GBTC shares have a close relationship with the BIT Investment. The relationship between bitcoin markets and the way the BIT Investment functions provide a novel interaction. If you'd like to understand or follow the BIT Investment more closely, here is some more information and links. Thank you, Sitarow, for collecting this up. An example of why a broader understanding may be helpful. If we observe the BIT make large-volume purchases of bitcoins in the coming days (5/10/15), we will have indication that BIT Sellers today are likely reinvesting their profits. Without further ado, the summary: What is the
http://www.bitcointrust.co/
BIT INVESTMENT DETAILS
INVESTMENT MINIMUM:
$25,000
INVESTOR QUALIFICATION:
Accredited investor
ANNUAL ADMINISTRATIVE AND SAFEKEEPING FEE:
2.0%
Fact Sheet http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdfBitcointalk BIT information and discussion can be found here. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0P.S. Read the DISCLAIMERS: This product represents a speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment. Any offering or solicitation will be made only to qualified accredited investors pursuant to a formal offering with additional documentation, all of which should be read in their entirety. Information provided about the Bitcoin Investment Trust (the “BIT”) is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as investment, tax or legal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, an interest in the BIT. Any offer or solicitation of an investment in the BIT may be made only by delivery of the BIT’s confidential offering documents to qualified accredited investors. You should rely solely on such offering documents in making any investment decision. An investment in the BIT is not suitable for all investors. The BIT is a private, unregistered investment vehicle and NOT subject to the same regulatory requirements as exchange traded funds or mutual funds, including the requirement to provide certain periodic and standardized pricing and valuation information to investors. There are substantial risks in investing in the BIT. You should note carefully the following:
The BIT represents a speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his/her investment. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment in the BIT.
An investment in the BIT should be discretionary capital set aside strictly for speculative purposes.
An investment in the BIT is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified accredited investors may invest in the BIT.
The BIT’s offering documents have not been reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators.
An investment in the BIT will be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in the BIT. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in the BIT and none may develop.
The BIT has limited operating history or performance.
The BIT’s sponsor has total authority over the BIT.
The BIT and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be fully disclosed to investors.
The BIT may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully, and may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.
The BIT’s fees and expenses−which may be substantial regardless of any positive return− will offset the BIT’s trading profits.
The BIT and its managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.
The above summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in the BIT and is subject to the more complete disclosures contained in the BIT’s confidential offering documents, which must be reviewed carefully.
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30 minutes since posted, not appearing in the new section, and unable to re-post. If someone is motivated to steal the content and re-post, that's cool with me. I don't care about having my name attached, I care about advancing the idea and attempting to tamp down the hostilities with a data-oriented path forward. Maybe this is reddit's way of telling me it was not such a good idea :-) |
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I just put something together on Reddit with a goal of coming up with a constructive path forward to helping advance the blockchain debate. I care more that constructive progress is made, than how it is done. So what you see is merely one suggested path forward. It might be rejected out of hand, or it may have some merit and after Refiners have a field day with it, we would have an exciting experiment to watch. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3573iy/a_proposal_to_safely_and_constructively_advance/ |
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there are more important news in it, that ItBit Nets $25 Million, Launches NYDFS-Approved Bitcoin Exchangethis means mass adoption is near. I expect the first NYDFS approval would not occur until their finalized path forward for BitLicense, whatever it may be, is clear. With a first exchange approved, subsequent ones should be less of an issue. I'd love to see COIN get its big announcement in the next few weeks. Coinbase will also have some 'splainin' to do if they are not able to get NYDFS approval in short order. |
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30K dump moves price down ~$5?? Now I see shorts are up to 30K on BFX. Bears be runnin out of coinz to dump. At this point all they are doing is providing support when/if they cover. I don't know if All week hands have been shaken out, but certainly more have been than yesterday. Bear market running out of steam.
I don't know if everyone noticed but the buy support was there before the dump yesterday. Now it is stronger now than I can remember in a long time. If it is real it could be a fun couple of days. What is unclear to me about the BFX situation this ... There was never really a high volume dump, it was an error on BFX's side that caused the volume spike . They appear to have rolled back trades caused by their errors (redditors saying their account balances back to normal), but shorts have climbed. Does this imply that some people were trading at this time and opened new shorts *thinking* the dump was real ?? And that these trades stand?? If the shorting stats are up over the period, then I think the answer is "yes" That would be a bit painful and might help explain the healthy bidside too I'd also be pretty pissed at BFX if they spoofed me into a short last night  If not directly affected by the error, I expect the trades will stand. There is no concept of a 'rollback' anymore. The markets are interconnected with bots employing multiple strategies. The instant the error occurred, fallout reverberated through the entire trading market. An implicit requirement of trading on any exchange is that one is vulnerable to all factors which may affect its price, whether real, imagined, localized, or systemic. This kind of bug is exactly why Bitfinex needed to be upgrading their system, in my opinion. It is unfortunate they didn't make it through the migration without causing a confidence-damaging event. Amidst that, it's encouraging that they have upped their public communication efforts and made things right, swiftly, to those investors directly affected. |
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I just scanned the reddit threads. Interested to me that most of the complaints are from people with low volume accounts. (5-6 BTC) I guess it makes sense that the big players would not be posting on Reddit.
