This is a binary problem with two variables (2^2 = four outcomes) and no information exchange.
The assumptions quickly break down as BTC buyers/sellers can exchange information, and there is a point at which people would sell/buy.

For bitcoin, the decision occurs with each coin, or as a simplification, each holder.  With 100 holders each making a decision to hold or sell for a given price, that is a binary tree of 100^2 (approx 30 digit number of outcomes.)  Even is you added $1 steps for 11 to 20, that starts to add problem of dimensionality.

As someone has already posted, some people will keep some, sell some.

I'll watch and wait with interest.  Most likely they will ask them to stop while they work out what regulations apply. 

I didn't find ASIC too draconian when I was dealing with them in financial services (derivatives trading).  Also, I had the benefit of going through the licensing process for my company directly, not employing lawyers and other consultants to demonstrate expertise/capability so I was very familiar with the legal process.  (I'm going to go back through the process again later this year for "fun", but I'm not in Australia)

instant from gox or LR maybe, but not always at the receiving end 

Adam, pm received.  Will be in touch.  Always fun when playing in other jurisdictions - I'm sure we can make it work.

hmmm, I have a little company that's going to be based in Brisbane and well need a financial services license for that - timeframe is six months away so probably wouldn't suit the current urgency.  Maybe we should do our capital raise in BTC rather than AUD?

The prize goes to Canadian Kodiak.  I swapped over from crunching boinc - if that community decided to swap, difficulty could double overnight.  I was doing 1-2M credits/day there on a mix of projects on the "Siciturastra." team but my processing speed is only around #190 globally.  I've left four nvidia cards and two 4850's crunching there because they go slow on mining. 

I find the o/c community interesting (including on this board) because GPUs fry.  I have had two dead 5970's this year and also have a graveyard of a 2600 ( a fun little card), HD5850, a 4890 and a GT8800.  All running stock speeds.  Overclocking cards shortens life, so I will watch with interest when the 24/7 guys start breaking theirs.  (I also had one of my slower machines die yesterday - mobo blew a resistor on startup, but I've been lucky and only had one PSU go bang)

Currently I have an i7 in the laptop I use most of the time, six other i7's (various - with a spare 920 cpu ready to go into a mobo this week when it arrives), and AMD thing somewhere and a 9450 quad on my daughter's desk with a 5850 in it.  She doesn't mine with her laptop (the 5850m is good for 125Mhash).    I have other stuff lying around unused - eg, I have two P3 servers with nice fibre connected raid enclosures in the rack but they are noisy to run, and a couple of laptops in a box (the D620 is still very good but got retired).  There's a netbook and wife's laptop around too.

That doesn't seem excessive.

Depending on what is running around the house, between 3.2Thash and 3.5 Thash.

I don't run my nvidia cards, ati4850's or CPU on mining, they're doing something else - they might add another 300-400 Mhash.  And no, I didn't buy a whole stack of stuff, that just happens to be what I have.  (and I don't play games on my computers either - only sometimes on the laptop)

Andrew, yes, I think you have that right.  When I read the less than helpful "support" message at Gox it basically reads "we're out of LibRes money".  They are short and can't balance their accounts.

Oever at Tradehill they split their USD and LR which in some respects is a pain, and in others provides some more cross-pairs to watch, but most significantly, allows them to balance the payments.

Hi Adam,

Unfortunately, the short answer is "no".  While Tradehill will probably not need an authorisation, your rep will (or any part of TH based/covered by Australian law).  Accepting money/deposits from members of the public for something that might or might not have value in the future will probably fall under the definition of derivatives which is quite wide.  The local regulations are much wider than equities (securities).

For some business I was doing in Melbourne I needed the company to become a licensed financial advisor even though we were dealing wholesale electricity derivatives as principle in each contract.  I knew the legislation better than our specialist auditors (which was funny at the time).

If you want to follow up more off-line, get in touch.  If you can't find an address, I exchanged an email with Lance on Wednesday when I found the "forward" button on my browser initiated a double transfer.  On the plus side, I think NZ is a bit easier, but I'd need to re-read the new 1 July legislation that's just come into force.

Cheers, Patrick 

p.s. will be back trading at TH once Gox delivers my USD by snail - four days and counting . . .

Miners are not dropping out - growth is still above 1% per day (in any other market, that is HUGE).  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/  Growth has slowed - that is all you can say at the moment.

sure, buy low, sell higher, transfer repeat.

Those of us quietly doing that don't need all of the margins squeezed out of all the markets by people shouting about it - that would be no fun.

Unless they send you a notice like I got this week:

charlie, Jun-30 15:20 (JST):
Hello,
It seems like liberty reserve is having a delay on the withdraw and could take up to 3 - 5 days for your funds to show on your account
balance. But your transfer has been processed.
Thanks,
MtGox.com Team
________________________________________

I am based in NZ and there is an OTC bitcoinexchange.co.nz site where you could trade in NZ dollars, but not anonymously like on TH.  I'm not around much in July, but I'm not sure how much demand there is for NZD trading. 

As for ASIC, last time I went through the financial services licencing legislation taking deposits/money and/or trading would require authorisation.  This is definitely retail/to-the-public so those things need to be done.  At a minimum, the entity we are dealing with needs to quote their licence number.

Hmmmm, I have an account in AUD I can access - might have look and play - add some depth/liquidity.

edit: current asks are "generous", but that will change.

So, I'll put in a fictitious claim that you stole them from "my friend".  Now it is theft and there is a bit-block trace between accounts, and you are an accomplice.

Receiving something not rightfully yours = problem.  Just ask the bank that accidentally deposited $10M into an account and the person skipped to China.

Close but not yet.  Maybe I'll sell my radioactive asbestos for BTC.

I like Shibuya and I'll be at Cerulean Tower in a couple of weeks.  You don't need to be rich to live there, smart helps.

plus, this Neagle guy - if he wants all this to fail so badly, why is he spending so much time here (I saw his great website via another of his down with everything posts.)

Interesting they refer to Flooz going bust.  That case looks like it was supported by one central company.

for BTC there is no central entity acting as clearing-house  and balance keeper for all users - the point of it being distributed is there isn't a single point of failure
(example, if the US federal reserve vanished - borrowed by aliens or whatever - people would still have dollars to go buy a beer or pay for their taxi because the FED isn't a fail point (well it might be, but that's another discussion))

US thinks they are still influential (got bigger bombs), but the picture from outside the boundary is quite different.  There is a lot more money elsewhere in the world and the US owes too much.  It's still has a look of "decline and fall", and as long as the US Treasury can convince the debt holders to keep buying, the currency won't collapse (not in their interest to do so).  That was the case before the GFC, but we might be trading oil in CNY or some other denomination eventually (carefully does not put a date on it - waits for a bit more flaming - fun forum community)

but that doesn't detract from the fact someone is paying for a service in BTC - how the middle-man organises thier affairs is their business.

Similar example, I trade $ for gasoline - I don't care about refinery margins, import taxes, shipping or even the well-head production costs (probably six currencies in that chain for me domestically).  If I paid $ or BTC, someone converts it into USD, SGD, GBP (and others) along the way.  (I actually don't pay dollars, I use a piece of plastic and some electronic transaction occurs - actual currency becomes irrelevant)

The USA something is looking at bitcoin - so what?  The US is a "bit" player in this, so the 90%+ rest of the world won't care.

Gox in Japan, TH in Chile, US courts in US.