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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2021, 11:53:00 PM
That's a nasty looking H&S...  Shocked
2102  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 12, 2021, 05:27:57 PM
For all Bitcoin fans, apparently first real atomic swap between Bitcoin and Monero happened yesterday.
https://twitter.com/rottenwheel/status/1392207894926528514

Apparently it was made by Comit team. Farcaster team is considering their April report not that far to make it happen. Thorchain team will not do a classic atomic swaps. It seems that Comit team, after it did it first on testnet, keep grinding and does not plan to let anyone else to get ahead. 
Oh boy.

This is one of those moments where something INCREDIBLY important just happened and just about no one knows.
2103  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 12, 2021, 05:05:35 PM
Any thoughts on where we go from here?

Still expecting 1000usd +?

I give less than 1% that $1000 Monero will not happen this or next year. Even if next month China and USA ban Monero it will happen since that is only a bit more then double the price from right now. It would have to happen some catastrophic event that is not yet priced in.

So you see a high profile Monero ban as a springboard for the price?

I have not settled on this issue yet...  I could also see the price suffering quite a bit in the case this happens in the short term.
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2021, 01:46:28 PM
That whole site looks like a meme.. or a joke. Probably legit since it ends with dot com.

Yeah.. the Babalon Bee is a sort of Onion-esque site, but with a libertarian, and Christian bent.  They are pretty freaking hilarious.  Might piss off the harder left leaning folks a little...

2105  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: May 10, 2021, 04:12:32 PM

1.  I love how the archive capture is still updating the payout addresses in "real time".
2.  Wait a minute.. they are showing the to and from addresses for the transactions?  lol
3.  Come now .. the name is "Fluffy van Watchennouncement"
2106  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 10, 2021, 01:33:08 PM
https://www.instagram.com/p/COLwaoPjzHY/

Yessica Ortega Gentner is Mexican MMA fighter. Never heard of her before but she is extremely sexy with her top.






https://youtu.be/mozPWr4pz2c?t=235

Paraphrasing:

Host:  So how did you end up with the Monero logo on your shirt?

Badass Yessica:
A friend told me about it, and it is something like what I do as a MMA fighter.  I fight against another person, and the cypherpunk ideals represented in Monero are fighting against the system.

cAPSLOCK:
  Daaaaaaammmmmmmmn!

I was kind of expecting.  "I don't really know what it is but someone offered my a lot of money to put it on my shirt."  I was wrong! Smiley  Donation incoming!
2107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2021, 01:20:07 PM
Labels.
I am at retirement age and in my youth I am sure people suffered from the same ailments as people do today.
Its just that today everyone seems to need a label for a particular behaviour as if by having one seems to justify said behaviour.
Meh. What do I know, I am just an old bloke on the internet (I don't have a label).

Ironic! Wink
2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 02:03:53 PM
Looks like quadruple top is forming with very high sell pressure from all the sell orders across the exchanges. This is gonna tank hard soon.

I am not sure what you mean by tank... but I agree that it's going to be hard.

The price is going to go down a lot.

You mean to be in the DOGE thread, I think... not sure.
2109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 01:58:37 PM
No more plastic drum machines ;-)
Yeah, all well and good, but now I gotta find a human to play em...  because I sure as hell can't...

find a songwriter too while you at it ... you sure as hell can't do that either

What the fuck?  Seriously.
2110  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 01:37:24 PM
Looks like quadruple top is forming with very high sell pressure from all the sell orders across the exchanges. This is gonna tank hard soon.

I am not sure what you mean by tank... but I agree that it's going to be hard.
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 01:36:41 PM
India is getting hammered by Covid-19. Situation over there is worse than the chaos what i saw in Brazil.

Absolute madness.