They would be more prone to going bankrupt from the error than a larger holder. It appears that the BTC and USD streams crossed. If I hold 5,000 BTC, my position will be affected less if my 0.23 BTC buy for $234.99 changes to a 234.99 BTC buy at $0.23. The large stakeholders would not be bankrupted, but would serve as 'go fully long/short at current prices'. They'd know an issue occurred, and be able to have it cleaned up without it totally stopping their trading in the interim. Small stakeholders may have gone from a 0.4 BTC account, to owing $17,000. Their wheel will squeak more. Crossed streams?!?! That sounds like the first thing you make sure never happens. These exchanges are like sausages. The more you know about them, the less you like them. Ok, I think I'm done ranting. They should have done better testing. This is purely speculating based on my time as a Software Engineer, and the kinds of problems that typically happen in these scenarios. We know they have been integrating behind the scenes with the more scalable alphapoint engine. They have communicated in the past that they were going to use both streams for awhile as an audit of sorts, and then cross over to the new platform. Along with scalability, another listed reason was the robustness, quality of the replaced code. But you still need to port a legacy system to a new one. That requires new, translation code. I am guessing an easily-overlooked copy error occurred, nested within a conditional statement only triggered by whatever obscure market event initiated it. Or, they had just completed an incomplete set of tests, threw new code to live, and chaos immediately ensued because their test set did not include the case that the market data had. Most of the time in retrospective (when it IS this kind of error), the culprit is one of two things: -Failing to plan for an impossible event that is very, very possible. -Penny-wise-pound-foolish lazy variable naming in 'temporary' or 'boilerplate' code. i.e. you need to copy btc (a) and usd (b) values from stream1 to stream2. So someone writes the 'temporary' code s1.a = s2.a s1.b = s2.b and above they assigned A and B correctly (but poorly named) for one stream, and the opposite for the other, not caught by our first little conscious filter, because with names like A and B the cognitive dissonance never occurs when writing the assignment. TL;DR - I'm hopeful this is an unfortunate but necessary risk that is occasionally realized when migrating legacy systems to new and improved systems. Improved validation and testing practices will hopefully be applied and communicated outwardly as a result of this error. |
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I just scanned the reddit threads. Interested to me that most of the complaints are from people with low volume accounts. (5-6 BTC) I guess it makes sense that the big players would not be posting on Reddit.
They would be more prone to going bankrupt from the error than a larger holder. It appears that the BTC and USD streams crossed. If I hold 5,000 BTC, my position will be affected less if my 0.23 BTC buy for $234.99 changes to a 234.99 BTC buy at $0.23. The large stakeholders would not be bankrupted, but would serve as 'go fully long/short at current prices'. They'd know an issue occurred, and be able to have it cleaned up without it totally stopping their trading in the interim. Small stakeholders may have gone from a 0.4 BTC account, to owing $17,000. Their wheel will squeak more. |
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https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/353yu8/bitfinex_having_serious_lag_issues_be_very/zanetackett has posted from Bitfinex: "Hey everyone, The issue has been fixed. We're looking into exactly what happened now and I'll be sure to post a detailed explanation in the future. Please don't hesitate to reach out to me with any problems that this may have caused you and I'll try to get it fixed asap. Sorry for the inconvenience." ....... "We know what the problem was; while integrating Alphapoint our margin check system was disabled for a period of time. Now we need to get the exact details of why this happened."
