Sucks that you used bitcoin since 2010 (guessing, not sure) [and did not find a stash you forgot about or something on your harddrive] and rebought in 2013.
Nope...no stash on old USB stick or nothing. Even have the same wallet on my hardrive, showing old 2011-12 transactions for numbers like 177 BTC. Just around 500 quid worth or something back when that particular transaction was made. I would put my mother on the game to get those 177 BTC back alone! What's your mother look like? I mean, 177 coins is a lot of money, but if she's in prime shape... |
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Okay... as mentioned one post above, I changed my mind about how to interpret the output of my indicator, though I didn't change the formula itself.
I'd rather think of it as a 'reversal indicator', because the (previous) upper side of the value range doesn't really say that a continuation is guaranteed or even likely, just that no signs for a reversal can be picked up. Think of it like looking, for example, for bearish divergences on the RSI: finding one is an indication that a trend is about reverse, but not finding one is not equally an indication that the trend will continue. Below I'll re-post the previously calculated values as: RI = 100-CI, i.e. mapping the 0 effect to 100, and vice versa, and calling it "RI" (reversal index) from now.
Once more, the suggested (from now on) way to read the RI value is as follows:
100 = reversal (from main trend) certain
50 = undecided/unclear signal
0 = no sign of reversal (by the metric of the RI)
(edit) To keep track of performance, I take note of current price (H+L/2 of last closed daily interval at time of calculation), and the direction (up, down) and starting point of what is assumed to be the current main trend.
This is also the last new post I'll make in updating the values. all further values will be added inside this post by edits. I feel this method isn't really worth bumping to the 1st page of the forum every day. Feel free to check on it if you wish though, I'll keep updating it daily, if possible.
2014-06-04, 3:08 PM CEST
RI = 46
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $665
2014-06-05 3:39 PM CEST
RI = 40
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $648
2014-06-06 3:02 PM CEST
RI = 39
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $655
2014-06-07 3:07 PM CEST
RI = 44
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $655
2014-06-08 8:37 PM CEST
RI = 38
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $647
2014-06-09 3:00 PM CEST
RI = 45
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $656
2014-06-10 4:00 PM CEST
RI = 43
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $649
comment: RI continues to stay below 50, which implies the larger upwards trend is likely still intact. Momentum signals differ: 1d MACD just turned negative, so it'll be interesting to see how the situation resolves.
2014-06-11 04:15 PM CEST
RI = 49
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $650
2014-06-12 3:30 PM CEST
RI = 51
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $634
comment: first time during this swing that RI goes above 50. Slightly so, but if past results apply here as well, it's starting to look like the downturn isn't over yet.
also, I'm already not too happy with the results of the RI, but have some ideas how to fine tune it better. I will however continue this first "experiment cycle" with the old rules to get a result at the end that allows me to draw some conclusions. Afterwards, if I think improvements might work, I can do the next cycle with the new rules
2014-06-13 4:00 PM CEST
RI = 52
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $590
comment: I'm late with the post, but the value above is calculated for the chart ~24h after the last one for consistency.
The method doesn't really provide a price target, but if I look at the situations in the past where similar values came in, I would consider ~$530 to be a possibility in the coming days.
2014-06-15 2:00 AM CEST
RI = 57
trend: up (from 2014-05-20)
price: $566
comment: Last update for now. RI = 57 just states what is obvious anyway: the previously dominant trend is broken. I'll stop posting updates for now because I don't see how it can inform anyone's trading. We went down substantially, and the question right now is if, how and when we will go back into an upwards trend, but the RI in its current form can't answer that question.
I'll make another post with a more detailed analysis of the results for now, together with a chart of the values of the RI, and then I'll work on improving it. The RI value crossed 50 shortly before the crash began, but e.g. daily MACD would have actually performed better this time, so I should work on it.
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I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.
If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as
1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat
Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.
If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.
(imho)
I agree with that. There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time. (where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones) Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom. Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction. Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low. Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago. What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore. |
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Orange circles are major price moves initiating smack in the middle of "Chinese night".
Must be them sleepwalking Chinamen, eh?
Check the volume plots at Huobi on those days... But, hey, if you don't believe in China, that is fine. I am just looking at the charts for fun, or the academic version thereof. I hope that China pulls out from bitcoin soon, so that we have one less thing to disagree about. 
We probably disagree though in a different way than you think we do. Since I trade, and my money is on the line as result, I can't afford to ignore the influence of Chinese traders. In other words, wishful thinking that "China is priced in already" or something like that will have a very real chance to hurt me, so I rather don't hold such silly believes. On the other, there is the equally naive notion that "the West" slavically follows "China". Which seems to be your view of the current situation. And, for the same reason as above, that analysis is so dumb, it would cost me money as well, so I rather don't hold it either  |
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Here is my take:  watcha thinking about it? Thanks. That gave me the first good chuckle of the day. |
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Must be them sleepwalking Chinamen, eh?
