Quite possibly.....The last run to 30 started just under ten when the publicity hit. We're not really in a much different place now other then that bitcoin has been tested since then, and we have more exchanges.....
The previous declining plateau before rally was March-June, roughly $1 to $10 (overspike to $30, 10-30x) Previous to that, December-February, $0.3 to $1 (3x). And previously, just after Mt Gox opened, late 2010, $0.06 to $0.3 (50x). While three similar patterns does not make a rule, I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September.  |
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0.0005 bitcoins or 0.0005 bitcents?
Come to think of it. Is there even a standardized naming system for "bitcoin" "bitcents" "microbitcoin (uBTC)"
SI units in orders of 10^n3. Giga, Mega, Kilo, milli, micro, nano, pico... As for naming, your guess is as good as any μBTC, microbitcoin, microbit, microbtc. |
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Gold is going much, much higher..... the Chinese are going to be diving into it big time in the near term.
Gold 1 July: 1500 today: 1590 = 6% Silver 1 July: 34 today: 40 = 18% Gold is overpriced and will be corrected. It's peaking now, you just can't eyeball it. |
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Since I started watching at 2:00, the sun has only gone down. It looks like it is going all the way down. What will the earth do without the sun? /sarcasm
You really need to use a longer history to learn anything about the price of bitcoins. The price is still more than twice as high as when I started watching just a couple months ago.
Since December the Sun plunged into Darkness. Oh no! We'll never see $0.4 again!!!   EDIT: Pardon the sarcasm, I didn't realize this was the newbie section. For your first lesson, the sun set three times and has always risen again.  |
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Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.
Real = Final stable final value? Xephan meet exponential growth. Logarithmic graph please meet Xephan.  |
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Thanks Mittlyle for some meaty critique. I'll take a stab... The author seems oblivious of consumption function (and improved models with similar content), which was first introduced by Keynes in his The General Theory at 1936.
And Keynes was likewise oblivious to economists he preceded. Such as the life cycle hypothesis or Friedman's permanent income hypothesis stating that the choices made by consumers regarding their consumption patterns are determined not by current income but by their longer-term income expectations. Transitory, short-term changes in income have little effect on consumer spending behavior. Consumption trends follow income, whether up or down. Keynes rightly argues that the rich consume less personally than the poor. But the rich invest. Hazlitts argues that the investor is better equipped to evaluate efficient use of his own savings, both risk and gains, whereas the government through taxation takes from properly risk/gain calibrated investment to necessarily less efficient projects. You can argue that some projects (law-enforcement, infrastructure...) have a benefit to all of society for which no single investor would see gains that compensate his risk. I don't recall Hazlitt denying this (I believe an earlier post referred to it as 'back peddling') but argued against subverting private investment to fund private debtors who could not otherwise receive favorable loans - ie subsidizing bad investment at the loss of good investment. |
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I could invision a service whereby I generate key pairs and send them off to be minted.
I generate key pairs on my computer. I then symmetrically encrypt the private key and send them to the print-minting service along with identifying information, perhaps even my photo. The print-mint prints unique bill-notes (with my smiling mug in the center) and sends them back to me. I can then write the passphrase on the bill-notes (either in advance or upon purchase/distribution).
Recipients must trust me or transfer the bitcoins from the bill-note immediately. Recipients must trust the print-mint not to duplicate bill-notes and that counterfeiting is impractical, or again just transfer bitcoins to themselves upon receipt. The print-mint can verify that I have not duplicated the keys (at least with respect to the block chain and the print-mints own public key records).
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I'll try to find some time to make the shiny coin with the B from Edgeworth, gives a better view, but thrust me, the B he made is perfect.  Looking forward to seeing that. (you weren't sold on any of the #B glyphs?) Only problem with the B with double slashes, it looks splendid as a logo, but for typographic use it has one line to much, that's why you also see the dollar symbol with 2 lines when it is a big logo but with one line in fonts: $. And if you lose one line in the double lined B you'll get: ฿.
Not entirely (unless you constrain yourself to Unicode). Edgeworth's first vertical would share the left side of B and the second slash does not cross through the loops of the B. |
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Indeed. I think both distros have the same goal. I don't know the difference very well but what I like about tails is the daemon which immediately wipes the memory as soon as you eject the cd or start the shut down sequence. But that could be ported to liberté too I guess Liberte does that as well. Liberte is smaller, faster, and much more locked down than TAILS. Tails will let you run external applications (such as bitcoin) without reconfiguring the ISO. Liberte will not. You must pre-generate the Liberte image and it will be verified on boot. After booting into the GUI, root/sudo is not possible. I believe both encrypt the swap space. Try it. Liberte is very restrictive, but quite secure, to the point of being impractical for anything but communication. |
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I love people who look at linear graph and call it a bubble because they see an elbow in the curve.
Hey Adam, the only linear graph on this page is an XKCD comic. And as I understand it, a large fraction of marriages do pop! |
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That analogy is schlock. The great difference is the week of frozen trading (Jun 19-25) whereby no data is comparable, it just bears a passing resemblance to thin trading. Frankly the time series analysis seems to change substantially every few days and so is useless. (No offense to OP, I understand what you are doing. Laypersons beware.)
