Overall, there is probably not a strong correlation.
At the same time, in case many big players in the bitcoin market are also heavily invested in the stock market and other risky assets, when all these crash (which I believe will happen big time), then they may also need to convert BTC back to cash to compensate.
But as said, this is a small fraction of the players.
And even more likely, there can be huge money inflows from investors who abandon the stock market and precious metals when they see that BTC is more promising.
I.e. bitcoin prices have mid term upside back to the all time highs, which can be a 10x increase. Just an example. They wont get those returns with Gold, Silver, stocks.
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I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011. It is entirely possible that the downturn starts before xmas. Almost everyone expects a Santa rally, perhaps optimism is too high for this to materialize.
But anyway, if the plunge protection team (PPT) in the US is successful again to spark a Santa rally, in January this will be completely retraced.
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We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers
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I am happy to look into it if you like
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Just a question for OP:
Do you invest according to your own predictions?
I focus on providing the technical analysis and I am only exchanging BTC / USD occasionally to manage the income I receive from subscribers.
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short term is when we use hourly charts of typically past 10 days as basis fir our analysis.
The 4 - 5 $ zone could be reached within the next 10 days in principle. To keep This Outlook alive, BTCUSD should make strong progress toward this this week.
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Brilliant! :-)
By the way, more seriously, I do think that we will only have short-lived trading ranges in the months to come. btcusd will remain very volatile.
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Over 9000
where is the 9000-10000 button :-)
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It takes a bit to get used to it, I agree.
I also agree with some other posts that MtGox should now focus on making deposits and withdrawals MUCH FASTER and MUCH MORE RELIABLE.
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How are people feeling about GBP and NZD atm? I'm curious because I have interests in both.
NZD/EUR looks like if it is about to rally to new highs. Very bullish.
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this isnothing yet .
double digit btcusd values will easily be reached - not in a straight line, but in a stair step pattern
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The poll is reset again.
What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?
Up? Down? Same as now? Don't know?
Ever since I read somewhere that what people think the prices will do is often the opposite of what they really will do, I don't know how to vote any more. There's an urge to invert my vote. You are not completely wrong. Actually, the sentiment is very often a contrarian indicator.
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My novice guess would be to short the EUR/long the USD.
US$-denominated debt will likely contract faster than the Fed is printing.
I am short EUR/USD since 1.41 and keep that position. We may see 1.2 and lower in the next weeks and months
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sorry, may I ask you to do it again? I forgot to reset.
And as a benefit, I will issue a new sentiment analysis in the next days, making the link to the most likely direction of the bitcoin market.
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