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1901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 10:21:44 AM
<angry>

We have been forced to endure a 13 month bear market on this forum. I personally am very much looking forward to The Great Evaporation later this year when you sod off find something better to do.
1902  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3600 ... coins on: January 15, 2015, 10:17:00 AM
can someone please correct me if i'm wrong but my understanding is that 3600 coins generated is a small amount compared to what it sold on exchanged daily

so when the block reward halfs next year it will reduce some selling but only a small percentage - so just a little less downwards pressure on price

Bitcoin started with 1 user. Now it has more.

I am not sure if every 100% of people in the world uses Bitcoin or not, I cannot verify this.

But the theory is that the rate of adoption might be higher than the rate of inflation. But if we are at 100% adoption then the rate of inflation is like 10% per year that the price will need to go down, until next year where it is 5%.

Has anyone looked at the stats? Are we at 100% adoption yet?

I can confirm we are at 102.6% global adoption.
1903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dead cat dance on: January 15, 2015, 09:57:29 AM
Who knows what it's going to do.  One thing's for sure, everyone here is brainwashed that it's an eternal bear market.  If whomever took it down this low decides it's going up, how many times will you get bear trapped before you figure out what's going on?

You say don't get attached to your investment, I say don't get attached to your trading strategy.

The opposite:everyone is brainwashed into eternal bullmarket.
What took it down was sellpressure from miners aka inflation. I don't believe in conspiracies.
No beartraps happend for more than 1 year.
Please spare me the permabullshit.

This is going nowhere until halving, no worries.
And for halving you get a big pump and then the analrape (in case it survives that long). Just deal with it.

Hmm after an 85% decline you think everyone is brainwashed into an eternal bullmarket.

The horse has bolted you fool.

sellwall on stamp, sellwall on btcchina, sellwall on huobi

Weak buysupport everywhere. The only one slightly bullish is bitfinex on a thin market in both directions.

So i buy after confirmed uptrend, thanks. I think it's going to drop more.

Got to move, guys. Catch you later. Don't be butthurt so much.  Wink

Stamp is empty and the Chinese exchanges are a sham.

Finex is the defacto trading exchange right now. You are right the price could jump about a fair bit now, but with shorts at an all time high and long leveraged swaps at the lowest levels since march 2014, the likely direction is firmly UP.
1904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 09:51:36 AM
I'd appreciate more dumps... Sepa coming through today... please dump on my face / chest.

Thx

If we could just wait til the end of the month then i can buy another 15 coins. You know it won't happen.
1905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dead cat dance on: January 15, 2015, 09:42:32 AM
Who knows what it's going to do.  One thing's for sure, everyone here is brainwashed that it's an eternal bear market.  If whomever took it down this low decides it's going up, how many times will you get bear trapped before you figure out what's going on?

You say don't get attached to your investment, I say don't get attached to your trading strategy.

The opposite:everyone is brainwashed into eternal bullmarket.
What took it down was sellpressure from miners aka inflation. I don't believe in conspiracies.
No beartraps happend for more than 1 year.
Please spare me the permabullshit.

This is going nowhere until halving, no worries.
And for halving you get a big pump and then the analrape (in case it survives that long). Just deal with it.

Hmm after an 85% decline you think everyone is brainwashed into an eternal bullmarket.

The horse has bolted you fool.
1906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 09:41:04 AM
WHat the h*** has happened to all the bears in this place?

They have gone to bear heaven.
1907  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 09:39:47 AM
what if it's a giant bulltrap before the final collapse ?

Perhaps you missed the 85% drop from the last ATH, or the intervening 13 month bear market.
1908  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3600 ... coins on: January 15, 2015, 09:33:03 AM
Which part of '3600 coins per day' do you not understand?
Bitcoin is still in socialist distribution phase for the next 5 years. So why on earth do you try to pump it? Are you monkeys or what's your problem?

It was 7200 coins per day just over a year ago, yet the price rose dramatically. In 2016 the coin inflation rate will have dropped to 5%. By 2020 it will be 2.5%, and by 2024 it will be 1.25%.

There will only ever be 21 million.

If you don't like it, don't buy it. What idiots like you don't realise is that the coin inflation rate being incredibly high (wowie 10%) is far outstripped by the  user adoption rate.

