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1781  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: August 17, 2015, 06:13:49 PM
Ich hoffe die XT Betreiber bleiben auf ihrem Fork sitzen und haben danach gute Verluste und einen wertlosen Altcoin. Ich habe nichts gegen eine Anpassung der Blocksize, aber die Umsetzung geht so gar nicht.  Embarrassed

Und wie wäre die Umsetzung deiner Ansicht nach besser zu machen?

1782  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: August 17, 2015, 06:04:19 PM
Wie schaut es eigentlich bei electrum als wallet aus? Welche Blockchain wird da weiter benutzt?

electrum.0x0000.de läuft auf XT 0.11a
1783  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 16, 2015, 06:45:21 AM

with this forking-mess we could easily break 255$

yeah, possible.

I'm thinking this blocksize debate mess could be a catalyst similar to silkroad bust: The uncertainty is holding back investment. If cleared to the positive (let's say 75% of miners do switch to xt) early next year the uncertainty is removed and with the halving just around the corner in addition, things could get hot fast.
1784  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: "fast flux" false abuse report received for my node and seed.bitcoin.sipa.be on: August 15, 2015, 06:22:02 PM
Interestingly, Time Warner Cable just shut down* my residential cable modem for this same reason-- they received an abuse report about Fast Flux at my IP address, and I run a full Bitcoin Core node. Well, past tense, ran-- I am going to shut it down, now, because I don't want to risk getting reported again (even though I've done nothing wrong.) I had to call them and get transferred to their Security department to get my service restored.

fucking paranoid wimps at Time Warner Cable... who are they to deny service based on suspicion
1785  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 15, 2015, 02:23:15 PM
Is the cup-and-handle still in play, or was that invalidated? I scrolled back a few pages, but may have missed it.

I stopped out when we broke $276 on Bitfinex..... now just waiting to get back in. I'm still bullish on the longer term, but wondering if we might be forming a range in the mid term, rather than going full on bull.

I think it's still in play. The 20 days (lucif threw around) is exceeded, but the 50% max retract (from textbook) is not.

It's quite possible the cup & handle wont play out (handle is pretty prolonged already and if we don't see rising price and volume soon or even drag lower, the pattern is dead) and I have a feeling masterlucs prediction of long "silence phase" could play out... accumulation!
1786  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? on: July 31, 2015, 07:40:39 PM
Keep in mind that the halving happened in 2013 where we saw not just one but two insane bubbles.  I do agree that the halving had a major role in the first.

Slight correction: the first halving happened on November 28th 2012 (see block 210,000).
1787  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? on: July 31, 2015, 11:47:10 AM
I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Let's look at last time:



I say it was halving-induced. Price went from $5 to ~$125, a 25x increase. So I think my earlier estimation of a 10x increase is conservative under these assumptions.
1788  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: UnTorrent.Me - Convert torrents into zip downloads on: July 31, 2015, 10:27:51 AM
Don't worry about it dissappearing like bitfetch yet.

wonderful!
1789  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: July 29, 2015, 04:06:34 PM
Not sure if I maybe missed this somewhere but is there a way to change to change to labels of the individual accounts?

There where it says 'Account#1' 'Account#2' etc...



It's possible in electrum.


Tried it in the latest version but there seems to be a bug. If I rename the first account the label sticks, if I however after that change the label of the second account the label on the first one changes back to the default name again. So not working as it should.

can you open a ticket here: https://github.com/spesmilo/electrum/issues
1790  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Auroracoin - A new chapter in the history of Iceland! on: July 29, 2015, 03:55:10 PM
Damn, looking at it, it looks like a really safe investment now, Ill chip in some of my staked coins perhaps.
But then, there are also some cheaper coins still.

True, and they are going to become cheaper and cheaper compared to AUR pretty soon  Wink

hehe, I was thinking about how to answer HCLivess. Glad I didn't... your answer is gold.
1791  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: July 29, 2015, 03:54:22 PM
Not sure if I maybe missed this somewhere but is there a way to change to change to labels of the individual accounts?

There where it says 'Account#1' 'Account#2' etc...



It's possible in electrum.
1792  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: UnTorrent.Me - Convert torrents into zip downloads on: July 29, 2015, 03:25:24 PM
I never thought I would say something like this to a service provider, but I think your price of about 0.15 $/GB is too low given the service and support quality.