*nod* I'm kind of wondering what the fuck happened, could this be the result of that stupid religious holiday a month ago? If so then man, those Gods are *pissed*

People not wearing masks, and the government allowing massive crowds to gather in the name of religion so they can get votes next election. All this combined with the fact that we're low on oxygen cylinders, and hospital beds are over capacity by a huge amount

I have not met you... so I will try not to be an asshole right out of the gate.  But I find it cognitively very challenging that you can type the bolded, and also have the words: "Be decentralized, be sovryn" in your profile.

People dying from covid is certainly a difficult and challenging problem.  But my limit for where I find it acceptable for a government to deny it's people to assemble is MUCH MUCH higher than yours seemingly.

Millennial or younger?
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 01:31:51 PM


Poor Terminator. He has come at a wrong time. Bitcoin ain't cheap anymore.



You don't think so?

I think it is cheap as hell.  It cannot remain here forever, that's for sure.
2113  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 08, 2021, 12:49:26 PM
Just bought monero. I'm so gonna regret this. (that I didn't buy more)

No seriously, do you believe in the S2F model? It promises more than $15,000 by the end of 2022.


Well... just to nitpick  That graph shows it oscillating up ABOVE what the model predicts which looks more like 2k.  I would guess that oscillation would be slightly lesser...  but who knows?
2114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2021, 03:51:35 AM
No more plastic drum machines ;-)
Yeah, all well and good, but now I gotta find a human to play em...  because I sure as hell can't...

I will put drums on any song you like.  Wanna hear a sample?

Here... i was setting up a bunch of mics on this low end "too many toms" kit I have in the studio right now and wanted to hear a balance of the kit and also make sure all the toms were making it in OK which is why it's so masturbatory. Wink

https://www.sndup.net/53qm
2115  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 08, 2021, 03:07:23 AM
OK.  I am gonna post something I might have to delete because it is so crazy.

To preface I have grown weary of the sort of alt-coiner style of attack that the new Monero community has taken on.  Sounds like Roger Ver to me a little.  Hating on the Maxis... accusing blockstream of hijacking bitcoin.  Shuning the NgU culture.   Even getting ETHtard style flippening narratives up and running a little. Of course some of the points are valid.  But I miss the monero community that respected Bitcoin.

Ok... well, whatever.

That said.. I feel like I am sensing something.. some weird groundswell.  It's among the maxis.  It is starting to feel like old school bitcoinners are starting to wake up and realize that for the time being Monero is really the project that best fulfills the goals ofthe Bitcoin whitepaper.  (OK SEE?!?!?!  I sound like fucking Craig Wright all of a sudden).



I feel like there are a bunch of hardcore Maxis in a room right now all hugging and crying as they come clean with each other that they use Monero on White House Market, and would never use Bitcoin for that, and they have realized that Monero has to exist, and Bitcoin is never going to be able to achieve what it has.

Soon everyone is going to realize that Monero matters, and it is too late to stop it, just like Bitcoin.   Not only is there room for it up at the top with Bitcoin, but it HAS to be there for the world to even keep working.

Yeah...  I am losing my mind.
2116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2021, 05:07:59 PM
The next 1st world problem we're going to have is adding a few decimal places on-chain. Hopefully direly needed soon  Wink

Seems to me that a satoshi can be equal to anything between 1 and 10 cents USD currently and we would find it generally useful.  Especially since the lightning network ALREADY handles amounts to 1/1000 of a single sat.  Then, even with 10 cent satoshis we would be able to transact at the granularity of $0.0001.

1 cent sats puts us at Gold market cap, and 10 cent satoshis match us to the worlds broad fiat money.

We may never need to divide further depending on how the network evolves to be used.
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2021, 04:25:41 PM
anything too nerdy, like Finneys etc., wouldn't cut it in my dream.

The next 1st world problem we're going to have is adding a few decimal places on-chain. Hopefully direly needed soon  Wink

Finney was already attempted, ... I don't think it really got popular. Sats is universally accepted as the smallest unit, currently 0.0000 0001 BTC. In the future, it would mean the 8th digit after the decimal.

