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2001  Economy / Speculation / Re: The reasons why bitcoin may go 50% this year ! on: February 05, 2020, 01:34:20 PM
Halving 2016: bitcoin went up >400% in 12 months
Halving 2012: bitcoin went up 13000% in 6 months

So it's easy to predict bitcoin will go up.

Right you are! That's how a deflationary currency/asset should work. After each halving, bitcoin's block reward decreases by half while the effort remains same. So the price is destined to go up. Just imagine the sitiation below,

Earlier you used to produce 5 loaf of breads by spending 1 dollar to sell it for 5 dollars which essentially means that each bread costs 1 dollar at market. Now due to technical limitations, you can only produce 2.5 loaf of breads by spending 1 dollar. But you need to maintain the profitability so the price of each bread automatically goes up to 2 dollars. It's the same concept!

Bread goes stale after some days, most of the bread demand needs to be fresh baked. Bitcoin doesn't lose value overtime, produced coins can be resold indefinitely. The market is the source of most bitcoins, 18 out of 21 millions are already made, new coins are a minuscule part of the equation, and thanks to halvings they make for less and less which also tends to stabilize the price.

The next 3 million will take a hundred years, and the largest part of those will be minted in the next few years. Indeed bitcoin production quickly loses its weight. Rather than bread bitcoins is like Deloreans (or some other limited production good), most where made in the early 80ies but no one is making them anymore. Take a look at the prices of these and you will notice a curious pattern repeating...

Most people buying bitcoin are going to get them from the market, not fresh, and this number will approach 100% with time in an identical logarithmic pattern.

There are assets like oil where production still weights more, but you have to take a look at other things that are not being made anymore. If we follow OP's reference, the "increase", should be less than 400%. If the first was 13000%, the second was 400%, then the next could be... 50%? Sounds about right.
2002  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Money System Worked? on: February 05, 2020, 05:27:23 AM
in the sense of counterfeiting, yes. there are other considerations, however. for example, if quantum computers were to break ECDSA tomorrow, it would irreparably harm bitcoin. gold is not vulnerable to such cryptographic vulnerabilities nor power grid/internet failures. in those senses, gold is more secure.
technical sidenote. dont worry about quantum
it will never break ecdsa by tomorrow. it will just reduce brute forcing to be from millions of years to thousands of years.

i don't expect QC to break bitcoin tomorrow, but i also think depending on current extrapolations of quantum computing progress is illogical. we fundamentally cannot know if/when huge technological leaps will occur in this field. even if we ignore that fact, reasonable extrapolations say ECDSA will be broken during the current decade. https://medium.com/@nopara73/stealing-satoshis-bitcoins-cc4d57919a2b

even if these threats are purely theoretical, they are threats that could never apply to the security of gold. that's the point i was making above.

Bitcoin can be improved before that ever becomes an issue, and there are proposals to make it even more resistant. Eventually, when everyone has quantum computing capabilities, we could even migrate to a quantum crypto algorithm.

Do pay attention to the other thread that reminded us of the time when possession of gold was illegal in the USA (1933~1974).
2003  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: PSA: If gold were illegal... (Gold WAS illegal!) on: February 05, 2020, 05:11:35 AM
Banned for more or less 41 years.. While it's really not unlikely for something similar to happen to bitcoin, imagine when it happens. I'm not entirely sure what happened in the past, but is it probably safe to assume that a decent number of people(but definitely not that much) would be on the streets and sort of protest? Things like this are far easier to organize right now due to the internet and social media existing. What do you think?

Yet another reason why bitcoin is better than gold, it cannot be seized (when handled properly). This tragic example once again demonstrates how the State becomes oppressor of their own people. I bet more than one American buried their gold and had to wait all these years before ever seeing it again. And there was probably a black market too...

This was simply a case of a gov seizing people's wealth. Never underestimate politicians stupidity, just one more reason why fiat is so dangerous, it is in control of them. Gold is a type wealth not in control of the State, and knows no borders.
2004  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Coronavirus Hoax on: February 05, 2020, 04:19:16 AM
I know a sham when I see one.  The Media Industry is putting a lot of effort into this one in order to sell more papers.  I wonder if they're using this for another cover-up as well

And you are going to travel to Wuhan and stream live to back this up right? Right!?

