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2121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:35:07 AM

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?


This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.
Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonable asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom. 

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

I doubt anyone actually did.
To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.
2122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:30:58 AM
Wow, wtf happened on the WO? There's some real ignorance coming out here. GTFO polluting the thread and our world with racism. If you're not in support of all races, it's YOU that is divided. Next topic, bitcoin please.
Nobody is fucking equal, comrade. People are different.
Yes, we are all different. Don't make the mistake of thinking one way is better than another. Some of us live our lives abroad in various countries learning more about culture, humanity, and how we are connected. You come across to me as someone who's been sheltered in America and fed MSM garbage when you spew your BS. No offence, check yourself.
Of course some cultures are better than others. That's why the rest of the world is trying to get into the west. We build the best cultures. And I have traveled enough that it no longer interests me all that much. Take a trip to Manila yourself, you'll see just how shitty cultures can be.

Of course, while cultures are not equal, they are all beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-sr5LNA50
Some of their issues aside (ridiculous work hours, shitty schools), I'm actually quite fond of Japan and its culture. It feels like an actual country of its own, while western countries all feel the same to me. I wouldn't want to live there for a small number of reasons, but from a strictly cultural perspective I would choose that place over any western country, mostly due to all of the little things that really add up. Such as not being a fucking obnoxious cunt in public.
They are nationalists instead of globalists. That's the main difference.

That's also why they focus so much on robotics. Better to have robots tend to their large elderly population than let in gaijins like we have done.
I never even understood the argument against technological unemployment. That sounds like a fucking dream come true to me. I hope Japan will remain nationalist instead of randomly deciding that it's a good idea to kill their culture.
Because nobody gives money away for free. Not governments, and not individuals.

Besides, it would be a Very Bad Thing to live in a nation of Eloi when most of the world is violent. Humans need challenges to overcome in order to be human, rather than overgrown children.
I don't really give a shit about what humans on average do though, as long as everything else is taken care of. I've been going out of my way to challenge myself for as long as I can remember, but that doesn't seem to be something that most people are interested in. Why bother forcing them when they're too stupid to challenge themselves in the right ways to begin with? Just look at the challenges that certain ideological groups are trying to overcome. They're complete and utter horseshit and they generally don't learn anything from their failures.

As far as giving money away for free goes. If nobody has any money then nobody will be capable of consuming. And getting money to spend it on the products of those who choose to engage in more creative/productive endeavours doesn't seem like a bad trade-off to me. Having the choice to sell your data would be alright too, unlike what Google and the other big tech companies are doing right now. There's also the factor of costs, which are exponentially decreasing as time moves on. Providing food and entertainment will be virtually free in the future anyways. Especially once we've got energy sorted out.
2123  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: ANN [MCO] MONACO #1 Cryptocurrency Payments Card on: February 08, 2018, 09:16:46 AM
Significant 20% price in Monaco price over the night. Until now coin was pretty stable.
Is this just because BTC falling or there are other bad news?

Monaco, like all other cryptocurrency at the moment really, is pretty much following bitcoin trends.

I'm looking forward to a time when coins are considered 'separate' enough to not be tied to bitcoin trends and can stand on their own.

There are few coins that didn't follow bitcoin trend, at least this time. Might be considered exceptions confirming the unwritten rule.
Waiting for some good news, March is approaching.
They're not really an exception, they've just had fundamentals that caused a price increase (or drop) beyond the usual BTC correlation. Rolling out features, rebranding, forking and all these things all play a factor in price discovery on top of whatever Bitcoin itself is doing.
2124  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: ANN [MCO] MONACO #1 Cryptocurrency Payments Card on: February 08, 2018, 09:15:33 AM
Significant 20% price in Monaco price over the night. Until now coin was pretty stable.
Is this just because BTC falling or there are other bad news?

Monaco, like all other cryptocurrency at the moment really, is pretty much following bitcoin trends.