Adding more decimals, I don't know how that would technically work on-chain and if the rest of the world is going to follow. It's sort of used internally by some exchanges and gaming / gambling websites, and then rounding them.

If you really really need more decimals, there is the unpopular option of simply using a different coin or token, or work with off-chain solutions, whether that's layer 2 or even centralized services.

Banks are going to do this, maybe... then we'll see some "salami slicing" happening where no one really sees what's going on and someone has accumulated all the sats or below 1 sat unseen.

I feel it is annoying we are having so much trouble settling on how we denominate Bitcoin.  But I think it will be 100% organic.  Some wallet(s), or something will finally have enough success that people start just talking about and thinking in SATS or whatever ends up being the measure.

I gotta say though...  Satoshi was such a freaking genius.  no way he could have been so lucky.  8 decimal places, though it presents a somwhat awkward hurdle (Adam Back is right 6 decimal places are easier to grok).  But it firmly plants a very natural maximum bitcoin cap EXACTLY between the gold market cap (550k BTC), and global broad fiat (5MM Btc) with a satoshi being equal to somewhere between a penny and a dime USD.

It is pretty much perfect.
2118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2021, 04:12:28 PM
You bragging eh?
We will only get 17° on Sunday, and 5° at night.
And it's still raining by the way.
Yeah, we have April weather in May, I was hoping global warming would make it go the other way.

Nope.
We only got the downsides from GW, local thunderstorms, stronger winds and dryness.
BUT science says we are after the end of a warming cycle of the sun and global warming will likely be slowing down at least over the next 5 years.
Means more evenly distributed rain, but less windy? hmmm - not that much better anyway...

BTC recovering, time for $58k - $60k again...
#NFA


Yeah, that was pretty much predicted at least twenty years ago. The term 'global warming' was largely replaced by "climate change"* exactly because the predicted effects were that weather extremities would become more commonplace. Not everywhere will experience warmer temperatures.

So over twenty years ago, northern Europe was predicted to experience hotter drier summers, milder wetter winters and more frequent storms, for example. Which is exactly what's happening. We just had one of the driest and coldest Aprils on record, followed by the wettest first week of May on record.

[*please, let's not have another tiresome debate about whether climate change exists and/or why - that one's been done to death]

Just wondering, when btc finally breaks $70k and onwards, whether it will carry the alts with it? Or will it get the cane out of the cupboard and give them a damned good thrashing?

This is a really interesting question to me currently.  And I have almost no alts aside from monero... Decent bag of that but otherwise the alts I have are in the souvineer category...  I even have a few ETH... talk about a shitcoin.  But I guess my XMR interest feeds my alts interest.

I keep hearing people talk about "where we are in this cycle" and if it is "alt-season" or not etc.  And I have watched markets long enough to know that pretty much ALWAYS when the herd is saying things like that the end up surprised by what actually happens.  And it does not have to be SUPER different.  It can just be a little bit different this time and still leave the herd stunned.

I think some of the differences this time are:

- Institutional interest is now well underway, though it is just at the beginning
- Nations are on the horizon
- Layer 2 and sidechains exist.  They really did not last time.  We have pressure release plumbing we did not have before.

I have to admit I am surprised a little that the same damn narratives are working "The next bitcoin!", "The bitcoin killer", "MySpace", and so on.  But I should not be surprised. I expected it.  Chances are decent this is not the last time either.

But Bitcoin is being perceived by institutions correctly as the gold standard crypto.  But Joe Public sees it as expensive and wants DOGE to flip it.

So I think alts will at FIRST act like a pressure valve.  Trade your BTC to litecoin first if you want to use it to buy something.  But as BITCOIN network infrastructure starts actually being used, then that use case for alts dries up completely.  That is going to eliminate the LTC/BCH use cases entirely.