Yes the media is doing what the media always does, inflate things to sell more. That doesn't mean there is no virus or tens of thousands of people infected and hundreds deceased. So far it looks like China has contained it mostly within their borders, but the danger exists and its real, if any of the receiving countries make a mistake, it can spiral out of control. It is serious.
2005  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Win a Presidential plane... on: February 05, 2020, 03:52:54 AM
this is how simple Mexican president is,he may want to use ordinary plane when traveling than using own Plane for the benefits of His countrymen .

imagine while almost all of the president in the world wanted to have own plane but this one wanted to sell his?salute for you .



but about the raffle?i think low class people will have second thoughts of buying raffle ticket because how can they afford to maintain that kind of luxurious thing if they gonna win.

This is absolute madness and makes no sense at all. I can understand auctioning, but raffle? Most normal people would get in serious trouble real quickly even if someone were to gave them the plane for free. Maintenance fees, parking fees, paying a fortune to someone to move it or pilot it, etc. There is only a few rich elite in the world that could actually do this, or airline companies.

Besides this is the type of politician that would sell the plane only to buy a new one later. I'd say its just a publicity stunt, trying to gain popularity over ignorance.

Turns out most presidents have a private plane because it ends up CHEAPER than using commercial airliners. Not only they have to move their (often large) delegations around, they also cannot be delayed or be fighting for seats and company timetables, availability, etc. He would end chartering (which is like renting a limo vs owning a car).

Also remember than in most cases the presidential plane belongs to the country, very often the Air Force, it is NOT the president's property and shouldn't be seen as such. Whoever succeeds him would likely use it, so its more like selling a national asset. He might as well order selling a couple fighter jets instead... Not sure how the Mexican system works or if the legislative branch has anything to say about it, but its probably presidential for him to be disposing of things that don't belong to him in the first place.

Most countries in Latin-America have this cursed political system where the president has way too much power, and when a "populist" get into power, all hell breaks lose (and can end like my country with the worst hyperinflation).
2006  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Online gambling on real gaming equipment: Testing technology on: February 05, 2020, 03:17:28 AM
As I understand it, your idea is similar to an online casino when using web cameras. The idea itself is interesting, but in my opinion it is now quite outdated.
Now you need to move towards virtual reality technologies and create a casino using augmented reality or a fully functional virtual reality casino with the widest possible action functionality.

You are right, we use webcams, but the method of transmitting a signal to a gambler is different from what others used. That is why we need to test technology from different countries. In addition, you need to check the method of remote control of gaming equipment.

P.S. Thanks everyone for the feedback! In the coming days, we will translate the site into English and open registration for the whole world. Thank you for the advice!

Well i can see some appeal to this, but i'm wondering: If you have 100 players wanting to play slots, does it mean you have to have 100 slot machines with 100 web cams for each? What if 1000 want to play concurrently? I see a scalability issue here, and i don't think your players would like doing virtual queues.

Of course some games like roulette can be shared among many players but you have other type of games where you will run into this problem (and i bet maintenance of the machines will be the same as a physical casino).

2007  Other / Off-topic / Re: Society on: February 05, 2020, 02:20:16 AM
What you people think of where the society is heading to? We are going to be slowly brainwashed by ads in ours head with the advance of neuralink? like the mt anderson book feed. Or you see a more positive future where we finally learn how to use the internet , and have a kind of new enlightenment where people start to see the world as it is now and start to try to change it?

Obviously we are going to adblock the ads Smiley And the close you keep to open source technology, the best chances you will be able to successfully do this. Take for example Android phones, they are an ad nightmare, unless... You root it and add an adblocker. Of course rooting is difficult, and often dangerous, and they don't want you to do it.

Incidentally i do see the ads from bitcointalk, as they are correctly served from within and don't come from a third party.
2008  Other / Off-topic / Re: Why do people get credit cards loan? on: February 05, 2020, 02:05:19 AM
I don't know if you call that 'out of normal' but I am not a person who gets credit cards loans, even if my allowance is high.
Why are so many people concerned with getting credit cards loans and increasing their maximum allowance?
The maximum I have got with a credit card in once was £500 which I paid the next month. Even before paying with
the credit card, I would have only paid if I had enough money on my main account to pay the balance.

