25% bonds, 25% cash sounds pretty dollar-heavy to me. You are advising saving in dollars if you are pushing this allocation.
You forgot to mention the 25% stocks and 25% physical gold that are also part of the Permanent Portfolio. But agreed, the Permanent Portfolio is very fiat heavy with his 25% bonds and 25% cash. This however does not matter. What matters is whether the Permanent Portfolio succeeded in preserving your purchasing power in all economic climates. And yes, it succeeded in beating true inflation in every climate, even in the short term! (3-5 years). Hiya RS. I don't think the Permanent Portfolio is 100% guaranteed to preserve your capital (what if a disruptive technology such as bitcoin takes over the role of gold and cash), but I do believe it is the best attempt at preserving your capital as risk-free as possible in diverse economic environments, based on historic data. At present however, I would hedge the strategy with a few bitcoins. |
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Litecoin is used exactly for 1 thing, mining new litecoins to either sell them for bitcoins or dollars, or to hoard them (which is is highly questionable since it's a Tulip bubble).
... The whole LTC economy is based on people mining new LTC's, it's a dead end loop.
Yes. I came to the same conclusion too. The first-mover advantage in crypto-currency is absolutely critical. I just can't see mainstream sites offering >1 choices of crypto. The public would see it as a Sony/Betamax or Blu-Ray/HDDVD drama all over again and be annoyed about it. you guys forget, that by buying ltc with btc and buying btc back with ltc you wash btc. LTC is also much faster. We have seen where BTC can take 1 to 2 hours to have just one confirm. Operations that need speed all the time will use LTC. Is there a reason why BTC blocks only refresh every 10 minutes? The faster confirmation time is the only value I could possibly see in LTC. Why doesn't BTC just take faster confirmation times? |
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Balloon is deflating...  Are you looking at the same chart as me? |
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You might be right. I almost wish I was trading on MtGox right now, sadly Virwox lags behind and never peaks quite as high or dips quite as low. Safer bet, but less room for huge profit.
You are assuming that Mtgox lets you trade at the top moments. The reality is it takes 15 minutes just to cancel an order, god knows where the price will be when your order gets through. |
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Could you (or anyone who has the data) please make a graph that shows:
(total_bid / total_ask) vs. time
and overlay that with a price graph?
It would be interesting to see if it can be used a an indicator for future bitcoin price. I noticed that at the moment total_bid/total_ask = 56.9 BTC/USD (and slowly rising). This number is strikingly close to the bitcoin market price (and it is of the same dimension). It would be interesting to see a graph of historical values of that number, especially how it behaves during the times immediately before a major price drop.
THIS ... +10 (i was looking for something like that but never asked...) +1, does anybody know how to get the raw data? I made a program to get the raw blockchain data by the way, if anyone is interested. It was the first real program I have ever written, so the code might be ugly, but it works  . By "Raw blockchain data" what do you mean? I mean getting .csv data for any blockchain.info chart |
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Over $5 mil in visible orderbook.  Could you (or anyone who has the data) please make a graph that shows: (total_bid / total_ask) vs. time and overlay that with a price graph? It would be interesting to see if it can be used a an indicator for future bitcoin price. I noticed that at the moment total_bid/total_ask = 56.9 BTC/USD (and slowly rising). This number is strikingly close to the bitcoin market price (and it is of the same dimension). It would be interesting to see a graph of historical values of that number, especially how it behaves during the times immediately before a major price drop. THIS ... +10 (i was looking for something like that but never asked...) +1, does anybody know how to get the raw data? I made a program to get the raw blockchain.info charts data by the way, if anyone is interested. It was the first real program I have ever written, so the code might be ugly, but it works . EDITED for clarity |
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Hi
As far as I am aware it is not possible to cancel unconfirmed transactions currently. If the block limit is maintained, this will likely lead to a scenario where first transactions without fees will go through in calmer moments, then not at all anymore.
I was now thinking of the following scenario: somebody tries to be a cheapass by not adding a fee to his transaction, transaction volume picks up forever, and the transaction is stuck in limbo forever. He might try a new doublespend with fee, but apparently that is not trivial either?