You mean, doubters beware. I almost lost my shirt doubting the correlation today. |
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I fight a loosing battle against the loose usage of 'irony' Oh, the irony. STREPSIADES: No Zeus? Then who makes it rain? Answer me that. SOCRATES: Why, the Clouds, of course. What’s more, the proof is incontrovertible. For instance, have you ever yet seen rain when you didn’t see a cloud? But if your hypothesis were correct, Zeus could drizzle from an empty sky while the clouds were on vacation. STREPSIADES: By Apollo, you’re right. A pretty proof. And to think I always used to believe the rain was just Zeus pissing through a sieve. |
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I am careful to distinguish between 'monetary xflation' and 'price xflation'. I have not confused terms; You have. I'm sure you've read a lot of Austrian, but perhaps you should familiarize yourself with the mainstream (aka the century in which you live), if only to know thy enemy, if you will:
Yes, the mainstream economists misuse the term. Given that they were unable to predict the largest economic disaster since the Great Depression, I tend not to lend credence to their opinions and misguided definitions. Not to mention the manipulation of this terminology is insidious, it has confused the entire world as to the reasons for the increasing price of milk. It has gotten to a point where people believe "inflation" is just a natural phenomenon in a market economy, instead of an intentional and deliberate policy by the central bank. Like it or not, fractional reserve banking exists and must be described. The Fed created M0 inflation to counter M1, M2 deflation. Bad money deflates, people default or pay off principal, contracting the debt based money supply. Many of those same people/institutions who once had debt now have newly printed dollars. Is that inflation or deflation? The more 'real' (food, energy, metal, M0) inflated massively in the last three years. The less 'real' (M2, M3, deposits) deflated. The discrepancy in definitions is not an innocent evolution of language, it is an intentional perversion of meaning which obscures an extremely important phenomenon. I refuse to mislead other people and follow suit by adopting and perpetuating molested vernacular.
Please read the article I personally retrieved for you. It's short. There's certainly been a perversion of the language to a point, but you have to be realistic. The vast majority are confused by archaic usage. Even those 'in the know' can not be expected 'to know' without context unless you preach to the choir. Perhaps you can use the monetary- and price- terms as I have, which would have been just as well understood in Jefferson's day as today. I have a pet peeve against the loose usage of 'irony' - the contradiction of the context - not just contradiction nor unfortunate circumstances. Or the use of 'tea' to refer to any herbal infusion. The use of 'liberal' to mean economic conservative and 'conservative' to mean liberal. But what's the point? Whether by manipulation, improvement, or laziness, language changes. |
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Bitcoins has seen 100%, 50%, and now 30% annual monetary inflation. Dollars have seen 300% M0 monetary inflation with the quantitative easing in 2008-2009. Currently this month, bitcoins are price inflating (currency devaluation) rapidly against the dollar (10% for the past week), but over the years, bitcoin has deflated 80% monthly against the dollar on average (doubled every ~50 days).
Bitcoin has never deflated - it is always inflating at a diminishing rate. Its price has fallen. Price changes =/= inflation or deflation. Don't confuse a symptom of inflation (rising prices) with inflation itself (increase in the money supply). Bernanke does this all the time and it drives me crazy. He says, "the rising costs of food and energy are driving inflation higher." Nonsense. HE is driving inflation higher, and as a result food and energy costs are rising. It's like 1984 word-isms. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Debt is stimulus  I am careful to distinguish between 'monetary xflation' and 'price xflation'. I have not confused terms; You have. I'm sure you've read a lot of Austrian, but perhaps you should familiarize yourself with the mainstream (aka the century in which you live), if only to know thy enemy, if you will: On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation by Michael F. Bryan http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/1997/1015.pdf |
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Bitcoin is not deflationary, regardless. It's asymptotically inflationary. It's only deflationary if people lose/misplace wallet files faster than the new currency is minted. In fact, BTC is much more inflationary that USD right now.
Bitcoins has seen 100%, 50%, and now 30% annual monetary inflation. Dollars have seen 300% M0 monetary inflation with the quantitative easing in 2008-2009. Currently this month, bitcoins are price inflating (currency devaluation) rapidly against the dollar (10% for the past week), but over the years, bitcoin has deflated 80% monthly against the dollar on average (doubled every ~50 days). |
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Repriced at 3.25 now that bitcoins are below 14. I'll continue to offer a 10% discount if you test drive my new escrow service when paying. See my sig for details.
Hi kgo, I'd like to take a combo OpenPGP card and reader off your hands, and willing to use an escrow service with the owner. |
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...August will be key in proving whether bitcoin will get beyond the perceived 'bubble' symmetry in the earlier run-up. Personally, I think it will.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
It is easy enough to collect the daily data from BitcoinCharts. Just click on a chart, set the Time Period to '1 day', set the check box for Custom Time and then you can just scan through each day to collect open, high, low, close, and volume... Which is how I came up with this completely unscientific wishful (helps me sleep at night) chart based on (check out the 's' and 'e' parameters) http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&c=1&t=S&s=2010-10-25&e=2011-01-15 : |
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why conflate the two issues?
Because to non-technical users, "privacy" is a single feature, not a series of separate technical issues. Neither feature impacts nor increases the urgent need for the other and neither could claim to be the final "privacy" feature. Could you also compile a 32-bit Linux binary?
I've failed to compile wxWidgets 2.9.2 and couldn't compile the patch with wxWidgets 2.8 on 32-bit Ubuntu 11.04  |
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