Do you run 'credit card schemes' where you get a £5k loan with a bank, move to another bank and get other £6k to
pay your previous loan, move to another bank and get other £10k to pay your previous loan, etc. ?  

Oh yes i remember things like that back when we could use credit cards. Some people did what you describe, while others simply used them without any need ie. pay everything with credit card and clear the debt immediately the next day, to show a "pristine record".

Back then you could even pay in advance to bypass the maximum. There was no practical maximum if you overpaid the thing in advance, we used to do this as well, since the starting limits were so low and credit card was the only type of "electronic money" you could use online. Thankfully we now have bitcoin, and those idiotic bank limits matter no more. It also happens that credit cards stopped operating in this country, for various reasons.

ie. you want to buy something £1000, but your limit is £500, and currently have zero debt, you go into your bank and "pay" £1000 to your credit card), then you could spend £1000 with that card once; repeat as needed).

Last they "worked" my "gold" and "platinum" credit cards had a purchasing power equivalent to 1 satoshi (the magic of hyperinflation), and our gov forbade the prepaying thing so they became useless even before Trump ordered all American companies out from this country.

Of course its not "free money", you are paying extra fees to the bank and credit card companies than if you did not use them. And they love slaving you to pay their monthly interest if you can't afford to clear the debt immediately... Using the credit card for credit is dumb in my opinion, unless its an emergency.
2009  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years on: February 05, 2020, 01:41:07 AM
If you had been dedicated enough since release, then ROI would surely be high. But if you have invested right before the peak of 2017's bubble, you would have lost more than you could have gained.

Basically, investing regular amounts on regular intervals is what cost-averaging is all about. It does lessen the risk of losses and has high probability of gaining, but it still depends on the time and price trend upon your entry.

This is not entirely true, you never lose unless you sell. The problem is, are you willing to wait whatever it takes? Because if you invest money that can be "lost" or "frozen", ie. long term investment, you probably has no issues waiting years or decades. Of course that only works with your own money, not talking about margin trading.

Buying a little bit everyday simply spread things out. Long term bitcoin price goes up, so yes it should work fine. Even if you bought a few coins at nearly 19k most would have been bought 3k~12k prices the following years anyway.

If you are in for the long term, the price is nearly irrelevant. Bitcoin excels for long term savings. Fluctuations beyond its "natural" market price don't last long anyway, so most the time you would be buying at fair price, sometimes you will get expensive but also sometimes cheap, i guess they average in the end.
2010  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 2020 the year of Bitcoin technology getting accepted by governments on: February 05, 2020, 01:23:45 AM
The funny thing though, is that "government" and "transparent" mostly doesn't go well together. If anything, transparency is probably the last thing they had in mind if they were to create their own digital money. Instead, it's most probably for surveillance purposes. You'd be dreaming if you think the government wanted decentralization.

This is correct, and what some governments are doing is implement blockchain but not decentralization. That is, they want to ride the blockchain buzzword but not truly commit to real transparency.

If they make a voting system using blockchain, they would need to release the source code and let anyone run nodes, and the equivalent to the wallet which what would allow unique votes. Most projects using the "blockchain" word don't do this, they are kept "internal" and centralized.

Of course having projects using "blockchain" has nothing to do with accepting "Bitcoin technology", they are just cherry picking one of the components.
2011  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITCOIN HALVING 2020 on: February 05, 2020, 01:14:18 AM
Despite all the wishful thinking, there is no correlation between the halvings and the price.

There is some correlation, but its less pronounced than some people think. Furthermore, as time passes, the correlation is less and less. The main reason is that the vast majority of coins are already in the market, so production affects supply much less than ever before.

