Looks like they just need some public toilets. Of course San Fran is poor like India so you can understand why they can t afford to. |
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Hairy Bitcoin Price Forecast for the month of August 2019
Boring, dull, slow, and for the most part, a cliche and lifeless adventure. Brief periods of terror.
Rated PG-13: Parents Strongly Cautioned – Some material may be inappropriate for children under 13.
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And yeah you want to enjoy the good things while you're young, not when you are a washed up hulk at 50. :-)
Yeah young and poor is ok. Rich and old is ok. Old and poor, not so much. |
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What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.
I agree. This bull trap might run all the way to $300k. A lot of bitcoin bulls might get caught and be forced to sell part of their stack well above $100k. |
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Hash rate follows price.
Any attempt to chart hash rate to predict price is self defeating.
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Guess what happens when the gold price spikes - there is a flood of new supply. As I have been repeatedly saying over the past 5 years, there are a ton of gold mines on care and maintenance waiting for this exact moment. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/gamechanger-price-spike-powers-new-gold-rush-20190729-p52bw9Gamechanger': Price spike powers new gold rushPeter Ker
From Orange in New South Wales to Bendigo in Victoria and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, the gold sector is forecast to pull a record $22 billion worth of yellow metal out of the ground in fiscal 2020.
''These old mines may have shut down when the gold price was $300 for example, it is now above $2000, they would have bypassed a lot of gold in those underground mines because it would have been uneconomic at the time,'' Olsen says.
As a store of value and subject of speculation, the forces driving gold prices are opaque, but it is safe to say the recent rally has been sparked by a deteriorating US economy and geopolitical concerns about the US relationship with Iran, North Korea and China.
Rising gold prices have buoyed miners in all nations, but Australian miners have received an extra boost in the form of a weaker local currency, which has ensured their Australian-denominated costs have become a smaller proportion of the US dollars they receive for their gold.
Monetary easing from central banks has seen investors turn to gold.
The US dollar's role in setting global gold prices means Australian-denominated gold prices are strong when the greenback is strong against the Australian dollar.
New York based VanEck Securities is the world's largest gold equity manager, and the firm's portfolio manager Joe Foster said an interest rate cut in the US this week could be followed by a recession if history is any guide.
He says that would be a recipe for even higher gold prices.
''If you look historically, after the first rate cut in 2008 we went into a recession three months later. When they cut rates in 2000 we went into a recession two months later, so we could very well see economic weakness over the next six to 12 months, maybe even a recession,'' he tells The Australian Financial Review.
''If we go into a downturn, that increases the risk to the financial system that would probably drive gold much higher.
''We are near the end of a cycle, this is the longest expansion on record, it is the longest stock bull market on record and these things don't last forever.''
While most pundits expect a US rate cut will be good for US-denominated gold prices, Shaw and Partners analyst Peter O'Connor notes that the impact on Australian-denominated gold prices is less clear.
The Australian dollar has dropped in recent days below the 70c threshold.
He points out that gold prices may rise in US dollar terms in response to a rate cut, but may fall in Australian dollar terms if the US currency weakens significantly.
''The outlook depends not just on the fed cut but on the commentary, and probably the minutes released next month,'' he said.
''The short answer is we are getting closer to an Australian-denominated gold price peak, but not a US-denominated gold price peak.''
The situation could change again if, as expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia makes further interest rate cuts later this year, with further cuts likely to support Australian-denominated gold prices.
Gold-rush towns always get a boost when the local mine resumes production, but in Stawell's case the impact on the local economy will be unusually strong and refreshingly traceable, with the mine set to host a multimillion dollar particle physics laboratory.
Scientists studying ''dark matter'' require a laboratory free of background radiation, and deep underground is one of the few suitable places for such research.
Plans to build such a laboratory in a chamber of the Stawell mine were dashed when the mine closed in 2016, denying the laboratory of the ventilation and other support systems required to safely work underground.
