I personally am not competing with anyone and I am only attempting to tailor my activity to my own financial situation and my risk tolerance, etc.
I am... or I was... a politician... but I still am in my mind... So... persuasion is like a hobby! Guilty pleasure?   And... if you like trading, even if I myself do not trust one bit the exchanges. I do it so I can bleed society out faster and make it suffer, so they can scream for pain and make the real world move faster on their agenda. I don't give 2 sh!ts about money... what I like is actually power! I know it would not feel enough for me even if I was emperor of the Andromeda Galaxy and could have any power of control there.  |
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Not going to happen! ... But... This will probably happen: *Edit: I suspect that those 100k+ coins that disappeared are being moved on to SSD cards or on multiple phones and sold on the streets of China hand-to-hand like drug dealers would do... Cuz Hong Kong(Finex) is very close to China! ... And hackers are like 98% from China... *Edit2: No one would suspect a thing... they would just see 2 people holding their phones and looking on their screens! Something normal.. |
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That is correct.. each of us knows about various events, and we have various experiences that shape our views, and in the end, we respond based upon that.. and maybe even in the process disclose some of the reasons why and how we arrived at our conclusions. Well in the context that we are facing now... And by that meaning the real world is on a verge of a major banking and everything else collapse, China floods, India floods, +other Asian countries... France floods that made wheat production fall by at least 30% from the estimates... Also South America and other South Hemisphere countries have problems because the incoming mini-ice age... if you don't know on the trading of coffee ... this is the 4th year that the real world coffee productions has suffered losses! .. on average in the last 4 years losses of 30% !!! ... And other things as well... Austria received snow and floods never seen in 100 years... Italian banks are thinking of confiscating population money, EU does not let them, Germany and Deutsche Bank seems to be screaming for some bail out money... then there comes Portugal... Spain.. UK.. even if I think Spain is almost safe. And besides that there are weird wars and political events happening...
Yes some of those events are more important than others, and even within the events that you describe above, their trajectories are somewhat unknown and some of them will play off one another and people will account for the events in different ways - that is if they even know about them or know details. And all this nonsense will make BTCitcoin go to 2k - 3k in the next year!
There you go, again.. Engaging in a kind of regression back to a kind of fatalism - as if bitcoin's trajectory were inevitably up or that the outcomes of the various events that you describe are of such a nature to inevitably cause your description of bitcoin's upward price trajection.
And maybe 10k+ after 2018+
Oh? Even you recognize that there could be a "maybe" in there somewhere?  Why are you such a wuss? ... That is a relative perspective regarding "wuss", and it really does not mean anything.... I believe that I have a pretty significant investment into bitcoin, and I tend to accumulate and HODL, even when quite a few other folks seem to be selling. You should be spreading the word... our lord and savior "JesusCoin"BTCitcoin will prevail...
I am not really an evangelist of anything, but I do tend to tell people about bitcoin to the extent that they seem interested in the concept and receptive in receiving information from me.
I told all my friends to try to invest and get at least 1 coin for fun.. It can't hurt them in the long term. BTCitcoin has good "HODL" storage value in the long run!
Yeah. 1 coin should be a decent investment for anyone who might not have a large budget, but they want to get some stake in the game. Now if you could just get another 20,999,999 friends and convince them to buy at least 1 bitcoin, on or before 2140, we may end up experiencing a bitcoin shortage, which would be a "good thing," correct?  You should put it more in perspective for them... "Buy bitcoin or suffer!... Your money will be worthless!" or something like that... or at least break it to them in a diplomatic way. Many of those 20.999.999 coins will be lost on their way home to 2140! ... I'm thinking that just 19.500.000 coins will survive... the most positive outcome I think about that.And if you are convincing enough... your friends will convince other people as well for you, without bothering too much! ... Just try to create ripple effects in time... *Edit: And when I talk of 10k ... I mean as in a bottom!*Edit2:
... So I don't understand from where is this "dump, dump, dump!" FUD from you is coming...
