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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 11:04:38 PM
Did I help the push to free up the screen?
162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 11:00:36 PM
Also MAGA is based on the idea that they can do anything on their own. And now they are sabotaging their own concept by inflating the dollar.
This must end in some kind of breakdown.

I didn't really answer the isolationism point, apologies.  I agree.

There is no doubt governments have a role in massive events, and that the public actually wants them to 'do something'.

In 2008/2009 the G20 was formed by Gordon Brown to actually act in a coordinated way and deal decisively with what was a serious credit crunch. It worked.  The lack of of a similar consensus and coordination this time around however, is plain and could get risky.  

In a world crisis it is risky to go it alone, or just blame someone else.  This attitude seems to be hard-written into the current zeitgeist.  The virus will be beaten, but the economic hit /recession will not be beaten easily if there is a credit crunch. This is about debt not being honoured and borrowing not being available because of a failing of trust.

If even a small country's banks get in trouble, and those banks can't be bailed out with loans, because no one will lend to them for fear of default - there will be trouble.   This is when a 'go it alone;' strategy will collapse; as with countries defaulting, then so will global demand.  This and its subsequent 'domino effect' could be a fire storm that will cause far more pain than the virus.  

The virus is just the straw. The camel's back is the world economy.

Edited. I often do.
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 10:30:15 PM
This is the time to do a *massive* upgrade to US infrastructure. Seriously, there should be a billion men rebuilding those railroad tracks to last 100 years.
That is a very good idea; a decent modern railway for commuting and freight would really be good for the USA.  

Plus it would be an investment, not just giving money away, but using money for a long-term benefit, creating work and building a new infrastructure asset.

Far too smart an idea for anyone to actually do it, though.

one small problem

real, actual, like...existing on the material plane...steel

costs real money

you can't print steel



well, if you already have steel you can sinter small parts, but you know what I mean

Print the money to buy the steel instead of airdropping it on banks and (presumably) airlines etc. who will only buy their own stocks..?


China has the steel.

I rather doubt they are going to be taking our confetti much longer.

Success requires foresight. When a gov tries to defend strategies that may have worked out well in historic times at all cost, it's a programmed fail.
Foresight is what lacks in politics of the Trump administration, one-dimensional thinking (opposed to networked thinking) is prevailing, but it won't work in economies that follow complex rules and rely on trust a lot. It's a big mistake to assume that the US is dependent on no other nation, but every other nation is dependent on the US. This is surreal, it's an illusion. Big question is, what to do if the american people wake up from their biggie dream and have to face reality of an economy that was blown up with their help.

EDIT: (saw it after posting)

I see what you meant now.  Fair point, you got me there.  The Chinese are also probably the only lot that could actually build one on time and for a reasonable budget, too.  But again, they'd want paying. With real money.  

Well it was an idea that would have worked once - maybe if they'd done it in 2008, instead of fluffing the markets to keep the horn section playing.

Also MAGA is based on the idea that they can do anything on their own. And now they are sabotaging their own concept by inflating the dollar.
This must end in some kind of breakdown.

They didn't fix it in 2008, they printed money to save the system and papered over the cracks.  They think 'more of the same' despite never having really gone back to 'normal' interest rates, is.... Fine.  

"It worked before and anyway - it's obviously a new paradigm, we'll just print even more and it'll be ok. All that shit saying that printing money will end in tears no longer applies"

Well, it works for a while, yes.  Until it doesn't and the whole house of cards tumbles down.  

Satoshi was no fool; remember what it says in the genesis block.  
164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 09:10:49 PM
This is the time to do a *massive* upgrade to US infrastructure. Seriously, there should be a billion men rebuilding those railroad tracks to last 100 years.
That is a very good idea; a decent modern railway for commuting and freight would really be good for the USA.  

Plus it would be an investment, not just giving money away, but using money for a long-term benefit, creating work and building a new infrastructure asset.

Far too smart an idea for anyone to actually do it, though.

one small problem

real, actual, like...existing on the material plane...steel

costs real money

you can't print steel



well, if you already have steel you can sinter small parts, but you know what I mean

Print the money to buy the steel instead of airdropping it on banks and (presumably) airlines etc. who will only buy their own stocks..?


China has the steel.

I rather doubt they are going to be taking our confetti much longer.

I see what you meant now.  Fair point, you got me there.  The Chinese are also probably the only lot that could actually build one on time and for a reasonable budget, too.  But again, they'd want paying. With real money.  

