For an investor, this changes almost nothing. Whether crypx witholds your dividends to buy additional hashrate with your coin, or you spend waste your divs to buy more shares (ie, more hashrate) is basically the same thing. The only real difference is that you determine when to buy and at what price, so if anything, this is an improvement.

Of course it will never allow you to keep up with difficulty, but cryptx doing it for you was even less likely to achieve that.

Can you spot a trend since the loaned hardware came online?



Yeah, multiplying todays div by 365 makes as much sense as anyone who did it when peta mined nearly 100BTC / day.

edit: it took one minute and thirty seconds ROFL
 

If "coming through" still lets investors lose 2/3 of their investments in a matter of weeks, I dread to think what could happen when he no longer "comes through".

Indeed. So many zero's its tough to keep track off.


Obviously, but at that point dividends are equal to or less than mining fees, from which point there wont be any dividends anymore and the remaining share value will approach zero. Some will argue the hardware still has resale value, but at that point, that will be peanuts. Moreover, shareholders do not own the hardware, they own the mining revenue minus fees. Ie, nothing at that point.

Wait, werent you a self proclaimed long term holder? Clearly you were not, just as I said, you were just trying to make me shut up, boost the price and get out before everyone else. Oh, and then try to paint me as having a hidden agenda. Hypocrite.

BTW, its hilarious if I post frequently people see that as proof of me shilling and beg me to shut up. When I got other stuff to do and basically all my points have already been proven, the same people see that as more proof I was shilling. Tough crowd. But if you think I hold a single satoshi in peta, you are delirious.

Here, some updated charts:

Still using the same 7% / Week growth - 3% week growth deceleration assumption:






0.008/BTC would seem like a reasonable price,  3x lower than the current market price.

BTW, if you think difficulty will grow substantially slower, buy all the antminers you can find and get rich.

The results cant be verified. What more do you need to know?



Did they use it to organize shareholder votes, or to consult employees what beverages they want in the hallway vending machines?

CEX.IO price is ridiculous if you only consider expected dividends, but its being played like a casino. The best possible illustration of "the greater fool theory". Wile your odds of winning are well below that of most bitcoin gambling sites, considering the demand, there is at least a reasonable chance of making of a profit, even though the share price is completely and utterly detached from future mining revenue expectations.

If you want to play that game on havelock with the total of the bid book often in low double digit numbers, you're nuts.

No religious fanatic without a holy book. Im guessing his is this:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHNCdDBqOTV2Zmt6ZW9PbWdvZDV1M3c#gid=0

You see, according to Scripture, difficulty is only 1.5B now, not nearly 17B.  All those hashrate charts and blockexplorers must be blasphemous .

Assumptions (which I never presented as fact) can be wrong, but math doesnt lie. You can challenge my difficulty growth assumptions, in fact, Ive often asked peta investors to provide their assumptions that leads them to holding or buying, but if you do the math you will find that any growth assumption that would justify even the current share price (and that is something you CAN calculate) is simply implausible.

You see,  I may not be able to predict with certainty how fast difficulty will grow (though so far, I came pretty darn close), but I do have a good idea of where its headed and of its upper and lower bounds because difficulty isnt random. Its the result of a rational process. If you want to argue its possible difficulty will soon level off, let alone decrease, you will have to explain why no one would continue deploying miners that would be extremely profitable under those same circumstances.


If you used your brain you would realize that those variables, combined with manufacturing capacity are what determine future difficulty, which is all that really matters. The absolute numbers mean nothing. If they did, I wouldnt have made a big stack of coins mining with GPU's.


Your mining calculator doesnt account for the fact that because of the laon,  you only received 50% of the mining revenue, yet paid hosting fees for the full amount (and one might argue, for 4x that amount). SO yes, I meant what I said. I gave you the numbers and the math. Sum of dividends was barely above 0.01BTC using optimistic growth assumptions. The current plan to convert the loan in to (overvalued) shares makes it a little better, but still no where near current market price, never mind IPO.

If anyone could put the numbers in, how come everyone overbought the IPO by pretty much a factor 10x? How come nearly no one took my numbers seriously when I posted them?


Sure, now you know. Just not yet by how much it still is overvalued. Just like now you know Labcoin was a scam. But you didnt know when I told you, over and over and IIRC you also asked me to stop "obsessing" about that.

BTW,  I dont need your or anyone's permission to post whatever the heck I want, and I dont have to wait to be asked for my opinion. No one asked yours either (and if anyone did and actually cared for your opinion, he's an idiot because I dont recall you have ever been right on anything). How's your Ukyo loan doing BTW?

Ill put my predictions next to those of anyone in this thread. For the record, here is my first spreadsheet:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310783.msg7396854#msg7396854



Those numbers are damn near spot on, considering I didnt try to guess when difficulty changes would occur and just calculated averages per week. We are now in week 4, for which I had predicted 15.2B difficulty and 0.0012 BTC dividends. In reality its 16,8B difficulty and 0.0011 BTC dividends. Next week difficulty will likely remain the same and my prediction of 16.2B will be off by a full  4%. Also note that I was  too optimistic, as predicted.
So, who did better?

As it should. Its clear Cryptx is also worried its loan would never get paid back, which is why he is proposing converting the loan to shares.. But its a reasonable deal, valuing the shares well above market value and miles above NAV or expected revenue. Moreover, 100% dividend pay out will make it impossible for cryptx to squander what little could otherwise ever end up the reinvestment fund. This is a good deal, shareholders should take this opportunity with both hands, at least if they are dumb enough to keep their shares in the first place, because fundamentally this changes almost nothing.

You do realize mining revenue and dividends have nearly halved in exactly one month since all the loaned hashrate went online, right?
Try extrapolating that "annually" and see what happens. If the math is too hard, take a ruler and hold it to your screen with this chart:



(dont forget ~70BTC bottom which is the point where your divs hit zero)

Ive been telling you what would happen to peta since peta traded around 0.08. You already lost your money by ignoring me.
And you will continue to lose what tiny bit there is still to be had in the bid book by ignoring simple logic and arithmetic.

Go ahead. I ROFL at all you bag holders.

ROFL who'd have thought..


At this rate, dividends will stop all together in about a month.

I would have an interest if anyone had been willing to lend me their shares for a 20% bonus in dividends.

NO one is willing though, from which you should conclude that no one here really believes peta has long term value, and everyone is just playing a game of hot potato, hoping for an opportunity to sell these shares to a bigger fool.

Its the same game as on cex.io with that difference than on cex.io there seem to be plenty of fools actually buying the overpriced junk so even though your odds are worse than on any gambling site, at least you have a chance to profit.

Which is further proof its purely a ponzi. Just imagine you could achieve a "1-3% per day" profit using fiat money; what would you do? Set up a fancy website and marketing campaigns to borrow dollars and hand out your insane profits; or get filthy rich?

Anyway, good luck getting your fiat back after 6 or 12 months.

BTCe has a clear and credible business model that allows them nice profits without scamming anyone. That doesnt prove they wont, and I do indeed consider BTC-e to be very high risk, but its entirely plausible they are legit. This ponzi of yours however, its utterly obvious if the operators really were able to extract the profits they claim from arbitrage, they wouldnt need to borrow your coins, pay outrageous interest rates and keep borrowing more to get filthy rich. Ergo, its a ponzi.