will not send weapons to Russia when the US is supplying Ukraine.

India doesn't act like it's against Russia or the US, but it wants to get the best deals from both sides.
Russia wanted to produce helicopters in India but that deal was cancelled most likely because of the engine deal with the US.
Chances of India going to war right now are very low, they just want to make money. It's the same fear mongering that people who say that Russia will attack NATO countries are doing.

Really? If you play with someone else's money you still have to give it back. If that's your idea of fun, you will never have fun like that because I promise you nobody will come to you with a pile of money and say -here mate, play with it. If you lose it there's no consequences. On top of it you'd like to benefit from it? So you'd like him to tell you that here's his money, if you lose it's his loss, but if you win you both share the win You're such a dreamer if you believe that this will ever happen.

You don't have fun when you lose, you have fun when you play and losing is just a price to pay.

This is to be expected before halving because ETFs made us enter the bull phase much faster and now people are confused.
Every previous bull run was the same - you had a slow uptrend towards the halving, then a correction right before or right after, followed by a large impulse candle that goes to the old ATH, then a correction and final big push to a new ATH.
This time we had all of this happen before the halving and to me this is very bullish since this means that we had a small bull run and will get another bigger one after the halving. The cycle is not yet complete.

I don't care if it dips a bit, I've been buying in the last bear run sub 20k and I know we're not going back there. 30k or 80k, who cares if you're in profit?

It's very difficult to distinguish real economic growth from a faked one, but eventually the truth like oil comes to the surface. A great example of this is China where they were faking growth by building new apartments that nobody wanted to live in, building fake skyscrapers with thin walls made of styrofoam. You can print money and induce growth that you don't really need but it's all a lie.

Economy should be built on the free market with real needs of the people being answered by supply. If you create fake demand or too much supply, everything will eventually collapse.

The fact that he addresses someone as small as crypto traders, when crypto is just an ant compared to the elephant of the stock market and other investment branches makes me think otherwise.
The government has made it difficult for crypto investors to make any money by calling it a ponzi scheme. Now they want a piece of the profit? How's that fair?



Do you know how he wants to plug that loopholes? It's by making you report all trades and purchases and assign all your addresses to your ID, so that they can track you. In other words, they want to stop that few people who don't pay taxes by punishing the whole industry.

How am I getting special privilege? Isn't bitcoin already taxed in the US? People are reporting their profits every year, yet it's still unfair in the eyes of the Biden Administration?


That's because we don't need a tax on mining. There should be a tax on profit, which we already have, so that miners have to report their gains when they sell their newly mined bitcoin. The way they are attacking mining is they're trying to additionally tax miners on electricity because democrats don't like that this industry is growing fast and undermining the need for CBDC.
Shouldn't the rates be negotiated on the seller-buyer level, they way they've been for the last 10 years? Why do they need government in all that?

Because CBDC is government's answer to crypto. A centralized coin that can be made the way USD is and where every user is known to various government agencies.



You want to be introduced to CBDC, be my guest, but keep me out of your wet dreams.
Want to jump off a bridge? I won't stop you.
By turning that into a digital currency under government's control, so that it's exactly the same currency that goes from point to point faster, the way you can send money with apple pay and all those other second layers.


I didn't say any of this.


Which was proven to be a lie. The whole report they based that upon was disproved in Congress. This is a great proof they used that to attack bitcoin without getting opinions and analysis from both sides.



I haven't said that it went up from 0. Again, the period that mattered was 2017-18 where it went 20x from 1k to 20k USD. That's far from 0.

And you know how Biden could have helped that happen? By providing a safer marketplace for mainstream investors. Bitcoin didn't break one trillion because a bunch of hackers thought it was cool, it did so because millions of Americans can buy it using a broker they know they can trust.

This did not happen thanks to Biden. This happened because the SEC lost in court.
Get your facts straight. Biden did not make the SEC approve ETFs!


It was Gensler's job to do so and he got his ass handed to him twice, in court and in Congress.

What comes to mind is that you can regulate things into the ground.

Yes I've done something like that. The craziest thing I've done was when I went to an underground street fighting ring and bet some money there.

It was completely safe, a bit outside the law, but not something run by gangs or anything. A lot of people there were football fans, but there were also normal, rather rich looking guys. A lot of blood, a lot of good fights, nobody got seriously hurt, all fighters managed to walk out of there that night, although some needed help. You were able to bet money on the spot before every fight and cash out after each fight. I won a little, 2 bets won, one lost, came out with something like $50 in profit which was very little, but I went there to watch the thing rather than bet on it. Betting was just to get myself busy during breaks.

Somebody was recently watching Old Boy?

The better question is what will you do during that 10 years. Will you be alone? 10 years of being alone without any outside communication and nobody to talk to is more than enough to go insane, like the main character in Cast Away.

I'd be focused on staying in shape and not giving up so that when it's eventually over I can take my revenge. If there was no way of knowing time and how long I have left before the end of the sentence, I'd probably go crazy within a year or two.

