Yes, from two angles:

1. Geopolitically China will likely become even more dominant, while the US situation deteriorates daily. I don't expect China to overtake the US any time soon in terms of military, but in terms of social stability and economic prosperity China is better positioned.

2. Novel concepts such as MMT are being actively deployed by central banks and governments around the world to combat the recessions that have associated themselves with this "Great Lockdown". We could see a complete shift in paradigm when it comes to economic policy coming out of this crisis.

How is this still trading at $0.9 (implicit odds of >1.1)? Is payout of 1 USD guaranteed by FTX or is there some implicit risk that artificially depresses the prices of these tokens?

Wouldn't this be a very simple arbitrage opportunity if you play both sides of the book?

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Regarding the subject set out by the OP, I think that it is fair enough that a lot of books are still waiting for official certification. But as each day passes and no progress is being made in any court, it just makes it increasingly seem like an attempt to stall progress and hold onto user funds for zero reason.

I actually had a similar idea to this but never had the time to carry on with a project - good on you for doing this.

I do think though that you probably want to make it a bit clearer to the users how the entire exchange process is done. I've been fishing around for answers on your site with no avail, and your youtube video (at least the English version), is also down at the moment.

Also, a percentage fee may discourage larger whales to use your services. Maybe add a cap to the transaction fee such that after a certain threshold, the fee becomes flat.

I'm fairly sure that it is monetary policy across the world generally use this inflation target to anchor expectations. This has nothing to do with fiscal policy.


The theory is that a sustained low level of inflation allows for consumption decisions to be pushed forward, maximising economic output. Very rarely does this actually happen though. Right now a lot of countries around the world are fighting deflationary pressures.


It could. But as I mentioned, this is deemed to sacrifice short term output.


Below target inflation is still inflation. Deflation is strictly when inflation rate is negative.


It depends on your country's statistical methods. But generally you'll see a basket of goods that represent the typical consumer's expenditures. Note that this is headline inflation - a lot of countries use underlying inflation for policy formulation because it gets rid of the more volatile classes (e.g. electricity).


It depends on weighting. If these goods are weighted properly I don't see how they give a "false low" inflation.


Because inflation does not only depend on money supply. Aggregate demand plays arguably the biggest role. If people are getting money but aren't spending it in the economy, it makes sense that prices of goods don't necessarily expand even though the money supply has.

This means a lot for bitcoin as a transaction processor but not really much for BTC as an investment.

I suspect that a lot of these people who are looking to cash out to BTC are simply doing so for anonymity and privacy later. They could and probably are going to cash it out on the OTC/P2P markets as soon as they get the funds. Even the investors are probably only in the market for the short term to "gamble" on market movements.

So don't expect for the poker industry to be a huge long term source of demand for BTC. If people are not using cashouts for long term investment or actual adoption, it doesn't really matter.

Wouldn't be surprised.

There is already a lot of FOMO and markets have been rallying for months now. I don't think that this is sustainable. The correction could even come before the ATH to flush out the weak hands.

Long term prospects for BTC are bright as ever, but when you have mainstream media covering stories like Citi's leaked predictions of a $300k BTC, you know that likely people are no longer thinking rationally within the market. And that's when these adjustments hit most often.

It might not necessarily collapse due to government debt, because in reality central banks are able to infinitely finance governments even if they proclaim themselves to be independent entities.

It might not even collapse due to inflation, since that is tied to not only money supply but also variables such as consumer sentiment and aggregate demand.

What is certain though is that a reset will be imminent. Perhaps it'll be political, conflict, who knows. No one knows when the current fiat order will prevail until. And until a collapse does happen, I don't think that BTC is necessarily going to be an "alternative" or a "replacement" to fiat. It'll stay as a store of value that appeals to a niche.

Good for you. And this is a growing trend in countries with inefficient job markets and/or a low universal wage.

Especially during the COVID pandemic, it doesn't quite make sense for people who have recently just lost their jobs to slave away for measly dollars finding new employment where they are underemployed when they can find much better opportunities online (given they have skills).

Be flexible and be ready to upskill. I think that is the mantra in this modern job environment.

It's inevitable. JPMorgan, Paypal, and those who all condemned BTC in the past as some sort of underworld currency have all now completely turned around on their previous rhetoric over the past few years.

Whether or not BTC will replace fiat is up for debate, but I echo the sentiments of BlackRock precisely. I would not be surprised whatsoever if a lot of the precious metal bugs eventually turn to BTC when they realise that the principles underlying the two assets are essentially the same - both have a hard limit and both have their currency supply decentralised away from government intervention, and both are long term store of values.

This sector is going to be a primary driver of growth in the cryptocurrency scene at large, alongside institutional adoption for sure.

I think with the current level of individual FOMO and institutional interest alone, BTC is pretty much guaranteed to finally breach $20k. I would be extremely surprised if a new all time high does NOT get set during this bull run imo.

However, don't expect swings anywhere near what we saw in the past. The market has matured substantially and the increased size of the market mean that flash crashes and pumps will both become much more unlikely.

