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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 18, 2024, 05:13:52 PM
I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.
BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.

Correct me if I am wrong. For this to be true, it is mandatory that you have carefully gathered your Bitcoin in DCA manner or in a way that your average price is low compared to spot value (0r 200 WMA) i.e. the value at which you want to sell.

From my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period).  So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments.  You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.

You are right that from mid 2022 to late 2023 200-WMA is above Bitcoin price. Apart from that period, most of the time 200 WMA is below Bitcoin price. So we can safely assume that if we are taking 200-WMA is reference then most time its below Bitcoin price. With 200-WMA one can easily figure out how much room he has for withdrawal. 

Of course, with my sustainable withdrawal tool (powered by bitmover), you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time.   I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in this post.

https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy this is a great tool developed by bitmover. Just enter your Bitcoin stash size and you will get to know the authorized BTC withdrawal. I will play more with this tool more to get more info about its working.
202  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 18, 2024, 08:14:00 AM
IMO, irresponsible attitude and the kind of negligence shown here are the major reasons many cricketing boards keep failing to sustain their financial system.

You got a home series and both teams are playing good cricket, it's poised well with a scoreline of 1-1. You have to make a spectacle out of it, instead, they are playing in front of empty stands. It tells you more about how many cricket boards are only interested in freeloading.

The first two ODIs were Day and Night, the second ODI was also at Chattogram. Don't know why they kept 3rd ODI for Monday and that too in day light. Already there is limited viewership for ODI and Test, if boards keep scheduling series like this then it will end up like today's game. 
Janith Liyanage maiden ODI century has given Sri Lankan bowlers some hope. Score predictor was predicting 215 but Sri Lankans concluded there innings at 235. Still Bangladesh favourite to win today's contest unless they do some serious blunders in batting.
203  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Pakistan Super League #PSL Discussion Thread on: March 18, 2024, 07:15:47 AM
The final of PSL 2024 will be played tonight between Islamabad United and Multan Sultans. It would be slightly better if final is scheduled on Sunday. Multan Sultans are favorite to win PSL 2024 because of there extraordinary performance in group stages. Islamabad united have momentum with them as they have won all of there last four games while Sultans have lost 2 of there last four games. Imad Wasim is in great form and was man of the match in last two games because of his batting and bowling.
204  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 18, 2024, 07:10:19 AM
Ireland once again showed everyone how brittle their batting lineup is, and how inconsistent their batsmen are. Actually they got a good start, as Andy Balbirnie and Paul Stirling got themselves to 49/0 after 5 overs. But once Nangeyalia Kharote bowled Stirling, the batting collapsed as usual. Lorcan Tucker made 10 runs, and apart from Delany's blitzkrieg down the order, that was the only doble digit score apart from top order. Once again the Afghan bowlers excelled, especially Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Nangeyalia Kharote.

Afghanistan has more exposure of T20I then Ireland and that may be the reason of yesterday batting collapse. These things improve over the period of time as you play more cricket against strong teams. The performance of Ireland in this series is not bad, they won the only test and so far in T20I series. You spotted right that to win the series Ireland need to address such mistakes. The kind of start Andy Balbirnie and Paul Stirling gave in the batting, Ireland should have won the game.
205  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 18, 2024, 07:03:34 AM
How come it became a Day match, I thought they had their timing set for the series decider.

Looks like a bad scheduling to me. You got your wish of no dead rubber match but it's a working day and that too in the morning. Who will fill the stand and many people not even watch live on telly. This should've been fixed to the weekend, that's how you generate some sort of revenue.

It looks very odd to have an ODI in day light. 2nd ODI was played on 15 March and 3rd ODI should be on 17 March or Sunday but strangely they didn't schedule the match on Sunday.
Things looking not much good for Sri Lanka at the moment, they have lost 7 batsmen and score is 172 in 40 overs. Score predictor telling that Sri Lanka will give a target of 215 and that wont be difficult to chase. Both matches in this series are won by side batting second.   
206  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 17, 2024, 05:37:01 PM
DC's curse continues while RCB seems all set to break their curse at last. I expected DC to score 190-200 runs initially, but they got screwed royally by the spinners. Sophie triggered the collapse through 3 wickets in a single over.

Shreyanka was amazing throughout this tournament and in this match too. Crazy roller-coaster basically!

