Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I have enough beer for the night, I think.. Most of a 30 pack..

I told my mom to stock up on food, she finally listened, and told me today that she bought 5 cases of beer to last a little while so she doesn't have to go to town..

Anyone else feel like getting blackout drunk?

You should stick with cookies and milk. 

You will thank me later.   

Don't mind cookies and milk... Your laddering!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54018476#msg54018476

I need to know FFS!

I got ya.. I got ya...

Frequently, there are little mistakes, here and there... and slip ups .. so I had a couple of little slip ups, and I am just not going to say.. and one of them is still hopefully going to resolve itself.. after I tweaked it a bit to attempt to make up for my own stupid-ass oversight error.. which I kind of hate to detail.. but just that I got one digit off, and ended up causing the order NOT to fill and then I did not notice until the price moved away from it.. and it is much better for me if the god damned thing would have filled like it was supposed to have done... hahahahaha.. 1st world problems.   .

[NeuroticFish]

So you should invest more now, to lower your break even point.

Easy to say, but I won't have funds to invest for at least one more month 

[Bossian]

To keep things very simple, we had:

-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019

What is worrying in this trend is the constant lower highs (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.

If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).

What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.

[JayJuanGee]

WO is for times like these.
Woke up in the middle of the shit-storm, and as I had used all my available fiat earlier on, I started reading slowly for a change.

Disappointed with mindrust.
Admired Lambie & JJG.
Noticed jonoiv going long, and that peonminer sucking dicks on sale.
Closely following every post.

Hopefully we've now had our fucking bottom.
What a night.

Beautiful day though.
Good morning motherfuckers.

edit: HUG ME

You guys have to stop writing so much, though.

I remember the good ole days when there were not too many peeps posting besides myself... so it was easier for me to keep up.. because of course, I did not feel any kind of need to read my own posts. 

Not sure if there is any kind of exact solution, though because more posts do tend to come during more volatile price periods.

[mindrust]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

[JayJuanGee]

Let's hope that the bottom is in with our current local low of $3,850.... but probably we are less than 50/50 odds with that?

sir, don't get me wrong . But i am new in yours conversation. If the price goes to the bottom, the miners will be in loss and it can be a threat to the bitcoin ecosystem. I may be wrong but let's see what happen next.

Sure, you are correct, Review Master, but miners can work at a loss for extended periods and also they will self-adjust their behavior and difficulty will adjust too... so miner costs and behavior will also adjust to the price.. to some degree.. of course there is debate about whether miners follow BTC price or BTC price follows miner costs.. yet I would not conclude that BTC price has to be over a certain amount, merely because the miners costs are at a certain level.. and also in the short term a lot of things can happen that the miners might just suck up.. to the extent that they were not causing such dynamics.. Accordingly, some more efficient miners might get deluded pleasure to attempt to force other miners out by forcing the BTC price down and behaviors like that.

[JSRAW]

JJG, My vision is 20/20 ... Just saying 

[Paashaas]

These dumps happend before and will happen many times after all the way up to a $1m per coin.

[Tash]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Data so far shows the death to recovery rate is worse in countries who spent more on health.
By the looks of things people also lack Vitamins C, D (sun)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54019072#msg54019072

[HairyMaclairy]

Just look at that beautiful volume.

This could be the volume spike we need to seal the bottom of the bear market.

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

Meh, you don't know at this time with the hysteria going around.... a bit lower is not excluded at the moment, don't like it, but will go through it, my mind around BTC is made in the past, my RL investments and house and sh*t are been figured out so I have been putting myself in a situation where I can float with whats happening, maybe thats just the most important of it all, healthy DCA, healthy strategy, nonetheless this isn't taking away that I hate us being here right now, but many more in the world are struggling with far worse financial struggling atm and I feel sorry for everyone. 

Of course, each of us has to find his/her own balance, and I am NOT trying to be overly harsh on mindrust.

You know as well as I do that we had a lot of back and forth with mindrust, so it can be a bit frustrating to see him engage in a kind of flip flopping, yet in the end, the decisions are his.. furthermore, each of us has a right to express opinions on the topic, since we are posting in a public thread, so surely have to appreciate that mindrust is willing to share some of his deliberations in this thread, even though sometimes he is going to end up getting attacked on certain aspects.. that is part of the deal when you post matters publicly... and hopefully  some of us are able to learn from these kinds of interactions.. even if it is merely a matter of just trying to better understand the situations of others, even if seeming to be flip-flopping.


Frequently, my responses are also just a kind of spontaneous rendition, so sometime I might consider if maybe I could word my response in a better way, or not be so repetitive or maybe ask a question rather than attempting to give an answer and assuming too much about some facts or logic that is not clear from the description up to that point.

[Saint-loup]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Data so far shows the death to recovery rate is worse in countries who spent more on health.
By the looks of things people also lack Vitamins C, D (sun)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54019072#msg54019072

How do you know it's because of vitamin D and not because of their ethnicity?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccine is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

[JayJuanGee]

[[edited out]

Yeah exactly my thoughts. Roach #2. Roach material  

That's all we need is another Roach... hahahaha

There are a few roach-like peeps posting in this thread from time to time, and no need to really make a list...  

[Wekkel]

JJG back to wordy.
Markets in calm(er) water again.
All is fine 

[Saint-loup]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

[bitcoinPsycho]

Not buying not selling... just HODLing...

If no one buys the price won't rise up.

right - hodl is such fkcud up

only real scale & use can fix bitcoin

- finally:

hodl: no use case

Why don't you fuck off hv?  You hate bitcoin anyway

[Majormax]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

[mindrust]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

You got me.

I never mentioned the amount though:d

[HairyMaclairy]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

21 million.


Patience Padawan