But not willing to put your money where your mouth is and take my bet based on the claims Ive actually made.
Nice.


Comforting? You'd have to be a braindead idiot to have lost money on AM. IPO at 0.1 BTC, paid a multiple of that in dividends and still trades 2.5x higher than IPO.  Of course it bubbled, and friedcat dropped the ball after gen 1,  but at least AM had and still has a business plan that doesnt defy math.


I did not. But if I had said it, it would have been as valid as making the same claim with Gigamining or pirate bonds or labcoin. In all those cases early adopters had plenty of exit opportunities at high multiples of the IPO, but unless you were betting on that for short term flipping,  they were fundamentally bad investments. Cryptx is no different in that regard.


Did you actually read what I wrote in that quote? I wasnt endorsing active mining, I was arguing Labcoin was a far more stupid bet. Was I wrong?  labcoin investors lost every last satoshi, activeminer investors at least manage a dollar denominated profit if they want out.  BTW, if you really followed that thread or browsed my posting history, you will also have noticed I predicted ActM would run in to legal trouble for selling unregistered securities, and I was ridiculed by most. Of course, I was proven correct. If you want to find an actual bad prediction of me, look harder. Take your time.

Im telling people today they are idiots for buying in at IPO price or for not cashing out, I dont have a time machine to go back to august of last year and tell them then; or make the bet; nor did I claim that back then. My time machine also doesnt allow me to go back and tell AM investors to cash out at 1BTC, but  I am not calling anyone an idiot for buying AM shares, didnt say it back it then, not saying it  today at todays market  price. AM current price seems reasonable to me,  it may or may not pan out, I have no idea since I cant just get a very good estimate on the ROI by estimating difficulty . And that makes it completely different from cryptx. Grade school math shows its virtually impossible cryptx will achieve a positive ROI at todays price,  unless difficulty growth would spectacularly grind to halt. Hint, not happening yet:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   13,400,877,470 (+13.99%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Anyway  I dont understand your reasoning, you are unwilling to bet based on todays price, yet claim you are not selling your shares so you are already betting based on today's price.. So which is it, you think you will profit in 6 months  compared to today's situation or you wont? Or are you just hoping for some irrational bump to get out in the coming weeks?

Fair enough, if cryptx gets delisted but can still be traded freely, and there is a reasonable and objective mechanism to determine their market value (ie not "I got a bid on IRC for 1 share"), I have no problem with the bet running its course. However, if it goes gigamining style, direct shares, no longer tradable, there is no objective way to determine its value. In principle Id be okay to add up all future dividends and a final buyback price,  but it could take years before we have these numbers, and Im not willing to bet on such a long term. But I cant see a reason for cryptx to do this, other than because of what Ive been saying, that cryptx is breaking security regulations and can not publicly offer these securities. Can you see any other reason? If not, why would you worry about it?


Define "original investor" for me. You mean the one's that bought at 0.05 BTC on havelock ? Or  on btct.co at 0.65 BTC before the split ? Or the ones that bought in privately before it went on btctc? If so, no dice, those investors have been handed freebies at the expense of later ones. I very much doubt that will put them in the black 6 months from now, but Im not betting on that, I dont even have an idea how much dividends they received on btct.co to date. Im betting against anyone who got in at 0.095 or anyone getting in at todays market price. The fact you claim you are not selling means you expect to achieve a profit above todays value, so why not use that?


If havelock closed down, shares wouldnt be worthless, I would assume they would be relisted on another exchange. If your fear is that this might happen exactly when our bet expires, Im more than willing to put in some provision that allows time for a relisting elsewhere. And Im not betting on havelock being forced shut. I would however be willing to bet on the issuer being closed down, but not in a timeframe Im willing to lock in funds.

Yes, that part Im fine with. However,


The reason wouldnt be odd, I have stated why I expect one or both of these things (delisting and/or forced IPO reimbursement) to happen. It has happened before and it will almost certainly happen to cryptx.  I do *not* know if it will take more or less than 6 months, nor do I know if this will cause shareholders to profit or cryptx to go bankrupt;  but Im not betting against my own prediction that cryptx will at some point be forced to delist its securities and comply with regulations.

Is that the profit you are betting on, or at least unwilling to bet against? Why is this provision a problem for you if you are adamant that cryptx is not breaking any regulations?


I am sure that if cryptx remains listed, shareholders will not profit. I am not sure at all if that will be the case if/when authorities step in. Had BTC price collapsed instead of skyrocketed, VMC/Activeminer shareholders would have profited very nicely from the  settlement forced upon it. Again, is that why are betting on cryptx?

We'll make it a more formal contract, but essentially my conditions are
- 6 months from now crytpx share price + sum of all dividends < 0.0975 BTC IPO
- If cryptx is delisted and not relisted on a public exchange, I win (gigamining scenario)
- if cryptx is forced by authorities to refund IPO investors, be it in BTC or in fiat, I win regardless of the height of the settlement and the BTC/Euro exchange rate. (activemining scenario)

As for escrow, Id have to look in to it, but I would prefer a multisig transaction so that we can solve the outcome without arbiter, and only need the arbiter if we cant agree. More secure than sending 20BTC to whatever third party.

LOL? I would love to, but everyone else chickened out. Are you game?

Dont like AM or rockminer? Look at bitmain. Last november  S1 antminers sold for 4.75 BTC (bids up to 6BTC), by mid january it had dropped to 2.2 BTC and last week it was 0.414 BTC.