Well it was an idea that would have worked once - maybe if they'd done it in 2008, instead of fluffing the markets to keep the horn section playing.
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 08:18:08 PM
This is the time to do a *massive* upgrade to US infrastructure. Seriously, there should be a billion men rebuilding those railroad tracks to last 100 years.
That is a very good idea; a decent modern railway for commuting and freight would really be good for the USA. 

Plus it would be an investment, not just giving money away, but using money for a long-term benefit, creating work and building a new infrastructure asset.

Far too smart an idea for anyone to actually do it, though.

one small problem

real, actual, like...existing on the material plane...steel

costs real money

you can't print steel



well, if you already have steel you can sinter small parts, but you know what I mean

Print the money to buy the steel instead of airdropping it on banks and (presumably) airlines etc. who will only buy their own stocks..?
166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 07:50:50 PM
This is the time to do a *massive* upgrade to US infrastructure. Seriously, there should be a billion men rebuilding those railroad tracks to last 100 years.
That is a very good idea; a decent modern railway for commuting and freight would really be good for the USA. 

Plus it would be an investment, not just giving money away, but using money for a long-term benefit, creating work and building a new infrastructure asset.

Far too smart an idea for anyone to actually do it, though.
167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2020, 11:54:29 AM
is the guy from the video a WO member?

https://youtu.be/wA4KS546rZo

So it's the Dutch who have all the TP, then?  Damn.
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 09:20:09 PM
What happened to V8? Was he older than 90? #corona  Shocked
Not sure if he is over 90 but he is a senior I assume. Isn't he around?

FWIW he is not that 'old', whatever 'senior' means.

I understand he's just taking a break to sort out some RL stuff.  We all have to from time to time, right?
169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 11:37:43 PM
Honestly, it's a 4 year cycle, right.

2013 - 2017 - 2021.

Expecting moon in 2020 was always just hopium.   

This is fine.
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 11:34:34 PM
Played with a few lines at TradingView. What if we're stuck in this range till mid-2021? Angry



Bullish.
171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 11:24:45 PM
Bitcoin was never easy.

This has always been the price we pay, how we really earn what we will receive.

When they say: 'But you were just lucky getting in early - you didn't do anything to actually earn it'

You smile because you know they're wrong and they have no idea how tough it was to HODL; how it was a roller coaster of emotions for years - a real grind that took strength and belief, that only eventually paid off.

We will have earned every fucking penny.  And it was never, and will never be, easy. Or any idiot could do it.
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 11:11:51 PM

Great name for a website for conspiracy theory drivel.

It teaches us that:  'Fake medical epidemics are unleashed by the powers that be...'

OK, the coverage might be over the top, the lethality is not known, sure...OK, jury's out - but to call this 'fake' and a false flag operation?

I didn't know there was such a thing as a pandemic-denier conspiracy theorist. I guess I just learned there is a new sort of paranoia to add to the sheer noise of nonsense to fill up Twitter with.  And calling it 'Chinese Coronavirus' is straight off Fox 'news'.  Or, as I think of it 'Be a doublethink drone' TV. 

But you may still be able to save yourself, if you stop and think.

Yes, the media may be overreacting (loving it even) but it is er... based on a real thing, sorry. You are just helping the people that write this shit to earn their crust with the clicks they generate by you disseminating it.  You are their product.

Go ahead, it's your right. Only this is unsubstantiated crap. I am afraid it is: Factually. Plain. Wrong.




173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 10:09:09 AM
Asian markets dipped harshly overnight, but the UK FTSE has actually gone up today.

NYC will probably follow, so the 'rout' is probably calming on the FIAT markets (for now). I am not making predictions, but I will be extremely surprised if we go anywhere near sub $4k again now.   
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 10:06:08 AM
Have skin in the game at least?

Too late now. I'll have my skin by starting DCA'ing again. It will be a lot smaller skin though. Can't take 2btc loss.

That drop to 4000 blew my mind last night.

It is fine really. I don't feel so bad now. The only thing pains me the most I'll probably never get to the rich levels I was dreaming for all these years. I'll just be another low-mid earner.

My net worth is down to 125k now. It was 160k few months ago. I'll find other investments. I'll invest in bitcoin too but definitely not that much. Maybe I'll try real estate. Not sure.

FWIW, I lost more than that in Gox back in the day, and compared to less than a month ago, I am 'down' way more than 125K.

But glad you have found some perspective and good luck.
175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 09:48:47 AM
1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k. Cheesy
Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

You got me.

