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I am not saying that I like this scenario, but you are right when saying that the most likely outcome is DOWN hard.
After being neutral (50/50) for two days, now its 80% likelihood for DOWN
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We will soon se how serious the person is who has the bid wall at 2.1 $. Selling into this wall is just starting. If this wall falls, we may enter another huge decline.
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All what it takes to drive btc prices up is a few investors buying btc with 200-300 k$ funds each.
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What I really mean is that bitcoin lacks either a big company that focuses on it or having some kind of association that does
Yes, I definitely agree on this. I see that biggest problem of bitcoiners is that they're too much focused on technologies and they're ignoring anything else, like marketing. Unfortunately I'm developer too and I many times failed in attempts of doing non-IT stuff in my projects :-), so I'm trying to do what I can and I hope that somebody else good in marketing will join us soon :-). Great, so we are 100% aligned. This is what I meant. I am quite experienced in marketing but currently lack the time to spend more time on it... |
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To Slush: Thanks for shedding light on this. I was probably over simplifying it. I have experience in a big company (many tens of thousands of employees), but not directly in the IT area. What I really mean is that bitcoin lacks either a big company that focuses on it or having some kind of association that does etc.. This could have avoided a lot of biased press coverage as there is no PR work going on, no dedicated advertising of bitcoin as such.. etc.[/list] |
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software tools and services and experienced developers improving everything every day
On the other hand I think that the "weakest hands" in the bitcoin system are the developers. And this happens because miners are strangling the developers. Bitcoin as an invention is one thing. Bitcoin as currently implemented is one of the most dysfunctional open source projects that ever existed. The not-invented-here mentality combined with the misanthropic attitude towards integration with the existing financial and accounting software is on the par with some of the worst-run government-subcontracted software projects. The result is glacial pace of progress in the actual software implementation. I tend to agree with the essence of this. This is probably the biggest problem with open source projects. While open source software might be great, open source projects like bitcoin do not work at all, and are probably worst than government projects. Why? Because there is no organizational structure, no clear goals, no clear and united strategies, no clear leadership, no clear decision making. Instead, many people duplicate work without knowing and / or going different directions. The bitcoin project is the best example of this theory. |
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Its still not that difficult to make money in this market. Looking at the charts, you dont even see any evidence for any cornering. Its just normal volatility. And its also normal that its gets more volatile on the way down.
I.e. you could have sold or shorted bitcoins around 25-30 $ (I issued a sell signal on Jun 12th with target dowon to at least 5 $) and fared quite well with it.
And currently, being on the short side is still a viable option.
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Its very unlikey that we will see a double bottom. It's more likey to see a big spike down before attempting a more sustainable reversal.
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The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.
This is what I have been saying. This person/group is getting a lot more coins by causing these swift drops, selling at the higher prices and buying at the low. Either that or they are manipulating the market to get some money out while maintaining their coin levels. I do not think this is someone cashing out but rather skimming off the top.
It would take a few additional highly capitalized traders / investors to show him that the game is over.
But it does not seem like a lot of new traders / investors are getting into bitcoins... |
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If the person(s) who have the 50,000 BTC bid on MtGox pull this out, prices will fall like a stone (or should I say falling knife)
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be careful not to get cut by the falling bitcoin knife
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Is it possible for us to work together to get the price back up to about 15-30?
Legally that is.
People just need to buy about 80,000 BTC to get the price to 4 $. I would then consider this a technical breakout and then BTCUSD would likely rise much further. Ideally, also 5 $ is cleared soon thereafter. |
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Althought many dream that this would remain like that, I can guarantee you that this is very temporary. We are set for huge volatility the next weeks, months and probably years to come.
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yeah.. this is life.... its ambiguous all the time...
I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negative AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)
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It is interesting that one can make many arguments for the bullish case and as many strong ones also for the bearish case. I believe not 60%, not 80% , but at least 95% in the bearish case for stocks. And this is not in any way going against you personally, but solely about different p.o.v's. we will see soon what has been the right call.
For me, I am short again the NDX since 2392 with huge leverage. So far so good :-)
But I will liquidate the short position above 2406. Not a lot to lose, but a lot to win if stocks dive. AAPL as leading stock (today down 10.8 $) has made a nice island gap and unless it will be filled, will lead stocks down hard. As you may have seen, I issued a sell on APPL right after the earnings at 405 $.
And... I am long USDCHF which shows a strong impulsive wave UP and this pair is a leading indicator for the stock market and the DXY. net, I disagree 100% with your bias :-))....
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if i'm right and we're forming a bull flag, then according to Elliott Wave, this would be wave 2 off the bottom with a big wave 3 up to follow which are typically the longest and strongest.
cypher,
on which time scale do you see a bull flag? |
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Correct. The financial crash that is just in its baby phase is not helpful for bitcoins. Instead, many people who could be investing in bitcoins are also heavily invested in stocks and / or precious metals. And as all assets crash, including Silver and to some extend even Gold, this reduces available risky capital left for bitcoin.
Bitcoin need to show greater strength vs. other assets first to attract again more investment.
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There are multiple options in the short term and this leads to a lot of uncertainty in the outlook.
This is why it is best to step back and let the market make a decision.
Long and mid term charts are still all pointing down .
A prudent investor would either wait until btcusd rises above 5$ or wait until the pattern becomes clearer.
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