I'm looking forward to a time when coins are considered 'separate' enough to not be tied to bitcoin trends and can stand on their own.
That's not going to happen until the denominators (BTC, ETH and who knows what else) hit a market cap so large that volatility decreases substantially. Probably somewhere in the 2020s.
2125  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you even read whitepaper bro? on: February 08, 2018, 09:14:04 AM
Let be real. How many of you guys actually read the whitepaper? I read whitepaper sometimes, but reading multiple of them can be a burden and a headache. Do you guys got any tips on getting through whitepaper a little faster. It killing a lot of time. Thank.
If you really want to your investment to be worth then you have to read the whitepaper then only you can get the clear idea about that project and can avoid investing your hard earned money into a scam ICO.So I will go through the whitepaper if Inwant to make investment on that project.

I agree. It's true that it may be a hassle because it is filled that information that's either new to you or information that for your is seemingly useless. However, that's due diligence that's tied up with finding gems of a project. Not every project nowadays would be successful, we know that, therefore, if you try to find out what makes the project different from others and what their goals are could make your chances of success higher. Also, it's a good way to familiarize yourself with how projects work; it can give you an idea as to how you should choose projects, rather than joining one blinding. The bigger problem their is many who join doesn't even bother to know the background of the project, only to complain afterwards that they have been scammed or that the project they joined is a failure, but in reality, they could only blame themselves.
I always find it entertaining when lazy dweebs burn themselves and then start pointing and complaining. Almost makes it seem as if karma was actually real.
2126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:12:07 AM
Wow, wtf happened on the WO? There's some real ignorance coming out here. GTFO polluting the thread and our world with racism. If you're not in support of all races, it's YOU that is divided. Next topic, bitcoin please.
Nobody is fucking equal, comrade. People are different.
Yes, we are all different. Don't make the mistake of thinking one way is better than another. Some of us live our lives abroad in various countries learning more about culture, humanity, and how we are connected. You come across to me as someone who's been sheltered in America and fed MSM garbage when you spew your BS. No offence, check yourself.
Of course some cultures are better than others. That's why the rest of the world is trying to get into the west. We build the best cultures. And I have traveled enough that it no longer interests me all that much. Take a trip to Manila yourself, you'll see just how shitty cultures can be.

Of course, while cultures are not equal, they are all beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-sr5LNA50
Some of their issues aside (ridiculous work hours, shitty schools), I'm actually quite fond of Japan and its culture. It feels like an actual country of its own, while western countries all feel the same to me. I wouldn't want to live there for a small number of reasons, but from a strictly cultural perspective I would choose that place over any western country, mostly due to all of the little things that really add up. Such as not being a fucking obnoxious cunt in public.
They are nationalists instead of globalists. That's the main difference.

That's also why they focus so much on robotics. Better to have robots tend to their large elderly population than let in gaijins like we have done.
I never even understood the argument against technological unemployment. That sounds like a fucking dream come true to me. I hope Japan will remain nationalist instead of randomly deciding that it's a good idea to kill their culture.
2127  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Stop Asking if Bitcoin is Dead on: February 08, 2018, 09:11:04 AM
I know that many people who got into investing in Bitcoin and in this industry think Bitcoin is a scam and fraud because of the all the negative news on the mass media outlets. Most of the herd invest for the wrong reasons and that is why for them Bitcoin is dead because they entered the market and exited the market at the wrong times both ways so they gave up on this technology, as they did not invest in the technology itself but were just caught up by the HYPE AND FUD surrounding Bitcoin and have no real knowledge for what it does or how it works. For them, it is dead, but for us who believe in decentralized systems it will always be alive at this time of our evolution.
News don't necessarily reflect public opinion. News are a tool for those in charge of the media outlets to try and sway public opinion. Banks in the US have already started investing in Bitcoin, all while the media keeps spreading propaganda.
2128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:08:13 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/07/how-dangerous-is-jordan-b-peterson-the-rightwing-professor-who-hit-a-hornets-nest
by
Dorian Lynskey

Dorian Lynskey is a music writer for the Guardian and Observer as well as magazines including Q, GQ and Mojo. He is the author of 33 Revolutions Per Minute: A History of Protest Songs (Faber).

Very dangerous. To the left. That's why he has become a global phenomenon. He is a modern Socrates.