But the revival of the mine has enabled a revival of the laboratory project, with state and federal governments contributing $10 million to build the scientists a chamber about 1000 metres down the mine.
''That is an unusual spin-off from an old gold mine opening up again,'' said local mayor Kevin Erwin.
''That side of it will be a real game changer for Stawell. We will have international professors in town and it will raise the bar for local kids in terms of aspirations for what their future careers can be.
"We are on the cusp of a wave and it is just starting to roll.
''We have got a bit of a shortage in housing at the moment so we are just trying to address that very quickly, bucking the trend of a lot of rural communities.
''We have quite a few hundred jobs coming online in the next few years and we need families and we need housing."
Olsen says Arete is looking for other opportunities to invest in old mines that might have been unloved by their former owners.
Hugh Morgan's private equity fund has made its first acquisition in Victorian gold.
Some of those opportunities are in Victoria, where interest in gold mining has rebounded since bonanza gold grades were found in the "Swan Zone" beneath the then marginal Fosterville mine near Bendigo in 2015.
Foster travelled from New York to see Fosterville with his own eyes in 2015, and says the Swan Zone is the best gold discovery he has seen anywhere in the world in the past two decades.
Fosterville, which is owned by Kirkland Lake Gold, has since become one of Australia's most lucrative gold mines, and its success has spawned bullish talk of a broader ''renaissance'' of the Victorian gold sector.
''There is certainly a lot more interest since Fosterville went down below 600 metres and basically broke into Aladdin's Cave,'' said Olsen.
Statistics suggest interest in Victorian gold has improved, but the state remains a very small player in the Australian gold industry.
Spending on exploration in Victoria has quadrupled over the past four years, but at $24.5 million in the March quarter, the state had less than 5 per cent of the national exploration spend for the quarter, according to figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Kirkland Lake has listed on the ASX.
For comparison, $353 million was spent on exploration in WA in the March quarter, while NSW ($61.3 million) and Queensland ($75.2 million) also attracted much higher rates of spending.
The Victorian government this year announced it would charge a royalty on gold production for the first time, but the government expects the royalty will generate just $56 million over a four year period.
Victoria's gold sector has boomed in the past four years.
That pales in comparison to the $1.16 billion the WA government expects to raise from gold royalties over the same period.
Compared to the gold rushes of the 1850s, which made Melbourne one of the world's wealthiest cities, Ballarat gold mine general manager Stephen Jeffers says it's a stretch to call the past few years a genuine renaissance.
"It is a long bow,'' he said.
''We have noticed that since Fosterville really hit their straps, explorers are coming around and having a good sniff, for sure, but unless something comes up, they will get bored real quick."
Fosterville's success has triggered a 70 per cent increase in the number of exploration licences granted in the state between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2018, but the "renaissance" has to date delivered no new "greenfield" mines in Victoria.
''The low hanging fruit in the 'renaissance' will be the reopening of old mines that have existing infrastructure and have a fairly low social impact, if you like, and there are a number of those,'' said Olsen.
''We are looking at those, we are active and keen to invest if the environment allows it.
"But having said that, those mines that are closed down require a huge investment with dewatering and refurbishing, getting all the access and all the power re-established, it can take years and you still need permission to do it.
''There is nothing free about gold mining I can tell you, it has got to be one of the most capital intensive, high-risk industries there is.''
Foster bets on gold discoveries for a living, and he was not exactly optimistic that Fosterville's success will be repeated elsewhere in Victoria.
"It is always possible, but those mines in that area have been around a long time, they have had a lot of work and a lot of drilling, so I would not bet on others discovering another Swan Zone,'' he said.
''They are so few and far between, the probability of discovering another one is low at Fosterville, and it is even lower on other properties where the geology is not quite as well known." |
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My leveraged DCA that I started a month ago has flipped into the green.
Which is distressing if the trend holds because my purchase tomorrow will start to push the average entry point up!
I’ve never been so sad to have Bitcoin gains.
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Precious. HM thinks I'm Craig. Jiggy thinks I'm a government agent.