Consider that out of 21 million only the last 3 million are left. Most of the weight, and eventually the whole weight of the price of bitcoin rests solely in the market forces, buyers and sellers.
2012  Economy / Services / Re: [Open] ▄■▀■▄ 🌟Bitvest.io🌟 - Plinko Sign Camp (Member-Hero Accepted)(New2) on: February 04, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
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2013  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years on: February 04, 2020, 12:47:38 AM
This is a great idea. But I miss this opportunity. So now I am wondering where Bitcoin will go in the future. Correcting all the previous mistakes and now I have a plan for Bitcoin. Now every month I buy a few dollars worth of bitcoin. Now if I buy $ 100 worth of Bitcoin a month, how many dollars will I have after five years? Now that's how I think. Hopefully, I will get good results this time by learning from past mistakes.

It should be less than if you invested 100$ 5 years ago. 5 years ago bitcoin was like 500ish $, so of course what OP posted looks amazing, but past performance is certainly not indicative of the future. In fact, if you have paid attention, bitcoin increase in value is slowing down overtime. Yes it still goes up, but less and less.

You might be lucky and catch a bull run, but don't count on it as long term. If a bull comes it will later correct back where it should be.

Zoom out completely and look at the curve of bitcoin's price history, it is a logarithmic curve that starts nearly vertical and ends nearly horizontal. Look in history you will find this curve in things like gold...

The most earns went the the bravest early investors. You can no longer live off bitcoin as some people did back then, but you can still use it as a means of preserving value, a way to keep your savings off the hands of banks and governments; more importantly, they cannot destroy its purchasing power no matter what happens, unlike fiat.

Diversifying is good, keep spreading your investment across various things if you want peace of mind.
2014  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: Braiins OS: open-source mining firmware [S9, T1]. New release includes AsicBoost on: February 03, 2020, 05:09:53 PM
Hi all,

Hoping someone can help. Recently built and immersion cooling tank but now can't figure out how to disable fans completely.

I found some info that editing cgminer.conf and inserting "min-fans":"0" will bypass the check, which it does but then looking at the kernel log, there is now a new error.

Whilst trying to set PIC on the chains, it seems to hang there for a bit and after some time, cgminer logs an error code "no chains enabled".

This is the first I've come across this before and the miner worked prior to editing the conf and removing the fans so can only assume that this has somewhat broken the miner software.

Has anyone got this working successfully and wouldn't mind giving a step by step.

Thank you.

Perhaps you made a mistake when editing this file. You have to respect json's text formatting and be sure to not introduce unwanted invisible characters, such as windows style cr/lf end of line, perhaps there is an extra or missing , etc, pay close attention.

Also make sure to be using normal bos from June, not the testing versions.

If possible check again connecting the fans and reverting the changes in cgminer.conf (just let them spin outside the tank) to make sure the problem lies there and not elsewhere.
2015  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is Set to Become the Next Global Reserve Currency on: February 03, 2020, 02:07:18 PM
The US dollar has been the global reserve currency for the last 60 years or so. However, Russia and China are both indicating that they want to move off the US dollar system, having voiced concerns over how expensive it is, and the fact that the US weaponizes their currency on a shockingly frequent basis (see Iraq, Eritrea, Haiti, Laos, Lebanon and around 25 other countries with US imposed sanctions and embargoes). However, if we’re being realistic, we need a global reserve currency of some kind. That’s where Bitcoin comes in. Bitcoin is set to become the next global reserve currency – here’s why.

Why Bitcoin?
Bitcoin might not be a perfect currency yet, given that it’s prone to volatility and has far less liquidity than other global currencies, but it’s definitely a good option. Unlike the US dollar, Bitcoin is immune to seizure and censorship. Whether you’re an individual or an entire country, the option to resist seizure and censorship is probably of much more importance than volatility, liquidity, or adoption. Bitcoin can’t be taken away from you, unlike the US dollar.

The US will continue to weaponize the dollar, and will face increasing resistance for it. As this happens, belief in Bitcoin’s functionality as a means of bypassing seizure and censorship will grow, and we’ll see the US dollar falter as a reserve currency.

Volatility does not mean imperfection, it means freedom. True be told, bitcoin isn't really volatile, it simple fluctuates. Zoom out to see the whole graphic and you will recognize a curve, that starts nearly vertical in the beginning and becomes horizontal at the end. The curve is a logarithmic curve and is what bitcoin is following.

