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Hi OP, maybe you'll post a few freebies (regarding the usd/btc market) so we can see your performance?
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generating many keys in a deterministic way from a single backed-up seed. Doesn't this make it possible for anyone with multiple public keys generated from the same seed to do some sort of correlation attack and discover the seed?
Aside from the OP's deterministic minimums based on seeds, I would like to hope the current rand seed is based on cumulative data, the time, mouse and keyboard, threads, etc. I can't find the source but there are two headers files of interest: src/key.h and src/cryptopp/cryptlib.h the former making reference to EC_KEY_generate_key which might be related to the OpenSSL implementation: http://linux.die.net/man/3/ecdsa |
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c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps) Does 'the pot' include ALL bets or only loosing bets? I believe if the pot is ALL bets (typically parimutuel) then late winners can LOOSE (shown below) and if late bids are high enough, early winners can loose. A 1 btc LOOSING bid, 10 days in advance B 9 btc WINNING bid, 10 days in advance (90% risk/confidence) C 10 btc WINNING bid, 1 day in advance Payout if pot=TOTAL (winning bids + loosing bids) A = 0 btc B = 20*90/100 = 18 btc (100% gain) C = 20*10/100 = 2 btc (80% loss) I believe it is only fair to return the winning wagers and then calculate the profits amongst the winners. Payout if pot=LOOSERS (loosing bids only) A = 0 btc B = 9+1*90/100 = 9.9 btc (10% gain) C = 10+1*10/100 = 10.1 btc (1% gain) |
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The possibility of network 'shutdown' or isolation has been discussed last year. The discussion tends to focus on reconnecting the block chain (and people double spending on each side of the 'digital curtains'). http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=661.0Suppose I do not spend my bit coins, but keep them on a USB stick buried under the house. The pre-isolation transactional history should be safe as long as the original block chain is in effect, even if there are major post-isolation-and-block-chain-merging transactional issues regarding competing block chains. What seems likely is that if the isolation is long enough, the client/nodes will be re-programmed to accept only the 'local' block chain even if a longer block chain joins the network. If you believe both WWIII will occur and bitcoins will survive, then you might be able to double or triple your money by hoarding long! |
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French Revolution...Its important to note how once the inflationary spiral has started, very few people realize the real cause of prices rising, the monetary inflation, and keep demanding more monetary inflation as to pay for the higher prices, leading to more distortions in the economy and making the problem even worse, until the final collapse.
Fiat Money Inflation in France by Andrew Dickson White http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/6949 |
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Perhaps it would be better to just say 1) the effects of inflation and deflation are controversial in macroeconomics...
Only because previous to 1971 there has been no historical precedent whereby every government on the planet actively increase the global money supply irrespective of production. We have no empirical evidence to say what will happen. But only a deaf, blind, and dumb man would not be a bit concerned. |
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One of the advantages of the deterministic wallet is that they can be backed up offline and any copy is as good as any other no matter how old. One of the reasons we want to do this is to protect our bitcoins for posterity, or at least so we can sleep well at night.
So it seems just as important to me to be able to secure a wallet 100% offline. I should be able to send a transaction without ever exposing my wallet to the network. It should be possible to create a 'send file'. In other words, I should be able to use my offline deterministic wallet to sign a transaction, then separately (and perhaps physically) take the transaction to another machine that is on the network and execute the transaction without the wallet.
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: As for the $10B number, I pulled that
: out of thin air. It's hard to say how big
: the bitcoin economy will be.
Why not consider the aspects of tthe economic where bitcoin adds most value... global black market, online payment, wire transfers, funding revolutions...
I believe its well in the trillions as bitcoins will be convertible to "the next new thing".
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Netrin, with your technique the salt is known: it is effectively the username (plus a fancy hashing algo that you want to keep secret). It is trivial to reverse engineer the hashing algo of a closed source app. People have done this for Oracle, Windows NTLM auth, etc. All closed source and all have been reversed engineered and documented.
Thanks, but I respectfully deny credit for this security through obscurity technique. I stated at best this saves 10 bytes but was not robust. |
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gentalmens bet (no cash/no winnings) of 03:00 gmt 6/26
I'll take it, and get some sleep in the mean time....  |
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Floating around every corner of the internet. Seriously. You're on it. No, I'm not screwing with you.
