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This is just great.
As a bitcoin market analyst, I think all ideas are very interesting, and particularly the 3rd one is probably the most urgent and the one with the biggest short term positive impact.
As much as I like the current bitcoin exchanges, they lack the trust backing in the "non-bitcoin" world. A true forex market, back by a trusted institution would probably make bitcoins much more believable.
my few bitcents of wisdom...
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yes, if only there were significant volumes.
There need to be stop loss orders possible on the big exchange MtGox for "Average Joe" who does not even know what a bot is.
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Yes, good news that the price seems to be going up!
I just wish I'd predicted the downturn before buying a bunch of BTC, literally the day before it happened... would have been better for the finances and the blood pressure.
I predicted the break towards 0.5 on my technical analysis. However, there is not yet the chance to do stop loss trading on any BTC exchange, which is making it impossible for people like you to protect against losses. This is what I meant in other threads: We need more professional exchanges, offering the proper instruments and tools. |
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genjix is the perfect example of what I mean.
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All,
as you observe, despite press coverage, bitcoin is on a decline (yes, exchange rates are not everything, but trust me this is crucial. If there won't be a continuous fund inflow into the bitcoin economy, the entire Bitcoin project may crash big time)
This is a negative spiral.
1. BTC exchange rates drop
2. Investors shy away
3. BTC exchange rate drops more
4. Miners are not profitable any more. They start selling
5. BTC exchange rate drops more..
6. BTC/USD soon will be where it started
7. Press coverage announces the death of this "geek" idea..
8. Maybe bitcoin can get up on its feet again,. but it is very tough after a big crash
This is not meant negative, but positive:
WE NEED PEOPLE DRIVING the BITCOIN project forward properly. And not only look at their own profit or debate hours in the forum about minor things.
They should (re)invest part of their income into MARKETING of bitcoins, CREATING new businesses, etc. in a much more sincere way. I know some people are doing this in a great way already, but it seems it is only a handful.
For instance, a professional operated and marketed exchange is one element that is desperately needed. An exchange that can handle big volumes and can be trusted by investors.
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properly working exchanges are desparately needed.
The current situation does not spark any trust with investors.
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My opinion is that this price drop is due to the inefficiency of exchanges to serve the demand for a longer time span, particularly MtGox.
I have seen people wanting to invest in EUR, and their bank transfers being delayed for a week now because the exchange relies on a single person. Liberty Reserve was down a few days. If you have a look at the marketplace forum and #bitcoin-otc channel, you will see many people explicitely buying MtGoxUSD which seems to confirm my statement.
I don’t think the MtGox price reflects the "true" market price at all because it’s so difficult to get money in.
This is the issue with relying upon a marketplace that represents a minority of the trade in question, but as far as I know, the MtGox spot price is the best metric of this kind that we have. Getting funds into and out of such markets have always been a limiting factor. Agree with you. And it is even more than that: The current rate of mining creates 7,000-10,000 bitcoins per day, 50,000 - 70,000 per week, 200,000 - 280,000 per month. This creates a lot of supply which, if not absorbed by buyers of bitcoins results in a lot of technical overhead pressure on BTC/fiat currencies. |
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catching a falling knife can be very dangerous
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And again, it is Monday (or at least in my time zone it will be in 26 min), and I have reset the market sentiment poll.
Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?
click on the poll above
Please VOTE
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I was persuaded after reading a little in here that ⓑ is a good option. - It is better readable than the capital version.
- It stands for "bit" rather than "byte", being the correct letter terminology-wise.
- It is not frequently used for other purposes.
- It represents the expression "bitcoin" by having the symbol for bit surrounded by a circle, making it look like a coin.
- It is already present in Unicode.
If 1 ⓑ keeps current value or higher, symbols for the smaller fractions may be required. mⓑ, µⓑ etc. may be an option, but are not single symbols. Not that I would care much, I'd be fine with that. Makes 100% sense to me. +1 |
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@bitcoincharts owner S3052:
I am not the owner of bitcoincharts. I am independent. tcatm is the owner and has asked my if i would post my analysis there which I happily accepted. Thank you for including my core statement and posting some clarifying words that distinguish forecast from technical analysis on past chart movements on your site. If there is a problematic effect, displaying the nature of the discussion alone should help.
(Though I kind of dislike how you try to then shake off the argument and my credibility using an a posteriori analysis of a correct trend forecast. But I guess that's the way such public discussions go.)
I really like your comments, and I did not want to create the perception that you are not credible. After seeing you posting more than the first thread, I see that you have expertise and I like the discussion. For perspective, we had a couple of newbees there trying to create scam-type of threads very often. But you are not one of them. I have revised my blog to not put you in the wrong spotlight. Hope this is fine now. I would be a fool to dance around a few cent in price if I expected a continuing rally to 5$ or 10$ realistic and probable; do your math on what chances I'd need to jump on.
This is what I am saying, we are on the same page. Currently, the market is in a sideways range and it might not be very wise to buy now within this congestion area. You may wait for a clear breakout. If a breakout happens, the upside is quite big, because as you say, the market is tiny and if significant funds flow in, it is not irrational to say that 2,5,10$ can be reached fast (10x higher). Recall when prices were in the 0.065$ congestion area in September 2010: Within 6 months, prices increased 15x. |
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Hi Everyone,
what would cause the BTC exchange rates to rise?
FUND INFLOWS INTO THE EXCHANGES from existing and / or new users. To make the BTC/USD exchange rate rise, the economy needs around 8000 BTCs worth of inflows every day (160 blocks per day * 50 = 8000 BTC). This of course assumes that all miners convert all back to USD regularly and dont save bitcoins at all, which is not 100% correct.
Still, there needs to be significant money inflows into BTCs regularly as we know that miners need to offset their costs and pay off hardware, pay electricity etc.
What could make BTC rates fall: no further money inflows make the BTC/USD rate fall on its own weight (because of the BTC inflation due to mining)
This means that ideally every current bitcoin users should convince another new user to start getting into bitcoins.
Perhaps we can start a tell-a-friend mechanism where there are incentives for existing users?
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