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What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.
Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration. Or the difficulty was low No. The nonces in each won block indicate that the vast majority of mining power in the first days was definitely coordinated. How is that inconsistent with low difficulty on a single laptop? Quite evidently, it is not. I must have misunderstood what you were trying to convey. It seemed as if you were arguing against the post to which you responded. Specifically therein: "the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system"". Sorry for the confusion. Ok thank you. I try to make posts crisp and clear. JJG has taught me something. However brevity can sometimes introduce its own misunderstandings. |
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Good evening at $10.009  I've seen higher figures today. Daily still looking good, continuing yesterdays trend. I'll wait one more green daily candle with short wick to feel safe. Don’t try to feel safe man. That’s a trap. Just go with the flow. It’s all going in the right direction. |
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The SEC will start to mine some btc soon...  The SEC Set To Begin Running Bitcoin and Ethereum Nodes
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is looking for quotes from contractors who will run the Ethereum and Bitcoin nodes for them.
What is the motivation behind the move?
Moving forward, the contractors will have to make additions of new blockchains as the SEC requires. The SEC has, however, not given any valid reason as to why it wants to operate its own nodes. The only explanation the agency has provided is stating that the objective is to support monitoring risk, compliance enhancement as well as to inform SEC policymaking on digital assets.
The SEC will ramp up its analytics to aid its blockchain complaisance investigations and monitoring. In essence, they have stated that the subscription will collect blockchain data from the various hosted nodes instead of offering the data through blockchain explorers.https://cryptoiq.co/the-sec-set-to-begin-running-bitcoin-and-ethereum-nodes/Anyone here want to charge the SEC $100k a month to run a node for them? |
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Incidentally, it is working splendidly so far.
Yeah jbreher, splendidly is far from a couple of recent reorg occasions. With no known negative consequences. eta: Other than the loss of the coinbase tx revenues for the initial orphaned miners. Right, why would it have any negative consequences since nobody uses it, dah? Way to completely miss the point. Again. All the txs (again, save for the coinbase tx of each orphaned block) were ultimately included onchain. Nevermind the obvious blatant lie that "nobody uses it". Is this what substitutes for honest discourse in your pathological mind? Thanks Craig for sorting that out. We don't know what we would do without you. |
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What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.
Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration. Or the difficulty was low No. The nonces in each won block indicate that the vast majority of mining power in the first days was definitely coordinated. How is that inconsistent with low difficulty on a single laptop? Even if multiple machines, which I doubt, I don’t know how you can say with confidence that sequential nonces aren’t just crappy code shared by all machines. To state the bleeding obvious, if all clients count their nonces starting at “1”, and then “1 + 1” etc, your blockchain will have a series of nonces counting in order. None of this pool conspiracy theory makes any sense. |
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What’s the reverse of FUD? PAMP? I refuse to buy into this Chinese PAMP. Edit: however I do buy Fed PAMP. Go the Fed! |
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I’d happily buy Jiggy a beer.
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Incidentally, it is working splendidly so far.
Yeah jbreher, splendidly is far from a couple of recent reorg occasions. With no known negative consequences. eta: Other than the loss of the coinbase tx revenues for the initial orphaned miners. Right, why would it have any negative consequences since nobody uses it, dah?  I’m pleasantly surprised that Craig is able to avoid clusterfucks on BSV. Well unless you consider Craig having to reorg BSV to be a clusterfuck in its own right. |
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What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.
Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration. Or the difficulty was low |
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Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.
To me it looks like this:
Bitcoin price: participants
Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.
Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).
Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt
Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments
Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.
Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)
Above 300k: Central banks and governments.
I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).
TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.
Can I suggest you don’t think of Bitcoin in $ terms but rather in time terms. What Bitcoin can achieve in two, five, 10, 20, 40 or 60 years (if you have kids) is likely very different to what we can imagine now. Sovereign money is not a passing fad. And people keep losing their keys and leaving dust behind. |
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