Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

Hmmmmmmm, NIST crypto document

https://csrc.nist.gov/CSRC/media/Publications/nistir/8202/draft/documents/nistir8202-draft.pdf

I smell picnic bear.

I do indeed work in standards as my day gig. However, ones of a very different nature. Without the standards I work on, none of this shit would even start working.

I thought you were too crypto rich to have a day job.

The picnic bear works because he "like it..".

hahahahahhaha


 

He works for the enemy, the USG.

In his spare time he volunteers for their asset, Ver, and the corresponding chicom asset, Wu.

Your assertion that I work for USG is simultaneously laughable on its face, and truly deserving of ridicule. It is quite apparent you are speaking of things of which you have zero knowledge, despite the fact that the open record in this very venue provides all required to see how truly laughable the assertion be.

What asset is the USG's? You mean the Federal Reserve Note? No. No volunteering on its behalf.

Oh you mean Ver is the USG's asset? First, I find the assertion that Ver be a USG asset ludicrous. You do realize he has at times been denied entry visa, right? Do you assert that as part of his 'plausible cover backstory'? Second, while our visions of the best means to free humanity from fiat slavery seem largely aligned, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Ver'.

And I suppose you mean that Wu is a chicom asset? I really have little direct evidence to say yea or nay here. Never met the man. Nonetheless, I might point out that Bitcoin Segwit is dominated by Wu in any sense that Bitcoin Cash is dominated by Wu. Further, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Wu'.

You should probably keep your vomitous crapulation to yourself. You are only serving to make yourself appear stupid.

Actually, Jbreher.  I had thought that Last of the V8 had no fucking basis at all for his shot in the dark last grasp at a USG govt assertion, so I totally shrugged off his claim.

However, now that you so vehemently defended various angles for why you are in "no way" affiliated with USG in any kind of way whatsoever, I am becoming more convinced that there has to be some kind of a USG connection there, somehow... someway.  New tentative theory has gotta be that picnic food eating bear is not really in the food stealing business, but instead part of dee gubmint.    and we better alert Torque to this new tentative theory, because surely he would be skillful at getting at the bottom of it...  A problem with Torque, though, is that he prefers to come up with his own theories   ..

as a history student I once did research/paper on the early history of institutionalized secret police in 19th century europe. parts of europe were fractioned in many small kingdoms, principalities and they all had developed secret police institutions. they sent out their agents to hunt the people who wanted democracy. to spy on them, to sniff on them, to create files about innocent folks. some/many of the agents became even agent provocateurs trying to infiltrate the networks of the democratic activists. there were so many of those agents that they sometimes outnumbered the real people at certain events. and that was just the start. those institutions have evolved since then. they had a chance to advance their infiltrating techniques and strategies for centuries!

I guess there are almost as many secret police institutions in the world as we have countries. big countries have several agencies anyway. (for example germany alone inhibits more than 30 undercover working agencies!) add to that the incredible number of OTHER government agencies that want to know stuff...  worldwide...
and how many important bitcoin forums are existing? a handful? some agencies monitor, some stir up, some collect, but get used to the fact that this forum is full of them.


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[JayJuanGee]

Hmmmmmmm, NIST crypto document

https://csrc.nist.gov/CSRC/media/Publications/nistir/8202/draft/documents/nistir8202-draft.pdf

I smell picnic bear.

I do indeed work in standards as my day gig. However, ones of a very different nature. Without the standards I work on, none of this shit would even start working.

I thought you were too crypto rich to have a day job.

The picnic bear works because he "like it..".

hahahahahhaha


 

He works for the enemy, the USG.

In his spare time he volunteers for their asset, Ver, and the corresponding chicom asset, Wu.

Your assertion that I work for USG is simultaneously laughable on its face, and truly deserving of ridicule. It is quite apparent you are speaking of things of which you have zero knowledge, despite the fact that the open record in this very venue provides all required to see how truly laughable the assertion be.

What asset is the USG's? You mean the Federal Reserve Note? No. No volunteering on its behalf.

Oh you mean Ver is the USG's asset? First, I find the assertion that Ver be a USG asset ludicrous. You do realize he has at times been denied entry visa, right? Do you assert that as part of his 'plausible cover backstory'? Second, while our visions of the best means to free humanity from fiat slavery seem largely aligned, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Ver'.

And I suppose you mean that Wu is a chicom asset? I really have little direct evidence to say yea or nay here. Never met the man. Nonetheless, I might point out that Bitcoin Segwit is dominated by Wu in any sense that Bitcoin Cash is dominated by Wu. Further, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Wu'.