The price drop has absolutely nothing to do with inflation and everything to do with leveraged speculation. It will soon not be profitable to drive the price down much lower as the gains lessen and it promotes coin distribution. What do you think happens then?

Hint: it's why you are here talking down bitcoin on a bitcoin enthusiast forum.
1909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 03:17:56 AM
Still not buying it...

You never will..
1910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 02:48:01 AM
Hmm. Longs down to 14million, shorts at ATH 26,500 after a capitulation extraordinary high volume low. Looks like we should bounce a fair way back up.
1911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 01:55:03 AM
Too early to call reversal.  Probably just short covering

Shorts rose to 26k, not covering yet.

When I see the data regarding shorts, I see the past 1 hr and the past 24 hrs - is there anywhere that shows that overall short vs long leverage positions?



Bfxdata.
1912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 12:38:16 AM
Up or down??
1913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 12:15:46 AM

They prolly started with much less, but have easily doubled up or more during every raid making them ~16X more powerful than when they started- 32X if you count this last one. These are technically skilled traders to begin with who would be profitable traders even if they weren't market movers and market makers. When you have skill to begin with, it takes much less ammo to push the market in the direction it wants to go anyway. Even I could walk it up and walk it back on a slow day with very low volume and--as has been pointed out several times--am just a hick fireman.

Surely they don't risk all of their capital every time. One miscalculation or piece of bad luck and you get wiped out.

They don't have to risk all of it because they are so powerful, they only risk what they need to risk. They were going to push the market down until there was a long squeeze. I have no idea how much of their capital it took but surely not all of it. The problem is there has been no real bounce yet like the other four raids. This is new. They may have been too successful in accumulating coins and now they have (like me ironically) too many coins that aren't worth anything. Yes, we can leverage them up to push the market higher, but not sustainably without a fresh infusion of fiat.

This may be an unrecoverable stall without Big Money coming to the rescue and who knows how long we're going to bleed before the vultures come in and pick over our carcasses. I am not selling, but I have to prepare for an indefinite period without additional income.

This doesn't sound promising at all

Killing your trading environment isn't a great long term profit motive. Especially when you run the risk of irreperably damaging your main holding asset in the process.

This has obviously been orchestrated. The trolls are just useful idiots.

The single question remaining is where is the bottom?

1914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 12:09:39 AM
Who is still shorting???  Shocked And finex didn't even fall much...

USD   0.0243%   0.0662%   14,105,693.21 USD
BTC   0.0494%   0.0444%   26,954.87 BTC

Shorts new ATH. Longs at the lowest level since May.




There arn't that many shorting

Someone is taking out BTC credit swaps to raise the price for the few people who are shorting.  to remove liquidity.  

They did it with LTC coin too, you can look here and see http://www.bfxdata.com/

Where is written how many btc swaps is atualy shorted?
Swaps have the same timing as the price movement...

You cant tell, only infer it.
1915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 11:11:14 PM
So many butthurt permabulls, LOL. The fundamentals point towards lower equilibrium price.

No demand for coins beyond the necessary market cap for commerce. Too much supply.

Idiot. 99% of the price is speculative not medium of exchange.
1916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 07:53:31 PM
The 'bottom' does not looking too bottom'y to me. I guessed ~120$ when we were @220$ and its still looks like a pretty decent guess now.

Er on what basis, other than you want to buy in lower and missed the bottom thus far?

Edit: no real arb from huobi, fuck these empty Chinese exchanges..
1917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Keep calm and hold your BTC - Just a repeat of 2011 decline on: January 14, 2015, 07:18:30 PM
Completely agree. I have been saying we'll hit bottom between $20-80. Too many manipulators that want to push the price down.

To what end
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 06:55:03 PM
Adam, time to change the poll, "<250 within 24hours" is pointless now.

Thoughts going forward Tzupy?
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 06:43:10 PM
Longs down to 15.4 mill. Shorts still at 23,000!

It is getting mighty cheap to move the market around. Some people have made an absolute fortune by crashing the market like this. Retail is still shorting the shit out of bitcoin.

1920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 06:30:03 PM
I occasionally hear that marginal trading and leveraged is bad for Bitcoin, can someone explain ? I don't know about trading stuff, just a hodler.

not sure why it is bad in general, but its probaly one of the reasons for great votality.

leverage + weak liquidity = high votality

It works both ways as we will discover this year. What has gone down will come back up again!
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