Would it be good to implement a "cancel unconfirmed transaction" option in the clients? Or does this already exist and is my information outdated?
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This is an interesting discussion. I have to say that I agree with benjamindees. A Bitcoin only approach in a highly competitive market has never before worked, and it seems it doesn't work here either. Even though I respect Roger Ver as the Bitcoin Jesus, but he did lose the business perspective with this store. It was insanely ambitious to not accept any other payment methods and make a deal with a supplier that needs such a high volume to keep the deal going.
+1, I have also suggested in the past that they also take traditional payment methods. Now, you are just artificially limiting your target audience, and the bitcoin economy/community, while growing fast, isn't that big yet. Maybe the whole project is a year too early. Then again, they probably put a lot more thought into this than I did, and I am still hoping they will succeed, quite nice to be able to buy all that equipment with bitcoins at a good price. (the growing bitcoin price should give a good financial buffer as well) EDIT: European warehouse would be nice indeed. |
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A LOT faster than before, thanks guys!
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I have a feeling that the boom is coming from both professional investors starting to look into bitcoin after it has gained credibility and small-timers looking to get quick rich while hardly knowing anything about bitcoin or monetary policy.
The last are weak hands, the prior group is getting new loads of money into the bitcoin system that will probably stay there for a long time.
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PS: Then definitely college, undergrad  Haha, no |
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For people who do their homework, it is never a gamble.
How about 'the butterfly effect' and 'chaos theory' ? No matter how prepared you are, you are never 100% sure. Better not go outside today, might get run over. No reason to put on a bicycle helmet or have insurance, chances of getting run over are slim, so they are zero. |
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For people who do their homework, it is never a gamble.
How about 'the butterfly effect' and 'chaos theory' ? No matter how prepared you are, you are never 100% sure. That kind of questions makes me think that most people here are just high schoolers. For you guys making any kind of investment is a gamble. Why do I think you are a high schooler? You could have said, "how about risk and uncertainty", but no, you have to jump all the way to terms that are way out of topic, but common to find in youtube. Haha, did you do your homework on predicting I am a highschooler ? You would have lost some money on that gamble.... I am definitely not, just tried to put a little bit of variety in my wording . When you say: if you do your homework, it is never a gamble, I read that as you saying there is no risk, while in truth 1) there is always risk and 2)most investment decisions are much like a poker game. The best players/predictors will (probably) gain, those that are worse (or happily hold their fiat and don't realize they are playing) lose value. (If we get a bit more into it, ok not all investing is a zero-sum game as it will have an effect on the economy, but you get the gist of what I am saying). |
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For people who do their homework, it is never a gamble.
How about 'the butterfly effect' and 'chaos theory' ? No matter how prepared you are, you are never 100% sure. |
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OP, that sounds about right to me.
Trace, nice collection of data.
Didn't know market cap of Mastercard and Visa were so big compared to AAPL (thought AAPL would be an order of magnitude higher).
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I'm standing by my claim that if you sell under $45 you're dumb, under $44 you're crazy dumb.  I am not so sure we are in the clear yet. I would like to see it go up to $45.5 again. The stabilisation is of decent length already though.  What is this supposed to mean? |
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I'm standing by my claim that if you sell under $45 you're dumb, under $44 you're crazy dumb. I am not so sure we are in the clear yet. I would like to see it go up to $45.5 again. The stabilisation is of decent length already though. |
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Come on Max, you can't claim bitcoin appreciation is due to inflation . It might provide the incentive to buy, but we didn't have 200% inflation last year  . |
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I am at Olivia Plaza Hotel, Barcelona, Spain at the moment.
I have 12BTC in a wallet on my smartphone.
Why do you even own bitcoin? Seriously just sell them if you feel they are next to worthless, and stop clogging bitcointalk with your idiotic arguments.  He brought up the tulips, it pisses me off every time. |
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oh ok, yes, then I agree. An increasing market cap will allow new services to be viable.
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