You should probably keep your vomitous crapulation to yourself. You are only serving to make yourself appear stupid.

Actually, Jbreher.  I had thought that Last of the V8 had no fucking basis at all for his shot in the dark last grasp at a USG govt assertion, so I totally shrugged off his claim.

However, now that you so vehemently defended various angles for why you are in "no way" affiliated with USG in any kind of way whatsoever, I am becoming more convinced that there has to be some kind of a USG connection there, somehow... someway.  New tentative theory has gotta be that picnic food eating bear is not really in the food stealing business, but instead part of dee gubmint.     and we better alert Torque to this new tentative theory, because surely he would be skillful at getting at the bottom of it...  A problem with Torque, though, is that he prefers to come up with his own theories  ..

as a history student I once did research/paper on the early history of institutionalized secret police in 19th century europe. parts of europe were fractioned in many small kingdoms, principalities and they all had developed secret police institutions. they sent out their agents to hunt the people who wanted democracy. to spy on them, to sniff on them, to create files about innocent folks. some/many of the agents became even agent provocateurs trying to infiltrate the networks of the democratic activists. there were so many of those agents that they sometimes outnumbered the real people at certain events. and that was just the start. those institutions have evolved since then. they had a chance to advance their infiltrating techniques and strategies.

I guess there are almost as many secret police institutions in the world as we have countries. big countries have several agencies anyway. add to that the incredible number of OTHER government agencies that want to know stuff...  worldwide...
and how many important bitcoin forums are existing? a handful? some agencies monitor, some stir up, some collect, but get used to the fact that this forum is full of them.

Even if we create a list of the government agents, we won't be able to determine if we got it right or if the list makers ended up being the govt agents making shit up. 


TLDR:  We are all fucked!

[Ibian]

Wow, wtf happened on the WO? There's some real ignorance coming out here. GTFO polluting the thread and our world with racism. If you're not in support of all races, it's YOU that is divided. Next topic, bitcoin please.

Nobody is fucking equal, comrade. People are different.

Yes, we are all different. Don't make the mistake of thinking one way is better than another. Some of us live our lives abroad in various countries learning more about culture, humanity, and how we are connected. You come across to me as someone who's been sheltered in America and fed MSM garbage when you spew your BS. No offence, check yourself.

Of course some cultures are better than others. That's why the rest of the world is trying to get into the west. We build the best cultures. And I have traveled enough that it no longer interests me all that much. Take a trip to Manila yourself, you'll see just how shitty cultures can be.

Of course, while cultures are not equal, they are all beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-sr5LNA50

[vroom]

[modrobert]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

[Ibian]

Racist is a meaningless buzzword, stating facts is now racist, yes jews control the media, and the banks, that's a fact, get over it.
yes blacks on average score much lower on IQ tests and commit a disproportionately high amount violent crimes?  is that ''racist''? don't know, don't care, but it happens to be true.

OMG People of color score lower on Ethnocentric tests. I'm not even going to dignify the rest of your crap.

Get a grip, you're a racist.

P.S.  This thread is about BTC.

*sigh* no. IQ tests are simply pattern recognition. There is nothing cultural about it. That tired old excuse is... tiresome.

And they do commit more crime. About four or five times as much per capita. Again, easy enough to look up for anyone who actually cares.

[HairyMaclairy]

Personally I don’t think any 3 letter agency would find our little thread that interesting.

[ErikvanBreen]

When banks say they "might" be interested in Bitcoin futures you know they are gonna invest big time: https://www.ccn.com/european-banks-soon-hold-bitcoin-admits-ecb-president/

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

The tricky bit is what pair do you choose to oscillate around ?  Most random walks in crypto have a bias. 

[modrobert]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

The tricky bit is what pair do you choose to oscillate around ?  Most random walks in crypto have a bias. 

USD worked well for me, but maybe there are better constant-mix alternatives?

[Ibian]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/07/how-dangerous-is-jordan-b-peterson-the-rightwing-professor-who-hit-a-hornets-nest
by
Dorian Lynskey

Dorian Lynskey is a music writer for the Guardian and Observer as well as magazines including Q, GQ and Mojo. He is the author of 33 Revolutions Per Minute: A History of Protest Songs (Faber).

Very dangerous. To the left. That's why he has become a global phenomenon. He is a modern Socrates.

[HairyMaclairy]

Racist is a meaningless buzzword, stating facts is now racist, yes jews control the media, and the banks, that's a fact, get over it.
yes blacks on average score much lower on IQ tests and commit a disproportionately high amount violent crimes?  is that ''racist''? don't know, don't care, but it happens to be true.