Do you have any other links to his writing ? As an avowed Marxist I look forward to having my mind blown. Unfortunately I don’t know any of the people in the above article he is talking about so it all falls a bit flat.
Links about Peterson? Just look him up on youtube. He has thousands of hours of lectures and talks and debates.
They're all worth watching too. Very inspiring and down to earth guy.
2129  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you even read whitepaper bro? on: February 08, 2018, 09:05:08 AM
Let be real. How many of you guys actually read the whitepaper? I read whitepaper sometimes, but reading multiple of them can be a burden and a headache. Do you guys got any tips on getting through whitepaper a little faster. It killing a lot of time. Thank.
I don't invest in anything without reading the Whitepaper.
There are tons of ICOs that can be exposed as garbage by just reading the WP carefully, and that is something that will be of increasing relevance in the future.

Right now you can buy almost anything blindly and expect to turn a profit. But that is going to change in the future, and then investing recklessly will be like throwing money into a furnace. So it's best to start reading and investigating thoroughly now.
Researching fundamentals and business viability is a skill that takes a while to learn, and if you want to keep making profits in a few years you best get started today if you haven't learned it yet.
2130  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Stop Asking if Bitcoin is Dead on: February 08, 2018, 09:00:09 AM
On one hand it is comical on the other had annoying.
All the people that the last month have come out of the woodwork asking about bitcoin, ethereum and ripple are now blowing me up asking me if I get out before it was too late....lol

Those are real weak hands who can not stay in the line for very long period. Obviously if they had that much courage then it could have been so easy to survive the big crashes of the crypto currencies. Let them know that these currencies are future of the whole world and they will see this through the Blockchain Technology. It might look like that we are lacking lots of development approaches but in the long run they will do great for us. It’s not getting out of the crypto now but to get into it so that we can earn huge profits as they will receive bounce to new heights.
Yes I agree with your opinion. I was really upset about being around the topic of bitcoin. Most of them are very worried. It is clear that they have no experience in the crypto market.
I think they should have more experience before entering this industry. The crypto market will never go down. This is a market that many people respond to and participate in. So the altcoins will never matter.
I know a few people who got in at the top and sold pretty much the bottom. The funny part is, that they actually asked for my input. And then they completely ignored it. Can't say I didn't warn them about waiting for a correction and not buying in in one gulp.
2131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 08:55:47 AM

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?


This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.
Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.
2132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 08:43:06 AM
Wow, wtf happened on the WO? There's some real ignorance coming out here. GTFO polluting the thread and our world with racism. If you're not in support of all races, it's YOU that is divided. Next topic, bitcoin please.
Nobody is fucking equal, comrade. People are different.
Yes, we are all different. Don't make the mistake of thinking one way is better than another. Some of us live our lives abroad in various countries learning more about culture, humanity, and how we are connected. You come across to me as someone who's been sheltered in America and fed MSM garbage when you spew your BS. No offence, check yourself.
Of course some cultures are better than others. That's why the rest of the world is trying to get into the west. We build the best cultures. And I have traveled enough that it no longer interests me all that much. Take a trip to Manila yourself, you'll see just how shitty cultures can be.

Of course, while cultures are not equal, they are all beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-sr5LNA50
Some of their issues aside (ridiculous work hours, shitty schools), I'm actually quite fond of Japan and its culture. It feels like an actual country of its own, while western countries all feel the same to me. I wouldn't want to live there for a small number of reasons, but from a strictly cultural perspective I would choose that place over any western country, mostly due to all of the little things that really add up. Such as not being a fucking obnoxious cunt in public.
2133  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: █【ANN】【ICO】█【ICO LIVE】 ██ 🌟 BLOCKLANCER ██ JOIN GIG ECONOMY BOOM on: February 08, 2018, 05:43:50 AM
I just joined signature  DLee  NYMack
You can not participate in the signature campaign until your activity level gets high enough to become a "Junior Member" of the forum.