Another final for DC-W and another loss. RCB-W didnt tried to chase the target aggressively rather they keep the chase steady and won the match in last over with just 3 balls to spare. DC-W batting is the main reason why they lost another final game. Sophie Molineux and Shreyanka Patil destroyed DC-W batting by picking 3 and 4 wickets respectively. While chasing target of 114 runs, RCB top 4 batters played there part with full responsibility.
207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 17, 2024, 05:30:50 PM
Well, I somewhat randomly picked a goal that might be a goal of someone in the west, but if you think that the goal is too high, then you can reduce the goal to your level.  Perhaps $500 per month or $1k per month, and if the goal was $500 per month, then just reduce (multiply) everything that I already said by 1/10th. ... which means that either 0.5 BTC by mid 2034 or 0.25 BTC by mid 2039 would be sufficient to accomplish the goal of $500 per month, and if you wanted an extra cushion of $1k per month, then you would have to double the target amount.

Thanks for clarifying that. I am from group of people who can invest around $200 to 250 weekly into Bitcoin. In fact I am doing that for last one year and so far results are very much satisfactory. Whatever you have just invest in Bitcoin for long term.    

Of course.  Bitcoin is for everyone or anyone who chooses to get involved in it, and anyone who gets involved investing in bitcoin within a way that is not overdoing it, then is likely going to have some benefits from such investments into bitcoin.

The best thing is if you keep investing in Bitcoin then with time your investment is guaranteed to increase. This is what we have seen so far with the help of historical data. What differs in Bitcoin is that you don't need any sort of documents to open your account for Bitcoin investment like we need in equity trading.  

So yeah, if the price corrects, he is able to buy more bitcoin and if the price goes up too rapidly then he may well not be able to get as many BTC as he thought that he would be able to get.  If he is on target and overly accumulating bitcoin, then maybe that is not a bad problem to have, or maybe if he is under accumulating, he might have to change either his target accumulation level or maybe change his timeline until such a point that both the timeline and the amount of BTC accumulated overlap... and of course, he will likely monitoring these matters along the way, and I personally like to use the 200-WMA in terms of the valuation of the BTC holdings in order to give greater protections to anyone who would not be pulling the fuck you lever too soon (prior to being actually in a good financial and/or psychological place with his BTC holdings relative to his expectations for how much income he is going to be drawing from such BTC holdings.).

That would be worst case scenario that price keep on increasing and is very much unlikely to happen. In Bitcoin journey, from here to next 10 to 15 years we will defiantly see ups and downs. So if someone is investing $250 per week then its very much likely that he will be able to get good amount of BTC in coming 10 to 15 years provided he keep investing constantly. With time he will get to know that when to be more aggressive in accumulation.
It's good to have company of 200-WMA as we move with investing in Bitcoin. For last 6 months price of Bitcoin is above 200 WMA, so there may be times where you are standing below 200 WMA and that's the point where your nerves are tested. Those who can survive that test will defiantly have good ROI waiting ahead.

In recent times, I have also been coming toward thinking that a guy might not need to have as much of a bitcoin savings as he would have to have in traditional investments since with a bitcoin investment, he likely would be able to employ a higher withdrawal rate of 6-10% in bitcoin as compared with 4% in traditional investments.

Even though I am already coming to conclude that it is likely in bitcoin that we are not going to need as much of a nest egg as we need in traditional finances in order to support ourselves from our BTC stash, since in traditional investment we need right around 25x our income in order to be able to live off of our income (which is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), and I am starting to consider that with bitcoin 10-16.7 years of income may well be enough (which is assuming a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate).. but it is still risky to overly rely on the newer models and those kinds of potential more aggressive withdrawal rates that bitcoin might be able to provide since it is more of an untested system and fairly new, so it may well be much better to rely on more conservative models and to have some cushion in the size of he BTC stash before pulling any fuck you lever that would then put you in a position where you are having to live off of your BTC stash.

I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.
208  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 17, 2024, 04:30:08 PM
2nd T20I is underway between Afghanistan and Ireland. Today Afghanistan decided to bat first after winning the toss. Ireland have picked important wicket of Rahmanullah Gurbaz in second over and after 2 overs Afghanistan have scored 7 runs. Afghanistan is much more experienced side then Ireland in T20 format but Ireland have momentum with them as they won the first T20I. It's a must win game for Afghanistan to remain in the series.
209  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 17, 2024, 03:51:48 PM
I agree. I expected the Lankans to come back strong in the second ODI and that is exactly what happened. I bet on Bangladesh to win the final ODI since they seem to have the momentum on their side.