Bitcoin has actually been "perfect" since the beginning, but the markets didn't know better, only with time and after observing its behavior, is when more and more people understand and give it due value. Bypassing the silly US sanctions isn't probably a driving factor, as this is something some governments might find appealing but not common people, who are in turn looking for ways to bypass said governments restrictions.

Of course the USD is controlled by USA, it has never been a safe "reserve". Even if they didn't "weaponize it", the simple fact that they could destroy it if they wanted (and a very small group of people have this power) makes it a very poor choice. This is in fact true for all fiat, and many altcoins. Traditionally reserves were held in precious metals for that very reason. A few countries decided to use multiple fiat but this is also a poor choice, as you can always loose a part of them by diversifying you do limit loses but still loses can occur, and you don't want loses at all in your reserves (savings/hold).
2016  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Shanghai Stock Market down 8% - Bitcoin’s On-chain Transaction Volume up by 45% on: February 03, 2020, 01:55:28 PM
[Xangle Briefing] Shanghai Stock Market down by 8% while Bitcoin’s 7-Day On-chain Transaction Volume is up by 45%
- 2.74 million new wallets within the last 7 days
- Investors should watch for impact of January’s economic indexes like the ISM Manufacturing Index

According to the crypto disclosure platform Xangle, Bitcoin’s 7-day on-chain transaction volume has increased by 44.29% to $71.5B USD, and Ethereum’s volume increased by 35.45% to $1.7B USD. There were 2.74M new wallets on the Bitcoin network, and 520K on Ethereum. Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 57 for greed, indicating optimism in the market.

To the contrary, due to the Coronavirus outbreak, the Shanghai stock market opened after 6 days of suspended trading to start at -8.05%. The S&P VIX index increased by 21.63% to reach the highest point since October last year, an index which indicates the level of volatility expected for the next 30 days.

Investors are cautioned to look out for the release of January’s economic indexes which could have an influence on the token prices.


When "something" happens to the economy, it is common to see investors seeking refuge in metals and bitcoin. Currently China is getting closed down due to the wuhan coronavirus outbreak, i think they extended holidays to a month and they have quarantined cities and they even built a 1000 patient hospital in 10 days.

But this virus seems to be spreading around the world, it is unfortunate but expect a bit of an uptrend due to this unforeseen event (which might add to the halving expectancy).
2017  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Beginning my pay in bitcoin on: February 02, 2020, 04:41:22 PM
Hello world,
I'm a newbie here but a somewhat seasoned bitcoin hodler. I signed up for bitwage and will begin recieving my pay in 50% BTC and 50% in usd. I figure il keep it like this for the next year. How many people here use them as a way of automating you btc buys? For the last year I've been using exchanges and il say forsure picking opportunities to buy is successful, such as the 6k levels buying. But I was curious if anyone else uses the service?

I am not using bitwage and I have no idea how it works. I am glad you post it here and I think I am going to check it out.  But I do suggest if you want to know how many are using the services then you should make some pool in this forum so you can have an idea as to how many people are using it.  Well I guess you should start doing a pool sooner so your curiosity will be answered.

Its just another freelancer site. I signed there ages ago but as usual, too few job offers. In my case i cannot accept USD (no easy or cheap or safe way to get them) so it has to be 100% bitcoin. Then i can exchange only whats needed into fiat but only the day its going to be spent.
2018  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Change mainstream media's perception on "Bitcoin being used by thieves" on: February 02, 2020, 04:29:36 PM
The best we can do is to give it time to prove them wrong, they will face reality. The piece of eight, considered as the currency used by maritime piracy, was finally used internationally by colonies. If I'm correct even the US dollar comes from it, hence the name 'dollar'.

In the beginning, they said Btc is a gadget but now it can challenge institutions they started to see it differently. A problem is Bitcoin is misunderstood from the mass, but it can change the whole economy, it's only a matter to change the mentalities. People believe in capitalism, Bitcoin can make them believe in humanity.

From "In God, we trust" they will change to "In code, we trust" and the media outlet will follow the trend.


Yes, at the very least the $ comes from the s in PS (from Pesos), and lets not forget those coins were made of actual precious metals (ie. Gold). It probably didn't help that the "golden" age of piracy coincided with the peak of the Spanish empire, looting the Americas and establishing colonies worldwide, until they were eclipsed by the British.