I would continue using the service with the same volume even if you increased to 0.25 $/GB. Above that I would start thinking about alternatives.

Not trying to get you to increase price, just so you know there is some air to the upside with at least one customer Wink.
1793  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: UnTorrent.Me - Convert torrents into zip downloads on: July 28, 2015, 07:38:07 PM
Done.

fucking hell, 1 hour from feature request to deployed implementation (I tested, it works)

I draw my hat.

1794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2015, 07:25:44 PM
What is this up trend due to?

When it was the the Greek problem it was logic,but now?
Bitcoin has many advantages compared to fiat money. Why isn't that logic enough for you?

Waiting 10-30mins for conformation is not an advantage in the daily use...

SEPA transfer takes a day where I live and paypal / visa could transact BTC just fine through their network if they wanted to.
1795  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 28, 2015, 07:21:33 PM
hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

Because people believe Yellen will increase interest rates?
1796  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: UnTorrent.Me - Convert torrents into zip downloads on: July 28, 2015, 07:19:46 PM
Next time I download something I will try and post back here with result.

s..t, I totally forgot to do this.
1797  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: UnTorrent.Me - Convert torrents into zip downloads on: July 28, 2015, 07:17:37 PM
convenience.me Wink   Is it possible to have the Enter key to start the process instead of having to move the mouse over to the button and click?

I second this feature request.

I'm regularly kept wondering why the download doesn't start. Then I remember: "use the mouse to click the button", stupid Wink

EDIT: you know you have produced great software when people start requesting convenience-features like that.
1798  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? on: July 28, 2015, 07:14:33 PM
traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

I agree, but there is no way to measure that.

Furthermore, supply and demand are not numbers. They are curves. The price is at the intersection of the curves. The reduction of mined bitcoins will shift the supply curve, but without knowing what the curves look like, there is no way to determine what effect that shift will have.

There are different ways of estimating the effect of the change in supply.

If you assume that demand is constant over time (which is not realistic, of course), then a good estimate of the effect of inflation is simply to reduce the price by about the amount of the inflation. So, in this case at the time of the halving, the price would change from dropping by 8% per year to dropping by 4% per year.

Another way is to look at the change in volume over the entire exchange volume. This comparison itself overestimates the effect because people exchange bitcoins for other things of value, not just currency.

People are also treating the halving as a supply shock, when it isn't. While rate of increase in the money supply changes suddenly from 3600 BTC per day to 1800 BTC per day, the relative change in the money supply itself is quite small.


Thanks for these comments. They are valuable.

We have to be careful when talking about "supply" in this context. It can mean 2 things:

  • the money supply (14 million BTC and adding 3600 / day)
  • the mining production output (amount of 'commodity' the producers are willing to provide to the market)

In the second meaning, the categorization of the halving as a 'supply shock' is correct.
1799  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you expect from the halving in 2016? on: July 28, 2015, 07:08:33 PM
I would hazard to guess that market players in 2012 were far more conscious of the underlying tech than they are now and the upcoming halving will have less of an impact.

why would it have less of an impact if people are less conscious about it? If anything it would have more of an impact, because the halving is something real that will have an effect wether people are aware of it or not. People 'back in 2012' would've (if they were more conscious of the halving and its effects) priced it in earlier, too.

Your average bot or Chinese dumper really doesn't give much of a shit. They're there to milk it for USD/CNY day in day out.

Exactly, so he will be forced to dump a higher percentage of his coins (or stop mining, depending on his efficiency and the bitcoin price) because his mining reward is cut in half. In aggragate, miners will dump less coins.

It's not about perception in this case.
1800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: July 28, 2015, 07:00:28 PM
Is that cup and hadle here 4 months long?




I'm thinking about this.

Could we still say it's possible to play out?

We just about reached the left rim of the cup, but the right rim (usually it should be equal price, but it's not in this case) is still $15 or so away. So we haven't really broken out of the handle, have we?

I'm trying to figure out if we could still be in the handle for a while and go back down to something in between 260 and 280 and then start the breakout?

masterluc suggested the handle could be up to 20 days from rim of cup (which was on 7/12), so only a couple of days left.

So... could the handle be longer than that? Is the cup & handle still valid?

'Simplest' solution to keep the pattern alive and also the 20 days intact would be a break above and beyond $315 this week, but I'm not sure that's in the cards from a shorter-term perspective.

Opinions?

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