I found some archival material of Jorge performing some early research into the Chinese Slumber Method  Hey, you can't prove those computational geometry results when you're tired. Wait, actually you can. "Hey, sherpa, I mean: postdoc! Get cracking, I want some results until tomorrow!"  |
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China isn't as significant as people would like to believe
Of course it isn't. Like now, for example, the price is not moving only because the Wertern traders are holding back while the Chinese are sleeping. They do not want the spectators at the Chinese exchanges to miss any of the action. Now that's funny, doc. Are we allowed to assume that the Chinese, just like us Westerners, like to take a nap occasionally? Maybe sleep from, say around 11pm to around 7am? You know, one could say, they slumber during that time? And maybe we could see what happens on Bitstamp during those hours (-8h to map to tradingview time), based on some volatility measure... oh, if only such a thing existed. Something to measure the narrowness of the (price) trading bands... Oh, whatever, I'll cut the bullshit. Here, take a look:  Orange circles are major price moves initiating smack in the middle of "Chinese night". Must be them sleepwalking Chinamen, eh? |
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I know a few places that actually give discounts for buying with Bitcoins in my country. One is a webshop that sells computers: if you pay in BTC there they don't charge you any shipping costs. The other one is a food delivery service that normally charges you transaction costs if you pay with a credit card or directly through your bank, but if you pay in BTC you don't have to pay for that. Those are rather small incentives I know, but you have to start somewhere. :)
thuisbezorgd, huh? :P |
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I think the main problem is there is not really much incentive now for consumers to buy with bitcoins. Ppl buy things at overstock or at TigerDirect either to support them or to cash out avoiding international wires from exchanges, etc.
At the moment, I have not heard about discount for buying with bitcoins. Since I live in US, I have no incentive whatsoever to buy from Overstock or TigerDirect using bitcoins. It will only cost me extra to buy btc, not mention the hassle.
I wonder why buying digital content (movies, music) with btc is not more popular - that would make more sense. So far buying things online with btc is not competitive, because it is mostly implemented by business selling mostly domestically anyway, and for this domestic currency is more convenient and cheaper. So unless we will see "10% discounts for buying with btc" ads, I think most this buying with btc is done for promotional purposes or (under the radar) cashing out.
Agreed. So far there isn't enough incentive for customers to switch to Bitcoin based payments. But the first step is getting the merchants on board, through cheaper rates. It's up to them then to give an incentive to customers to actually use it. By the way, I don't think it's coincidence that the new, even cheaper than before, Bitpay fee structure is introduced relatively briefly after a $30 million funding round. Part of me suspects, the fees are actually slightly below their own break-even point, but they use the extra buffer they got through the latest funding to aggressively win new businesses through their flat fees. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what happened. Could however mean that they will eventually raise prices. |
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I really don't think that Bitcoin will test the trend at $530. With the long term indicators on the weekly chart all conspiring, to show a buy signal, who is gonna sell their BTC that low? Somehow, I doubt that there are many short sellers and on Bitfinex, the main leveraged trading site, there has already been huge profit taking on two occasions and 23% Fib level was as far is it got, twice.
Why not? May I present to you: the Oct 2 crash.  1w MACD just turned green? check. Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check. Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well. I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime... Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter. Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens. |
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I like what I'm seeing.  I should add little logo or something to be embedded in screenshots ;) Do you like the new colors of the 'multi' mode ? hehe, you're right... here's the improved version of the screen cap :D  |
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I like what I'm seeing. |
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Snark aside though: good choice, I'd say, especially if you think your impulses get in your way.
I'm planning to continue trading, but I'm extremely cautious, if in doubt, erring on the side of being long. I briefly went short briefly after the first 680 peak, but bought back in again a day and a half later net neutral because I didn't feel comfortable anymore betting on another drop.
Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.
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10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!
Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.
I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?
MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or will I prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?
The last bear (kinda) has turned bull... This can only mean one thing :/  |
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I slapped on an 'addendum #2', with an argument in favor of a minimum price target of $2000 in the near future, motivated by the conclusions from my post about payment processors.
Feedback very welcome.
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2014-06-05, 3:39 PM CEST
CI = 60
current main trend: up
price at calculation: $647
* * *
Please note the correction I made in OP: the way to look at CI values near the top is different from what I said at first... it does not amount to the claim that "reversal is unlikely", but rather "no indication that a reversal is underway".
So I should probably rename it "reversal index", and map the current 0 effect to 100.
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I have built a few sites for clients in the past that use bitpay and the price gap was an issue because of high priced items they sold (mainly metals and jewels) margins were tight in the market and the offset disrupted the prices quite a bit
I see. Something to watch out for then, I guess. Wonder if there's a site that tracks historic Bitpay rates vs. market rates. |
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I know that BitPay is bigger, but why isn't CoinBase such a big fundamental? Does BitPay provide a better service?
I don't know. Because I read about Bitpay this morning? I don't have any shares in them so: Yay for Coinbase as well! They're at least as good as Bitpay (probably? tell me, please.) |
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ok as an extreme example I want to buy a $100 item;
bitcoin average says 1btc = 500
so I would need to pay .2 btc + miner fees
however according to the ticker the merchant uses (the bitpay api)
I would have to pay .3 so now my item is way more expensive than paying with paypal or visa which won't cost me anything
in other words it does matter to the merchant he won't sell me as I would be looking for an other merchant with better rates for me as a customer
Okay, got it now. Bitpay's current exchange rate: 644.7 Bitstamp, median price of previous hour: 645.7 Less than 1% apart (actually, 0.15%). Possible that they price it such that they make a (small) profit on it, but you'd have to time your own buys/sells and following transactions pretty well to beat them. |
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Agreed with the main message, Bitpay is actually the strongest fundamental I know of. But as others said it needs to scale and it isn't proven yet. Bitpay may also have some hidden costs or risks that they have just been lucky to avoid so far.
Agreed as well. Bitpay is arguably one of the strongest fundamental we have. And 'will the network scale?' is the biggest open question right now. I'm betting it will. The need for proof-of-work and confirmation time are in some sense an overhead when compared to centralized systems, but not to the point where I see the decentralized system, when coded and run by some pretty competent engineers, incapable to scale to the size of the centralized system. Reminds me a bit of the old 'commercial' vs 'open source' software debate. Consumer market aside, there are areas (servers) where OSS is simply the de facto standard. In other words: it scaled well. I can absolutely see the same thing happening for Bitcoin. |
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