OMG People of color score lower on Ethnocentric tests. I'm not even going to dignify the rest of your crap.

Get a grip, you're a racist.

P.S.  This thread is about BTC.

*sigh* no. IQ tests are simply pattern recognition. There is nothing cultural about it. That tired old excuse is... tiresome.

And they do commit more crime. About four or five times as much per capita. Again, easy enough to look up for anyone who actually cares.

Socio-economic status is a far more reliable predictor of IQ test performance.  Low SES children consistently underperform

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

The tricky bit is what pair do you choose to oscillate around ?  Most random walks in crypto have a bias. 

USD worked well for me, but maybe there are better constant-mix alternatives?

BTC/USD on a single exchange?   That’s hardly without bias

[HairyMaclairy]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/07/how-dangerous-is-jordan-b-peterson-the-rightwing-professor-who-hit-a-hornets-nest
by
Dorian Lynskey

Dorian Lynskey is a music writer for the Guardian and Observer as well as magazines including Q, GQ and Mojo. He is the author of 33 Revolutions Per Minute: A History of Protest Songs (Faber).

Very dangerous. To the left. That's why he has become a global phenomenon. He is a modern Socrates.

Do you have any other links to his writing ? As an avowed Marxist I look forward to having my mind blown. Unfortunately I don’t know any of the people in the above article he is talking about so it all falls a bit flat.

[explorer]

When banks say they "might" be interested in Bitcoin futures you know they are gonna invest have invested big time: https://www.ccn.com/european-banks-soon-hold-bitcoin-admits-ecb-president/

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Wow, wtf happened on the WO? There's some real ignorance coming out here. GTFO polluting the thread and our world with racism. If you're not in support of all races, it's YOU that is divided. Next topic, bitcoin please.

Nobody is fucking equal, comrade. People are different.

Yes, we are all different. Don't make the mistake of thinking one way is better than another. Some of us live our lives abroad in various countries learning more about culture, humanity, and how we are connected. You come across to me as someone who's been sheltered in America and fed MSM garbage when you spew your BS. No offence, check yourself.

Of course some cultures are better than others. That's why the rest of the world is trying to get into the west. We build the best cultures. And I have traveled enough that it no longer interests me all that much. Take a trip to Manila yourself, you'll see just how shitty cultures can be.

Of course, while cultures are not equal, they are all beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp-sr5LNA50

Some of their issues aside (ridiculous work hours, shitty schools), I'm actually quite fond of Japan and its culture. It feels like an actual country of its own, while western countries all feel the same to me. I wouldn't want to live there for a small number of reasons, but from a strictly cultural perspective I would choose that place over any western country, mostly due to all of the little things that really add up. Such as not being a fucking obnoxious cunt in public.

[modrobert]

Maybe I'm stating the obvious but oscillating markets tend to favor a rebalancing strategy (bot or manual), for some reason rarely discussed in this thread (even if hinted at times).

In other words it doesn't really matter what happens to Bitcoin in the news, as long as the rate goes up or down, the only problem is when it goes sideways.

The tricky bit is what pair do you choose to oscillate around ?  Most random walks in crypto have a bias. 

USD worked well for me, but maybe there are better constant-mix alternatives?

BTC/USD on a single exchange?   That’s hardly without bias

I tend to avoid that after mtgox crashed, lesson learned. My biggest regret was selling a lot back in 2011 as a miner, but it's never too late, Bitcoin is awesome.

[kurious]

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

[Ibian]

I don’t hold with the level of racism in this thread either.

A ban of Roach would be a good start.  His noodlings on physical silver don’t bring sufficient value to justify his other bullshit.  I don’t give a flip if he has has been here since day 1.

Who has mod powers on this thread now ?

Yes some of his racist crap offended me too and I'm not no bleeding heart liberal. But I believe in free speech,. quite passionately . Best way to counter is with some salient argument or just simply ignore. Besides he does make some interesting observations at times.

Free speech is fine, I'm strongly in favour with some limits - but the internet is full of forums for racists to vent their shite. It's not relevant to this thread, and should get modded (and yes I get the irony that this discussion isn't either).

If it's limited it's not free, you can't have it both ways.

You seem to have your own "limited" thinking, if you cannot imagine ways in which free speech can be limited and still be free.. go figure.  Based on some of your previous posts, this current position of yours that is not willing or able to circumscribe the concept of "free" does not surprise me.

So give an example if you can. Explain your position. Show your work, as it were.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.