I also doubt that the predictions of a 6-digit BTC will come true at least during the current bull market. The grassroot adoption is not there yet.

It's inevitable, but I don't think that they will adopt a structure that is even remotely similar to decentralised cryptocurrencies.

Ultimately the government and the central bank's aim is to retain a greater degree of control over money supply, and to potentially implement more creative ways of managing the cash market through principles of MMT.

Perhaps blockchain technology will be used, but there will likely be a much greater emphasis on the centralised power of government to alter/change transactions. So not necessarily immutable I'd say.

I think that what is different isn't actually bitcoin itself, but rather the wider economic environment that we find ourselves in.

We can split these into two main factors:

1. COVID has seen a great deal of QE around the globe and that is likely to spark more hawkish investors to seek somewhere to park their funds due to their belief of currency debasement. Bitcoin is the obvious safe-haven asset as gold continues to decline in popularity.

2. Institutional investors continue to flood the BTC market. We've seen this with even bigger name players than 2017, with Blackrock, Paypal etc.

Though, I think that it is likely BTC will not see percentage gains anywhere near the levels of 2017 simply because of the size of the market. The good thing is that market volatility will decrease substantially.

Not necessarily any "new" news. We've known for a while now that it would only be a matter of time before institutional investors jump on the wagon.

These institutional injections into the bitcoin scene are obviously great for bitcoin in the short run, but if the distribution of coins is too concentrated then it could definitely undermine the equity of the markets in the long term. Though, with BTC already pretty much mined up, it is not apparent that Paypal doing this at this late stage will cause any tangible harm.

It's really interesting to see all these firms completely do a 180 turn on BTC every time a bull market swings around. It just shows the disconnect between mainstream media portrayal, which is easily swayed by activity, and the real fundamentals underlying BTC which has not changed for a long time now.

I really like the layout of your platform. And with polling once again off during this election I think that prediction markets will only increase in their significance as a truer reflection of event odds, so you are really on the money with the idea.

Just wondering though, what exactly distinguishes you from competitors such as Fairlay precisely?

Is it that your primary business is still providing a somewhat social, fun way of predicting with playmoney? Because I feel like it'll be difficult to compete with Fairlay which essentially offers precisely the same service with very low fees and an established presence and regular turnover.

The intuitiveness of the UI is not even debatable. That goes 100% to Stake.

I don't, however, see a mass exodus of Nitrogen whales exiting.

There are still plenty of insane multis that hit on a daily basis paying hundreds of thousands of dollars on that site. I just think that they appeal to completely different players - Stake moreso to traditional provably fair games, and Nitrogen to sportsbettors. They are both sites with great reputations and neither are going anywhere.

I think that some regulated online casinos are obliged to offer self-exclusion programs where you can shut down your account forever upon request. Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any programs that precisely match what you are describing here.

It would honestly be quite futile given the availability of other casinos even if you hit the so called "stop-loss" at one particular casino and get automatically excluded. If you are truly a troubled gambler, you would simply turn to another platform to continue playing.

The best strategy is to just treat gambling as a form of entertainment. It's cliche, but it's true.

Unfortunately, most people still don't do this. I'm guilty of it too.

Is it at all possible to create a script that runs in the background as a provably fair checker for every bet automatically? Perhaps a Chrome extension would have a wider reach and help more people verify their bets than a site where you'd have to manually copy over your seeds.

It might sound paranoid but I think it's worth it to protect ourselves. Who knows if a casino has gone rogue at any point.

Great work OP. I was just wondering whether or not you'd be doing this for other sites too?

I think it would be interesting to build a portfolio of investments across a bunch of dice sites, as opposed to concentrating on one in particular. That would mimic a more realistic portfolio for most people imo due to diversified risks.

But damn, these returns are not shabby at all. Over 20% p.a. can legit surpass credit card debt in some countries and then some, and that's discounting any BTC hikes.

I'd say that all of the scenarios you mentioned are very unlikely to have major influences over BTC pricing.

The truth is that BTC has evolved to a point where it is entirely independent from the traditional fiat economy. Regulatory changes and pressures will no doubt affect bitcoin pricing one way or another, but I think that it is truly overblown by the media the extent of this impact.

The market is also mature enough at this point to distinguish between ponzi schemes run by fraudsters and bitcoin itself, which is merely exploited by these people.

I'd honestly attribute the next bear market to just a normal market cycle. It happens every once every four years and even if there isn't real substance to it, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy given that enough people believe it - which a lot of people do, given the historical performance.

I somewhat disagree.

It all depends on whether or not DEXs will evolve to a point to somehow support cross platform transactions. Trading ERC20 tokens on the ETH network on a DEX is easy, but when it comes to trading ETH for BTC or any cryptocurrency with fiat, it'll be incredibly difficult.

Even USDT and other representative tokens probably wouldn't help much, since they are not "the real deal".

This is another reason why I believe that it'll be probable P2P and DEX will continue to coexist as very sizable alternatives to centralised exchanges, but will probably never replace them outright.