Reread what I wrote, a few times if need be. IM not sure I can explain it any better. The 0.074BTC is the result of those reinvestments assuming they yield 100% (which they wont). Reinvestments are not paid out like dividends, yet Im adding that to the revenue.

How much is the grand total of 0.0074BTC /share reinvestment going to earn? Its impossible to know for sure, but the latest IPO investment will generate less than 30% of the original investment as mining revenue. In those charts, I am counting future re-investment funds as if they will mine back 100% (without guessing when that will happen or what hashrate that would represent, nor what electricity costs would be), That,  if anything is probably extremely optimistic.  As I said earlier, if you think cryptx can do a (re)investment that earns substantially more than 100%, than that is what you want to invest in, not the current petamine shares that will not even break even if reinvestments achieve 500% ROI.


Doesnt change anything, see above. Yes, a cryptx share will in the future represent more than 15GH, but however much GH it represents, its never going to earn more than marginally above what I plotted, and in reality probably substantially less as those reinvestments will almost certainly again yield less than 100%.

Intel have been doing 20nm since 2012.. well, in a way:
http://ark.intel.com/products/71527/Intel-SSD-335-Series-240GB-2_5in-SATA-6Gbs-20nm-MLC

FWIW, I think both questions are worth pursuing. Maybe there is a software problem somewhere, but if it turns out that its profitable for a dominant entity to carry out such an attack (and without doing any math, I do think it would be), then this is a problem worth solving regardless if we have suffered the consequences already.

Exactly who would pay me dhenson and to what purpose?

Anyone paying attention, lots of newbies here that try to pump this hugely overpriced bond, most of whom seem immune to reason, yet no one is willing to accept either a bet or organize a loan that would significantly increase their "profits". Wonder why?


Maybe thats why. Sorry if Im blocking your emergency exit Dhenson.



BTW, how's labcoin doing?



Did you manage to pump and dump those shares in time?  
 Im still waiting for my payment for trying to make you see you were getting ripped off, or were you by that time trying to rip others off?

I dont see the incentive for multipool to perform a block withholding attack, nor  any statistically credible evidence for it. And certainly no one is accusing DrHaribo of anything (other than being too awesome ).

But If your read a few posts up, you will see that there is indeed an incentive for a dominant mining entity to carry out such an attack, and there is rather credible evidence this has been done on Eligius and BTCguild. So lets not put our heads in the sand, and search for a solution to this problem, even if its only a theoretical problem.

BTW, its possible multipool is being (ab)used as one of many proxies by this dominant entity.

Assuming this is even taking place, which Im not convinced off, a large mining entity like ghash might have several incentives to do this; a block witholding attack  would hurt their smaller competitors for almost no cost, possibly driving miners away from these "unlucky" pools towards their own,  and it would keep difficulty artificially low. Once you get big enough,  adding more hashrate doesnt bring you a lot of extra mining revenue, it mostly increases difficulty and therefore your own cost as you start competing with yourself. Then its probably better to hide your hashrate this way, its not adding to difficulty, yet you are still getting paid for it. Maybe organofconti can do the math at what point this makes sense. But this would also explain some of the huge swings we see in the estimated network hashrate, which seem to be too big to be caused by chance.

You understand correct, but a block withholding attacker would be paid by the pool for all his submitted (non winning) shares. So he would earn just as much as a regular miner per GH. Well, minus that one winning share

To help dispel the reinvestment myth, made another chart. First again, my assumptions for network growth, which so far are seriously underestimating reality:





Note that I start with 7% week network growth and assume a rapid deceleration, in reality its >10% right now and if anything, still accelerating.

still, given those optimistic assumptions, and assuming constant hosting costs based on the latest financial statement, simple arithmetic gives you this result:



So in total each share will yield a maximum of 0.01765 BTC in dividends from the original 15GH and there will up to 0.0074 BTC per share available for reinvestment after the loan is paid back.
0.0177+0.0074=~0.025 BTC per share. That would represent a reasonable value for cryptx shares, if you believe his future reinvestments will make far more sense than his investments to date. And you guys seem to think its wise to pay nearly three times that because..?

Even if cryptx could turn a 0.00739 reinvestment in to a 1000% profit, which is about whats needed to break even on todays price), why would you invest in the current peta mine, and not directly in to whatever miracle investment cryptx will come up with?  Seriously, do some math, make your own simulations. It makes no sense whatsoever.

BTW, those who think my network growth assumptions are way too pessimistic, I seriously doubt that, but even if, then this is what a 3BTC Antminer S2 (2.4 BTC with coupon)  would do under the exact same conditions:



Instead of a 75% loss, it would be between a ~30% loss and a 80+% profit depending on your electricity costs and if you get a coupon (plenty around). And feel free to reinvest every single mined satoshi if you think thats a good strategy.

edit: those who want to play with the numbers, here is the spreadsheet:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/xtovt74dln15iav/crytpx.ods

Legal threats aside, the company is doing just fine, but you are not buying a share in the company!