I never mentioned the amount though:d

@Mindrust.  There aren't many of even the hardest hodlers here who haven't sold to see it go up, or bought to see it dive.  Most have made mistakes that have cost them a % of their 'potential' if not actual stash.

The only ones who ended up really bitter were those who sold it ALL.

I doubt you want my advice, but in my opinion this awful plunge is a freak occurrence.   The likelihood of BTC being up 20%, or 25% from where it is now in a relatively short space of time is extremely high.

So if you buy back in and swallow a 25% (or whatever figure) loss now, you will just be at the same position in terms of value in fiat.

If you don't, you may never do it.  You will be one of those forever waiting for a dip that will not happen and regret it always if Bitcoin moons again.

I bought some BTC last summer around $10K, but I will only realise that loss if I sell.  So of course I won't - and I am not worried at all.   And if you don't have the balls to swallow what may soon look like a tiny loss - then at least go half back in and DCA the rest.  Have skin in the game at least?

Tell me to go fuck myself if you wish, but I strongly advise you to:  Man up, own a mistake and get back into the best asymmetrical bet you ever discovered in your life.

One that WILL go higher than here in time.   

When? Fuck knows.  If? Is not really in question.
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 09:31:47 AM
You guys have to stop writing so much, though.



Actually the WHO just announced pets are not a risk for passing on COVID-19.

So, it's true:  WHO let the dogs out.
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 08:50:51 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

"Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States"."

Bernie could do this with Bitcoin. Do I think he would, idk, but Im sure Trump or Biden wouldn't. True it wouldnt censor Bitcoin, but an executive order banning Bitcoin ownership would put me out of the hodl game.

Its the extreme leftists Bernie would appoint to power that I would worry about most. A Bernie Fed ran by a communist bartender chick could easily ban Bitcoin.

Luckily Bernie isnt a threat to win anymore.  Smiley

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

I am not up on US politics as much as you seem to be, but why do you think Bernie Sanders would ban Bitcoin?  I mean, I thought it was impossible to 'ban' Bitcoin, isn't that the point?

Also, forgive me for asking but how can you be 'sure' Trump won't try it (if as you seem to say it is possible to do so):
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 08:02:06 PM


That didn't age very well....

Eric backed it up a few days later:

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1233478845719818242

Seems the whole family is smart.
179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2020, 07:49:26 PM
Given Trump seems actively involved in trying to cover up US cases of Covid-19, I now think there is a better than 50% chance this will bring him down.

Maybe. He scrapped the pandemic team in 2018. Then the tests they were using (in spite of tried-and-tested better ones being available) didn't work.  

Also, they have only managed to test around 6,000 people, while the UK has tested 25,000 and other countries are way ahead (Korea is at 170,000).  This is more concerning.

Not testing means figures for 'cases' are meaningless.  It does not mean 'there are no cases' if no large scale testing is in place.... and with no centralised chain of command to collate data and coordinate efforts, things are not looking like they got off to a good start. Plus 28% of people have no easy access to any healthcare and, oh yeah - with no statutory sick pay rules, people have an incentive to go to work rather than stay at home if they are ill.

America is at risk of being found systemically ill-prepared.  

I am guessing we are about to see how a lack of a universal care system (not the norm in first world countries) works in a real time experiment.

Then again if it is #justaflu, I am sure it will all be OK and Trump will come up smelling of roses, he seems just the man for the job.

EDIT: @HM I think you covered a little extra than I first read - and better than I did. 
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2020, 02:39:59 PM
Coronavirus may be getting weaker due to evolutionary pressure - aggressive quarantining of patients who become very sick

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

This evolutionary pressure has been shown in the past, inadvertently in reverse.  

The 'Spanish Flu' (an H1N1 virus) broke out during WWI.  At that time soldiers with lesser symptoms stayed on post, the more serious ones were sent home on crowded ships and trains.  This probably had the effect of selecting a worse form of the virus to be spread around the world.  Many more millions of people were killed by this 'flu' than the war itself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

"In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus."

Quarantining all serious cases should have the opposite effect, so this does make sense.  It is quite true that seriously fatal strains tend to kill their carriers and milder strains do not, and therefore survive in the population more easily.  

Let's hope this is how it plays out.  I know it'll disappoint the eugenics fans here, but hey, I am not much of a fan of mass deaths as they tend to get close to home. I really would rather it turned out to have all been 'not that bad in the end'.
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