Bangladesh need to make sure that they don't collapse while the Lankans will probably depend on Madushanka and Hasaranga to trigger a collapse.

Sri Lanka have levelled the series by winning second ODI, the performance of Bangladesh in both ODIs played so far is competitive. In my view both teams have equal chances of winning the final game. I checked betting odds and find out that Sri Lanka have odds in there favour. Sri Lanka need to be very careful in tomorrows encounter as Bangladesh are too strong at there home ground.    
210  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 17, 2024, 03:43:56 PM
What a surreal fall! DC is done and dusted at mere 113 runs, at one stage I expected double of that as target for RCB.

Seeing fall like this I wouldn't expect an easy win for RCB either (if it can happen to DC, it can happen to them also) but definitely RCB has upper hand here to win the trophy.

DC-W were not even able to play there full 20 overs rather they were bowled out in 18.3 overs for just 113 runs. They got a decent start of 64 runs in 7 overs. Both openers did there best, Shafali Verma played a brilliant knock of 44 runs on just 27 balls. Once RCB picked by Shafali Verma wickets start falling and whole team got out before 20 overs. With 113 runs on the board there are not much chances of DC-W of winning the title.
211  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Pakistan Super League #PSL Discussion Thread on: March 16, 2024, 08:42:07 AM
Peshawar Zalmi have last chance to make it to the final. Islamabad united won yesterday game but they have to beat Zalmi's today to play the final against Slutan's. Quetta journey at PSL comes to an end yesterday as they were easily beaten by Islamabad United. Good batting from IU after they won and toss and decided to bat first. Imad Wasim and Naseem Shah were impressive with bowl and together they both picked 5 wickets. Imad was also man of the match because of his spell in which he picked 4 wickets and gave just 12 runs.
212  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 16, 2024, 08:15:23 AM
We mostly see in cricket people often try to guess who will win based on how well teams are playing and how good players are. But best thing about cricket is that you can never be sure what will happen. For example in Ireland vs Afghanistan 1st T20 match everyone thought Afghanistan would win because they usually do well in T20 games. However Ireland played really well that day and surprised everyone by winning. We should give credit to Ireland bowlers for stopping Afghanistan batters. By the way match was really exciting.

It's true that in T20 format it's very much impossible to predict who will win the game. Afghanistan is much better side then Ireland in T20 format and in UAE side winning the toss also wins the match because of dew factor. In yesterday game, Afghanistan won the toss and rightly decided to bowl first and they were given a chaseable target of 149. Afghanistan start was poor as they lost 3 batsmen in first 11 balls of the innings and were never allowed by Irish bowlers to make a come back in the game.  
213  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 16, 2024, 08:07:32 AM
To be fair to Shoriful, it wasn't his mistake. He didn't see the Wellalage and was only watching the ball. Both parties were innocent and not guilty but the young Lankan had to spit it out anyway because he could've been run out and probably injured.  

And it's 1-1 now, no relevance to this series because of the T-20 WC but at least it's alive and the setup is building up nicely for the next 3 matches. I hope it is not a win the toss and win the match scenario for the rest of the series because of dew.

So we can ignore this incident as it was not intentional. The series is now 1-1, thanks to 185 runs partnership between Pathum Nissanka and Charith Asalanka otherwise Bangladesh have got early advantage by picking 3 wickets in 7 overs. Two unlucky batsmen in yesterday game, Towhid Hridoy and Charith Asalanka both were in 90s and missed there tons.
 

 
214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 16, 2024, 07:26:11 AM
.....One must have a plan where he must gather bitcoins before he start thinking to sell some of his holdings. How many Bitcoins are sufficent is a subjective question. So some people 100 Bitcoins are low while for many getting even 1 bitcoin is difficult.

I would suggest that how many BTC is not completely subjective  - even though it is based on the setting of subjective goals... So if someone might tell you what his goals are, then you would likely be able to determine a quantity of BTC that would likely satisfy the goal.

So for example, if a guy tells you that in 10 years, he would like to be able to have a monthly income of $5k without having to do any work - beyond just keeping track of his various accounts...   Then at that point you have some ideas of an approximate number of coins that the guy might need to work towards getting, and I would say that if he works towards getting close to 5 BTC for the middle of 2034, then that would likely be more than enough to meet his goals... and perhaps even 3-4 BTC might be enough... yet we cannot really know, so then he should work towards getting to 5 BTC within the next 10 years.. which may or may not be doable for all people, and if it is not doable.

