I think Marty and Matt of TFTC (as well as others) have been doing a great job pushing the "Sats the standard" narrative.  But this is really a difficult problem to overcome.

Unit bias has turned out to be one of the stickiest areas slowing bitcoin's inevitable acceptance.  In fact I would say it is one of the very top "problems".  Luckily it has a simple solution.  But it seems like a tough path to overcome the thought that "no one can afford a whole bitcoin anymore".

I sometimes wonder if "Sats" is a good enough word.  Perhaps so.  It is short, simple, and generally easy to say for people who speak all kinds of languages.  And it might take some time for it to finally break through, but thinking of Bitcoin in THAT unit instead of EITHER whole coins or even USD is more important than I think many realize.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then kurious.  And the handle was a little on the quick side.. but it did seem to happen.

I would like to point out that this is the BTCXMR chart too.  We have taken a fine beating on that pair, and who knows?  I think BTC has been consolodating for the next (big) leg for a while, and that COULD throw the alts a little rough waters.

On the other hand I think Doge is leading the way (wen Wownero moon? lol such invisidawg) for alts and as Bitcoin heats up and becomes the plaything for institutions and nation states, the alt world is likely to heat up even if the reason is irrational.  Joe Public is still believing the "next bitcoin" narrative.  And it has become expensive to transact in BTC. And even though Doge pumping is bad for crypto in general (because it is BOUND to crash back down I think and it makes the whole thing look like the loony casino much of it is) there are an actual handfull of alts that WILL find their place, and I do not need to explain why Monero is near (at?) the top of that list.

The sector often gets compared to the doc com bubble, and that is PARTLY true.  But the maxis have a good argument that Bitcoin is not a sector, and "there can only be one".  I think they are partly right.  There will not be a "basket" of crypto assets in the end.  I think the development is going to happen on Liquid, and sidechains like it.  And it will overshadow everything the current alts was trying to do.

But (broken record cAPS here).  Bitcoin will never have a fungible base layer.  That tradeoff will never happen.

So...



So now what happens?  That is the fun question!!!

Yeah.. I did not anticipate being handed the opportunity of a lifetime on a silver platter would make me feel so sad.

Someday... Someday.. who knows when?  We will realize that putting all transactions, features, and functions on the base layer or a blockchain asset is a fundamental error.  This FORCES us to be at the will of an centralized authority.  We can build ALL these apps (so far mostly solutions looking for a problem) on sidechains, and those can centralize as much as we might want.  That way we have choice.

OR... we can be OK with having people in control of everything we do, say, and spend.

I wish my faith in humanity was a little stronger.

We are still growing... All of crypto is starting to feel like it is expanding now... I need to do a little research.

It's fun to see them peering out of the back window.

Heh.. I still have an ADAT... but that is more like vintage 1991.  ~ 2000 there were several affordable 16 track all in one type gizmos with much less trouble to maintain than the old SVHS rigs.  I wonder if there is any parts value of my old unit.. I certainly do not need it any more.

Agree sirazimuth's song has a Tullish vibe... cool.  

I don't hate the drum track either.

I agree with Hueristic.  Well I am not sure that the Samourai devs are "scammy" I do not know.  But they are childish, argumentative and have made sketchy claims.  It seems to me that both they and the Wasabi devs have been caught making really bad privacy mistakes.  But the Wasabi devs seemed to just be using broken processes, while the Samourai devs provide enough doubt for there to even be a question as to their purposes in the first place.  I believe it was shown they were sending IP addresses back to their own servers.  That is either an accident or a straight up black hat move.

More power to them for supporting Haveno... but even that seems kind of silly since their impetus is the fact Bisq is allowing users to use the Liquid chain, which the Samourai devs see as evil because it is centralized.  But, this too seems odd since no one HAS to use Liquid.

On top of the fact that Liquid actually offers REALLY REALLY good privacy as a layer on BTC.

I have always thought something about Samourai just seems a little off.

Again.. I thin it's nice they are contributing to Haveno...  but I your attack on Hueristic to be a little over the top.  CTFD IMHO. 

Bitcorn is a ponzi.  Only losers are getting in on these tulips.

I certainly agree with this from a idealistic standpoint... But I have found even just getting a lightbulb to go on when just describing what makes bitcoin different than say, Venmo can be hard.  So helping Joe Sixpack custody his own keys safely is tricky.

Ah.  Thanks for the decode on that... seems obvious now.  And I agree that is less likely.  I think that is the case for most OG alts too... *maybe* not ETH.

So you think BTC has already topped out for this Epoch?  I will be very suprised if that is so.. I see it as an edge case, one that balances the "supercycle" edge case on the other extreme... I think the latter is actually MORE likely aside from the over-abundance of bullishness... max pain supports your theory.

As to Monero.  I see the chance it decouples significantly from bitcoin to be fairly small.  But better than most other coins.  But that is what it would have to do to fulfil your above scenario...  XMR @ 800 with BTC continuing to drop.

I think it is more likely that we see more BTC action, and *probably* a XMRBTC pullback with continued hold/rise in XMRUSD.