Let's say that I theoretically survive and come out, I'd probably try to know where my family is and then try to find whoever did that to me. If this was the government, I'd probably become a hardened criminal out of hate and resentment because fuck them.

I've always seen buying altcoins and stocks of cryto companies like exchanges and mining farms as adding another layer onto your bitcoin investment. By doing so you're really buying bitcoin, just with another multiplier on top of it that will lose value if the underlying asset (bitcoin) loses value, but can also lose value by itself, for instance if someone happens to the person behind it.
Let's say you have Coinbase or Microstrategy stock and the CEO gets abducted, or arrested, or is killed in an accident, the stock will plummet. Why would you need that layer of risk on top of your bitcoin?
What if bitcoin crashes? These stocks will also crash, so you don't have any immunity from bitcoin dumps, like you would have if you owned real estate or gold.

Not surprised at all. People always wanted nice things and the Internet only made them more envious and greedy because now they can show off things they can't afford and other people get angry thinking social media is for real.

We're in a death spiral of spending that works like this:
Someone knows he can't afford a new car, so he leases one. Puts it all over his social media to show that he's doing well financially. All his friends, especially those who are doing a bit worse, think they're doing much much worse, because he was supposed to be making x thousand a year and bought a car worth more than twice his yearly wage.
They can't sleep at night, their wives make them feel miserable by talking about that car, they finally decide to get a loan and buy a new car that they don't really need, but want to look like they're successful. They don't want to be the poorest working man in the group.

People will keep spending and they will keep buying things they don't need. I've done that myself. I knew it's a waste of money but I did it anyway to feel how it is to own this or that. Life is short, you can't be saving up until you're 60. Technically you can, but you'll have a lot of regrets in the end.

For women it's about freedom of choice. They think if someone tells them not to do it they try to limit their natural rights, mainly because in the past women would drink a tea and dispose of the problem.
This is a very hard topic because we either live in an authoritarian or libertarian society and IMO most countries are more authoritarian, meaning that the government restricts your freedoms because it thinks it knows better.

So, if I have a dog and someone enters my property and gets killed by that dog, chances are they'll take away my dog and take me to court over that. If unarmed burglars enter my home and I kill them, I'll probably go to jail. If I refuse to take my child to school, they will try to make me do it. It's possible they'll enter my property to take my child and if I protect myself they'll lock me up. This means that I've already lost my basic rights and live in an authoritarian society. Therefore, why is it so difficult for women to accept that? The government can lock you up in quarantine because they think you've contracted some virus, they can take your children away, but it's a big deal when they refuse to abort your fetus? I don't get it.

I don't think there's any risk here and no threat to bitcoin from ETFs.

Ultimately we can't stop someone from buying. If ETFs want to buy bitcoin and people want to buy ETF shares, the market is working as intended.
Even if they buy a lot of bitcoin the only concern I might have is what happens if they go bankrupt or lose it? People's lives will be destroyed and they could easily choose self-custody and have the same profit with much more safety.

ETFs pump price, so I can't say no to that. They also popularize bitcoin in the media. Would you buy time on national TV to advertise bitcoin? I guess not, but ETFs do. They not only talk good about their funds but also about the underlying asset.

That's right. Satoshi won the lottery here. I bet he had some other bitcoin than the ones we all know about and if alive isn't poor or troubled by the existence of the genesis block coins.

Why did he won the lottery? Because successful entrepreneurs are always public people. They run companies, issue stocks, invent things, but Satoshi was anonymous and despite global success of his invention remained this way.

He had a one in a million chance and won money and success without losing freedom. Why would we want to destroy that? Why would he?

I don't know what his life savings was, so maybe he had only $100k in there, or whatever, but I bet he could afford to lose it. I just don't see how he'd land in a cardboard box after losing the money.
It's probably that he still has a job, a home, and losing this would only mean he won't get a better home, or a better car in the next few years.

Still, incredible balls on this guy. I would be to scared to do it.

I don't use social media at all so I've never been close to being addicted. I don't have facebook, twitter, instagram or anything else. The only thing I use is youtube, but there's a lot of nice content there, like podcasts and channels that tell honest news. Since I avoid mainstream media, this is the place I take my daily news from. I'm not even going to start about some very good channels about bitcoin that you can find on youtube.

As for managing your time, I find it really hard now that I have to take care of my daughter, but the time you spend with your children is never wasted, even if you feel tired afterwards.
What matters is to do things that satisfy you. You can have the best paying job and hate it, so don't be greedy, don't overwork yourself and spend time with your family.

Really? Tell that to people who are professionally involved in gambling.
Tell that to pro poker or bridge players. These games are much more than simple gambling and you really have to be good to win in the long run. You can get lucky for a while, but consistency matters in these games.

It's a very simple advice that I agree with. If gambling influences your other activities and in a way takes over your life you should stop, but it's similar to any other destructive behavior. Even sports can be destructive if you come back in pain and risk a permanent injury. Everything is good in moderation.