Then if he changes his goal to the same kind of idea of cashflow, but with a back up target for 15 years, then I would suggest that by mid-2039, then he is likely ONLY going to need around 2.5 BTC by mid-2039 in order to reach that same objective of having a monthly income of right around $5k.. so then he has something that he believes that he might be able to reach, and if he speculates that inflation might eat away the targets, then surely maybe he could try to shoot for more BTC and to have some cushion in his goals, and so we can largely ONLY attempt to give some directional guidelines that might need to be adjusted with the passage of time...yet I would still suggest that aggressive accumulation of bitcoin should be part of the formula, and the details can be tweaked at various points along the way.

$5K is a huge amount for people living in country like mine i.e. Pakistan. Those who are in developed country like Europe or USA can have the luxury of having such high income per month but only few one here can have that much high income. Here average salary per month is 300$. So defiantly I can't go with this plan.
But having less income doesn't mean that people like me have no place in Bitcoin. The beauty of Bitcoin is that it's open for everyone. There are billions of people in the world who are not in banking system due to various reasons and Bitcoin allows all such people to have there bank account where they have complete control over there money.  
Having said that I do agree that the person having $5k income per month can have 5 BTC in next 10 years. One thing I should add is that we dont know what Bitcoin price will be in coming months. What we have seen so far is that there are dip's after every ATH. In Nov 2021 we saw an ATH of around $67K but then few months later we saw Bitcoin going down below $20k. So if someone is accumulating Bitcoins by investing $5k monthly into Bitcoin then he might end up getting more then 5 Bitcoins after 10 years if Bitcoin keep taking big dips.  
215  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge on: March 16, 2024, 07:00:56 AM
I haven't had a chance to work out for a long time, thanks to this thread I'm back. The bull run in the market feels good too. I continue to do 100 push-ups, not every day, but every other day and let the muscles regenerate.
Don't just focus on upper body and skip leg day btw, you know the biggest muscles of the body are in your legs. Smiley

Those who haven't done workout for long time like me should not go for high number of push-ups straight away. Start with less number of push-ups unless you feel that your muscles are regenerated for high number of Push-Ups.
If you focus on upper body and ignore lower part then you have a posture where your upper part if heavy while legs are thin and that posture looks quite ugly. So one must follow a balance approach for whole body.
Bull run and work combo is best.
216  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 15, 2024, 04:19:10 PM
Haha after 92 overs, finally some spicy stuff. Please need more of this drama and ffs manufacture some fight. After all, match is on the line lol

For context, there was a potential collapse (between bowler Shoriful Islam and striker Wellalage) but sadly it was a poorly written script so no controversial runout. At least a few words were exchanged.  Wink

Bangladesh are playing cricket for quite a while now and there performance is still slightly better then an associate team. They are always ready to create drama, remember there legend Shakib getting Mathews out using timed out rule that was never used before. Sri Lanka have nothing much to worry about as this game is very much in there control, need 13 runs in 24 balls.

217  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: March 15, 2024, 04:11:20 PM
Afghanistan vs Ireland

First T20 match between Afghanistan and Ireland today Afghanistan and Ireland played ODI series and Test series earlier. In the ODI series Afghanistan defeated Ireland to win the series but in the Test series, Ireland defeated Afghanistan to win the series. The T20 series between these two teams is starting from today. Afghanistan has a majority of players who have played in various T20 franchise leagues which gives them a lot of experience. However, one batsman in the Ireland team who has been performing quite well recently is Harry Tector. Maybe today the fight between these two teams will be equal.

The match is underway. Afghanistan won the toss and decided to bowl first and its not a surprising. In UAE, any team that won the toss decide to bowl first to take advantage of dew that comes down at later part of the game. In UAE, the team winning the toss also wins the match. Ireland so far have a good start of the game as they have scored 19 runs in first 2 overs without losing any wicket.
218  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: March 15, 2024, 04:03:04 PM
After Sri Lanka lost three batsmen for 43 runs I thought Bangladesh team will win today's match too. But with Pathum Nissanka and Asalanka's excellent batting, the match is now completely under Sri Lanka's control.

At the end of 41 overs, Sri Lanka collected 251 runs with the loss of 5 wickets. Sri Lanka needs to collect only 36 runs from 54 balls to win. It is not a very difficult task. If the batsmen can stay at the crease, Sri Lanka will easily win today's match. Pathum Nissanka returned to the dressing room with 114 runs and Asalanka had 91 runs. Besides, no other Sri Lankan batsman can bat so well. These two batsmen changed the entire scenario of the match today.