Did I say anything about "dump, dump, dump"? I mentioned possibilities of downward price action. Anyhow, it may be worth it to repeat that I generally sell as the price goes up and buy as the price goes down. I might preemptively strike in one direction or another if I have a pretty high level of confidence that the price is going to be adjusting by at least 10% in one direction or another - but those kinds of preemptive strikes are pretty rare for me, and tend to make me nervous too. The last time that I employed a preemptive strike was last week, upon hearing about the Bitfinex situation. I sold about 3% of my total BTC stash at $583.50 and then bought back at about $508. I was attempting to buy back during the flash crash to $465, and by the time that I caught up with the matter, the price was in the $488 territory, and since I could not get my transactions to go through, I ended up buying back at about $508. There I did better than you ... Sold at 655 something like 55% - 60% of my total ... When I saw that 5$ dip from 660$ ... and waited... and waited.. waited... etc... and a few hours later price dipped 1$ per 15-20 minutes... till it reached another 15-20$ ... And then I sold the rest when I saw that 50$ dip... but I actually sold before the 50$ dip, because my exchange reacts 2-3 minutes later than the Chinese exchange. So I can basically short with no problem, at a 5-10$ loss per coin. |
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Frequently your logic (or lack thereof) escapes me.
I may not post uber bullish scenarios; nonetheless, I recognize uber bullish scenarios, and I attempt to provide, opinion, factual description and logic in such a way that takes into account both upside and downside potential. I don't proclaim to have any extra hidden insight nor agenda beyond what I periodically disclose in my posts.
You, on the other hand, seem to get so caught up in describing every situation as "up, up, up" that you either are living in a fantasy world, you are badly informed or you are merely trolling.
I'l let that sink in a bit... waiting.. waiting.. waiting... Waiting some more... ok.. waited enough! ... So you: "don't proclaim to have any extra hidden insight" ... Well in the context that we are facing now... And by that meaning the real world is on a verge of a major banking and everything else collapse, China floods, India floods, +other Asian countries... France floods that made wheat production fall by at least 30% from the estimates... Also South America and other South Hemisphere countries have problems because the incoming mini-ice age... if you don't know on the trading of coffee ... this is the 4th year that the real world coffee productions has suffered losses! .. on average in the last 4 years losses of 30% !!! ... And other things as well... Austria received snow and floods never seen in 100 years... Italian banks are thinking of confiscating population money, EU does not let them, Germany and Deutsche Bank seems to be screaming for some bail out money... then there comes Portugal... Spain.. UK.. even if I think Spain is almost safe. And besides that there are weird wars and political events happening... And all this nonsense will make BTCitcoin go to 2k - 3k in the next year! And maybe 10k+ after 2018+ ... So I don't understand from where is this "dump, dump, dump!" FUD from you is coming... Why are you such a wuss? ... You should be spreading the word... our lord and savior "JesusCoin"BTCitcoin will prevail... and to be honest I told all my friends to try to invest and get at least 1 coin for fun.. It can't hurt them in the long term. BTCitcoin has good "HODL" storage value in the long run! |
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I still don't understand who are you working for...
Could it be ...  Good one! ... But dunno... he seems to pray each night at "Fiat Gods!" |
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@adam, I know this is from bitmex, but there weekly analysis is usually pretty good. This time they evaluate the finex hack. Everyone keeps telling me to be bullish, but I'm not feeling it. I'm surprised we recovered so quickly and thought we would have dumped back to low 500's. Regardless, enclosed is article link; https://blog.bitmex.com/youve-been-buttfinessed/Thoughts? i agree, i was also expecting the market to drop, and i kinda still do, my cheep coin target is set at 520. but as always... unber bullish long term, bitfinex is but an exchange that may or may not succeed in the long run, it can only effect price for so long. i'm going to read this later, busy as fuck today... HELL of a week... We already experienced one flash drop to $465, and then a pretty significant recovery. I suppose it is possible that before we go up, we are going to have to go down first, but such downward correction is not guaranteed because hovering in the $500s for more than a week may be sufficient downward opportunities to buy... "cheep coins." I still don't understand who are you working for... or what agenda you are on to unleash. But your bearish doom and gloom propaganda it ain't flying with me. Maybe it will dip a bit before skyrocketing ... but it is sure cheap coins lower than what we have now is very unlikely! Especially in the long term! *Edit: the incident with Fenix that just happened just made things to be rushed 1-2 months in advance of schedule. |
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Hitler gets a Haircut Good one.. Hilter meme.. even if its getting old... Nice way to lay the story out... |
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so how will the price be effected when bitfinex longs start from 0 and grow back to 40million?
You forgot to include in the poll: "Not Selling." , "They don't sell." ... or something like that... |
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So... they just need to create the perfect incentive.