Sure, but what money is cryptx going to purchase it with? There is no reinvestment fund for a few months, and after the loan has been paid back,  50% of the mining revenue that will be available for investments will be dust compared todays share price.

Most likely Bert will launch a new security like "zetamine" to raise money to buy AM or whatever other hardware with, but thats not going to be of any use to current petamine holders.

You mean for cryptx, the issuer ? No problem at all. He's sitting pretty, he doesnt even hold any shares himself. All he does is collect hosting/mgt fees that do not decrease with difficulty.


Again, if you mean Bert, sure. He is taking zero risk. But as an asset holder, you are not buying in to the company, you are buying a mining bond that entitles you to 15GH per share (minus that loan, minus fees).


Zero. I guess you didnt read this thread. I would however, love to short this.

Without knowing how many millions they will spend on wafers, thats not a conclusion you can draw. What you can probably safely conclude, is that they intend to order a shitload of wafers. Lets make some guesses. Lets say the mask set cost $5M and lets say per TH cost scales linearly with node/transistor size. 20²/28²~=0.5. So if they intend to order >$5M worth of wafers, it  makes sense excluding even the improved power efficiency.

Stop drinking Inaba's coolaid. 20nm structured asics (altera hardcopy etc) dont even exist yet.

Now given how new/experimental 20nm still is, I am sure its a standard cell implementation which will never be optimally efficient. But keep in mind that smaller process nodes offer 2 advantages; first is power efficiency, the second is transistor density which directly translates in to cost per TH.

NRE might have been sky high, but unless yields are in the toilet, 20nm chips should be cheaper to produce than 28nm chips per TH.

So you are saying AM will not be able to sell hardware that consumes ~1W/GH at the wall and costs them less than 0.3 BTC per TH at the chip level because no one will want that. Yet you think its a good idea to buy shares that represents nearly 6BTC/TH and with electricity cost that are nearly 10x higher than any AM/Antminer/CT/whatever miner run in iceland or washington dc ?

Think that through..

  Its a proverb.

Mining tends to be bad enough, but this is worse. Buying cryptx right now is the equivalent of buying hardware @ 5.7 BTC/TH if you include the 670BTC remaining loan. Even an antminer S2 costs ~3 BTC/TH and is considered overpriced by many, and at least can be hosted somewhere with far lower electricity costs than peta.


The prefinanced stuff has to be paid back through witholding dividends. As a result for the next (most crucial) 2 to 3 months, half the dividends are going to the issuer to repay the loan, and nothing is left for reinvestment. As for reselling less efficient hardware, the last IPO price represented 6.5BTC/TH. When cryptx auctioned off some hardware to replace with more efficient gear, he got 1.6-1.7 BTC/TH not even a month later.

ANyway, to the "+10" posters; why are you not taking me up on my offer? If you think holding cryptx is wise, clearly my offer is 10% better.

Did you mistype or actually mean that you think this is a wildly good investment compared non bitcoin securities?
If you meant to say compared to your average bitcoin security (70% of which are scams, 29% mining bonds which always loose and 1% that may be worth something), then Id agree. Of course the prettiest of all piles of poo is still a pile of poo.


Physical assets that depreciate much faster than snow melts in the sahara and dividends that are function of difficulty. Have you looked at difficulty or network hashrate charts recently? Yesterday difficulty went up 14.5%  and  its currently projected to increase >18% in 11 days. That means dividends go down by the same amount, and your physical assets depreciate by about  as much, and this is even before the big onslaught; Asicminer based rigs start shipping this or next week, good for a total of 60-100PH (!). Antminer starts shipping its 28nm S3 next week. KnC starts shipping and probably deploying its 20nm this week. Heck, even BFL may finally begin deploying some Monarchs this week, and then there is my hunch that a 28nm Bitfury is just around the corner.

Look, I shouldnt be saying this and talk you in to accepting my short, but honestly, its like taking candy from a baby.

Cryptx is not a scam, its run fairly professionally and to my knowledge honestly (even if in blatant violation of regulations), but its just another mining bond, and one based on hugely overpriced hardware (nearly 5BTC/TH) with very high electricity/hosting fees and a loan that needs to be paid back for the next 2, possibly 3 months. Even if it was a good mining bond,  to my knowledge no mining bond ever has produced a positive BTC denominated ROI over its lifetime, or even come close.  When cryptx  has dropped to around 0.025-0.035, then consider picking up some shares and pray reinvestment is either scaled back or done far more competitively then until now. But right now, you'd be nuts to buy. But hey, if you disagree, striking a deal with me will at least be slightly less nuts, to the tune of ~10% less nuts

Ive been around (far) longer than any bitcoin security exchange. But for those that dont know or trust me, as mentioned, im open to using escrow or multisig transactions with a third party arbiter. Id say thats a lot safer than relying on some Panamese company thats breaking security regulations all over the world.