Additionally, if you wish to participate you need to register in the Blocklancer bounty portal and post your ID which you can find in the BTT-Signatures tab of your dashboard, while also updating your signature to that which corresponds to your activity level.
2134  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: 🌟[ANN][ICO] Coinlancer.io CL - Freelancers Of The World Unite - ICO| 14th OCT🌟 on: February 08, 2018, 03:09:32 AM
Is it only me who has not received payment? because I have registered https://ico.coinlancer.com/users/login to receive the gift but until now I haven't received any. Anyone can help me with this problem?
It's a scam and the "devs" have long disappeared even from their Telegram group apparently.
I dont think so. If they were scammers, they would scam instant after ICO end.
They already got their money for the ICO, that is correct. But they can get even more money by dumping their tokens on gullible people.
2135  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Deep Onion sleeping giant?! on: February 08, 2018, 03:08:26 AM
Unfortunately, Deep Onion is a late entrant to the scene. There are several established crypto-currencies, which are 100% anonymous. A few examples are Zcash, Monero and Blackbytes. Deep Onion offers nothing new.
It offers a closed source high risk wallet. As well as 99% centralization and a ponzi scheme setup.
2136  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: █【ANN】【ICO】█【ICO LIVE】 ██ 🌟 BLOCKLANCER ██ JOIN GIG ECONOMY BOOM on: February 08, 2018, 03:06:54 AM
The unsold tokens will be destroyed, right?
Correct.

Blocklancer has reached soft cap limit, meaning that soon distribution after ICO ends? and waiting to enter the exchange
That seems to be the plan. I can't confirm this, but I believe that Blocklancer has been working behind the scenes even before the ICO to ensure that listing on exchanges won't take too long.
2137  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: US Bank that is crypto-friendly? on: February 07, 2018, 04:10:28 PM
My local bank put my account under review because I exchanged 200 ETH into fiat from Coinbase and transferred the USD to my account. I hear PNG, Bank of America, and a few others are doing the same to account holders.

Can anyone recommend a US bank that is crypto-friendly?
If bank lets you to exchange crypro, it's already crypto-friendly. Remember that everything depends on value of money. I bet you will never have problem if you exchange 500$ weekly but so much ether in one time, it causes some doubts. (In my situation it's like: What is the source of money, why so much money, is it attemp of money laundering and etc silly ones). Send them what they want, every crypro-friendly bank you are looking for would do the same.
There are some banks that let you do this actually. But you still have to comply with KYC and AML laws, so without filing proper tax reports your funds will still get frozen for inspection if you cash out huge sums.

huge sums? how much? how often?
That depends on your cash flow.
2138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2018, 04:07:18 PM
Out of merits for Me I’m afraid. Great outlook on life. Remember those of us that work should work to live and not live to work.
I don't think it's a good idea to work to live. Instead, try to find what you enjoy the most out of the things that align with your abilities and potential and then seek to make a career out of it. That way you will neither become complacent (and thus ultimately unhappy and unfulfilled) if you make it "big" (in financial terms), and won't be stuck doing something you hate for money for the rest of your life either.
2139  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: █【ANN】【ICO】█【ICO LIVE】 ██ 🌟 BLOCKLANCER ██ JOIN GIG ECONOMY BOOM on: February 07, 2018, 03:57:38 PM
When will the Early Hamster Sale stage be ended?
Once 6000 Ether has been raised, currently at 3893. So at current rates in around 1-2 weeks. Would expect a slight acceleration near the end though.
what if never meet 6000ETH?
Seems unlikely given the average rate at which Ether is being sent to the smart contract.

But even if they don't reach 6000 ETH, the soft cap of 3000 ETH has already been reached.

6000 is just the threshold for the next LNC/ETH rate by the way, the hard cap is 10000 ETH.
2140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2018, 03:55:52 PM
Crypto Experts Predict 2018 Bull Run: Bitcoin To $50k, Overall Market Cap To $1 Trln
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-experts-predict-2018-bull-run-bitcoin-to-50k-overall-market-cap-to-1-trln

I NEED MORE MONEY TO INVEST MORE IF BITCOIN GOES DIP AGAIN  Grin
 I CHOOSE MY HOUSE I WILL SELL IT .  Cool
Make sure to trade your house at the peak and then sell at the dip in full on panic mode.
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