wafer production typically takes 2 months and needs to be planned ahead. Just how many wafers would you feel comfortable ordering when you havent yet tested your first chip?

GLBSE was one of the two stock exchanges I was referring to. Bitfunder only closed after I posted what you quoted (nice necro bump), to the amazement of absolutely no one paying any attention, except maybe Ytterbium, Ytterbium & Associates.

Not so much other stuff shipping that Im aware off. Next adjustment will be in ~10 days, HF wont have shipped a lot, if anything by then, CT most likely nothing either, or at least not enough and not early enough to make much difference;  BFL has caught up with their backorders (and who in their right mind is ordering 65nm gear at those prices today), asicminer is sold out I believe, which leaves only a few small players like Bitmain and maybe some Bitfury gear?

Next 10 days will be the calm before the storm.

No, but of all things, wafer production capacity is the least likely bottleneck.   TSMC does 100s of 1000s of 28nm wafer starts per month and it is running below 70% utilization. Each wafer has potential for on the order of 25-50TH worth of asics. Timing and planning may be an issues, capacity is not. Just one day worth of (currently idle) TSMC production would result in over 500PH worth of asics.

I think I do.

Newbie registered here on november 25, mentions AMT, a mining company I hadnt even ever heard about,  in his second post after "hello bitcoin world", claiming to want to buy their hardware, posts 90% of his posts in AMT thread and is now defending what is clearly a rather braindead design.

I could be wrong, but

If we'd approach an equilibrium, there should be opportunity to make a small profit for those who do it most efficiently. Cheap electricity will be a key factor, but not the only one. The problem however, is that we will likely overshoot any equilibrium, because people dont seem to mind pre ordering 6+ months ahead while underestimating how much is being ordered  and without minding paying (a lot) more for hardware than the bitcoins that hardware can generate cost on the exchanges.

Thanks for confirming these are not original designs (although the heatsinks are the right way up for that sort of chip, same as avalon or asicminer, its the back of the PCB that needs to be cooled).

This smells like a scam. I even wonder if the Bulgarian bank isnt just a scheme to make people pay Technobit and have the boards delivered to the OP. Whether OP will keep them or ship them to increase his credibility to get more 28nm orders is anyone's guess, but with what I have(nt) seen so far, my money is on this being a pure scam.

Wow. What a devious dishonest statement to make.
No, you wont get anywhere close to that number. What that "spokesperson" forgot to tell you is that the amount of coins you mine is utterly dependant on how fast the rest of the network is. See if you can spot a trend:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

If the network doubles in speed (which currently happens every month), your mining revenue for a given machine is cut in half. Neptune most likely wont ship before June 2014 (thats my guess anyway), so it wont mine a dime this Christmas and it will not mine a fraction of the numbers quoted next Christmas.

Shame on you KnC (or IB times if he was misquoted).

Heh, good catch on that brainfart .

I stopped updating that list because so far Ive not received offers from DCs that are substantially better than list offerings, so there doesnt seem to be a point in organizing a "group buy". This by no means implies Im abandoning the idea, just that I will be skipping the first phase.

Please try some of the smaller pools too then.
The last thing we need is ghash (or btcguild) to become even bigger.

Even if it was "hastily packaged", its quite worrying its leaking.

Im also a bit puzzled how KnC managed their chip bring up in basically one day, and HF is 10 days in their chip bring up and still hasnt even enabled all dies. "taking it slow" is not what its customers want to hear I think.

If anyone wants to work out a 3D design that uses elements smaller than 20x20x20 cm (and perhaps square wooden  or aluminium booms), Id be happy to try 3D printing it.

Unless most vendors keep dropping the ball far more than they have so far, then yes.
If you dont, then do you think CT isnt going to be able to ship 2PH batches each month, or do you think CT and Bitmine together will have more than 50% of the market?

We've seen 7-8  PH added in the past 5 month, and only one vendor has been shipping latest gen miners. Next year there will be over 10 such vendors.

Who would that be? CT announced a delay, HF is delayed, ActM is delayed, BFL of course announced its nth delay in a long string of delays yet to come. KnC was almost on time, but not quite - and this wouldnt matter anyway as they were going to ship before bitmine regardless.

Not saying a delay is a good thing, but its not like Bitmine is alone.

510900000 * 1.25³ = 997M or <1B

That said, instead of assuming a continuation of an exponential growth curve that fit remarkably well the past 12 months, feel free to add up all orders promised to ship in the next 6 months from 12+ vendors and see what happens. To get you started:
Cointerra: 2+ PH per batch x 5 = 10+PH
Bitmine: 4 PH before April
Asicminer: 2-20 PH

Add your own estimates for Hashfast, BFL, BlackArrow, KnC, Labgarden, Bitmain, ActMiner,  Bitfury,  Avalon,..

Yeah, and back then they were rightly saying BFL had a proven trackrecord of delivering FPGA miners.
About one year later than they promised.

Blackarrow so far seems to have done pretty much what they promised. Granted, there is a big difference between producing boards based on FPGAs and a custom asic, but its still unfair to compare them to BFL. Id also add that BA had one of the most conservative public timetables. Thats no guarantee they will deliver, but I wouldnt be surprised if BA shipped their kit before BFL gets Monarch out of the door, and Id be willing to bet that if you order today, a BA miner will be delivered before a Monarch ordered today.


Yes thats when they say shipping will begin in order or payment, which means if you order now, you'll not likely get it before sometime in March at the earliest. Unless you think you will ROI in 2 weeks, difficulty in April and beyond will determine how "cheap" you think you bought your miner, and by that time, almost all vendors will be shipping their latest product in volume.

How it could it not be real? And its no different than cointerra's april batch.

Whether you will still find those an unbelievable deal by that time, we shall see in April, but there is no doubt BFL is offering lousy deals.

Its a real company with a proven trackrecond supplying FPGA miners. There is very little to no doubt their asic project is genuine. Whether or not they will be able to deliver what they promise when they promise,  is anyone's guess, but that goes for every other company out there.

I have no intentions of printing or certainly not shipping guns , sorry.
I dont think a gun would work in PLA anyway, Im guessing that needs ABS.

It needed some tweaks; I had to add a glass plate on the heated bed, because the stock bed is curved. The glass is only barely getting warm enough now, but with some tape on it, objects stick fairly well and its up and running:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRRpx4qZTJw

Still needs a bit of fine tuning to eliminate occasional "blobs" of plastic, probably caused by too high extruder temperature.

Only tried PLA so far, the heated bed is probably inadequate for ABS, so Im looking in to further modifying that.

Anyway, if you have some PLA work, let me know. I got red and black spools available.