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(oh just two clarifications, making an another post to avoid editing the OP. The hash was generated with sha256, and boursy's bitcointalk username is zirt )
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Boursy wants to challenge me to a game of Rock Paper Scissors for 3 BTC, to have a 0 house edge way of doubling his money. To show I'm not cheating, I have hashed my move: 97bc27bafe82e26f3457d90b61202bdddd5fba3a28db91ac0f7f1963612300d7
Which will be of the form: rock|randomblindinggarbage paper|blasdfasdfasdf scissors|adfasdff If I can not produce the outcome that lead to the above hash, I will automatically lose. Rock beats Scissors Paper beats Rocks Scissors beats Paper and if we pick the same, it's a draw. To accept the challenge boursy will need to send 3 BTC to: 1BWQcfmCrfHTDfgQvMiajceYbMWKx8kP3w and then post his outcome here. I will reveal what my original pick was, and pay boursy 6 BTC if I lose. Return his 3 BTC if we tie. And keep his money if he loses |
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Indeed, I'm not investing a huge amount in SD due to the risk, my passwords are very secure - but you can never 100% trust server security even if the passwords are hashed
It doesn't matter how secure your passwords are if you re-use them. In my experience watching people trying to crack accounts, I'd say having a weak password is actually better than a super strong reused password. (But of course, you're best off using a password manager or sha256("super secure password" + siteName) as your password |
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I am looking for dice site with bonus.(deposit or reload bonuses)
BTW read the terms of service *very* carefully before you agree to anything (e.g roll over requirements) -- almost without fail, deposit bonuses are in the casinos favor not yours. Off hand, I can't think of a single casino where you're mathematically better off with a deposit bonus than with a casino with out them and personally treat deposit/reload bonuses as a red flag |
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One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.
Yeah, I think you should definitely do it. I'd probably make it monthly, as updating it every week will get exhausting and monthly will be smoother. Question B: In that ~2 month window roughly leading up to the DDOS attack and extended downtime the bankroll was booking profits on the order of 0.50% per day. I tracked my returns daily and on June 15 my daily CAGR (constant average growth rate) was running 0.56%. Yes, that is over 600% per annum. According to my hand-recorded stats, there was one 53-day stretch during which only 6 days saw a loss.
Since returning to operations following the DDOS bankroll returns have been decidedly negative. I haven't been keeping exact figures but we can see that investor profits have fallen from about 434 btc in mid-July to a current 368 btc.
Are the DDOS attack and the subsequent operating recovery related in some way to the dramatic fall in bankroll returns? Have there been any changes since the DDOS/server migration that would alter expected bankroll returns?
Variance. It's a bitch. No matter how much you understand how much of a bitch variance is, it'll always surprise you. (It's a bit like software estimates, even if you know they're always off they'll still always be off). As an example, this is the profit from ~4 months of the site I run: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/o5m3b06g.pngLooks pretty stable, eh? Well, with the same amount of volume and absolutely no changes last year I had a **four** month period in which the site hadn't made any. At one point I started to seriously think someone had discovered the server seed and was subtly siphoning off all the profits, so the site neither made nor lost money. (but nah, was just variance and some aggressive loss chasers) -- Also to add to that, the style of play by the whales on the site will make a massive difference. MP has been extremely lucky to have some whales who just seem to deposit and then grind the money away, and then repeat -- which is why it had some pretty steady reliable growth. But if your whales are loss chasers / martingalers, you'll notice a pattern more like one from betking: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/a6x747dr.pngReverse martingalers (or people who like to gamble hard with their profits) will tend to create an inverse looking chart (steady gains, then big unexpected drops) etc. |
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My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.
It used to be, but it's now 70% (50% for app, 20% for MP) I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.
There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.
Fair enough. What I would do is to try estimate the EV of the investment as a whole (which is a total crap shoot that involves pulling numbers from your ass for things like counter-party risk) and then use that to determine how much I should risk in the investment itself (which itself uses the kelly <3). But lets say I guestimated the total EV of investing in MP at 1 BTC for the year, I would never actually personally "expect" to make that because there's so many variables (I could easily lose the entire investment, or make double it) |
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That is called short term variance. In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit. Its just math and you can't argue with that. 2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough. I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.
Nope. It might be maths, but it's wrong. Over a long or infinite period of time, MP investors are *not* guaranteed to be an expected profit. Case to consider: Imagine a casino that has a 1% house edge, but risks 99.99% of it's bankroll each bet. Over an long enough period of time, how much money do you think the casino will have? (Answer: It's bankroll is always going to keep getting wiped out to near zero and despite infinite amount of EV the house will never make money). That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.
I believe that is a fallacy itself (as can seen by this thread). It only holds under a set of preconditions that MP doesn't currently satisfy. Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.
Isn't this still off by 3.33x? 36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets. On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll). tldr; Don't try to predict how much you'll make  |
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At least, I'm assuming that's what he's saying.
Yeah exactly. It was just sheer, dumb luck that landed him a perfect cashout  |
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The good news is that some of the code and concepts can be reused to make multiplayer roulette and blackjack.