How about "Trust us with your money, get 64% of your money back ...maybe." Would that work? "Security of user information and funds is our first priority.Every detail is analyzed to avoid security holes. We pride ourselves on being the most secure Bitcoin exchange. Bitch." --https://www.bitfinex.com/security_policy Way to go on the low hanging fruit there, with that security sucker punch you applied... But how about you stop being so angry.. and eat a damn Snickers bar! ... And enjoy the fact that we are one hundred more pages away till we celebrate 16k posts. |
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Yeah that's not how company valuation works. Right now their balance sheet is in red by ~$120MM (meaning they have $120MM more in liabilities more than assets)
Also if you think this "incident" will have no effect on their market share (their daily volume) or their "goodwill" you're delusional
Well... I might not have had the numbers to do proper simple math thingy with how much $ they do per day... But I'm pretty sure they are making 10k$ - 50k$ per day (on average). So basically when someone wants to buy something, they need to give you more than you can make in a specific period of time, or you don't sell them jack sh!t. Its that simple.But on some level you are right because the "incident" creates a confidence problem. And they need to come up with some hocu-pocus scheme to keep you hooked in the game. Like for example look what I would do... I would say: We will give a bonus 3% of your amount if you keep your money for 1 year in the exchange. And 18% if you keep it for the next 5 years! But if you decide to withdraw your amount that bonus will be given to the other exchange participants that decided to stay. Meaning that 3% for an year can turn in to 3.82% if some people leave. And that 18% on a 5 year basis could turn in to 72.31% by the end of the time those 5 years end. So... they just need to create the perfect incentive. |
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So, who is going to be stupid enough to lay a finger on their BFX tokens?
i'm a sucker for a sweet deal that no one wants to touch. That poll... so judging by the 36% haircut, we can assume that 20% - 25% of the total was thieved!... And by that we can assume it is more than 250$ million if it was the total... But keeping in mind the current rate and the imminent bitcoin potential rise, we can say for the short term(30days) 500$ million would have sufficed, with the adjustment to inflation. But they don't have 100% ... because part of that was erased with the theft. So 250$ million would have been more appropriate and a good deal for the exchange price we have now on hand. What you are saying makes little sense. I don't know how a company could be valued based on the amount of customer funds that they supposedly hold, as that same value. Let's say that they held approximately $500 million in customer funds, that does not make them worth $500 million, but maybe (best case scenario) holding value (and being able to profit from the trading of that value) could make them worth 10% of the value that they hold? I don't know exactly what fees they have for as a theoretical... Bitcoin has the history on its side... Meaning that it will go in to a inflation period... And now to the numbers... If they have a 0.1% fee from the amount of each order. And if they have a 100-10$ million volume per day... That means 100k$ - 10k$ per day ... And if someone pays for something like this they don't pay for what is worth, but what it could be worth, they pay for the name, for the publicity, for the recognition... Meaning that in 10 years it could be bigger than the 250$ million they paid. But you are right, they should not be valued more than 150$ million... But on the other hand... They already have money! And they can probably make 100$ million or more in 10 years... And people with money need to be overpaid to budge and roll over! |
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how the F thinks bitfinex is worth 1billion?
6 poeple have voted for this option lol
Maybe they took in to consideration the future valuation of BTCitcoin?If probably goes to 3000$ - 4000$ in the short term (next 6-12 months)... it would probably make sense. |
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Btw... I like your sleeping hours Elwar... it shows that you are a trader... hehe.. Nah, I just live in Europe.  I know that you live in Europe... your polish and you live in Poland or something like that... I'm from Europe as well... Moved to Italy for a 2-3 years vacation so I can write my new books and trading in the rest of the time... Sleep is a bit weird, but all is fine in Europe, everyone clubbing till morning everywhere, but is good that I live in the suburbia, ambulances and fire trucks not bothering me that much. *Edit: That DaRude guy also has weird sleeping hours... He probably trades as well.. 100%. |
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I was able to log into my Bitfinex account. Of the 31 bitcoins I have a balance of 20 bitcoins (which I will withdraw immediately once the option is available). I have 412 USD and about 7000 BFX (tokens).
[...]
Many people will probably do the same.. and will make the price to go BOOM!!!Btw... I like your sleeping hours Elwar... it shows that you are a trader... hehe.. And btw... I think the next thing will happen in the future: From my perspective.. there will be 3 entities.. the White legal Markets... the Black Markets... and Limbo Markets .. that is a in-between market that no one knows who owns those transactions and if they are used for good or for evil..