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How did GBTC react to the dump? Could they be added to chartbuddy? We need to know the REAL price for BTC. Why can´t i find their REAL price on any other exchange? Could somebody please explain again? I don´t understand!  GBTC data from OTCQX page at end of each day:
Date day's price range day's volume
---------------+----------------------+-------------
2015-05-04 37.98 -- 42.00 765
2015-05-05 55.00 -- 94.86 435
2015-05-06 N/A -- N/A 125
According to a post on the SecondMarket Observer thread, when OTCQX updates the GBTC quote page, it ignores any trades smaller than 100 shares (10 BTC). That is why the daily price range for today is shown as "N/A--N/A" ("not available") even though 125 shares were traded today. Also, OTCQX has the same working hours as NYSE. I don't think one can get better data from other sources; they can only get it from OTCQX. Paying clients of OTCQX apparently have access to the trade log; perhaps someone can find some such client who would leak some hints... EDIT: by the way, OTCQX is not like an ordinary stock or bitcoin exchange. They seem to be more like a central database that collects and merges information from registered brokers; it is the brokers who keep the client's shares and execute the trades. Right? The bloomberg feed seems to display the complete dataset. I don't have access to this, but saw a screenshot in this thread a few days back which showed the various, small Asks I had set which were not visible elsewhere. I sold 60 shares today at $65. Depending on which view you look at, that is either displayed or not. This will all be moot when <100-share orders become noise. It is unfortunate that in the bootstrap phase, over-generalized outlier rules remove much-needed visibility into whatever market activity does exist. The most notable two events, in my mind, for the day were the utter lack of volume (no new BIT sellers), and a significant increase in the volume of Bids at $65. The amount increased as the day went on. That said, in 3 days we have _not_ exploded upwards. It would take a single 1000 share seller to put the 50000 share Maxim order at $35 to the top of the list. I played it safe, took the 50% gain with most of my remaining stake, and called it a day. Continuing to watch with interest. |
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I believe the Bitfinex owner occasionally appears on the Whaleclub Teamspeak channel.
(They moved addresses, don't have the link anymore.)
It's possible the folks over there have a clearer picture of what is going on.
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There is a thread in reddit with multiple reports of Bitfinex users watching a malfunction occur, with massive long and short orders which they did not issue, and far exceeding the size of their account. It is being rapidly downvoted, and reddit is lagged. http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/353yu8/bitfinex_having_serious_lag_issues_be_very/If confirmed, I think there will be a bit of a holding pattern in the market until Bitfinex announces how they are going to clean up the mess. |
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WSJ seems to have a better chart than the others; the question still remains though, how come and GBTC hits higher and higher and the others are hovering at almost half price...  http://quotes.wsj.com/GBTCVolume was at least 152. The OTC reporting rools paired with microscopic liquidity makes it real tough to get an accurate read of the prices throughout the day. The 60 shares I sold at $65 today were not reflected in the historical data based on their size. Interesting that, at market close, there are no GBTC quotes visible on the Bid or Ask side, except for $24 and $299.95. If Maxim really keeps their Bid pulled, I fear we will find equilibrium lower. I'm rather surprised that days 2 and 3 both failed to pull a new seller out of the woodwork at 250%+ premiums. The GBTC book updated, and all the orders present throughout the day remain. Must have been (another) data glitch as the day's data crossed over or synchronized. http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quoteI am pleased that at end of day, it properly reflects the $65 sales which executed. |
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WSJ seems to have a better chart than the others; the question still remains though, how come and GBTC hits higher and higher and the others are hovering at almost half price... http://quotes.wsj.com/GBTCVolume was at least 152. The OTC reporting rools paired with microscopic liquidity makes it real tough to get an accurate read of the prices throughout the day. The 60 shares I sold at $65 today were not reflected in the historical data based on their size. Interesting that, at market close, there are no GBTC quotes visible on the Bid or Ask side, except for $24 and $299.95. If Maxim really keeps their Bid pulled, I fear we will find equilibrium lower. I'm rather surprised that days 2 and 3 both failed to pull a new seller out of the woodwork at 250%+ premiums. |
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I SS'ed the $95 sale. If they are mathematically outliers or volume is low enough they may not appear in price history, because OTC. I can absolutely confirm we did not fill any Asks at or above $133.7 today  |
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So much joy from this news. |
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I was just thinking... like, if everyone in the world wanted to have just one Bitcoin, how much would my bitcoin be worth?
if everyone in the world wanted just one bitcoin, how many would you want? Please tell me that really, you're a whale who sold your 100k coins in the 800-1000 range and have decided to buy back a couple of hundred k. lol no, small fish always have been, Mostly a hodler, I day trade with small amounts, I did sell and buy back during the bubble / crash. so far i've done pretty good trades, but damn i never thought it would go this low... its as if no one really cares about bitcoin anymore. the fad is over. bitcoin is dead. What happened to your shouts for 32,000 dollar coins Adam man? Your pessimism disappoints me. You're supposed to be one of the uber positive guys leading us to the moon. Where is that adam? Zoom in. |
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I was just thinking... like, if everyone in the world wanted to have just one Bitcoin, how much would my bitcoin be worth?
if everyone in the world wanted just one bitcoin, how many would you want? Please tell me that really, you're a whale who sold your 100k coins in the 800-1000 range and have decided to buy back a couple of hundred k. Nah - adamstgBit is Satoshi  |
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