Multiplayer blackjack could be seriously fun if you could recreate a casino-like experience. e.g. You could have your own private table, with a private chat and play with friends against a dealer. I think for it to work, you'd need to be able to not just see each others hands but also each others "session profit" or something (as half the fun of playing with other people is doing better than them). I can actually imagine doing it when I have a bunch of friends over for a bit of fun, and not needing someone to deal. e.g. I could deposit bitcoin and then tip them all someone money and play that way. Probably the biggest obstacle for at least my group of friends, would be that no one would be comfortable using amounts in bitcoin. (e.g. playing hands of $2 is intuitive compared to 0.0034 BTC). A fiat mode might be nice for it, which displays the chips in a more comfortable unit (but still uses bitcoins in the back) (I'm not sure why, but multiplayer roulette doesn't seem as fun. Like when at a casino and playing roulette it doesn't feel like you're playing with other people. But when you're playing blackjack, even though it's really an illusion it actually feels like you're playing "with" the people at the table) |
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The free review text is provided by you!
Aww crap. How's this: Bustabit.com is one of the most popular bitcoin casinos (#2 by volume, by most metrics) based on a completely unique idea that trades off risk for reward. It has been operating since July 2014 and features one of the lowest houses (historically it's been 0.33%) and in addition to social play actually features a pvp system with users fighting each other for bonuses, which reward users for cashing out after each other, but before the bust.
Deposits take 1 confirmation, withdrawals are almost always instant. The chat is lively and often graced by Ryan himself. Everything from its superb aesthetic sense, to super highly trustworthy admin makes it the best casino in the world, bar none.
Fun fact: bustabit was originally modeled after a martingale simulator, but turns out people like martingaling a martingale simulator.
Feel free to flower up the language (I love superlatives, especially when they are directed at myself) or add some badges like "editors choice" |
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There is "unspecified-error", what is the reason?
Make sure to log out of the app you were using, in that screenshot you just leaked your access token which someone else will be able to use (I believe) |
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I'd love to get a free review of bustabit.com! If I don't like the review/conclusion, will I be able to upgrade to the paid plan?
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@copypasta - why are you intentionally writing in incorrect English? It looks a lot like you are trying to hide something  Glad I'm not the only one who picked upon that. I'm almost positive it's a native English speaker, I've seen that exact fake-foreigner style used quite a few times by someone before  |
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Is this solely from removing the bonus aspect out or are there more changes that they have made?
The removal of the bonuses account for 1%, but they also changed the probability of an instant-bust from 1-in-101 to 1-in-51 (as you can see in their fiddle), which accounts for another 1%. So in total their house edge is a static 2% higher than ours Edit: Just to be clear, I have absolutely no problems with people offering high(er) house edge games. But I do take a bit of issue with false advertising on their homepage |
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It seems like CSGOCrash is having a little difficulty, as with all the CSGO gambling sites due to the scandals.
I haven't been following it, but I thought Valve was cracking down on gambling ( source)? But it's been 3 weeks, and it seems many of the listed sites are still operational (Also bustabit has a much lower house edge than csgocrash, ours is scaled from 0 to 1%, where there's is 1-2% -- so if you already have bitcoin, ours probably makes a smarter choice  ) |
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You can print up shirts to give to people. Besides, mailing something out kind of goes against the anonymous spirit of bitcoin don't you think?
Not really, last time I did it (with silver wallets) I purposely didn't take peoples addresses myself -- I just paid for their orders. Ideally I would just bulk buy some coupons from one of the sellers, and give them out. |
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Yeah, seems like everyone wants bitcoins  I'd prefer giving out physical goods though, as it's something people can have to remember the site, and won't just lose it ^^ Now that's impressive |
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I'm a gambler for sure, but I never meant to gamble on securty. Bitmex addressed security again in their weekly newsletter - they run the tightest ship I've seen, and I wouldn't have qualms leaving funds on their exchange. The missive is long. Below is just the header, before they plunge into their own security efforts:
I like the tag line, so points for trying. However, I never really had an opinion of Bitmex but the aggressive shilling you're doing and the raving newsletter you guys sent out in a tirade against bitfinnex has never made me have a more negative opinion against an exchange before. And for what it's worth, your advice doesn't really apply to a casino. A casino *has* to have effectively a hot wallet, it might not be a bitcoin hot wallet -- but it'll be server seeds. Without having them on a live server, the casino can't operate. And if an intruder gets access to the the system, they merely need to take note of the server seeds and will allow them to be able to appear as a legitimate, lucky player. From a casinos perspective, it is *much* better if someone just directly takes money from the hot wallet, as this is immediately noticeable. At BitMEX, 2 of 3 partners must sign each withdrawal. If that condition isn’t met, then funds cannot be spent. All signing happens on offline machines ...
That sounds like *terrible* policy. Users hate waiting for funds, and if you're going to make partners sign hundreds of withdrawals per day, how much scrutiny do you really think they'll give each one? Human nature is going to mean they're blindly going to sign off on each one. Now you still basically have your cold wallet, turned into a hot wallet by human automation. As an example, see the 1.8M bitpay theft. That was signed off by a human, and that's even a company that processes very few withdrawals by hand. |
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what offline wallet are you using? is it safe to store large amount there?
If you want one that is safe to store a large amount of bitcoin, I'd strongly recommend: https://www.buytrezor.com/Or for smaller amounts (<100 bitcoin) i like mycelium for android, and hear good things about breadwallet for ios |
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I don't know if you are familiar with betbtc sports exchange but big part of our users are professional bettors that bet via API (copying other markets like betffair, betdaq, matchbook, etc), that's what is happening now in dice, not too many users but lots of rolls and probably strategies being tested.
If you notice professional betters playing your dice via api, you should be very worried. The only time I've ever seen that before are on sites that have messed up the odds that allow people to play +EV.  |
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