Could you provide your calculations on how the PACMiC V3 can achieve a 25% APR?  Does that assume  the auto rebuy feature is turned on all year long or some portion of the year?

It looks like you just purchased this PACMiC this morning.  Blocks from Antpool get counted after 6 confirmations.  So once we have had a block with 6 confirmations after you purchased that contract, you will start getting paid.

Since you have the autobuy turned to off, you will see your paid back amount increase by a factor of a payout for 1 TH/s of mining power directed at Antpool minus your profit, which is calculated by taking the number of seconds it took to find the block * .8 satoshis * amount of unpaid principal (which is .666 for the first block).

That was for V2 that is no longer offered, V3 is on the next tab and is showing .0166 of profit after 71.5 days.

Basically, the V3 tab simulates a contract being bought under the conditions that the current V3 PACMiC is offered for with no auto rebuy turned on or difficulty changes. (Difficulty changes should have a pretty minimal effect on the final profit anyway).

What it does is assume that on average Antpool should find 28 blocks per day, then just runs through the simulation as if a block was found every 3,086 seconds, which would equal 28 blocks per day.

At this rate, the contract will be paid back in 71.5 days, with a profit of .0166, which, when annualized, gets a APR of about 12.7%.

A) Under setting there is a box that says, "Change Trade PIN", you just set yours for the first time there.
B) For the PACMiC, if you click on "Contract" then , "My Contracts" it will show you the breakdown of the PACMiC you just bought.  It will show profit, how much has been paid back, and other interesting metrics broken down to the per block level.
C) Click, "Wallet" then withdraw.  Over 10 bitcoin withdraws can take a few hours to be approved.

I think they are just not convening what they mean properly...

2015-08-12 23:46:11   369614   3022   3.0   0.0010962   0.0   0.0000483   1.9980483   0.0

Here is my first payout on one of my contracts.  If you take...
seconds X .000000008 X Remaining Balance
  3022    X .000000008 X     1.998                    = .00000483 btc          which is what my profit is.


Also, from their ToS, it says...
Unpaid principal (BTC) * 0.8 (satoshis per BTC per second) * time to find a block (seconds)
It is just based off of the amount of unpaid principal, but it would be the same amount of profit as a V2 contract with .666 left to be paid on it.

sigh, so much fail in one sentence. 
I am not predicting future difficulty changes at all, that spreadsheet doesn't even take into account difficulty changes.

1. Antpool does not have low payouts, your spreading FUD.

2. Here is the analysis I did on the new V3 contracts...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zbKKyXtW0vcfGDufk_UIRg_gAi0JzjsFwvB7LGj8bOI/edit?usp=sharing

No no, please scrutinize.  I think my math is correct, but it just seems so far off from what Bitmain says that I am skeptical.  If I am right, then they are advertising way over what that asset should be showing as a APR.

No, the 7% is the annualized rate for the V2, on the next tab for V3 the annualized is 12.73%.

I think the 25% comes from if the same amount of profit was paid as the first block of every contract, for every block.  That gets me to around 25% I believe, but that is not really a fair way to evaluate the asset.

Here is my spreadsheet...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zbKKyXtW0vcfGDufk_UIRg_gAi0JzjsFwvB7LGj8bOI/edit?usp=sharing

I am not getting to the 25% APR they are advertising, perhaps I have an error?  Can anyone correct my calcs for the V2 and V3?

Here is my spreadsheet...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zbKKyXtW0vcfGDufk_UIRg_gAi0JzjsFwvB7LGj8bOI/edit?usp=sharing

I am not getting to the 25% APR, perhaps I have an error?  Can anyone correct my calcs for the V2 and V3?

Hmm, I just saw that.  I will publish my calcs in a bit on google docs, but I don't see how I could be off by that far.  IDK though, it could be possible.

Based on a quick spreadsheet, it looks like the V3 PACMiC will return less profit per contract, but because they are cheaper, will take shorter to pay off, which has an effect of providing a higher APR.

Should be around an 8.5% APR, will have to double check my spreadsheets though to make sure that is about right.

(This assumes no difficulty changes, will have to add that into my spreadsheet to see the effects of what a few percent increases will do.  Should make profits a little higher, but I doubt by much.)

Shoot, was just about to start working, now I have a whole new ToS to read and math to do. lol

It must be a bot set up to post that link on a ton of threads.  I have seen it posted just randomly around and always report the post, not sure if it ever gets banned though.

I had reported a bunch of them a few days ago, and the admins must have ignored it because it brought my accuracy down almost 10%.

Yea absolutely, I wasn't knocking anyone.  It is very important to form your own idea of when new hardware will be released.  I have a time set in my mind which is used for my calculations, and others should as well.  I was just stressing that no one really knows, and you have to look at everything yourself and form your own conclusions on when hardware will be released, and what impact that will have on your own calculations.

It seems like every other day someone comes in here and asks if blank blank blank is profitable and when will blank blank blank ROI because they heard blah blah blah.  I just always try to stress that whatever they heard is just someone's opinion and nothing is released from Bitmain about future developments, and that they need to do their own research to form a conclusion about investing instead of relying on someone else's math.

Anything you read on these forums are nothing more than people's estimations.  What Ivan has done is guess when the new machines will be released so that he can base his investment decisions off of something, nothing wrong with that (and he is probably more accurate than most) but the fact of the matter is, is that no one besides Bitmain knows if he is correct, and they aren't telling anybody.

Anything you read on these forums, not from an official Bitmain account, you need to take with a grain of salt.

Can you show a decibel meter next to the unit?  Bet its close to a jet engine.

DebitMe
Joined August 12th 2014

I like the automatic betting feature, but I think it can be expanded upon.  You need to add more options and betting strategies that it can do.  Even a simple changing between picking above or below the number every n bets would be a nice feature to add.  New strategies could easily be built in, and this would only increase your player base by offering more options.

PM sent with shipping info.  Want to post here for posterity purposes.  My bachelor's party is this weekend, so if the coins arrive on Saturday, I may not be able to pick them up from my apartment complex's office until Monday.  Just reference in case I am not on at all this weekend, I didn't run away with anything.