We haven't seen better bowling from Taijul today. Taijul gave 32 runs in 4 overs, but could not take a single wicket. If Taijul could bowl well, maybe Bangladesh would have been able to win today's match. Taskin and Shariful are bowling very well today.

Sri Lanka were 3 for 43 and the forth wicket went down at 228. Pathum Nissanka scored 114 runs but Charith Asalanka was unlucky to miss century by just 9 runs. Sri Lanka at the moment in comfortable position as they need 31 more runs in 44 balls and still have 4 wickets in hand. With this win the series will be levelled and third ODI will decide fate of this series. Bangladesh team has given a decent target but there bowling is not much effective today.

219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2024, 03:15:37 AM
For one, this thread is about bitcoin and not shitcoins, and secondly, DCA does not work with shitcoins because they are not long term investments that have any fundamental and/or long term value.

DCA tends to apply quite well for bitcoin and/or long term investments bacuase it allows you to build your position over many years 4-10 years or longer.

Shit coins are equivalent to gambling and gambling is for losers. One can invest few bucks in shitcoins for fun but real focus and most of your capital should be going to Bitcoin alone.
One thing to note about DCA is that it's not for people with low patience as it takes years to build a profitable portfolio with DCA. So anyone coming to DCA should keep in mind that it will takes years not months.     

Of course, if you are still in your accumulation stage, you can supplement your accumulation with buying on dips and also lump sum investing, and so only you can figure out which accumulation methods to apply and when you might consider yourself to no longer be in accumulation stage... and yeah, a lot of newbies might have chances to build their investment into bitcoin over 4-10 years or longer, and they likely end up selling too much too soon and then likely putting themselves into a worse place than if they had just focused on accumulating through the varying buying techniques rather than selling, trading and/or gambling with their investment.. in such a great and powerful (and option providing) asset, such as bitcoin.

We can relate with this with current bull run where people are selling too early. It's not a success that you buy at 60k and sell on 70k since this will give you only a limited profit. One must have a plan where he must gather bitcoins before he start thinking to sell some of his holdings. How many Bitcoins are sufficent is a subjective question. So some people 100 Bitcoins are low while for many getting even 1 bitcoin is difficult.
220  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge on: March 13, 2024, 07:06:37 AM
You are very right in saying that quantity of push-ups are very low. The reason is, consider me as a guy who hasn't done push-ups or HIIT workouts for many years and for this reason my muscles are sleeping in comfort zone. I am giving three days time to my muscles to wake up and move out of comfort zone. I am happy that I have done 10 push-ups yesterday and today. From day after tomorrow I will increase my push-up quantity, perhaps 2 sets of 10 push-ups for first two days followed by 3 sets of 10 push-ups. Once my muscles are activated, I am sure I will increase that rate further.

Everyone of us is in different Hypo w.r.t push-ups. I consider myself at very early stage and need to activate my muscles first to gather push-ups on daily basis.   

Thanks JJG for this valuable suggestion of executing push-ups in sets. One set followed by another with some gap will help in getting to target of 100 push-ups per day.


In line with seeing a good result physically, I would suggest you should walk or jog at least one or two kilometers per day as a cardio exercise to increase your stamina so you can do more push ups and reps in the next coming days. I don't know if you're tight with schedules, but once you've done it straight for 1 week, you'll surely get used to it. But hey, you need to increase the number of push ups everyday so your body get used to it and will increase your arm strength and capacity to do more reps.
It will be very nice to see a good results with your body as well as seeing good results in your bitcoin holdings. Nothing is more exciting seeing these kinds of improvements.

I am not tight with my schedule rather I am lazy to get out of my comfort zone. Luckily I hit upon this thread to figure out where I am standing right now. Reading other people work out routine is motivating me to start doing physical work out regularly, if others can do it why not I can do that. I am happy that I have executed what I planned for first three days and today is my forth day, so I will be doing 2 sets each of 15 Push-Ups. I can feel pain in my muscles which was very much expected and I am fully geared up for today's Push-Ups plan. Will post update soon about today's progress.   


10 March 2024 (Day 1) - 10 Push-Ups (Done)

11 March 2024 (Day 2) - 10 Push-Ups (Done) Edit.
12 March 2024 (Day 3) - 10 Push-Ups (Done)  Edit.
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