Perhaps we should use different *usernames* on all sites, but keep the same password, eh? 48479,chihlidog,chihli.dog@gmail.com,$1$vR.07MxS$YjNyWYE7WAW4n4LqqU5Ag. |
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I've been bashing my brains trying to come up with a simple and distributed prediction market. I have not yet succeeded. In the meantime, I came up with a betting model that is time sensitive, which I think could show predictive insight over time. You can't sell your position, but later wagers cost more depending on the weight of similar previous wagers. I'd love to hear your comments. The general rules are here: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.htmlAnd an example (Mt. Gox opens trade) event: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=22298.0 |
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Greeeeeed.
How about we make a wager on something more important, like-- that Mt. Gox won't ever have a security breach. Minimum wager-- everything in your Mt. Gox wallet.
Taking bets first opening!
All Mt. Gox participants are making that wager everyday. In fact, we're making a similar wager with our local wallets it seems. |
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There seems to be great anticipation for trading to begin on Mt. Gox. So rather than wait for coding to completion, I thought I'd offer a Futures Bet (which I'll process manually at closing time). I'll be around here and on irc (typically otc). ======================= Event: When will Mt. Gox start trading?GeneralRules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.htmlEventAddress: 1B2oHq8dCwLegguskVJEyuXSsz68HRJi9gOpeningTime: 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC ("June 24 at 8pm in New York", "25 June 02:00 in the morning in Paris" and "08:00 in Beijing") ClosingTime: 2011-07-05 00:00 UTC ("July 4 at 8pm in New York", "5 July 02:00 in the morning in Paris", "08:00 in Beijing"). All bets posted one full hour before the hour in which Mt. Gox begins trading will be retro-actively invalid (funds returned to sender minus TransactionFee). ExpirationTime: same as ClosingTime (expect at least 24 hours to post calculations, and receive payouts). BetPosition: represents the hour after 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC in which Mt. Gox. begins trading (and sustains trading for at least 60 minutes). EventRules and Comments: What follows are additional rules, exceptions, and comments to the General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.htmlThe BetPosition is indicated with the fourth, fifth, and sixth decimal place of the Wager. For example, a bet of 1.000001 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.000001 predicting trading commencing 2011-06-25 between 01:00 and 01:59:59.99 UTC. A bet of 1.000100 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.0001 on position 100, in other words a prediction that trading will commence 4 days, and 4 hours later (2011-06-29 04:00-04:59:59.99 UTC). All participants should read the General Rules. Payouts are weighted, based upon the valid block timestamp in which the wager was sent! Bets before the OpeningTime 25 June have 100% risk and thus 0% penalty. All bets after the ClosingTime will produce no profit. Bets made in three days (28 June) have about a 50% penalty (penalties are part of the pool, penalty is roughly (hour/240)^2). Use a local wallet to send bets, because payouts will be returned to the same address (do not use an e-wallet). The rules are open to discussion, but will not likely change unless there are severe calculation errors or clarification requirements. General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html======================= |
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Looking at the US or Eurozone GDP / money supply estimates as a baseline, one will find that the currency supply (M0) is roughly 15-20% of the GDP. This implies for a bitcoin economy of $10B, that the total of all bitcoins would be valued around $2B. If there are at most 21M bitcoins, that implies a bitcoin could be worth about $95 each.
Where do you get your numbers from? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=BASELooks like M0 is almost 3 trillion USD. How do you go from M0, GDP, to the size of bitcoin economy? What's the connection, where's the math? |
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Why would a government impose as legal tender a currency that it can not print and therefore can not profit from it?
I happen to live in a quasi-independent nation with a tiny population that has requested that the colonial power print its own currency. The imperial nation agreed to print a special colonial-version that could not be redeemed outside of the colony. The offer was declined. So, I don't think the possibility of using or backing bitcoin is too far out. |
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Am I missing something? https://www.instawallet.org/w/tnwghY1sfQip3ia64mR2Jj Sure it's HTTPS which encrypts the payload, but anyone can get access to the URL. Then, if I understand the implementation, the attacker (neighbor) can drain the entire account, no? |
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Yes. I think the Economist got it right - including a technical explanation I can give to my mother.
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