And basically the White is a police state 100% full surveillance... And they will accept trade from other Whites... Also they will accept from Limbo... and they will try to "conquer" back what was stolen by infiltrating the Black ... But they will not accept as payment what is from Black... but confiscate it, but still not accepting it. And Black will deal with the other Black Markets... And Limbo will deal with Limbo, but they will not buy coins from the Black Markets ... but they will sell sometimes to the Black Markets, the Limbo Market coins... And that's kinda what I thought about it... What do you guys think? |
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So, who is going to be stupid enough to lay a finger on their BFX tokens?
i'm a sucker for a sweet deal that no one wants to touch. That poll... so judging by the 36% haircut, we can assume that 20% - 25% of the total was thieved!... And by that we can assume it is more than 250$ million if it was the total... But keeping in mind the current rate and the imminent bitcoin potential rise, we can say for the short term(30days) 500$ million would have sufficed, with the adjustment to inflation. But they don't have 100% ... because part of that was erased with the theft. So 250$ million would have been more appropriate and a good deal for the exchange price we have now on hand. |
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Great, detailed security page. Reassuring Maybe they where working on a new platform and it was in a beta stage... or they pulled a miracle out of their asses!  |
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However, under Hong Kong law, Bitfinex will not be able to force creditors to accept its proposal. Unlike in the US and Japan, Hong Kong does not have a system of bankruptcy protection to facilitate a Bitfinex reorganization. By arguing that Bitfinex is insolvent, creditor lawsuits could force Bitfinex into liquidation where creditors can take control. and of course no one has to accept it, i dont believe going to court would yield a better result or less of a haircut to BFX's users, but wtf do i know. i would imagine the bigger players from BFX are talking to their lawyers now, it wont be long until we know for sure if they will take the settlement or go to court. The crowd will demand confidence or retaliation... I don't see any other outcome! ... And maybe the other exchanges would participate in a small percentage on the bail-out. The path to confidence is the best option .. but will the odds be in favor of confidence?? |
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Adam, I want you to think about this for a minute. Adam: Largely we agree
A full minute may result in fire hazard This forum feels like its loading under pressure... DDOS attack occurring? |
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what happens if that person removes the amount 64% they can't, they can't access their accounts right now, when they do access there account, they will find the BFX settled all there margin positions and took 36% of their holdings. i hope this makes it clear. Nope... it does not make it clear ... The thing is ... when do they get back those 36% of their money/coins back? ... And I'm not asking when... but if they will get that full 36% back! Like full restitution!!! + % interest!Because in the end... their entity was proprietary of the coins thieved... and basically in the future they would have legal ownership over the parent address codes that where stolen. *This is pure theoretical: And keeping that in mind... A tactical missile can be literally bought and executed on a target for less than 10.000$ .. that is less than 20BTC at the current rate. And now depending if that missile is a small nuke warhead with a mediocre 5% enriched radioactive material or just something simple like C4 payload. And after hearing this, do they really actually think that taking 36% and never giving that percentage back is a good idea? .. I mean, Hong Kong where they have their server in the crystal palace skyscraper, or the owners and employees at their homes where they live... Do you think they will get away without retaliation? And all this from an all theoretical perspective of someone who does not own anything in the Finex exchange... What do you think it will happen when the ones that actually own the power of a few millions will/can do? *The proper response of Finix is: We are on our knees, in front of you! We are your slaves, and we will take it in!.. as hard as you will give it to us! Till we will pay you back that 36% confiscated from you. And a more proper way to bail in with that 36% is to restore everything as it was before the hack to everyone, fiat or bitcoin, but not allow for those 36% to be removed from the exchange. Basically you can gamble as it was before, but 36% of the settled initial amount will be compromised and kept hostage on the trading table. |
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Name of the actor next to R.Kelly ? ... hmm?? (*Edit: nvm... found him... Eric Lane is his name.. )Also the so called "bail in" ... did they also promised that 36% to be refunded in time back to the users? ... Or ... ? what? ... I mean did they just went full commies on everyone's asses or they are just doing this temporarily and in time they will refund 1% every month or so? ... And what happens if that person removes the amount 64% that they still have in their account... will they be getting that 36% back in time even if their balance is 0$ / 0BTC ? |
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