Piece of eight was an interesting name used by English speakers, that's not its name in Spanish.

If anything the USD should be the current preferred money by criminals, since its more or less accepted anywhere, and the farther you use it from the USA (as in diplomatic relations, not physical distance) the less checks origin of funds will have.

I agree with "In code with trust". The USD has that God phrase, however the few humans that control can destroy it. As long as they keep that power, they will keep everyone hostage. Its like they using God as scapegoat for any of their wrongdoings.

Alternative is that longer phrase in that bitcoin 3d rendering: "In cryptography we trust". Well officially the word should be "Trustless" but that needs explaining. "Its a coin that no gov, bank, group or individual can destroy, get it?"
2019  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Money System Worked? on: February 02, 2020, 02:43:58 PM
I know this is not exactly in relation to Bitcoin. I may be in the wrong forum.
Considering with all the failures of the money systems in the past. That only benefit the government and wealthy.
I know there were systems that did benefit the people. At least were more systems that offered a fairer playing field. I know those systems did get shot down by the "powers that be"

What systems, would you all know of, that did work or could have worked better in the past? More less the non digital era of anything more less?

The closest that worked were precious metal based coins. Not bank notes with the promise of the precious metals, but when the coins were actually made from the very precious metals.

In other words, things like gold and silver. Because no matter what is engraved in them, you could always melt them.

But the physical realm is not immune to scam. Suppose you have 100 gram coins, someone could start "chipping" them so they each lose 1 gr, after chipping 100 coins you get 1 "free" coin right? actually you just stole that from others. Sometimes they add back the lost gram but using a cheaper metal, and sometimes the practice was done by the State. Indeed in the Roman empire it was done that way

This cannot be done in the digital world, not with something as secure as bitcoin, where every little satoshi is accounted for. With physical coins you would have to carefully check each coin, this is unscalable and unpractical. If if you get a "certificate", you its different than trusting a bank "to keep it stored...". You trust whoever certified it, and besides the physical good could always be tampered with after certification.

Therefore Bitcoin is more secure than gold.

But in the event that you have an artificially honest society that would absolutely never tamper with your gold coins, then yes.

Gold production is not controlled by the government and is worldwide recognized (by weight). Your country might collapse and the gold keeps its purchasing power, unlike fiat. But its physical, it can be found, seized, tampered... keeping it protected costs money, and its heavy too!

As for successful monetary systems, the key difference is removing the government from the equation. You could look at countries that use another country money without their permission (such as many countries using the USD). In those they moved their local control to foreign control, but the risk is too high, should the USD collapse they would collapse too. But until that happens, they in their territory can experience handling a money their own local politicians can't manipulate. If their budget doesn't fit, they cannot print more to cover it, they have to reduce expenses etc (transparency).

Pegging doesn't work because its a promise they almost always break, because they can. That is the point, CAN or CANNOT do. CAN your gov. make you poor overnight or not?
2020  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 100 Days Left before Bitcoin to be more Scarce on: February 02, 2020, 01:56:00 PM
Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?
I'm wondering that myself.  And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined.  I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.

But hell yeah, upcoming halving!  I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings.  I'm curious to see what happens in any event.

Scarcity will depend on the market, not production. Production has smoothly been slowing in the previous halvings, but most bitcoins are already in the market so things are not changing much, except for miners that will earn less as it has occurred in the previous halvings (mining is less profitable).

For miners you could say they will learn 50%, only if the price remained the same. So If the base was 7.5k, and after halving it remained at 7.5k, then sure, 50%. But it is my opinion that the price will be something like 10k, then they will be earning 25% less than before, not 50%.

In any case production of bitcoin at this point is not the main source, the market is. People willing to part with them or not, is what decides the price in the market, and of course people willing to acquire them. Price is always the result of supply and demand, with supply being the vast majority coins that already exist (18m/21m remember?)

In the first decade of Bitcoin's life, most coins have already been produced, and now production is minuscule and is getting microscopic. It simply doesn't affect price anymore because so little are being made in mining, and even less afterwards.

Its all going according to plan, very smoothly.
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