I could see XMR in 4 digits USD EASILY in this scenario...   

A few thoughts.

First of all bitcoin security, especially in the "self-sovereignty" realm is still a VERY unsolved problem. Even current "best practices" are not agreed upon, and many solutions will bring us right back to the original problem.  For example, a BIP39 passphrase...  Obviously these SHOULD be used.  But then, how do you secure THEM?  

Doing this right is a balance of security and simplicity.  If we try to do it in a way that is overly convoluted, or requires a very good memory, or would be difficult to communicate to another trusted human, we are increasing the possibility of a "foot gun".  When I have thought through these I have tried to come up with schemes where I would combine a set of keys for multi-sig with decoy amounts in the wallets associated with the single keys, along with BIP39 passphrases, AND the use of exotic derivation paths.  I began to realize that if I over-engineer the method in the name of "security" I am increasing the chances that I can make a mistake, or simply forget one of the things I did.

So balancing simplicity with security is important I think.

As to seed backups.  I think the above stainless steel sheet is a great one.  I am also a big fan of the stainless steel washers on a nut and bolt method, and have made several of these myself.  I even designed and built a 3d printed stamping jig.  I like that these are very compact and durable.  There are lots of great hiding places for them etc...
https://blog.lopp.net/metal-bitcoin-seed-storage-stress-test-iv/


Ultimately, I am also coming to the conclusion that trust minimized services with third parties may be one of the best solutions currently.  Lopp's Casa, or Unchained capital are good examples.  These are multisig schemes that use the third party as a security net.

And unfortunately, for some (most probably) users a bitcoin bank may be the safest solution even taking the counterparty risk into account.  Leaving your bitcoin on an exchange, or in your CashApp wallet is rightly frowned upon by we OG elite... but until we have better trust minimized options it still might be best for the masses.

Not true anymore!  Didn't their teeny sale of Bitcoin = something like 14 years of car sales? lol.  But I see what you mean.

I think the main issue with things like three letter agencies and back doors etc is to do with the cryptographic tools used in the network rather than the codebase.  In other words crypto assets rely on things like SHA2 and elliptic curves (asymmetric crypto privatives).  And the fear is someone(s) like the NSA might know a vulnerability in one of these privatives which has rendered it, for them, no longer asymmetric.  Meaning for the person with the "key to the cypher", so to speak, it will be easy to decode as well as encode which is something we rely on NOT being possible for things like Bitcoin to work at all.

Nearly everyone who really understands these things (not me, lol) seems to think this is a fairly remote chance.

I am a person of faith... I even have some education in theology.   And I agree strongly with your basic assertion that  veganism can be attractive in the same way much religious expression can be attractive.  It is often held as a sort of righteous ascetism, or self flagellation.  The ethical arguments for vegetarianism have been beaten to death, but those who still hold closely to the tenets of this sort of "faith" cannot be easily convinced.  I have no personal beef (lol) with these people and what they want to practice, for 'health' OR 'ethics', but I am also annoyed by their crusader like tendencies.

It is as if the sorts of personalities who would be crusaders for a religion can express the same sorts of things in the name of the 'environment', or 'the animals', or 'equity' (barf).  These folks are the disciples of zeitgeist following the post-modern faith of humanism, and they claim for their holy scriptures: 'Science'.  Although what they call science is also so strange.  We have heard the phrase "trust the science" from these folks a lot recently.  A quasi-religious phrase in itself, and about as anti-science as you can get with just three words.

I cannot help but also be reminded of the sanctimonious actions of the antifa "black bloc" types storming restaurants and demanding people repeat certain phrases, raise their fists or somehow otherwise genuflect.  To me this is the same sort of (strangely fascist) "convert or die" sort of attitude that has been also used by various extreme religious folks.

I would put forth that this can be a natural progression for people who have no healthy faith in the first place and they are just as annoying, and possibly even more dangerous than those who act this way in the name of God. 

We have really seen a LOT less of this little yellow dude since the general demise of BitMex...

Most of us regulars here in this thread have felt this way for a while.   I honestly do not think it is inaccurate to say Monero could be (one of?) the most undervalued crypto asset (shitcoin?) in existence.  It is most certainly a contender for that spot.

Taproot will add an interesting privacy angle for Bitcoin, in that it will make it possible to do an array of transactions that cannot be identified as a particular type.  A multi-sig transaction will look the same to a forensics team as a "regular" transaction.  So it will add a great deal of valuable privacy for users.  But it does not even BEGIN to approach the privacy Monero offers.  You will be able to open a lighting channel and it not look like it, I guess... and then you get some decent privacy on that layer, but it does not change that Bitcoin is fundamentally a transparent ledger.

I believe Monero's future is also a very polarized set of possibilities for these reasons.  From an investment angle it will live or die on it's privacy.  That will be the reason it is successful, or that it fails.  So far it is succeeding.  But the response of world governments to it, the addition of useable privacy to Bitcoin, and the chance that Monero's privacy could be broken are the areas one must consider if looking at it as an investment.  I am betting Monero excels or survives in all three of those areas ultimately.

Good to see you posting more...

It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.