BTW, if not AM, who do you think just added nearly 20PH to the network in the past week? Hint: it wasnt cryptx.

Id appreciate if you quoted correctly and not put someone else's words in my mouth.

That said, selling hardware doesnt change  anything at all. On average hardware depreciates just as fast as difficulty goes up.   To illustrate,  last august, cryptx first IPO was for 20TH, 10K shares at 0.65BTC per share. That means, ~325 BTC/TH. Right now,  Cryptx is valued at 4.7 BTC/TH and rockminer hardware is about to hit retail market at around 1.7-2.5 BTC/TH. Can you spot the pattern?

Whatever residual value you get for your used hardware, I dont see how you would expect to buy more hashrate with it.

Yep AMT using people's actual names instead of forum handles is first of all confusing since most of us do not know the names, secondly it comes off as threatening. "we know who you are" and lastly it violates customers privacy.

This has been said several times, so I will have to assume its done on purpose.

My bids ? Lol. Lend me your shares or accept my bet and Ill stay away for a week. Deal?

Historically, almost no asic miner ever achieved a positive BTC denominated ROI, and going forward that is not going to change. (I am talking about people or companies buying retail products, not private mines producing their own asics, much less people smart enough to sell their hashrate)

That said, if you think peta could possibly achieve  a positive ROI with hardware costing nearly 5BTC/TH and $0.2/KWH or whatever electricity,  then consider this:

http://minersource.net/collections/frontpage/products/rockminer-crossbow-440-440gh-bitcoin-miner

Thats closer to 2.5 BTC/TH and can be run in datacenters with $0.02/KWH. Clearly if PETA is even able to break even, then that rockminer is a gold mine that will nearly double your investment. Now guess what would happen if that were true? Who wouldnt buy something that will double their investments? Everyone and their dog would buy as many of these as they could get their hands on, but keep in mind AM has 60PH on its way for this month and possibly 100PH in the next month. The result is inevitable, difficulty will shoot up so high that even those rockminers will on average at best be marginally profitable, except maybe for some lucky early buyers if rockminer/AM would have trouble keeping up with demand.  So if even these rockminers are not likely to achieve a significant positive ROI,  where does that leave PETA?

You people just dont seem to get this is a zero sum game and a race to the bottom at the same time. There is no way to win this race, not by buying hardware anyway.


ROFL. Im not sure which of both pipedreams I consider less laughable, PETA breaking even or BTC breaking 1 million dollar this year..

More like 8-9 weeks, assuming a continuation of 7% weekly network growth trend (in reality it will likely accelerate in the coming weeks, due to AM) :



BTW, hilarious that some of the big boosters that accused me of trolling,  yet were unwilling to bet, and got out now on the first opportunity.
Draw your own conclusions.

What amazes me more is how little creativity these fraudsters have to show to keep suckering in people. Its the exact same thing each and every time and Ive heard all those arguments a gazillion times and each and every one of them ended up the same way.  

If you really believe you can achieve > 1000% YoY why on earth would you send your money to yet another anonymous website instead of doing it yourself? And if you dont have the skills, why not contract someone to do it for you. Now for argument's sake, lets say you do that, and it does actually work, what would you do? Invest your own money or let others rake in the profit?

Oh well, I couldnt convince anyone pirate, bitdaytrade and all the others where ponzi's, so Im sure I wont convince anyone this time. See you in 6 or 12 months in the scam accusation section.

If you dont know exactly what they are really doing, and they are promising/paying unreal profits,  constantly trying to attract more and more funds with referral programs etc, it should be glaringly obvious what it is they are doing.

I cant believe someone who's been around since 2011 still falls for this. Tell me, how many other ponzi's did you get suckered in?

Asicminer never promised a profit. The venture was high risk and could just as well have failed, like  99% of all other bitcoin securities did.  Thats something totally different as this here.


I bet you believed all the pirate bullshit too? Goat's and Alberto's "arbitrage bots" ?  Bitscalper, bitdaytrade, bitwhateverponzi. Havent you been around long enough to see through this? Here is the thing, even if they were somehow able to extract those kinds of profits, why would they still need your money and why would they pay the bulk of those rewards to you?


Oh thats easy. One has nothing to do with the other. Payout decreasing is almost certainly because the shills arent managing to get enough new users to sign up. Or did you think pirate reducing his payouts was related to anything he ever said?

ROFL. Seems at least I went to school.  Hint: plug 1.01^365 in a calculator and see what happens. As for 240% YoY being "reasonable", get a grip. Even loansharks dont charge nearly that much. But hey, dont believe me, just dont come crying when this ponzi collapses.

1% per day is nearly 4000% per year. Even 0.5% per day is still over 600% YoY. Anyone who believes they could achieve those sorts of returns and still need your money and would want to hand over most of the profits to you, instead of taking a loan from the bank at a fraction of the cost, is an idiot. Its yet another pyramid/ponzi/HYIP scam. Did no one learn anything from Pirate?

Neither. You are heading down fast. Unless you call ~4% per week (~7% from difficulty minus best case reinvestment) "slowly".

But lend me you shares for 6 months, and I'll give you 10% extra divs.

A tradable profit sharing agreement is a security

(1) The term ‘‘security’’ means any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond, debenture, evidence of indebtedness, certificate of interest or participation
in any profit-sharing agreement, collateral-trust certificate,....

https://www.sec.gov/about/laws/sa33.pdf

Which of course, they do.