ETH will rise (perhaps a lot) because it is still the Smart Contract/Token platform.  But over time people will realize that Bitcoin can do ALL THAT on sidechains without crowding up the base layer with cryptokitties.  Boom use case destroyed.

The question is how long till the people BUILDING the second order use cases (banks, merchants) realize that the tools they will want to interact with are things like Strike rather than things like ETH?

Oh, and I can only think of a single ALT who's use case is only getting stronger and very little threat is posed by Bitcoin.  YET.  But it too might fall to side chains that inherit all it's functionality.  We are already on the way.  That alt could keep running during this bull and longer though, IMHO.  I will not name it, but it's ticker is WHM. Wink  No not really.
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2021, 03:56:07 PM
Unconfirmed transactions under 20k just now. A fair decrease compared to 1-2 weeks back.

https://mempool.space/

0.31c to get in next block

Edit: blink and you missed it though.

Actually, unconfirmed transactions are at their lowest since 8th January. Don't know if this is good or bad.

In general, the fee sizes are disgusting really.

Sooooo... what do you propose is the solution to this issue?

Blockchain does not scale the way you seem to want it to.
2120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 07, 2021, 03:53:29 PM
Yesterday I did something I have never quite done before.  I want to share it! The tools for seamless bitcoin payments are being built very quickly now.  I think it's going to turn into a bit of a blur soon.  I  bought $100 worth of bitcoin easily and 100% privately without ever touching the base layer and then sold it for USDT, and then bought the bitcoin back again.  It was really just an exercise of proof of concept for me.  I was able to offset the 1% "fee" for the trades be getting lucky to sell high and buy low. Wink  It only took a couple minutes, but here is what I did:

Using Strike I sent $100 of bitcoin to my Coinos.io wallet.  (no fee)
Sent those ~175,000 sats as L-BTC to my Sideswap wallet on my phone. (fee 113 sats which is ~$0.06)
Did a trade out to USDT (Liquid flavor).  (Sideswap charges ~1% I think)
Waited for BTC to drop a little.  Bought back the L-BTC (again 1%)

Now some comments.

Obviously I am KYC/AMLed by Strike.  But after that everything was basically invisible.  In fact all the things I did on the Liquid sidechain are done with Confidential Transactions.  It is not exactly Monero level privacy... but it is pretty damn good.  Even the federation members cannot know what I have done.  I assume Sideswap knows as they are acting as the trading partner.

I personally consider ALL of the transactions I did BITCOIN, though I know some folks would not.  But we are going to need to get used to making various tradeoffs to be able to use Bitcoin in all the ways we want to.  I have watched that Samurai dev froth on Twitter about Bisq adding Liquid and how terrible that is. Ironically he has donated to Haveno because of that and is essentially supporting Monero to shit on Liquid.  Ironic.

I get it.  But I think he is dead wrong.  He either needs to switch to BCH (lol) or even better Monero, or quit bitching.

Here is the lightbulb that went on for me a while back:

Bitcoin is trust minimized.  We have made various compromises to RETAIN the trust minimized nature of BTC.  This allows us the CHOICE (as in freedom) to make other compromises we deem acceptable for various use cases.  Using Strike means I am accepting the KYC/AML.  Using the Liquid sidechain means I am trusting the Liquid federation.  Coinos.io is a web wallet.  I am trusting them as a counterparty briefly when I move out my BITCOIN on the Liquid network.

But some of the voices yelling about how all that is "not bitcoin" etc also have a balance on some exchange.

LOL.

Everything I did above involves less trust arguably than that.  The point is we are seeing the tools being built out to do all kinds of transactions with Bitcoin.  Buying an island?  Base layer.  Buying a computer?  Liquid.  Beer?  Lightning.  Soon the wallets will just seamlessly let you make those decisions.  Imagine... you will be able to set your hotwallet on your phone to ask you warm storage account to top it off as needed.

I have been saying it for a while... And I know it makes the Bcash folks froth a little... but Blockstream is onto something with Liquid.
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