Move the decimal 6 places to the left. There's a 1,000,000 bits to a bitcoin.

I'll post it on the MP thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1020726.msg12127438#msg12127438

A hastily generated investor profit chart, I was asked for:



Sorry about not having scale on the "profit" line, but it's late and I need some sleep =)

I'll probably never be able to settle on something that everyone likes, but at least I should make sure everyone understands fully exactly what they're getting in bed with

Yeah, this month hasn't been kind to me, but has made for a much happier user base than usual. Here's bustabit's profit/wagered chart of the month so far:

Pretty incredible month so far. Well over 10k BTC wagered, with players winning the whole time! Will players luck continue, or will bustabit have its revenge?

Some sites don't let you withdraw, unless your last deposit has had N confirmations.

It's designed to protect against people splitting the network with multiple conflicting transactions (with the hope miners mine 1, and the site sees the other). It's really just mainly useful when you want to allow 0-conf deposits, but want some rudimentary protection against double spending. It's been exploited a lot in the past though, when people make an instant deposit. Then immediately do a bet. If the bet fails, attempt to split the network, otherwise let it confirm as normal. So most sites tend to go with the safer, require N confirmations before crediting your account

I'll create an interactive calculator with some sliders to allow you to control the variables and show the breakdown between MoneyPot, Investors and Apps. Ultimately though, it's all trade-offs and do think I have something that is fair for all parties.

Ah sorry, I misunderstood.  I'm used to app developers telling me they want more, not less =)

Right now, investors make proportional to what they risk, so for instance if you place a perfectly balance bet, where investors are not involved (they have zero risk) they will make zero commissions. It's not obvious to me if they "deserve" 5% of the HE for a bet that they didn't even back, but it is obvious that (some) app developers would prefer they didn't get a cut, and it's obvious that investors would prefer it =)

That's correct, you don't and won't have to. That's why I wrote: "is rather unfair for the app"

It's a good idea, but doesn't quite work. Taking the extreme examples:

A gambler aims to win 1% of the bankroll, doing a bet with a 1% house edge.  If we gave the app a 5% of the house edge, this would make the risk exceed the kelly for the investor, which is something we've promised investors we wouldn't allow. So the only real solution would be to have the limits lower, to adjust for this. But in fact, this is something the app already has control of. It can self-impose it's own limits, that would guarantee commissions.

and taking the other end of the extreme, say we have a multiplayer roulette game where the app has collected 10 BTC of bets on black, and 9.99 BTC of bets on red. The absolute worst case for investors is losing 0.01 BTC, but to give them 5% of the entire games house edge is rather unfair for the app.

Ok, BetterBets has been re-enabled, my apologizes once again.


If you were experimenting with the MP api, then no. But if you were experimenting with the BetterBets API then possibly. We got an unusual request from BetterBets and it triggered an overzealous alarm. I'm still in the process of trying to figure out exactly how that happened, as it should not have. But as it does not appear to be a security issue things are back to normal with that indicator disabled =)

I normally like to give technical-followups to things, but as this is one part of the system that relies heavily on security-through-obscurity I won't be able to

Looking through the logs, it's increasingly looking like it was a false-positive on MoneyPot's side. When I can confirm this, I will re-enable the app.

My sincere apologizes to all who were affected :/

Hi guys,

Moneypot detected a security issue with someone gaining unauthorized access to betterbets, and pre-emptively disabled the app before any harm was done. Until I work with BetterBets to figure out exactly what happened, for safety the app will have to remain locked down.
 
For users, there's no need to panic. No user funds were affected. All user funds are completely safe, and you are able to access them here: https://www.moneypot.com/apps/14-betterbets  to withdraw or do what you like =)

Well, you'll be getting closer to 0.4585% which leaves something like 0.083% for the investors. While are investors are indeed taking all the risk, it is a little amount of risk so it seems natural they are getting little reward.

And in this scenario, even though the investors aren't making much they're better off than if you didn't bet at all.

To be honest, it's an extremely hard balancing act deciding on the split. Right now I have investors telling me they make very little for the majority of bets, while baring the risk (all true). And I  app-devs telling me that when they have the big whales they making very little from their high bets as all the money goes to investors (also true).

I'm up for suggestions, but I think the split now is quite fair and the best I've been able to come up with so far =)

The autocashout value is indeed sent to the server, so it's guaranteed to take effect. I recommend players use it exclusively to reduce any latency-based worries, but most players prefer to manually hit the button and be at the mercy of lag/latency.  Actually, it's impossible to not play with the autocashout as the server will only accept a bet with one set. (it just might be higher than you'd normally intend)

Thanks for putting that together NLNico, I didn't take out a calculator to double-check it, but it like you nailed it =). When I get the time (or more importantly, energy) I'll make a calculator on MoneyPot for people to play around with their own figures.

One other interesting property is the amount investors make isn't zero-sum. Normally investors always make (or lose) the same amount of money, and it's just divided between the investors according to their stake. But here, if the bankroll increases and gamblers aren't proportionately betting more, the absolute amount investors make decrease. And conversely, if the bankroll decreases and gamblers aren't proportionally betting less, the absolute amount investors make increases. It helps reduce the problem of idle capital to some extent

But at the moment, I'm a lot more focused on the gambling side of things and improving the functionality and security rather than encouraging investing. I know everyone tells me they want a giant bankroll, and be able to offer hundreds of bitcoins a bet, but the level of sophistication and perseveration of some of the attacks against moneypot has given me a bit of pause, and desire to move slowly and harden things up.

When you're invested in MoneyPot, you're just investing in MoneyPot. As in, you need to trust MoneyPot, but don't need to trust the individual MoneyPot casinos. In many ways, casinos are to MoneyPot as what players are to most most casinos =)


Exactly, and why you should diversify outside of it =)  Like for instance, in the gambling space there are some independent casinos taking bankroll investments you can take a look at: Just-Dice, BitDice.me and SafeDice. In pure bitcoin, bitfinex offers some pretty cool swap deals. (None of these I am associated with, or have inside information). In fact, bitcoin itself is a hugely speculative investment so don't feel bad about just leaving it sit in cold storage somewhere. And there's a huge amount of opportunities in the fiat world to. But the real litmus test for any investment should be if you think it'll be +EV, and if you are ok with losing the entire thing.

I'll add a tool-tip to clarify that. "Bets Profit" is actually just -(Players Profit). I tried to put a more positive spin on "Players have lost 0.58 BTC playing here!"

There's no real relationship between "Bets Profit" and the actual amount of commissions an app has made.

I can see this now. I'll work on a revamp of the FAQ.



The app (and MoneyPot) makes exactly the same commissions regardless of the bet outcome, they both have risk-free earnings